• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.11
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• pp.931-940
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• 2019

In hydrologic models, parameters are mainly used to reflect hydrologic elements or to supplement the simplified models. In this process, the proper selection of the parameters in the model can reduce the uncertainty. Accordingly, this study attempted to quantify the uncertainty of SWAT parameters using the General Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). Uncertainty analysis on SWAT parameters was conducted by using the formal and informal likelihood measures. The Lognormal function and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were used for formal and informal likelihood, respectively. Subjective factors are included in the selection of the likelihood function and the threshold, but the behavioral models were created by selecting top 30% lognormal for formal likelihood and NSE above 0.5 for informal likelihood. Despite the subjectivity in the selection of the likelihood and the threshold, there was a small difference between the formal and informal likelihoods. In addition, among the SWAT parameters, ALPHA_BF which reflects baseflow characteristics is the most sensitive. Based on this study, if the range of SWAT model parameters satisfying a certain threshold for each watershed is classified, it is expected that users will have more practical or academic access to the SWAT model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.300-300
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• 2021

최근 기후변화와 기상이변으로 예측하지 못한 게릴라성의 국지성호우로 인해서 과거 장마와 같은 피해가 아닌 변화된 강우패턴으로 막대한 피해가 나타나고 있다. 또한, 이러한 게릴라성 호우는 예측 또한 어려운 경향을 나타낸다. 이러한 피해를 방지하기 위해 단기유출 예측을 위해 사용되는 다양한 모형들 가운데 GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model)을 사용하였으며, GRM모델은 단기유출해석에 사용되며 국내에서 개발된 물리적 기반 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 한강의 하류인 청미천 유역을 대상으로 강우-유출 분석을 진행하였으며, 환경부의 11개 기상관측소의 자료를 이용한 티센망도 기반의 면적강우량으로 산정하였고 이를 GRM에 적용하였다. 강우자료의 Event 선정기간은 2011년 6월 29일부터 2011년 7월 1일까지 86.83mm 강수가 내린 Event이다. 공간자료는 국토지리정보원의 90M DEM(Digital Elevation Model), 농촌진흥청의 정밀토양도와 토심, 환경부 환경공간서비스의 대분류 토지이용도를 이용하였다. 또한, 검정을 위해서 정형우도인 NSE, 비정형우도인 Log-normal 우도를 이용하여 분석하였으며, 각각의 결과값은 NSE 0.966, Log-normal은 -1214.97의 값을 나타냈다. 추후, 다양한 적합지표를 이용하여 GRM의 강우패턴별, 유역별대표매개수가 산정된다면 홍수방어를 위한 강우-유출 모형으로 매우 유용하게 활용될 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.317-317
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• 2020

수재해는 수자원 인프라의 부족 및 관리 미흡 등 많은 요인들이 있지만 강우의 유무와 크기가 가장 원초적인 요인들 중 하나이다. 정확한 강우량 추정 및 강우발생시간 예측은 수재해로 인한 피해를 예방하고 빠르게 대처할 수 있다. 그러나 강우예측에는 많은 불확실성을 내포하고 있기 때문에 이러한 불확실성을 이해하고 줄여 나가는 것이 필요하다. 최근 컴퓨터의 성능의 발전에 비례해 강우 예측 자료들도 점진적으로 발전을 거듭하고 있다. 이를 강우-유출 모형에 적용시 유출량 예측의 정확성 또한 비례하여 한층 더 발전할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 신뢰성이 낮은 입력자료를 대상으로 하는 유출해석 모형은 많은 불확실성을 내포할 것이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위천 유역에 대해 LENS(Limited area ENsemble prediction System) 강우앙상블 예측자료의 적용성을 검토하고 그리드 기반 강우 유출 모델 GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model) 에 적용하여 유출예측의 불확실성을 평가하고자 하였다. 또한 강우예측 및 유출예측은 수 많은 매개변수를 포함하며 최종적인 예측은 더 큰 불확실한 범위로 산출될 수 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 Python3 기반 코딩으로 LENS 자료 구축 및 GRM 모형의 매개변수 보정을 각 2000회 씩에 걸쳐 총 2회 실시하여 수문학적, 지형학적 인자에 따른 불확실성 범위를 보정하고자 하였다. 매개변수의 보정은 비정형우도(Informal likelihood) NSE, 정형우도(Formal likelihood) Lognormal(Log-likelihood function)의 우도에 따른 행위모델을 산정하여 보정하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 선행연구들을 참고한 정형, 비정형 우도의 임계치를 이용한 불확실성해석에 적용하였으며 이는 사용자의 행위모델선정 임계치 범위 선정으로 인한 불확실성을 줄여나감에 기여할 수 있을것으로 사료된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.502-502
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• 2022

최근 기후변화와 기상이변으로 예측하지 못한 게릴라성의 국지성호우로 인해서 과거 장마와 같은 피해가 아닌 변화된 강우패턴으로 막대한 피해가 나타나고 있다. 또한, 이러한 게릴라성 호우는 예측 또한 어려운 경향을 나타낸다. 이러한 피해를 방지하기 위해 단기유출 예측을 위해 사용되는 다양한 모형들 가운데 GRM(Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model)을 사용하였으며, GRM모델은 단기유출해석에 사용되며 국내에서 개발된 물리적 기반 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 한강의 하류인 청미천 유역을 대상으로 강우-유출 분석을 진행하였으며, 환경부의 11개 기상관측소의 자료를 이용한 티센망도 기반의 면적강우량으로 산정하였고 이를 GRM에 적용하였다. 강우자료의 Event 선정기간은 2011년 6월 29일부터 2011년 7월 1일까지 86.83mm 강수가 내린 Event이다. 공간자료는 국토지리정보원의 90M DEM(Digital Elevation Model), 농촌진흥청의 정밀토양도와 토심, 환경부 환경공간서비스의 대분류 토지이용도를 이용하였다. 또한, 검정을 위해서 정형우도인 NSE, 비정형우도인 Log-normal 우도를 이용하여 분석하였으며, 각각의 결과값은 NSE 0.966, Log-normal은 -1214.97의 값을 나타냈다. 추후, 다양한 적합지표를 이용하여 GRM의 강우패턴별, 유역별대표매개수가 산정된다면 홍수방어를 위한 강우-유출 모형으로 매우 유용하게 활용될 것으로 판단된다.

