• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비선형 예측

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Locally Weighted Polynomial Forecasting Model (지역가중다항식을 이용한 예측모형)

  • Mun, Yeong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.31-38
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    • 2000
  • Relationships between hydrologic variables are often nonlinear. Usually the functional form of such a relationship is not known a priori. A multivariate, nonparametric regression methodology is provided here for approximating the underlying regression function using locally weighted polynomials. Locally weighted polynomials consider the approximation of the target function through a Taylor series expansion of the function in the neighborhood of the point of estimate. The utility of this nonparametric regression approach is demonstrated through an application to nonparametric short term forecasts of the biweekly Great Salt Lake volume.volume.

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Failure Time Prediction by Nonlinear Least Square Method with Deformation Data (계측 자료의 비선형최소자승법을 이용한 파괴시간 예측)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Kim, Byoung-Chul;Jo, Young-Do
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.558-566
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    • 2009
  • Time-dependent behavior is a basic mechanical property of rocks. Predicting the failure time of rock structures by analyzing the time-dependent characteristic is important and problematic. It is tried to predict the failure time of tunnel, slope & laboratory creep test specimen from measured displacement(or strain) and rate with relationship suggested by Voight($\ddot{\Omega}=A\dot{\Omega}^\alpha$, where $\Omega$ is a measurable quantity such as strain & displacement and A & $\alpha$ are constants). A & $\alpha$ are estimated through applying the nonlinear least square method to the single and double integrated Voight's equations and utilized to predict the failure time. Predicted failure time is in accordance with real one except minor error. Linear inverse rate method applied to creep strain and rate yields a poor linear correlation of data and precision of predicted failure time is not better than methods using strain and rate.

Unconfined Compressive Stress-Strain Behavior of Cemented Granular Geomaterials (강화된 입상지반재료의 일축압축 응력-변형거동)

  • Park, Seong-Wan;Cho, Chung Yeon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5C
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    • pp.183-190
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    • 2009
  • It is necessary to predict the deformation and stresses on soils to establish the nonlinear stress-strain relationship of geomaterials at various strain levels. Especially, a need exists to establish the pre-failure nonlinear characteristic of cemented granular geomaterials used in road constructions. In this paper, therefore, conventional granular soils were mixed with various cementing materials, such as cement and fly ash from coal combustion by-products. Then, the normalized nonlinear behavior of cemented geomaterials was assessed using unconfined compression test. In addition, various constitutive models of soils were evaluated for estimating pre-failure non-linear behavior of cemented geomaterials from the test results.

Population Forecasting System Based on Growth Curve Models (성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측 시스템)

  • 최종후;최봉호;양우성;김유진
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.197-215
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    • 2000
  • 이 논문에서는 선형·비선형 성장곡선모형의 종류와 특성을 살펴보고, 이들을 비교·검토하고, 모형선호기준 통계량에 입각하여 추정결과를 비교한다. 또한 최종사용자 환경을 위한 SAS/AF로 구현한 성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측시스템을 소개한다.

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Inelastic Buckling Analysis of Partially Restrained Frame (유연 뼈대 구조물의 비탄성 좌굴 해석)

  • Kim Seung Eock
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 1996
  • 본 논문에서는 유연 연결부를 갖고 있는 이차원 구조물의 비탄성 좌굴해석을 연구하였다. 본 해석을 통하여 구조물의 기하학적, 및 재료적 비선형 뿐만 아니라 유연 연결부의 비선형 효과가 구조물의 거동과 강도에 미치는 영향을 예측할 수 있다. 본 해석 결과는 실험 결과와 비교하였으며 예제해석도 수행하였다.

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Realization and Design of Predictor Algorithm and Evaluation of Numerical Method on Nonlinear Load Control Model (비선형 하중제어 모델의 예측기 설계 및 알고리즘 구현을 위한 수치연산 오차 분석과 평가)

  • Wang, Hyun-Min;Woo, Kwang-Joon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2009
  • For the shake of control for movement object, control theory like neural network, nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) is realized on digital high speed computer. Predictor of flight control system(FCS) based nonlinear model predictive control has to be satisfied with response for hard real-time to perform applications on each module in the FCS. Simultaneously, It gives a serious consideration accuracy to give full play to FCS's performance. Error of mathematical aspect affects realization of whole algorithm. But factors of bring mathematical error is not considered to calculate final accuracy on parameter of predictor. In this paper, Predictor was made using load control model on the digital computer for design FCS at hard real-time and is shown response time on realization algorithm. And is shown realization algorithm of high effective predictor over the accuracy. The predictor was realized on the load control model using Euler method, Heun method, Runge-Kutta and Taylor method.

Numerical Analysis of Anisotropic Soil Deformation by the Nonlinear Anisotropic Model (흙의 변형 거동 예측을 위한 비선형 이방성 모델의 개발과 적용)

  • 정충기;정영훈;윤충구
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.237-249
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    • 2002
  • Nonlinearity and anisotropy of soil should be considered for the exact prediction of deformation before the failure state. In this study, a new constitutive model is developed in which the nonlinearity of soil is formulated by Ramberg-Osgood equation and the soil anisotropy is implemented by the cross-anisotropic elasticity. Nonlinear anisotropic model and other models for comparison are used to analyze the simple boundary value problems and the circular footing problem. In the results, the anisotropic ratio of elastic modulus is a key value for the bulk modulus of soil, the coeffcient of earth pressure at rest, and the slope of effective stress paths. Furthermore, it is found that the nonlinearity of soil considering the in-situ stresses has the great influence on the magnitude of settlements.

