• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비용의 확률분포

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Evaluation Study of LCOE for 8 MW Offshore Floating Wind Turbine in Ulsan Region (울산 앞바다 8 MW급 부유식 해상풍력터빈의 LCOE 연구 )

  • Dong Hoon Lee;Hee Chang Lim
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.5-13
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    • 2023
  • The commercialization has been of great importance to the clean energy research sector for investing the wind farm development, but it would be difficult to reach a social consensus on the need to expand the economic feasibility of renewable energy due to the lack of reliable and continuous information on levelized cost of Energy (LCOE). Regarding this fact, this paper presents the evaluation of LCOE, focusing on Ulsan offshore region targeting to build the first floating offshore wind farm. Energy production is estimated by the meteorology data combined with the Leanwind Project power curve of an exemplar wind turbine. This work aims to analyze the costs of the Capex depending on site-specific variables. The cost of final LCOE was estimated by using Monte-Carlo method, and it became an average range 297,090 KRW/MWh, a minimum of 251,080 KRW/MWh, and a maximum of 341,910 KRW/MWh. In the year 2021, the SMP (system marginal price) and 4.5 REC (renewable energy certificate) can be paid if 1 MWh of electricity is generated by renewable energy. Considering current SMP and REC price, the floating platform industry, which can earn around 502,000 KRW/MWh, can be finally estimated highly competitive in the Korean market.

A User Optimer Traffic Assignment Model Reflecting Route Perceived Cost (경로인지비용을 반영한 사용자최적통행배정모형)

  • Lee, Mi-Yeong;Baek, Nam-Cheol;Mun, Byeong-Seop;Gang, Won-Ui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2005
  • In both deteministic user Optimal Traffic Assignment Model (UOTAM) and stochastic UOTAM, travel time, which is a major ccriterion for traffic loading over transportation network, is defined by the sum of link travel time and turn delay at intersections. In this assignment method, drivers actual route perception processes and choice behaviors, which can become main explanatory factors, are not sufficiently considered: therefore may result in biased traffic loading. Even though there have been some efforts in Stochastic UOTAM for reflecting drivers' route perception cost by assuming cumulative distribution function of link travel time, it has not been fundamental fruitions, but some trials based on the unreasonable assumptions of Probit model of truncated travel time distribution function and Logit model of independency of inter-link congestion. The critical reason why deterministic UOTAM have not been able to reflect route perception cost is that the route perception cost has each different value according to each origin, destination, and path connection the origin and destination. Therefore in order to find the optimum route between OD pair, route enumeration problem that all routes connecting an OD pair must be compared is encountered, and it is the critical reason causing computational failure because uncountable number of path may be enumerated as the scale of transportation network become bigger. The purpose of this study is to propose a method to enable UOTAM to reflect route perception cost without route enumeration between an O-D pair. For this purpose, this study defines a link as a least definition of path. Thus since each link can be treated as a path, in two links searching process of the link label based optimum path algorithm, the route enumeration between OD pair can be reduced the scale of finding optimum path to all links. The computational burden of this method is no more than link label based optimum path algorithm. Each different perception cost is embedded as a quantitative value generated by comparing the sub-path from the origin to the searching link and the searched link.

Potential Mapping of Mountainous Wetlands using Weights of Evidence Model in Yeongnam Area, Korea (Weight of Evidence 기법을 이용한 영남지역의 산지습지 가능지역 추출)

  • Baek, Seung-Gyun;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2013
  • Weight of evidence model was applied for potential mapping of mountainous wetland to reduce the range of the field survey and to increase the efficiency of operations because the surveys of mountainous wetland need a lot of time and money owing to inaccessibility and extensiveness. The relationship between mountainous wetland location and related factors is expressed as a probability by Weight of evidence model. For this, the spatial database consist of slope map, curvature map, vegetation index map, wetness index map, soil drainage rating map was constructed in Yeongnam area, Korea, and weights of evidence based on the relationship between mountainous wetland location and each factor rating were calculated. As a result of correlation analysis between mountainous wetland location and each factors rating using likelihood ratio values, the probability of mountainous wetlands were increased at condition of lower slope, lower curvature, lower vegetation index value, lower wetness value, moderate soil drainage rating. Mountainous Wetland Potential Index(MWPI) was calculated by summation of the likelihood ratio and mountainous wetland potential map was constucted from GIS integration. The mountain wetland potential map was verified by comparison with the known mountainous wetland locations. The result showed the 75.48% in prediction accuracy.

Analyzing Passenger Arrival Behavior Based on the Spent Time for Airport Access (공항접근시간에 따른 여객의 공항도착 행태분석)

  • 오성열;김원규;박용화
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2003
  • In general, an airport access system has influenced on airport terminal operation. The congestion and delay in service facilities at an airport are definitely depended on the patterns of passenger arrival behavior and time spent in a terminal. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the passenger arrival behavior at an airport to improve the operations at passenger terminal. Passenger arrival patterns to an airport are mainly depended on factors such as the length of access time. reliability of access time. and provision of transport modes, etc. The focus of this paper is to estimate the relationship between the length of access time and passenger's total time spent to board aeroplane. For this, passenger surveys were conducted at the Gimpo International Airport for a large airport and Sacheon Airport for a small size airport. The mathematical relationship between arrival time at an airport prior to the scheduled time of departure(STD) and access time spent was then estimated. It is considered that the results of this study can be used to reduce congestion and delays, thereby to improve the efficiency of the passenger services at the airports.

