• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비용의 확률분포

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Analysis of the Relationship between Concrete Slab Track Life and Secondary Compression Characteristics in Soft Clay (점토의 2차 압축특성과 콘크리트궤도 수명과의 상관성 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Cheol;Cho, Kook-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.195-203
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    • 2016
  • Concrete slab track was applied to the Gyeoungbu High Speed Railroad step 2 and the Honam High Speed Railroad. Concrete slab track incurs higher construction cost and lower maintenance cost than existing gravel track. For these reasons, the use of concrete slab track has increased in Korea. The biggest problem in the use of concrete slab track is repairing damage from settlement that can occur while trains are in service. High speed railroad design standards require allowable residual settlement of concrete slab track of less than 25mm. In order to satisfy the requirement of long term stability of concrete slab track, it is necessary to manage the secondary compression settlement within the allowable residual settlement. This study is to evaluate the secondary compression settlement with the variation of the secondary compression index, thickness of soft ground, and concrete slab track life. Statistical analysis is performed to determine the probability of distribution of areas where serious problems will be caused after the concrete slab track is constructed.

Mechanical Properties Evaluation of 3D Printing Recycled Concrete utilizing Wasted Shell Aggregate (패각 잔골재를 활용한 3D 프린팅 자원순환 콘크리트의 역학적 성능 평가)

  • Jeewoo Suh;Ju-Hyeon Park;Tong-Seok Han
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2024
  • The volume of shells, a prominent form of marine waste, is steadily increasing each year. However, a significant portion of these shells is either discarded or left near coastlines, posing environmental and social concerns. Utilizing shells as a substitute for traditional aggregates presents a potential solution, especially considering the diminishing availability of natural aggregates. This approach could effectively reduce transportation logistics costs, thereby promoting resource recycling. In this study, we explore the feasibility of employing wasted shell aggregates in 3D concrete printing technology for marine structures. Despite the advantages, it is observed that 3D printing concrete with wasted shells as aggregates results in lower strength compared to ordinary concrete, attributed to pores at the interface of shells and cement paste. Microstructure characterization becomes essential for evaluating mechanical properties. We conduct an analysis of the mechanical properties and microstructure of 3D printing concrete specimens incorporating wasted shells. Additionally, a mix design is proposed, taking into account flowability, extrudability, and buildability. To assess mechanical properties, compression and bonding strength specimens are fabricated using a 3D printer, and subsequent strength tests are conducted. Microstructure characteristics are analyzed through scanning electron microscope tests, providing high-resolution images. A histogram-based segmentation method is applied to segment pores, and porosity is compared based on the type of wasted shell. Pore characteristics are quantified using a probability function, establishing a correlation between the mechanical properties and microstructure characteristics of the specimens according to the type of wasted shell.

기업연구개발활동통계 개선방안에 관한 연구

  • Jo, Seong-Pyo;Park, Seon-Yeong;Han, Gi-In;No, Min-Seon;Bae, Han-Su;Kim, Hyeon-A
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2009.02a
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    • pp.313-332
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 국가의 연구개발활동조사에서 기업연구개발활동 통계에 대한 효과적인 산출방법을 제시하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 국내 외 연구개발 통계방법을 조사한 후 이를 토대로 우리나라에서 기업연구개발활동에 대한 자료의 수집 및 분석에 대한 개선방안을 제시하였다. 대부분의 국가에서는 대기업은 전수조사, 소규모 기업은 표본조사를 수행하고 있으나, 우리나라에서는 연구소 등록법인에 대하여 전수조사를 행하고 있다. 전수조사는 비용이 많이 들고 비 표본오차로 인하여 모집단에 대한 체계적인 추정이 불가능하다는 문제점이 있다. 현재 산업기술진흥협회에 등록된 연구기관의 수가 20,000개를 넘어서고 있어 전수조사는 한계에 다다른 것으로 생각되어 표본조사 도입에 대한 타당성과 방법론을 중점적으로 검토하였다. 먼저, 표본조사의 타당성을 평가하기 위하여 현재 전수조사를 통해 수집된 자료를 이용하여 표본조사를 수행한 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 산업별(24개), 그룹별(8개)로 구분하여 216개 셀별로 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 산정 (셀별추정법)한 결과, 전수 통계치와 거의 동일하게 나타났다. 따라서, 산업별, 그룹별로 세분하여 모집단수/표본수를 곱하여 추정하는 셀별추정법이 타당한 것으로 평가할 수 있다. 이상의 분석결과를 토대로 새로운 조사설계방안을 제시하면 다음과 같다. 직전연도 조사기업은 직전연도 연구개발비 수준과 기업종류(대기업, 벤처기업, 중소기업), 그리고 산업에 따라 셀을 분할한다. 대기업, 연구개발비 수준이 높은 기업 등 주요한 셀에 대하여는 전수조사를 실시한다. 나머지 셀에 대하여는 각 셀별 연구개발지출의 분포가 동질적이기 때문에 표본 추출방법은 단순임의추출법(SRS)을 사용한다. 다만 전년도 미계상된(또는 미포함된) 기업에 대하여는 신규 대형 연구소 진입 등을 고려하여 규모비례확률추출법(PPS)을 고려하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다. 일부 기업들이 특정 항목에 대한 자료를 제공하지 않는 항목무응답의 경우, 누락된 자료에 대하여는 대체기법(Imputation Algorithm)에 따라 이를 추정한다. 이러한 표본조사방법은 전수조사에서 발생하는 비 표본오차를 해소하고, 자료수집비용 및 소규모기업의 행정적 부담을 경감할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. 향후 연구에서는 좀 더 구체적인 조사방법론을 강구할 필요가 있으며, 이와 함께, 연구개발에 대한 다양한 측면의 정보를 수집하기 위해 새로운 설문지를 개발할 필요성이 있다.

