• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비선형 예측

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Analytical Model for Post Tension Flat Plate Frames (포스트 텐션 플랫 플레이트 골조의 해석모델)

  • Han, Sang-Whan;Ryu, Jong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2007
  • This study developed an analytical model for predicting nonlinear behavior of PT flat plate frames having slab-column connections with and without slab bottom reinforcement passing through the column. The developed model can predict the failure sequence until punching failure occurs. For verifying the analytical model, the test results of PT flat plate slab-column connections were compared with the results of the analysis. Moreover, the results of static pushover test and shaking table test of 2 story PT flat plate frame were compared with analysis results. For evaluating seismic performance of PT flat plate frame, this study conducted nonlinear response history analysis of the 2 story PT flat plate frame with and without slab bottom reinforcement passing through the column under 1940 El Centro ground motion scaled to have pseudo spectral acceleration of 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7g at the fundamental period of the frame. This study observed that as ground motion is more intense, seismic demands for the frame having the connections without slab bottom reinforcement passing through the column are larger than those without slab bottom reinforcement.

Reconfiguration Control Using LMI-based Constrained MPC (선형행렬부등식 기반의 모델예측 제어기법을 이용한 재형상 제어)

  • Oh, Hyon-Dong;Min, Byoung-Mun;Kim, Tae-Hun;Tahk, Min-Jea;Lee, Jang-Ho;Kim, Eung-Tai
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2010
  • In developing modern aircraft, the reconfiguration control that can improve the safety and the survivability against the unexpected failure by partitioning control surfaces into several parts has been actively studied. This paper deals with the reconfiguration control using model predictive control method considering the saturation of control surfaces under the control surface failure. Linearized aircraft model at trim condition is used as the internal model of model predictive control. We propose the controller that performs optimization using LMI (linear matrix inequalities) based semi-definite programming in case that control surface saturation occurs, otherwise, uses analytic solution of the model predictive control. The performance of the proposed control method is evaluated by nonlinear simulation under the flight scenario of control surface failure.

Prediction of golf scores on the PGA tour using statistical models (PGA 투어의 골프 스코어 예측 및 분석)

  • Lim, Jungeun;Lim, Youngin;Song, Jongwoo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2017
  • This study predicts the average scores of top 150 PGA golf players on 132 PGA Tour tournaments (2013-2015) using data mining techniques and statistical analysis. This study also aims to predict the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs. Linear and nonlinear regression methods were used to predict average scores. Stepwise regression, all best subset, LASSO, ridge regression and principal component regression were used for the linear regression method. Tree, bagging, gradient boosting, neural network, random forests and KNN were used for nonlinear regression method. We found that the average score increases as fairway firmness or green height or average maximum wind speed increases. We also found that the average score decreases as the number of one-putts or scrambling variable or longest driving distance increases. All 11 different models have low prediction error when predicting the average scores of PGA Tournaments in 2015 which is not included in the training set. However, the performances of Bagging and Random Forest models are the best among all models and these two models have the highest prediction accuracy when predicting the Top 10 and Top 25 best players in 4 different playoffs.

Improvement of Search Method of Genetic Programing for Wind Prediction MOS (풍속 예측 보정을 위한 Genetic Programing 탐색 기법의 개선)

  • Oh, Seungchul;Seo, Kisung
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2015.07a
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    • pp.1349-1350
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    • 2015
  • 풍속은 다른 기상요소들보다 순간 변동이 심하고 국지성이 강하여 수치 예보 모델만으로 예측의 정확성을 높이기가 어렵다. 기상청의 단기 풍속 예보는 전 지구적 통합 예보모델인 UM(Unified Model)의 예측값에 MOS(Model Output Statictics)를 통한 보정을 수행하며, 보정식의 생성에 다중선형회귀분석 방법을 사용한다. 본 연구자는 유전프로그래밍(Genetic Programming)을 이용한 비선형 회귀분석 기반의 보정식 생성을 통하여 이를 개선한 바 있는데, 본 연구에서는 보다 향상된 성능을 얻기 위하여 GP 기법 측면에서 Automatically Defined Functions과 다군집(Multiple Populations) 수행을 통해 성능을 높이고자 한다.

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Load Forecasting for Lunar New Year's Day and Korean Thanks-Giving Day (연휴에 대한 전력 수요예측)

  • Ku, Bon-Suk;Baek, Young-Sik;Song, Kyung-Bin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2001.11b
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    • pp.256-258
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    • 2001
  • 전력 계통의 운용 계획을 최적화 하기 위해서 수요예측에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 기존의 수요예측 기법의 최대 오차는 특수일이 토요일과 월요일인 경우와 연휴인 경우에 발생한다. 이 중 특수일이 토요일과 월요일인 경우는 퍼지 선형회귀분석법과 상대계수법을 이용하여 우수한 결과를 도출한 바 있다. 구정과 추석은 특수일 중 평일과의 부하 차이가 가장 큰 특수일이며 약 $45{\sim}50%$ 정도가 감소된다. 이러한 부하의 감소 폭은 서서히 줄어서 연휴 당일 4일 후에는 완전히 복구가 되며 연휴 전 부하가 낮아지는 시점은 연휴 당일 3일 전이다. 연휴 예측의 불확실성은 연휴 기간의 길이 변동 및 기타 다양한 변수들에 의한 유동성에 기인한다. 특히 추석의 경우 과거 데이터 이용에 더욱 신중해야 하며 타 특수일에 비해 부하 값의 예측이 힘들다. 또한 직전 평일 대비 추석 연휴의 부하는 변화가 심하게 나타나며 본 논문에서는 퍼지 선형회귀분석법을 기본으로 변형된 알고리즘으로 향상된 예측도를 제시한다.