• The Journal of Korean Orthopaedic Ultrasound Society
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.77-83
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• 2014

Purpose: The purpose of current study was to evaluate the validity of the existing radiological classifications as a diagnostic modality for predicting characteristics of calcific deposition in calcific tendinitis of the shoulder joint. For that purpose, we determined the inter-observer reliability for evaluating diagnostic precisions of the classification and also evaluated diagnostic accuracy of predicting the toothpaste type calcific deposition. Materials and Methods: We performed retrospective study with total 26 patients surgically treated with calcific tendinitis of the shoulder joint from March 2010 to October 2013. Two independent observers reviewed preoperative radiographs of shoulder joints, and classified the characteristics of calcific depositions according to the criteria of Gartner, DePalma and Patte. Cohen's kappa were calculated for each classifications to evaluate inter-observer reliability. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio were determined for type of calcific depositions with Gartner type III, DePalma type I, and Patte type II for predicting toothpaste type calcific deposition. Results: The values of Cohen's kappa were the highest in the classification of Patte, 0.62, and the values for the classifications of DePalma and Gartner were 0.56 and 0.36, respectively. The sensitivities for predicting toothpaste type calcific deposition in Gartner Type III, DePalma type I and Patte type II were 83.3%, 91.7%, and 58.3%, respectively. Specificities were 85.7% 50.0% and 64%, positive likelihood ratios were 5.833, 1.833 and 1.633, negative likelihood ratios were 0.194, 0.167 and 0.648, and diagnostic odds ratios were 30.00, 11.00 and 2.52, respectively. Conclusion: There were no radiologic classifications of calcific tendinitis which has both high precision and accuracy. Further studies with other diagnostic modalities such as ultrasonography are needed for predicting characteristics of calcific deposition in calcific tendinitis of the shoulder joint.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.33-39
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• 2013

In the transformation of response variable in partial linear models outliers can cause a bad effect on estimating the transformation parameter, just as in the linear models. To solve this problem the processes of estimating transformation parameter and detecting outliers are needed, but have difficulties to be performed due to the arbitrariness of the nonparametric function included in the partial linear model. In this study, through the estimation of nonparametric function and outlier detection methods such as a sequential test and a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation, processes for transforming response variable robust to outliers in partial linear models are suggested. The proposed methods are verified and compared their effectiveness by simulation study and examples.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.135-145
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• 2004

The CLA used to add in diet was chemically synthesized by alkaline isomerization method with corn oil. Pigs were divided into 5 treatment groups (4 pigs/group) and subjected to one of five treatment diets (0, 1.25％ CLA for 2weeks, 2.5％ CLA for 2weeks, 1.25％ CLA for 4weeks and 2.5％ CLA for 4weeks, CLA diets; total fed diets) before slaughter. Pork loin were collected from the animals (110kg body weight) slaughtering at the commercial slaughter house. Manufacture press ham using CLA accumulated pork loin were vacuum packaged and then stored during 1, 7, 14, 21 and 28 days at 4$^{\circ}C$. Samples were analyzed for texture characteristics, sensory evaluation, fatty acid composition and CLA content. There was no significant difference in texture among control and CLA treatment groups. It was not clearly changed by storage time. No remarkable differences were found in sensory properties (color, flavor, texture and acceptability) between control and CLA treatment groups. It was not clearly changed by the passage of storage time. In the change of fatty acid composition, the contents of oleic, linoleic and arachidonic were decreased by dietary CLA-supplementation, whereas the increase level of CLA-supplementation resulted in the higher palmitic and stearic acid than control. As dietary CLA was increased in feed, the content of CLA in pork was increased.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.645-658
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• 2004

To investigate the effects of conjugated linoleic acid added diet feeding on CLA accumulation and quality characteristics of manufactured press ham using CLA accwnulated pork loin meat. The CLA used to add in diet was chemically synthesized by alkaline isomerization method with com oil. Pigs were divided into 5 treatment groups(4 pigs/group) and subjected to one of five treatment diets(0, 1.25% CLA for 2weeks, 2.5% CLA for 2weeks, 1.25% CLA for 4weeks and 2.5% CLA for 4weeks, CLA diets; total fed diets) before slaughter. Pork loin were collected from the animals(110kg body weight) slaughtering at the commercial slaughter house. Manufacture press ham using CLA accumulated pork loin meat were vacuum packaged and then stored during 1, 7, 14, 21 and 28 days at 4$^{\circ}C$. Samples were analyzed for general compositions, physico-chemical properties(pH, color, shear force value), TBARS. pH value of CLA treatment(T4) was increased significantly than that of oontrol(P<0.05). pH of control and CLA treatments were increased significantly as the storage period passed(P< 0.05). Crude fat content of CLA treatment groups was significantly higher than the control pork (P<0.05). Meat color(CIE $L^*$, $a^*$$b^*$