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Correction of Latent Errors in Pavement Deterioration Data using Statistical Methods (통계기법을 활용한 포장파손자료의 잠재오차 보정)

  • Han, Daeseok;Do, Myungsik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.587-598
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    • 2012
  • Successful implementation of infrastructure asset management system can be started with rich and reliable data. However, measurement errors in the data have always existed in the real world caused for many unknown reasons. It disturbs maintenance activities of agencies, and makes negative effects to reliability of research results on forecasting deterioration process and life cycle cost. Above all, it makes a contradiction that road agencies cannot believe their inspection data surveyed by their hands. It is particularly serious in the road pavement management field. Although road agencies are well recognized the fact, inspecting without measurement error would be a great challenge. Considering the facts, this paper aimed to suggest statistical error processing methods to correct latent error included in pavement surface inspection data. As alternatives, this paper suggested two methods based on probability distribution to consider structure of error and reliability of the data. The suggested methods were empirically tested by using pavement inspection data from Korean National Highway. As the result, this paper confirmed that conventional error processing that just removes only visible errors is not enough to cover uncertainty in pavement deterioration process. The suggested methods would be useful for improving reliability of analysis results required for road infrastructure asset management.

Determining Transit Vehicle Dispatching Time (최적 배차시각 설정에 관한 해석적 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Sik;Go, Seung-Yeong;Kim, Jeom-San;Gwon, Yong-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2007
  • This study involves an analytical approach to determine transit dispatching schedules (headways) Determining a time schedule is an important process in transit system planning. In general, the transit headway should be shorter during the peak hour than at non-peak hours for demand-responsive service. It allows passengers to minimize their waiting time under inelastic, fixed demand conditions. The transit headway should be longer as operating costs increase, and shorter as demand and waiting time increase. Optimal headway depends on the amount of ridership. and each individual vehicle dispatching time depends on the distribution of the ridership. This study provides a theoretical foundation for the dispatching scheme consistent with common sense. Previous research suggested a dispatching scheme with even headway. However, according to this research, that is valid for a specific case when the demand pattern is uniform. This study is a general analysis expanding that previous research. This study suggests an easy method to set a time table without a complex and difficult calculation. Further. if the time axis is changed to the space axis instead, this study could be expanded to address the spacing problems of some facilities such as roads. stations, routes and others.

Improvement of Recognition Speed for Real-time Address Speech Recognition (실시간 주소 음성인식을 위한 인식 시스템의 인식속도 개선)

