• Title/Summary/Keyword: 사건수목 분석

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Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Gas Plant Using Fault Tree-based Bayesian Network (고장수목 기반 베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 가스 플랜트 시스템의 확률론적 안전성 평가)

  • Se-Hyeok Lee;Changuk Mun;Sangki Park;Jeong-Rae Cho;Junho Song
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.273-282
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been widely used to evaluate the seismic risk of nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, studies on seismic PSA for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants, have been scarce. This is because the major disasters to which these process plants are vulnerable include explosions, fires, and release (or dispersion) of toxic chemicals. However, seismic PSA is essential for the plants located in regions with significant earthquake risks. Seismic PSA entails probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), event tree analysis (ETA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and fragility analysis for the structures and essential equipment items. Among those analyses, ETA can depict the accident sequence for core damage, which is the worst disaster and top event concerning NPPs. However, there is no general top event with regard to process plants. Therefore, PSA cannot be directly applied to process plants. Moreover, there is a paucity of studies on developing fragility curves for various equipment. This paper introduces PSA for gas plants based on FTA, which is then transformed into Bayesian network, that is, a probabilistic graph model that can aid risk-informed decision-making. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a gas plant, and several decision-making cases are demonstrated.

인간신뢰도분석에서의 인간행위 의존성 평가: 암모니아 저장시설의 누출사고 평가 예

  • 강대일;이윤환;진영호
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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    • 1998.11a
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    • pp.219-224
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    • 1998
  • 확률론적 안전성 평가(Probabilistic Safety Assessment PSA)나 정량적인 위험도 평가(Quantitative Risk Assessment: QRA)에서 인간신뢰도분석(human reliability analysis)은 인간행위를 기기처럼 생각하여 전체 시스템의 안전성에 중요한 초기사건(initiating event) 이전이나 초기사건 이후 또는 초기사건을 유발하는 인간행위를 파악하고 정량화하여, 확률론적 평가의 논리구조인 사건 및 고장수목(event tree 및 fault tree)이나 사고경위 단절집합 (accident sequence outsets)에 포함시키는 것이다. (중략)

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A Large Dry PWR Containment Response Analysis for Postulated Severe Accidents (가상적 중대사고에 대한 대형건식 가압경수로 격납용기의 반응해석)

  • Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.292-309
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    • 1987
  • A large dry PWR containment response analysis for postulated severe accidents was performed as part of the Zion Risk Rebaselining study for input to the U.S. NRC's "Reactor Risk Reference Document," NUREG-1150. The Methodologies used in the present work were developed as part of the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) at Sandia National Laboratory specifically for the Surry Plant, but they were extrapolated to Zion. Major steps of the quantification of risk from a nuclear power plant are first outlined. Then, the methodologies of containment response analysis for severe accidents used for Zion are described in detail: major features of the containment event tree (CET) analysis codes and CET quantification procedures are summarized. In addition, plant specific features important to containment response analysis are presented along with the containment loading and performance issues included in the present uncertainty analysis. Finally, a brief summary of the results of deterministic and statistical containment event tree analysis is presented to provide a perspective on the large dry PWR containment response for postulated severe accidents.accidents.

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DYLAM-3를 이용한 부분충수 운전중 노심노출사고 발생빈도의 평가

  • 김도형;정창현;제무성
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.05a
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    • pp.444-449
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    • 1997
  • 본 논문에서는 기존의 PSA기법인 사건수목/고장수목의 단점을 보완한 동적 신뢰성 평가도구인 DYLAM방법론을 이용해서 참조원전$^{[1]}$ 소외전원 상실사고시 노심노출 사고발생 빈도를 평가하였다. 부분충수 운전시 발생될 수 있는 노심의 노출을 예방하기 위한 운전원의 여러가지 조치들의 오류가능성애 대한 민감도 계산을 수행하였다. 민감도 분석의 결과 일차 충전 및 유출운전 (Feed and B띤) 인적오류가 노심노출 사고발생 빈도에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었으며 정지생각계통 기능회복을 위한 조치는 상대적으로 적은 영향을 끼치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 정지/저출력으로 운전하는 부분충수 운전시 전 출력에 비하여 노심노출올 무시할 수 없음도 보여주었다.

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Bayesian Network-based Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Multi-Hazard of Earthquake-Induced Fire and Explosion (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 지진 유발 화재・폭발 복합재해 확률론적 안전성 평가)

  • Se-Hyeok Lee;Uichan Seok;Junho Song
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.205-216
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    • 2024
  • Recently, seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods have been developed for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants. The framework originated from the PSA of nuclear power plants, which aims to assess the risk of reactor core damage. The original PSA method was modified to adopt the characteristics of a process plant whose purpose is continuous operation without shutdown. Therefore, a fault tree, whose top event is shut down, was constructed and transformed into a Bayesian Network (BN), a probabilistic graph model, for efficient risk-informed decision-making. In this research, the fault tree-based BN from the previous research is further developed to consider the multi-hazard of earthquake-induced fire and explosion (EQ-induced F&E). For this purpose, an event tree describing the occurrence of fire and explosion from a release is first constructed and transformed into a BN. And then, this BN is connected to the previous BN model developed for seismic PSA. A virtual plot plan of a gas plant is introduced as a basis for the construction of the specific EQ-induced F&E BN to test the proposed BN framework. The paper demonstrates the method through two examples of risk-informed decision-making. In particular, the second example verifies how the proposed method can establish a repair and retrofit strategy when a shutdown occurs in a process plant.

