• Title/Summary/Keyword: 빈도비 모델

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Development on Model for Checkdam Location Selection (GIS기법을 이용한 사방댐 입지선정 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Heung;Jung, Hea-Reyn;Park, Sang-Heyn;Ma, Ho-Seop;Park, Jae-Hyeon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1817-1821
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서의 지리정보시스템(GIS)을 이용한 사방댐 입지선정모델 개발은 산사태 발생 예측을 위한 사면안정성 평가 기준을 개발하여 사방댐 지점을 선정하기 위하여 체계적으로 표준화된 시스템을 구축하는 것이 목표이며, 2002년 태풍 '루사'와 2003년 태풍 '매미'에 의하여 토석류와 산사태가 발생한 서부경남 지역의 38개 지점에 대하여 항공사진 수집 및 현장조사를 수행하고, 산사태 발생에 관계되는 강우, 지형, 지질 및 토양, 임상 등을 인자로서 규정하였다. 연구결과 서부경남지역에서 발생한 산사태는 지리산, 가야산, 좌굴산 등 EL. 500m 이상의 비교적 고도가 높은 산악지역에서 지형성 집중호우에 의하여 발생하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 강우량과 산사태의 상관분석결과 시강우량 70mm 이상 및 누가강우량 230mm 이상에서 산사태의 발생빈도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 산사태 발생지점에서의 고도(평균해수면 기준)와 능선의 고도와의 비를 백분율로 계산하여 빈도를 살펴보면 산사태 발생지점이 능선의 90% 이상의 고도에서 산사태의 발생빈도가 53%로 가장 높고, 80-90%는 21%, 70-80% 16%의 순으로 산사태 발생빈도가 감소하고 있으며, 고도가 더욱 낮아져 산사태 발생지점이 60% 이하로 내려가면 산사태 발생빈도는 급격히 감소한다. 예를 들어 능선의 고도가 1000m일 경우 900m 이상의 고도(90% 이상)에서 산사태 발생빈도가 가장 높고 600m 이하의 고도(70% 이하)에서는 발생빈도가 급격히 저하하는 것으로 나타났다. 산사태 발생지점의 표면 굴곡도에 따른 산사태의 발생빈도는 대부분의 평행사면에서 74%, 약간 오목사면에서 26%가 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 각 지구의 지질 및 토양별 산사태 발생빈도는 화성암계열의 지질 및 자갈/암괴 섞인 토사의 토양에서 발생하는 것으로 분석되었고, $34-40^{\circ}$ 사면경사에서 40%, $26-34^{\circ}$ 사면경사에서 26%, $26^{\circ}$ 이하의 사면경사에서 22%가 주로 발생하였으며, $40^{\circ}$ 이상의 높은 사면경사에서는 극히 미미하였다. 또한 임상 기준으로는 침엽수림에서 주로 발생하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 이상의 결과를 기초로 매우 안정, 안정, 부분적 안정, 불안정, 매우 불안정, 위험 지역으로 구분하고, 평가한 결과는 불안정 33개소, 매우 불안정 5개소 등 38개소 지점 모두에 사방댐 설치가 필요한 것으로 분석되었다.

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Performance Comparison of Acoustic Modeling Technique (음소 모델링 방식들의 성능 비교)

  • 송명규
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.06e
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    • pp.377-380
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    • 1998
  • HMM 기반의 음성 인식기를 구현하는데 있어서 모델의 복잡도와 제한된 훈련 데이터 사이의 균형을 유지하는 것은 중요한 문제이다. 중간규모 또는 대용량 어휘 인식 시스템은 정교한 모델을 얻기 위해서 문맥종속 음소 모델링이 필수적이다. 그러나, 제한된 훈련 데이터로는 발생 가능한 모든 context를 포함하기가 어렵고, 더구나 훈련 데이터에서 관찰된 context중에서도 그 관찰빈도가 낮은 것이 많아서 신뢰성 있는 문맥종속 모델들을 얻기에는 여전히 어려움이 따른다. 또한 경우에 따라서는 계산량의 감축을 위하여 모델 규모를 축소시킬 필요도 생긴다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 본 논문에서는 unit reduction 방법들과 state tying을 이용한 방법들의 성능을 실험을 통해 비교한다. 고립단어 인식 실험결과 state tying을 이용한 방법이 unit reduction에 비하여 우수함을 확인 할 수 있었다.