  • Hwang Cheol-Jun;Oh Se-Jin;Kim Bum-Koog;Jung Ho-Youl;Chung Hyun-Yeol
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • spring
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    • pp.74-77
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문에서는 본 연구실에서 개발한 주소 음성인식 시스템의 인식 속도를 개선시키기 위하예 새로운 가변 프루닝 문턱치를 적용하는 방법을 제안하고 실험을 통하여 그 유효성을 확인하였다. 기존의 가변 프루닝 문턱치는 일정 프레임이 경과하면 일정 값을 가진 문턱치를 계속하여 감소시켜나가는 방법을 반복하기 때문에, 불필요한 탐색공간을 탐색하게 된다. 본 논문에서 새로이 제안하는 가변 프루닝 문턱치를 채용하는 방법은 처음 일정 구간이 경과되면 일정 문턱치를 감소시키나, 다음 일정 프레임에서는 탐색되어야할 후보에 따라서 문턱치를 변화시켜 프루닝시키기 때문에 탐색공간을 효과적으로 감소시킬 수 있다. 제안된 방법의 유효성을 확인하기 위하여, 본 연구실에서 개발한 한국어 주소 입력 시스템에 적용하였다. 이 시스템은 48개의 연속 HMM 유사음소단위(Phoneme Like Units; PLUs)를 인식의 기본단위로 하고, .사용환경 변화에 의한 인식성능의 저하를 최소화하기 위해 최대사후 확률추정법(Maximum A Posteriori Probability Estimation; MAP)을 사용하며, 인식알고리즘으로는OPDP(One Pass Dynamic Programming)법을 이용하고 있다. 남성화자 3인에 의한 75개의 연결주소명을 이용하여 인식 실험을 수행한 결과 고정 프루닝 문턱치를 적용한 경우 인식률은 평균 $96.0\%$, 인식 시간은 5.26초였고, 기존의 가변 프루닝 문턱치의 경우 인식률은 평균 $96.0\%$, 인식 시간은 5.1초인 데 비하여, 새로운 가변 프루닝 문턱치를 적용찬 경우에는 인식률 저하없이 인식 시간이 4.34초로, 기존에 비해 각각 0.92초, 0.76초 인식 시간이 감소되어 제안한 방법의 유효성을 확인할 수 있었다.는 달리 각 산란 영역에서 그 지수는 1씩 작은 값을 갖는다.향에 따라 음장변화가 크게 다를 것이 예상되므로 이를 규명하기 위해서는 궁극적으로 3차원적인 음장분포 연구가 필요하다. 음향센서를 해저면에 매설할 경우 수충의 수온변화와 센서 주변의 수온변화 사이에는 어느 정도의 시간지연이 존재하게 되므로 이에 대한 영향을 규명하는 것도 센서의 성능예측을 위해서 필요하리라 사료된다.가지는 심부 가스의 개발 성공률을 증가시키기 위하여 심부 가스가 존재하는 지역의 지질학적 부존 환경 및 조성상의 특성과 생산시 소요되는 생산비용을 심도에 따라 분석하고 생산에 수반되는 기술적 문제점들을 정리하였으며 마지막으로 향후 요구되는 연구 분야들을 제시하였다. 또한 참고로 현재 심부 가스의 경우 미국이 연구 개발 측면에서 가장 활발한 활동을 전개하고 있으며 그 결과 다수의 신뢰성 있는 자료들을 확보하고 있으므로 본 논문은 USGS와 Gas Research Institute(GRI)에서 제시한 자료에 근거하였다.ऀĀ耀Ā삱?⨀؀Ā Ā?⨀ጀĀ耀Ā?돀ꢘ?⨀硩?⨀ႎ?⨀?⨀넆돐쁖잖⨀쁖잖⨀/ࠐ?⨀焆덐瀆倆Āⶇ퍟ⶇ퍟ĀĀĀĀ磀鲕좗?⨀肤?⨀⁅Ⴅ?⨀쀃잖⨀䣙熸ጁ↏?⨀

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A Model for Supporting Information Security Investment Decision-Making Considering the Efficacy of Countermeasures (정보보호 대책의 효과성을 고려한 정보보호 투자 의사결정 지원 모형)

  • Byeongjo Park;Tae-Sung Kim
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.27-45
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    • 2023
  • The importance of information security has grown alongside the development of information and communication technology. However, companies struggle to select suitable countermeasures within their limited budgets. Sönmez and Kılıç (2021) proposed a model using AHP and mixed integer programming to determine the optimal investment combination for mitigating information security breaches. However, their model had limitations: 1) a lack of objective measurement for countermeasure efficacy against security threats, 2) unrealistic scenarios where risk reduction surpassed pre-investment levels, and 3) cost duplication when using a single countermeasure for multiple threats. This paper enhances the model by objectively quantifying countermeasure efficacy using the beta probability distribution. It also resolves unrealistic scenarios and the issue of duplicating investments for a single countermeasure. An empirical analysis was conducted on domestic SMEs to determine investment budgets and risk levels. The improved model outperformed Sönmez and Kılıç's (2021) optimization model. By employing the proposed effectiveness measurement approach, difficulty to evaluate countermeasures can be quantified. Utilizing the improved optimization model allows for deriving an optimal investment portfolio for each countermeasure within a fixed budget, considering information security costs, quantities, and effectiveness. This aids in securing the information security budget and effectively addressing information security threats.

