• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사고 예측 모델

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Modeling feature inference in causal categories (인과적 범주의 속성추론 모델링)

  • Kim, ShinWoo;Li, Hyung-Chul O.
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.329-347
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    • 2017
  • Early research into category-based feature inference reported various phenomena in human thinking including typicality, diversity, similarity effects, etc. Later research discovered that participants' prior knowledge has an extensive influence on these sorts of reasoning. The current research tested the effects of causal knowledge on feature inference and conducted modeling on the results. Participants performed feature inference for categories consisted of four features where the features were connected either in common cause or common effect structure. The results showed typicality effects along with violations of causal Markov condition in common cause structure and causal discounting in common effect structure. To model the results, it was assumed that participants perform feature inference based on the difference between the probabilities of an exemplar with the target feature and an exemplar without the target feature (that is, $p(E_{F(X)}{\mid}Cat)-p(E_{F({\sim}X)}{\mid}Cat)$). Exemplar probabilities were computed based on causal model theory (Rehder, 2003) and applied to inference for target features. The results showed that the model predicts not only typicality effects but also violations of causal Markov condition and causal discounting observed in participants' data.

Flow Characteristics Analysis of the Decontamination Device with Mixing and Diffusion Using Radio-Isotopes Tracer (방사성 동위원소를 이용한 제염제 혼합확산장치의 유동특성분석)

  • Oh, Daemin;Kang, Sungwon;Kim, Youngsug;Jung, Sunghee;Moon, Jinho;Park, Jangguen
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.282-287
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was predicted the effects of mixing and diffusion due to the operation of the apparatus before the development of the mixed diffusion device for the decontamination absorbent to minimize the influence of contaminant inflow due to radiation accident. The tracer used for the flow characteristics was $^{68}Ga$, $^{99m}Tc$, which is a radioactive isotope, and 2 inch NaI radiation detector was used to detect it. The impeller of the decontamination mixed diffusion system applied to this study was made into three types and the mixing diffusion effect was compared. As a result of analyzing the flow characteristics of the radio-isotope with decontamination mixed diffusion device, mixing, diffusion and flow pattern were obtained. The radial mixing type impeller was able to diffuse to the water surface by the upflow flow, and the fin structure was adjusted for finding optimal conditions. The model 3 type consists of a fin guiding part and an auxiliary fin so that the diffusion speed is higher than that of other types of impellers. It also showed a short time to reach complete mixing.

A Running Stability Test of 1/5 Scaled Bogie using Small-Scaled Derailment Simulator (소형탈선시뮬레이터를 이용한 1/5 축소대차의 주행안정성 시험)

  • Eom, Beom-Gyu;Kang, Bu-Byoung;Lee, Hi-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2012
  • The dynamic stability of railway vehicle has been one of the important issues in railway safety. The dynamic simulator has been used in the study about the dynamic stability of railway vehicle and wheel/rail interface optimization. Especially, a small scale simulator has been widely used in the fundamental study in the laboratory instead of full scale roller rig which is not cost effective and inconvenient to achieve diverse design parameters. But the technique for the design of the small scale simulator about the dynamic characteristics of the wheel-rail system and the bogie system has not been well developed in Korea. Therefore, the research using the small-scaled derailment simulator and the 1/5 scaled bogie has been conducted. In this paper, we did running stability test of 1/5 scaled bogie using small-scaled derailment simulator. Also, for the operation of the small scaled simulator, it is required to investigate the performance and characteristics of the simulator system. This could be achieved by a comparative study between an analysis and an experiment. This paper presented the analytical model which could be used for verifying the test results and understanding of the physical behavior of the dynamic system comprising the small- scaled derailment simulator and the 1/5 scaled bogie.

A Study on the Application Scheme of Fire Identification Considering the Heat Release Rate Characteristics of Inflammable Material (가연물의 발열량 특성을 고려한 화재감식 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Jung-Ki;Oh, Jin-Hee;You, Woo-Jun;Ryou, Hong-Sun;Choi, Don-Mook
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.52-57
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    • 2014
  • The present study suggests the fundamental method for the prediction time of the fire origin by analyzing the combustion phenomenon of inflammable material in the building structure. The heat release rate (HRR) with time variant is evaluated for the interphone as a inflammable material, which is opted from the fire incidents in the stairwell. the fire dynamics simulator (FDS ver. 6.1) is applied in order to analyze the difference of the smoke inflow time to the downstair from the fire event area with various fire pattern. The results show that the maximum inflow time difference for the case of the interphone made from ABS materials is about 4.93 times with the input conditions of heat flux values and the environment in the FDS for the fixed stairwell which composed of total volume $291.3m^3$, floorage $23.3m^2$ and the height of each floor 2.5 m. This research can be practical information for the application method of simulation scheme with experimental data to the fire Identification.