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Dynamic Characterization of Backpulsing Hollow Fiber Module System (역충격형 중공사모듈의 동특성 연구)

  • 노수홍;박상현;장진호
    • Membrane Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.14-21
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    • 2001
  • Rapid backpulsing to reduce membrane fouling of hollow fiber ultrafiltration module (polyacrylonitrile with 50000 l'vlWCO, 1.4 rom OD and 0,9 mm ID) was studied with latex solutions. Values estimated by a theoretical model were compared with the ones obtained from the systems with or without backpulsing, Specific Cake resistance, time consUmt for cake growth, diffusion coefficient, and the rate constants of fnur fouling models; the complete, intermediate. standard blocking and cake filtration were calculated to obtain the theoretical values. High frequency backpulsing gave net increase of fluxes by 40~120%. Fluxes predicted by the model were in good agreement with experimental ones within 14% error bound, The optimum backpulsing strength was acquired at 20% in the ranges of 20~40% strength and the optimum frequcncv was acquired at 2 Hz in the ranges of 0.67~3 Hz.

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Phase-based Model Using Web Documents for Korean Unknown Word Recognition (웹문서를 이용한 단계별 한국어 미등록어 인식 모델)

  • Park, So-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.1898-1904
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    • 2009
  • Recently, real documents such as newspapers as well as blogs include newly coined words such as "Wikipedia". However, most previous information processing technologies cannot deal with these newly coined words because they construct their dictionaries based on materials acquired during system development. In this paper, we propose a model to automatically recognize Korean unknown words excluded from the previously constructed dictionary. The proposed model consists of an unknown noun recognition phase based on full text analysis, an unknown verb recognition phase based on web document frequency, and an unknown noun recognition phase based on web document frequency. The proposed model can recognize accurately the unknown words occurred once and again in a document by the full text analysis. Also, the proposed model can recognize broadly the unknown words occurred once in the document by using web documents. Besides, the proposed model fan recognize both a Korean unknown verb, which syllables can be changed from its base form by inflection, and a Korean unknown noun, which syllables are not changed in any eojeol. Experimental results shows that the proposed model improves precision 1.01% and recall 8.50% as compared with a previous model.

Analysis and Prediction for Spatial Distribution of Functional Feeding Groups of Aquatic Insects in the Geum River (금강 수계 수서곤충 섭식기능군의 공간분포 분석 및 예측)

  • Kim, Ki-Dong;Park, Young-Jun;Nam, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.99-118
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study is to define a correlation between spatial distribution characteristics of FFG(Functional Feeding Groups) of aquatic insects and related environmental factors in the Geum River based on the theory of RCC(River Continuum Concept). For that objective we had used SMRA(Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis) method to analyze close relationship between the distribution of aquatic insects and the physical and chemical factors that may affect their inhabiting environment in the study area. And then, a probabilistic method named Frequency Ratio Model(FRM) and spatial analysis function of GIS were applied to produce a predictive distribution map of biota community considering their distribution characteristics according to the environmental factors as related variables. As a result of SMRA, the values of decision coefficient for factors of elevation, stream width, flow velocity, conductivity, temperature and percentage of sand showed higher than 0.5. Therefore these 6 environmental factors were considered as major factors that might affect the distribution characteristics of aquatic insects. Finally, we had calculated RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between the predicted distribution map and prior survey database from other researches to verify the result of this study. The values of RMSE were calculated from 0.1892 to 0.4242 according to each FFG so we could find out a high reliability of this study. The results of this study might be used to develop a new estimation method for aquatic ecosystem with macro invertebrate community and also be used as preliminary data for conservation and restoration of stream habitats.

Molecular Simulation Studies for Penetrable-Sphere Model: II. Collision Properties (침투성 구형 모델에 관한 분자 전산 연구: II. 충돌 특성)

  • Kim, Chun-Ho;Suh, Soong-Hyuck
    • Polymer(Korea)
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.513-519
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    • 2011
  • Molecular simulations via the molecular dynamics method have been carried out to investigate the dynamic collision properties of penetrable-sphere model fluids. The collision frequencies, the mean free paths, the angle distributions of the hard-type reflection and the soft-type penetration, and the effective packing fractions are computed over a wide range of the packing fraction ${\phi}$ and the repulsive energy ${\varepsilon}^*$. The soft-type collisions are dominated for lower repulsive energy systems, while the hardtype collisions for higher repulsive energy systems. Very interestingly, the ratio of the soft-type (or, the hard-type) collision frequency to the total collision frequency is directly related with the Boltzmann factor of acceptance (or rejection) probabilities in the canonical ensemble Monte Carlo calculations. Such dynamic collision properties are shown to be restricted for highly repulsive and dense systems of ${\varepsilon}^*{\geqq}3.0 $and ${\phi}{\geqq}0.7$, indicating the cluster forming structures in the penetrable-sphere model.

Prospect of extreme precipitation in North Korea using an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (앙상블 경험적 모드분해법을 활용한 북한지역 극한강수량 전망)

  • Jung, Jinhong;Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.10
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    • pp.671-680
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    • 2019
  • Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.