A Study of Adjustment for Beginning & Ending Points of Climbing Lanes (오르막차로 시.종점 위치의 보정에 관한 연구)

  • 김상윤;오흥운
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.5 s.91
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2006
  • Acceleration and deceleration curves have been used for design purposes worldwide. The curve in design level has been regarded as an single deterministic curve to be used for design of climb lanes. It should be noted that the curve was originally made using ideal driving truck and that the curve is applied during design based on the assumption of no difference between ideal and real driving conditions. However. observations show that aged vehicles and lazy behavioring drivers nay make lower performance of vehicles than the ideal performance. The present paper provides the results of truck speeds at climbing lanes then probabilistic variation of acceleration and deceleration corves. For these purposes. a study about identification of vehicle makers, and weights for trucks at freeway toll gates and then observation of vehicle-following speed were performed. The 85%ile results obtained were compared with the deterministic performance curves of 180, 200, and 220 Ib/hp. It was identified that the performance of 85%ile results obtained from vehicle-following-speed observations were lower than one from deterministic performance curves. From these results, it may be concluded that at the beginning Point of climbing lanes additional $16.19{\sim}67.94m$ is necessary and that at the end point of climbing lanes $53.12{\sim}103.24m$ of extension is necessary.

Development of Sample Survey Design for the Industrial Research and Development Statistics (표본조사에 의한 기업 연구개발활동 통계 작성방안)

  • Cho, Seong-Pyo;Park, Sun-Young;Han, Ki-In;Noh, Min-Sun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • The Survey on the Industrial Research and Development(R&D) is the primary source of information on R&D performed by Korea industrial sector. The results of the survey are used to assess trends in R&D expenditures. Government agencies, corporations, and research organizations use the data to investigate productivity determinants, formulate tax policy, and compare individual company performance with industry averages. Recently, Korea Industrial Technology Association(KOITA) has collected the data by complete enumeration. Koita has, currently, considered sample survey because the number of R&D institutions in industry has been dramatically increased. This study develops survey design for the industrial research and development(R&D) statistics by introducing a sample survey. Companies are divided into 8 groups according to the amount of R&D expenditures and firm size or type. We collect the sample from 24 or 8 sampling strata and compare the results with those of complete enumeration survey. The estimates from 24 sampling strata are not significantly different to the results of complete enumeration survey. We propose the survey design as follows: Companies are divided into 11 groups including the companies of which R&D expenditures are unknown. All large companies are included in the survey and medium and small companies are sampled from 70% and 3%. Simple random sampling (SRS) is applied to the small company partition since they show uniform distribution in R&D expenditures. The independent probability proportionate to size (PPS) sampling procedure may be applied to those companies identified as 'not R&D performers'. When respondents do not provide the requested information, estimates for the missing data are made using imputation algorithms. In the future study, new key variables should be developed in survey questionnaires.

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A stratified random sampling design for paddy fields: Optimized stratification and sample allocation for effective spatial modeling and mapping of the impact of climate changes on agricultural system in Korea (농지 공간격자 자료의 층화랜덤샘플링: 농업시스템 기후변화 영향 공간모델링을 위한 국내 농지 최적 층화 및 샘플 수 최적화 연구)

  • Minyoung Lee;Yongeun Kim;Jinsol Hong;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.526-535
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    • 2021
  • Spatial sampling design plays an important role in GIS-based modeling studies because it increases modeling efficiency while reducing the cost of sampling. In the field of agricultural systems, research demand for high-resolution spatial databased modeling to predict and evaluate climate change impacts is growing rapidly. Accordingly, the need and importance of spatial sampling design are increasing. The purpose of this study was to design spatial sampling of paddy fields (11,386 grids with 1 km spatial resolution) in Korea for use in agricultural spatial modeling. A stratified random sampling design was developed and applied in 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. Twenty-five weather and four soil characteristics were used as stratification variables. Stratification and sample allocation were optimized to ensure minimum sample size under given precision constraints for 16 target variables such as crop yield, greenhouse gas emission, and pest distribution. Precision and accuracy of the sampling were evaluated through sampling simulations based on coefficient of variation (CV) and relative bias, respectively. As a result, the paddy field could be optimized in the range of 5 to 21 strata and 46 to 69 samples. Evaluation results showed that target variables were within precision constraints (CV<0.05 except for crop yield) with low bias values (below 3%). These results can contribute to reducing sampling cost and computation time while having high predictive power. It is expected to be widely used as a representative sample grid in various agriculture spatial modeling studies.