TFWT and OBT Concentrations in Soybean Plants Exposed to HTO Vapor at Different Growth Stages (콩의 생육단계별 HTO 증기 피폭에 따른 작물체내 TFWT 및 OBT 농도)

  • Lim, K.M.;Choi, Y.H.;Lee, W.Y.;Park, H.G.;Kang, H.S.;Choi, H.J.;Lee, H.S.
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2004
  • Soybean plants were exposed to HTO vapor in an exposure box for 1 hour at different growth stages. Relative concentrations of TFWT at the end of exposure (percent ratios of TFWT concentrations to mean HTO concentrations in air moisture in the box during exposure) decreased on the whole in the order of leaf > shell > seed > stem with the highest values of 40.2% and 6.4% for leaf and stem, respectively. TFWT concentrations reduced by factors of several thousands to several hundred-thousands from the end of exposure till the harvest. The reduction factor decreased in the order of leaf > shell > seed > stem. Relative OBT concentrations at harvest (ratios of the OBT concentration in the dry plant part at harvest to the initial leaf TFWT concentration, ml $g^{-1}$) were in the range of $2.2{\times}10^{-5}{\sim}9.5{\times}10^{-3}$ for seeds being the highest when the exposure was performed at the actively seed-developing stage. The exposure time-dependent variation in the OBT concentration was much greater in seeds and shells than in leaves and stems. It was indicated that OBT would contribute to almost all the radiation dose due to the consumption of soybean seeds in most cases after an acute exposure of growing plants to HTO vapor. Present results are applicable to establishing and validating soybean $^3H$ models for an acute accidental release of HTO.

Influence of Mixture Non-uniformity on Methane Explosion Characteristics in a Horizontal Duct (수평 배관의 메탄 폭발특성에 있어서 불균일성 혼합기의 영향)

  • Ou-Sup Han;Yi-Rac Choi;HyeongHk Kim;JinHo Lim
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2024
  • Fuel gases such as methane and propane are used in explosion hazardous area of domestic plants and can form non-uniform mixtures with the influence of process conditions due to leakage. The fire-explosion risk assessment using literature data measured under uniform mixtures, damage prediction can be obtained the different results from actual explosion accidents by gas leaks. An explosion characteristics such as explosion pressure and flame velocity of non-uniform gas mixtures with concentration change similar to that of facility leak were examined. The experiments were conducted in a closed 0.82 m long stainless steel duct with observation recorded by color high speed camera and piezo pressure sensor. Also we proposed the quantification method of non-uniform mixtures from a regression analysis model on the change of concentration difference with time in explosion duct. For the non-uniform condition of this study, the area of flame surface enlarged with increasing the concentration non-uniform in the flame propagation of methane and was similar to the wrinkled flame structure existing in a turbulent flame. The time to peak pressure of methane decreased as the non-uniform increased and the explosion pressure increased with increasing the non-uniform. The ranges of KG (Deflagration index) of methane with the concentration non-uniform were 1.30 to 1.58 [MPa·m/s] and the increase rate of KG was 17.7% in methane with changing from uniform to non-uniform.

A Study on the Overall Economic Risks of a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Nuclear Power Plant Using the Delphi Method (델파이 기법을 이용한 원전사고의 종합적인 경제적 리스크 평가)

  • Jang, Han-Ki;Kim, Joo-Yeon;Lee, Jai-Ki
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2008
  • Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

Evaluation of Maritime Safety Technology for Official Development Assistance (ODA) (국제협력사업 추진을 위한 해사안전기술 평가 연구)

  • Oh, Se-Woong;Jeon, Tae-Byung;Lee, Moon-Jin;Suh, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Dong-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2010
  • IMO(International Maritime Organization) and the Shipping World rave complied with various kinds of international regulations for maritime safety and marine environmental protection, but the main reason of maritime accidents is that developing countries cannot implement maritime safety related regulations. Although Korea has been a member of the "A group" council of IMO, maritime technology transfer records of Korea are not good. To promote the project of official development assistance in Korea, it is required to select the technology which has a high degree of importance in the fields of maritime safety and has a high degree of demand on the transfer to developing countries, and to concentrate on the selected technology. So, it is necessary to draw valuation factors for maritime safety technology and to decide the priority in order among maritime safety technologies on the basis of valuation factors. Because the weights which show the degree of importance among valuation factors are different from factor to factor, interdependent relationship between factors should be considered on evaluation. In this study, the valuation factors were divided into three groups as the maturity of maritime safety technology, the promotion probability of projects and the degree of importance of technology, and the detailed factors of each group were drawn. A model which used Fuzzy AHP and limiting probability to consider the weights of importance and correlation among valuation factors was developed. To adopt this model, nine types of maritime safety technology in the field of maritime safety information were selected and points were scored for each technology through evaluation. In conclusion, first, ENC related technology was scored to be the highest as 0.0139. Second, the point of ship monitoring technology was scored as 0.0133. Last, oil spill response technology was scored as 0.0132.