A Analysis on the Relations among Characters shown in SBS Wednesday and Thursday Dramas -Focusing on the Greimas' Actantial Model- (SBS 수목드라마에서 나타난 등장인물 관계분석 -그레마스 행위소 모델 중심으로-)

  • Lim, Woon-Joo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.481-486
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to analyze how a variety of relations created by the actions of characters shown in SBS Wednesday and Thursday dramas are communicated by using Greimas' actantial model. This study analyzed the sparsity structure that the subject have in relations between the subject, and a desire structure that the subject have will appear if we look into the interactive and binding relation between the subject and the object in the process of solving those problems. In the relations between the subject and originator, the role of originator in the dramas was limited when his or her character is established as a poor character weaker than the subject and the one to be protected, whereas he or she was more authoritative than the subject in the structure that originator shares a role as an antagonist. Objectors shown in three works gave help to the solution of incident after all by turning coat as another cooperators of the subject and the object, showing a tendency to reach maturity rather than being unhappy.

가압 경수로의 저출력/정지 확률론적 안전성 평가를 위한 인간신뢰도분석 절차서 개발

  • 강대일;김길유
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.765-771
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    • 1997
  • 인간신뢰도분석 절차인 SHARP(Systematic Human Action Reliability Procedure)와 인간행위 정량화 방법인 THERP(Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction)를 토대로 하고 원자력발전소의 저출력/정지 운전의 특징적인 상황을 반영하여 가압 경수로의 저출력/정지운전의 PSA를 위한 인간신뢰도분석 절차서를 개발하였다. 개발된 인간신뢰도분석 절차서의 주요사항은 다음과 같다; 1) 원자력발전소의 이상사태에 대응하는 운전원 행위는 두 개의 기본사건인 진단실패와 수행실패 사건으로 모델링 한다. 2) 절차서에 없는 행위이라도 일부 운전원이 그 행위에 대한 절차와 조건을 알고 있으면 그 행위에 대해 성공가능성을 고려한다. 3) 인간신뢰도분석시 본 연구에서 개발된 표(work sheet)의 사용으로 인간행위 정량화 과정에 대한 타당성 및 신뢰성을 제고시키고 정량화과정을 쉽게 추적할 수 있다. 4) 인간신뢰도분석자의 판단이 필요한 부분에 결정수목을 사용하기 때문에 인간신뢰도 분석 시 개입될 수 있는 분석자의 주관성을 일정부분 배제할 수 있고 일관된 인간신뢰도분석을 수행 할 수 있다.

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Importance Analysis of High Pressure Safety Injection System to CDF of Yonggwang units 3\ulcorner\ulcorner4 (영광 1,2호기 고압안전주입계통 중요도 분석)

  • 조성환;김명기;서미로
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Energy Engineering kosee Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.159-165
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    • 1998
  • The RCM strategies are considered as an effective maintenance tool in nuclear power plants to allocate limited resource efficiently. In this paper, the importances of HPSI system on the CDF were analyzed with PSA model of Yonggwang units 1,2. The HPSI system was chosen because it is of one of the pilot system for the study of Yonggwang units 1,2 RCM. With the remodeling of the HPSI system, the total CDF of 16 initiating events was quantified and the importance of 74 basic events of HPSI was analyzed.

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A Study on the Influence Diagrams for the Application to Containment Performance Analysis (격납용기 성능해석을 위한 영향도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Joon-Won;Jae, Moon-Sung;Chun, Moon-Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 1996
  • Influence diagram method is applied to containment performance analysis of Young-Gwang 3&4 in an effort to overcome some drawbacks of current containment performance analysis method. Event tee methodology has been adopted as a containment performance analysis method. There are, however, some drawbacks on event tree methodology. This study is to overcome three major drawbacks of the current containment performance analysis method : 1) Event tree cannot express dependency between events explicitly. 2) Accident Progression Event Tree (APET) cannot represent entire containment system. 3) It is difficult to consider decision making problem. To resolve these problems, influence diagrams, is proposed. In the present ok, the applicability of the influence diagrams has been demonstrated for YGN 3&4 containment performance analysis and accident management strategy assessments of this study are in good agreement with those of YGN 3&4 IPE. Sensitivity analysis has been peformed to identify relative important variables for each early containment failure, late containment and basemat melt-though. In addition, influence diagrams are used to assess two accident management strategies : 1) RCS depressurization, 2) cavity flooding. It is shown that influence diagrams can be applied to the containment performance analysis.

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Analytic study on Rhizome by Gilles Deleuze : Focusing on the Film (들뢰즈의 리좀 모델 분석 : 영화 <엘리펀트>를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Taewoo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze and illustrate 'Rhizome', a postmodern speculation system based on de-subjectivity and decentralization, presented by Gilles Deleuze. He borrowed the word rhizome, an originally botanical term meaning a horizontal stem under the surface of the earth, to counteract the dominating system grounded on binary, root-tree structure. The study then criticizes the early movements of de-subjectivity with molecular-biological and evolutionary evidences, and proves that these evidences can only be characterized by chance and nomadism, which are the key elements that constitute Rhizome. As a practical example of Rhizome, the study analyzes the film by Gus Van Sant, and demonstrates that both his various cinematic experiments and the result bear the same characteristics as Rhizome.