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Evaluation of Seismic Performance of Mixed Building Structures by using the Nonlinear Displacement Mode Method (비선형 변위모드법을 적용한 복합구조물의 내진성능평가)

  • 김부식;송호산
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2003
  • Though a nonlinear time history analysis may be provided to estimate more exactly the seismic performance of building structure, approximation methods are still needed in the aspect of practicality and simplicity, In converting a multi-story structure to an equivalent SDOF system, the mode vectors of the multi-story structure are assumed as the mode shape in elastic state regardless of elastic or elastic-plastic state. However, the characteristics of displacement mode are also changed after the yielding made in the structural elements, because the structure becomes inelastic in each incremental load step. In this research, a method of converting MDOF system to ESDOF system is presented by using nonlinear displacement mode considering the mode change of structures after the yielding. Also, the accuracy and efficiency of the method of the nonlinear displacement mode method of the estimate of seismic response of Mixed Building Structures were examined by comparing the displacements of the roof level of the multi-story building structures estimated from this converted displacement response of ESDOF with the displacement of the roof level through the nonlinear dynamic analysis of the multi-story building structures subjected to an actual earthquake excitation.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Ultimate Shear Capacity of PC Vertical Joints (PC 수직 접합부의 극한 전단 내력 예측에 대한 인공 신경 회로망의 적용)

  • 김택완;이승창;이병해
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 1996
  • An artificial neural network is a computational model that mimics the biological system of the brain and it consists of a number of interconnected processing units where it can reasonably infer by them. Because the neural network is particularly useful for evaluating systems with a multitude of nonlinear variables, it can be used in experimental results predictions, in structural planning and in optimum design of structures. This paper describes the basic theory related to the neural networks and discusses the applicability of neural networks to predict the ultimate shear capacity of the precast concrete vertical joints by comparing the neural networks with a conventional method such as regression.

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Robust control of a heave compensation system for offshore cranes considering the time-delay (시간 지연을 고려한 해상 크레인의 상하 동요 보상 시스템의 강인 제어)

  • Seong, Hyung-Seok;Choi, Hyeong-Sik
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2017
  • This paper introduces a heave compensation system for offshore crane when it subjected to unexpected disturbances such as ocean waves, tidal currents or winds and their external force. The dynamic model consists of a crane which is considered to behave in the same manner as a rigid body, a hydraulic driven winch, an elastic rope and a payload. To keep the payload from moving upwards and downwards, PD(Proportional-Derivative) control was applied by using linearization. In order to achieve a better performance, the sliding mode control and the nonlinear generalized predictive control algorithm was applied according to the time-delay. As a result, the oscillating amplitude of the payload was reduced by the control algorithm. Considering the time-delay involved in the system to be one second, nonlinear generalized predictive controller with a robust controller was a suitable control algorithm for this heave compensation system because it made the position of te payload reach the desired position with the minimum error. This paper presented a control algorithm using the robust control and its simulation results.

Nonlinear Analytical Model of Unreinforced Masonry Wall using Fiber and Shear Spring Elements (파이버 및 전단 스프링요소를 이용한 비보강 조적벽체의 비선형 해석모델)

  • Hong, Jeong-Mo;Shin, Dong-Hyeon;Kim, Hyung-Joon
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.283-291
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    • 2018
  • This study intends to develop an analytical model of unreinforced masonry(URM) walls for the nonlinear static analysis which has been generally used to evaluate the seismic performance of a building employing URM walls as seismic force-resisting members. The developed model consists of fiber elements used to capture the flexural behavior of an URM wall and a shear spring element implemented to predict its shear response. This paper first explains the configuration of the proposed model and describes how to determine the modeling parameters of fiber and shear spring elements based on the stress-strain curves obtained from existing experimental results of masonry prisms. The proposed model is then verified throughout the comparison of its nonlinear static analysis results with the experimental results of URM walls carried out by other researchers. The proposed model well captures the maximum strength, the initial stiffness, and their resulting load - displacement curves of the URM walls with reasonable resolution. Also, it is demonstrated that the analysis model is capable of predicting the failure modes of the URM walls.

A Neural Network Approach to Modeling PCS Wave Propagation Loss Prediction Using 3D Digital Terrain Maps (지형데이터를 이용한 신경회로망 PCS 전파손실 예측모델)

  • 정성신;양서민;이혁준
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10c
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    • pp.357-359
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    • 1998
  • 무선 통신 환경에서 기지국 안테나를 떠난 전파가 수신안테나에 도달하는 과정 중에 발생하는 전파 손실은 매우 복잡한 비선형 함수이다. 본 논문에서는 신경회로망을 사용한 전파 손실 모델을 제안하고, 3차원 지형 데이터를 이용하여 전파 환경을 반영할 수 있는 특징을 추출하여 이를 신경회로망에 적용함으로써 전파손실 예측모델을 생성하는 방법을 소개한다. 각 필드 측정 데이터에 대한 특징 값을 이용하여 신경회로망을 학습하여 예측모델을 완성한다. 또한, 서울 도심 지역의 실제 PCS 서비스 환경에 대한 실험결과를 통해 제안하는 모델의 우수성을 보인다.

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