Die dialektische Aporetik bei Aristoteles und ihre methodologische Funktion (아리스토텔레스에게서 아포리아의 변증적 탐구술과 그 방법론적 기능)

  • Lee, Jae-hyun
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.126
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    • pp.263-293
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    • 2013
  • Die vorliegende Abhandlung beachtet die methodologische $N{\ddot{u}}tzlichkeit$ der Dialektik $f{\ddot{u}}r$ die philosophische $Wissenschaftst{\ddot{a}}tigkeit$ des Aristoteles in einer besonderen Aufmerksamkeit auf den Begriff "${\delta}{\iota}{\alpha}{\pi}o{\rho}{\varepsilon}{\iota}{\nu}$". Bei Aristoteles bedeutet "${\delta}{\iota}{\alpha}{\pi}o{\rho}{\varepsilon}{\iota}{\nu}$" 'das durchaus $gr{\ddot{u}}ndliche$ Untersuchen einer Aporie', und eine solche Untersuchungsweise folgt der Dialektik. Deshalb beabsichtige ich zuerst, durch eine Begriffsanalyse und - interpretation von "${\delta}{\iota}{\alpha}{\pi}o{\rho}{\varepsilon}{\iota}{\nu}$" die dialektische Aporetik zu bestimmen als eine Argumentationsmethode nicht nur in einer dialogischen, sondern auch in einer nicht-dialogischen Situation. Besonders will ich einen methodologischen Grund $daf{\ddot{u}}r$ suchen, dass ein allein Forschender in der nicht-dialogischen Situation die dialektische Aporetik verwendet, indem ich einen Text von "De caelo" II 13, 294b 6~13 interpretiere. $N{\ddot{a}}mlich$ betont Aristoteles in Bezug auf den Durchgang der $Wissenschaftst{\ddot{a}}tigkeit$ eine Forderung der selbstkritischen Haltung, die der allein Forschende sich selbst seine Untersuchung in $R{\ddot{u}}cksicht$ auf die anderen Untersuchungen und auch auf die vorhersehbaren Hypothesen ${\ddot{u}}berpr{\ddot{u}}fen$ und verifizieren, um die aus seiner Untersuchung zu entdeckenden Aporien auf die dialektische Weise zu $l{\ddot{o}}sen$. Und diese Position von Aristoteles kann der wichtige Grund $daf{\ddot{u}}r$ sein, den fachsprachlichen Sinn von "${\delta}{\iota}{\alpha}{\pi}o{\rho}{\varepsilon}{\iota}{\nu}$" als auch den wissenschaftlichen Sinn der dialektischen Untersuchung der Aporie richtig verstehen und $erkl{\ddot{a}}ren$ zu $k{\ddot{o}}nnen$. Zuletzt bin ich in der Absicht, die dialektische Aporetik und ihre Funktion in drei Modeln zu formulieren und einige Beispiele $f{\ddot{u}}r$ jedes Model vorzustellen, um zu zeigen, auf welche Art und Weise Aristoteles die dialektische Aporetik $f{\ddot{u}}r$ den Lauf seiner Theoriebildung in der Tat anwendet. Durch solchen Versuch $w{\ddot{u}}nsche$ ich, dass meine Untersuchung ${\ddot{u}}ber$ die dialektische Aporetik etwas besseres $Verst{\ddot{a}}ndnis$ $f{\ddot{u}}r$ die wissenschaftliche Bedeutung der aristotelischen Dialektik anbieten $k{\ddot{o}}nnte$, und auch dass diese Studie als bedeutsame Basisdaten zu einer noch tieferen Forschung und $Verst{\ddot{a}}ndigung$ ${\ddot{u}}ber$ die philosophische Haltung und Methode des Aristoteles betrachtet werden $k{\ddot{o}}nnte$.

Development of a Value Inquiry Model in Biology Education (생물교육에서의 가치 탐구 모형 개발)

  • Jeong, Eun-Young;Kim, Young-Soo
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.582-598
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    • 2000
  • There are many bioethical issues in line with the rapid advance of biology. In this situation, it is important for students to make a rational decision on value problem. In this study 'value inquiry in biology education' is defined as 'the process of rational value judgement and wise decision-making in the biology-related value problem' and the model was developed. To develop the model, value inquiry models were reviewed. Value clarification model is helpful for the formation of the personal value as the process of individual value inquiry, but it isn't helpful for clarifying the value conflicts. Value analysis model focuses on the rational solution of value problem through the logical procedure. But it has the limitations that overemphasizing the logical and systematic aspects results in devaluating students' affective aspects. So it is necessary to coordinate psychological and logical aspects of value inquiry. In this regard, the model was developed, including identifying and clarifying value problem, understanding biological knowledge related to conflict situation, considering on the related persons, searching for alternatives, predicting the consequences of each alternative, selecting the alternative, evaluating the alternative, and final value judgement and affirming it. The educational objectives of value inquiry were selected in consideration of the ability to carry out the steps of the developed model. And the selected contents were animal duplication, test-tube baby, genetic engineering, growth hormone injection problem, brain death, organ transplant, animal to be experimented and were organized on the basis of the 6th and the 7th science curriculum. And the suitable instructional models for the value inquiry education were selected: bioethical value clarification decision-making model, group presentation according to the value analysis model, role play and debate, and discussion through web forum. And the interview was considered to be suitable to evaluate the students' value inquiry ability and the rubric was made to evaluate the attainment of the educational objectives for value inquiry.

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