The Comparative Software Cost Model of Considering Logarithmic Fault Detection Rate Based on Failure Observation Time (로그형 관측고장시간에 근거한 결함 발생률을 고려한 소프트웨어 비용 모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.335-342
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    • 2013
  • In this study, reliability software cost model considering logarithmic fault detection rate based on observations from the process of software product testing was studied. Adding new fault probability using the Goel-Okumoto model that is widely used in the field of reliability problems presented. When correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model. For analysis of software cost model considering the time-dependent fault detection rate, the parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data was made. In this research, Software developers to identify the best time to release some extent be able to help is considered.

Probabilistic Analysis of Fuel Cycle Strategy in Korea

  • Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Chang-Hyo;Lee, Chang-Kun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.219-229
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    • 1976
  • A statistical approach is employed to investigate the relative advantages of several alternative fuel cycles suitable for a hypothetical 1125 MWe plant in Korea. All the fuel cost parameters are treated as statistical variables, each being associated with an appropriate probability distribution function. Through a random sampling procedure, the probability histograms on both capital requirements and break-even costs of various fuel cycle components are obtained. The histograms are then utilized to quantify the cost-benefit of the fuel cycle with reprocessing or the plutonium recycle over the throwaway cycle.

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Extraction of the Talus Distribution Potential Area Using the Spatial Statistical Techniques - Focusing on the Weight of Evidence Model - (공간통계기법을 이용한 애추 분포 가능지역 추출 - Weight of evidence 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Yu, Jaejin;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 2014
  • Reducing the range of target landform, is required to save the time and cost before real field survey in the case of inaccessible landform such as talus. In this study, Weight of Evidence modeling, which is a Target-driven spatial analysis statistics methods, has been applied to reduce the field survey range of target landform. In order to apply the Weight of Evidence analysis, a likelihood ratio was calculated on the basis of the result of correlation analysis between geomorphic factors and GIS information after selection of geomorphic factors regarding talus. A best combination, which has the biggest possibility for Talus Potential Index, was found by using SRC and AUC methods after calculating the number of cases for each thematic maps. This combination which includes aspect, geology, slope, land-cover, soil depth and soil drainage factors, showed quite high accuracy by 74.47% indicating the ratio of real existent talus to potential talus distribution.

Day-to-day dynamic combined model on the evaluation of traveller's traffic information for multi-mode and multi-class (다수단 다계층 통행정보제공에 따른 일별동적결합모형 개발 및 평가)

  • 이승재;손의영;김인경
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 1999
  • The Purpose of this Paper is the development of the day-to-day dynamic combined model on the evaluation of traveller's traffic information for multi-mode and multi-class environments. Information is assumed to be provided for multi-mode such as bus and automobile. and multi-class such as a driver with and without route guidance equipment when they depart for their trips. The information provision strategies have been developed in the base of user equilibrium, system optimum and in between them. The Sioux Falls network is used for the evaluation of the model and information provision strategies. In the numerical analysis, a Braess' paradox for the information provision, which is the increase of travel time even though the number of information usage level and user are increased, has been occurred so that these kinds of information strategies should be implemented with special care.

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A Facility Location Model Considering the Urban Spatial Structure by Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 도시공간형태별 입지선정 모델)

  • Na, Ho-Young;Lee, Sang-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2008
  • Facility location problem is an important subject in many areas of modern business environment. In this paper, we deal with uncapacitated and multi-period facility location problem where the object is a maximization of total profit within predetermined cost. We assume that all demand have to be met. Particularly, we represent various types of customer based on four well-known urban spatial structures to represent a spread of customers. Those are concentric zone model, sector model, multiple nuclei model and star model respectively. We apply to the genetic algorithm to simulate a large scaled problem and develop simulator. We analyze both optimal numbers and locations of facilities for each urban structure. Furthermore, we examine the appropriate time to further expansion of the facilities in the planning horizon. The experimental results show that the developed algorithm can be applied effectively to the facility location problem in the various types of urban area.

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The Economic Analysis on Traffic Safety Facility along the Inland Waterway Using Probabilistic Simulation -Focusing on the section between Phnom Penh and Chong Kneas port in Cambodia- (확률론적 시뮬레이션을 이용한 내륙수로 교통안전시설의 경제성 분석 -캄보디아의 프롬펜과 총크니아스항 구간을 대상으로-)

  • Kim, Jung-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.165-182
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    • 2009
  • This study analyzed the economic analysis on the Cambodian inland waterway from Phnom Penh to Chong Kneas. The social discount rate of 3.5% was applied for the cost and benefit of projects and converted to the current values in 2009. The benefits were supposed as the triangle distribution with minimum, mode, and maximum value corresponding to pessimistic, moderate and optimistic prospect separately. And the distributions of costs were the normal. As the result of probabilistic simulations, the average of B/C for scenario A showed relatively the highest with 0.25 and its 90% confidence interval 0.16~0.35. The average B/C of scenario B is 0.10 with the 90% confidence interval 0.06~0.13 and the one of scenario C is 0.15 with 90% confidence interval 0.12~0.19. Therefore it was concluded as low economic feasibility to install inland waterway aids to navigation along the surveyed waterway. However, the performance of the project should be determined by its political analysis as well as the economic.

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