Strength Prediction on Composite Laminates Including Material Nonlinearity and Continuum Damage Mechanics (재료 비선형과 연속체 손상역학을 고려한 복합 적층판의 강도 예측)

  • Park, Kook-Jin;Kang, Hee-Jin;Shin, Sangjoon;Choi, Ik-Hyun;Kim, Minki;Kim, Seung-Jo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.42 no.11
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    • pp.927-936
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents development and verification of the progressive failure analysis upon the composite laminates. Strength and stiffness of the fiber-reinforced composite are analyzed by property degradation approach with emphasis on the material nonlinearity and continuum damage mechanics (CDM). Longitudinal and transverse tensile modes derived from Hashin's failure criterion are used to predict the thresholds for damage initiation and growth. The modified Newton-Raphson iterative procedure is implemented for determining nonlinear elastic and viscoelastic constitutive relations. Laminar properties of the composite are obtained by experiments. Prediction on the un-notched tensile (UNT) specimen is performed under the laminate level. Stress-strain curves and strength results are compared with the experimental measurement. It is concluded that the present nonlinear CDM approach is capable of predicting the strength and stiffness more accurately than the corresponding linear CDM one does.

Design of Neuro-Fuzzy-based Predictive Controller for Nonlinear Systems with Time Delay (지연시간을 갖는 비선형 시스템을 위한 퍼지-신경망 기반 예측제어기 설계)

  • Kim, Sung-Ho;Kim, Joo-Whan;Lee, Young-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.144-150
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    • 2002
  • In this paper a design of neuro-fuzzy-based predictive controller for nonlinear systems with time-delay is proposed. The proposed control system contains two neuro-fuzzy systems called ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). One is run as a series-parallel mode and the other is run as a parallel mode. An ANFIS running in series-parallel mode emulates the response of the nonlinear system with time-delay. Another ANFIS running in parallel mode generates the predicted output of the nonlinear system to compensate for the time-delays. Therefore, the proposed control system can be thought of as an extension of Smith-predictor scheme to the nonlinear systems with time-delay. A detailed design Procedure is presented and finally computer simulations are executed for the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

정규모드 동역학을 활용한 비선형 진동

  • 박철희
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.6-12
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    • 1997
  • 물리계에서 일어나는 동적 현상들은 선형해석 만으로 설명하기에는 불충분한 점이 많이 있다. 이는 기계구조물과 같은 실제 계의 진동이 기하학적 비선형성, 강성 의 비선형성 또는 경계조건의 비선형성 등의 영향으로 비선형적인 거동을 하기 때문 이다. 비선형 진동을 하는 기계 계는 우리 주변에서 쉽게 찾아 볼 수 있는데, 그 예로써 진자운동을 포함하여 동흡진기, 회전체계, 공작기계의 절삭운동, 건마찰 (dry friction) 관련 기계장치, 치차 및 기차의 바퀴와 레일 간의 접촉에서 볼수 있는 구분적 선형(piecewise linear) 진동계, 충격 진동계 등을 들 수 있다. 비선형 진동 연구는 limit cycle, 준주기운동(quasiperiodic motion), 점프현상(jump phenomena) 등의 인식에서 시작되어, 과거에는 설명이 안되어 회피되 왔던 랜덤(random) 형태의 비주기운동에 대한 연구로 까지 발전하고 있다. 비선형 진동을 다루는데 있어서 정규모드(normal mode)를 이용하는 방법이 있다. 일반적으로 선형계는 선형 정규모드 (linear normal mode)가 존재하는 것과 같이 비선형계에도 이와 유사한 정규모드가 존재한다는 사실이 연구 보고된 바 있다. 비선형계에 존재하는 정규모드는 계의 매개 변수(system parameters)에 따라 그 안정성이 바뀔 수 있으며, 만일 안정한 정규모드 가 어떤 매개변수에서 그 안정성이 바뀐다면 선형이론으로는 설명될 수 없는 새로운 운동이 일어나고 이러한 운동을 분기모드(bifurcation mode)라고 한다. 안정한 정규 모드 및 분기모드를 포함하여 비선형계를 다류는 것을 "정규모드 동역학(normal mode dynamics)"이라고 한다. 정규모드 동역학은 앞에서 언급된 비선형 현상들의 원인규명, 예측, 안정성해석 및 강제진동 해석을 가능하게 한다. 또한 최근에 활발히 연구되고 있는 혼돈운동(chaotic motion)의 해석도 가능하다. 이 글에서는 비선형 진동해석을 위한 정규모드 동역학에 대한 연구동향 및 기본 이론을 살펴 보았고, 그 적용 예를 통하여 실험결과와 비교 고찰 함으로써 정규모드 동역학의 적용성을 서술하여 보았다. 선형이론으로 이해하기 어려운 현상들에 대하여는 비선형의 관점에서 새롭게 접근하 려는 노력이 필요하며 비선형 이론에 대한 연구가 지속적으로 진행되어야 한다. 진행되어야 한다.

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