Study on Landslide using GIS and Remote Sensing at the Kangneung Area($\textrm{I}$) -Relationship Analysis between Landslide Location and Related Factors (GIS와 원격탐사를 이용한 강릉지역 산사태 연구($\textrm{I}$) -산사태 발생 위치와 영향 인자와의 상관관계 분석)

  • 이명진;이사로;원중선
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.425-436
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    • 2004
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial relationship between the landslides occurred by typhoon, Rusa in 2002 and geospatial dataset. Landslide locations were detected using satellite image and field survey. Topogra-phy, soil, forest, geology and land use data sets were constructed as a spatial database in GIS. From the database, slope, aspect, curvature, water system, type of topography, texture, material, drainage, effective thickness of soil, type, age, diameter, density of wood, lithology, lineament of geology, land use and lineament were used as the land-slide occurrence factors. Using a frequence ratio model, the spatial relationships between the landslides and the factors were extracted. The spatial relationships is helpful to explain the characteristics of the landslide, and to make landslide susceptibility map.

Effective Drought Prediction Based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반 효과적인 가뭄예측)

  • Kim, Kyosik;Yoo, Jae Hwan;Kim, Byunghyun;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.326-326
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    • 2021
  • 장기간에 걸쳐 넓은 지역에 대해 발생하는 가뭄을 예측하기위해 많은 학자들의 기술적, 학술적 시도가 있어왔다. 본 연구에서는 복잡한 시계열을 가진 가뭄을 전망하는 방법 중 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법과 실시간으로 가뭄을 예측하는 비시나리오 기반의 방법 등을 이용하여 미래 가뭄전망을 실시했다. 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법으로는, 3개월 GCM(General Circulation Model) 예측 결과를 바탕으로 2009년도 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) 가뭄지수를 산정하여 가뭄심도에 대한 단기예측을 실시하였다. 또, 통계학적 방법과 물리적 모델(Physical model)에 기반을 둔 확정론적 수치해석 방법을 이용하여 비시나리오 기반 가뭄을 예측했다. 기존 가뭄을 통계학적 방법으로 예측하기 위해서 시도된 대표적인 방법으로 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델의 예측에 대한 한계를 극복하기위해 서포트 벡터 회귀(support vector regression, SVR)와 웨이블릿(wavelet neural network) 신경망을 이용해 SPI를 측정하였다. 최적모델구조는 RMSE(root mean square error), MAE(mean absolute error) 및 R(correlation Coefficient)를 통해 선정하였고, 1-6개월의 선행예보 시간을 갖고 가뭄을 전망하였다. 그리고 SPI를 이용하여, 마코프 연쇄(Markov chain) 및 대수선형모델(log-linear model)을 적용하여 SPI기반 가뭄예측의 정확도를 검증하였으며, 터키의 아나톨리아(Anatolia) 지역을 대상으로 뉴로퍼지모델(Neuro-Fuzzy)을 적용하여 1964-2006년 기간의 월평균 강수량과 SPI를 바탕으로 가뭄을 예측하였다. 가뭄 빈도와 패턴이 불규칙적으로 변하며 지역별 강수량의 양극화가 심화됨에 따라 가뭄예측의 정확도를 높여야 하는 요구가 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 복잡하고 비선형성으로 이루어진 가뭄 패턴을 기상학적 가뭄의 정도를 나타내는 표준강수증발지수(SPEI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)인 월SPEI와 일SPEI를 기계학습모델에 적용하여 예측개선 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

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Shallow-water Design Waves at Gangreung Beach through the Analysis of Long-term Measured Wave Data and Numerical Simulation Using Deepwater Wave Conditions (장기 파랑관측자료 분석 및 천해파 수치실험에 의한 강릉 해역의 천해설계파)

  • Jeong, Weon Mu;Jun, Ki Cheon;Kim, Gunwoo;Oh, Sang-Ho;Ryu, Kyong-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.343-351
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    • 2012
  • In this study, shallow-water design waves are calculated for the return period of 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, based on the extreme value analysis of the wave measurement data at Gangneung beach. These values are compared with the results of SWAN simulation with the boundary condition of the deep-water design waves of the corresponding return periods at the Gangneung sea area provided by the Fisheries Agency (FA, 1988) and Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute (KORDI, 2005). It is found that the shallow-water wave heights at Gangneung beach calculated by the deep-water design waves were significantly less than the observation data. As the return period becomes higher, the significant wave heights obtained by the extreme value analysis becomes higher than those computed by SWAN with the deep-water design waves of the corresponding return periods. KORDI computed the hindcast wave data from January 2004 to August 2008 by WAM with a finer-grid mesh system than those of previous studies. Comparisons of the wave hindcast results with the wave observation show that the reproducibility of the winter-season storm wave was considerably improved compared to the hindcast data from 1979 to 2003. Hereafter, it is necessary to carry out hindcast wave data for the years before 2004 using WAM with the finer-grid mesh system and to supplement the deep-water design wave.