• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비선형 예측

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Chaotic Disaggregation of Daily Rainfall Time Series (카오스를 이용한 일 강우자료의 시간적 분해)

  • Kyoung, Min-Soo;Sivakumar, Bellie;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.9
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    • pp.959-967
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    • 2008
  • Disaggregation techniques are widely used to transform observed daily rainfall values into hourly ones, which serve as important inputs for flood forecasting purposes. However, an important limitation with most of the existing disaggregation techniques is that they treat the rainfall process as a realization of a stochastic process, thus raising questions on the lack of connection between the structure of the models on one hand and the underlying physics of the rainfall process on the other. The present study introduces a nonlinear deterministic (and specifically chaotic) framework to study the dynamic characteristics of rainfall distributions across different temporal scales (i.e. weights between scales), and thus the possibility of rainfall disaggregation. Rainfall data from the Seoul station (recorded by the Korea Meteorological Administration) are considered for the present investigation, and weights between only successively doubled resolutions (i.e., 24-hr to 12-hr, 12-hr to 6-hr, 6-hr to 3-hr) are analyzed. The correlation dimension method is employed to investigate the presence of chaotic behavior in the time series of weights, and a local approximation technique is employed for rainfall disaggregation. The results indicate the presence of chaotic behavior in the dynamics of weights between the successively doubled scales studied. The modeled (disaggregated) rainfall values are found to be in good agreement with the observed ones in their overall matching (e.g. correlation coefficient and low mean square error). While the general trend (rainfall amount and time of occurrence) is clearly captured, an underestimation of the maximum values are found.

Flood stage analysis considering the uncertainty of roughness coefficients and discharge for Cheongmicheon watershed (조도계수와 유량의 불확실성을 고려한 청미천 유역의 홍수위 해석)

  • Shin, Sat-Byeol;Park, Jihoon;Song, Jung-Hun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.661-671
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the flood stage considering the uncertainty caused by the river roughness coefficients and discharge. The methodology of this study involved the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) to quantify the uncertainty bounds applying three different storm events. The uncertainty range of the roughness was 0.025~0.040. In case of discharge, the uncertainty stemmed from parameters in stage-discharge rating curve, if h represents stage for discharge Q, which can be written as $Q=A(h-B)^C$. Parameters in rating curve (A, B and C) were estimated by non-linear regression model and assumed by t distribution. The range of parameters in rating curve was 5.138~18.442 for A, -0.524~0.104 for B and 2.427~2.924 for C. By sampling 10,000 parameter sets, Monte Carlo simulations were performed. The simulated stage value was represented by 95% confidence interval. In storm event 1~3, the average bound was 0.39 m, 0.83 m and 0.96 m, respectively. The peak bound was 0.52 m, 1.36 m and 1.75 m, respectively. The recurrence year of each storm event applying the frequency analysis was 1-year, 10-year and 25-year, respectively.

금 나노로드 어레이 박막을 이용한 광학형 바이오 센서 개발

  • Yeom, Se-Hyeok;Lee, Dong-Ik;Sin, Han-Jae;Seo, Chang-Taek
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2014.02a
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    • pp.436-436
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 전 세계적으로 활발히 연구되고 있는 나노바이오센서 분야 중 가장 주목을 받고 있는 LSPR 원리를 이용한 바이오센서를 제작하였다. 금속 나노입자의 국소 표면 플라즈몬 공명현상에 의한 주위환경에 민감하게 반응하는 특성은 고감도 광학형 바이오센서, 화학물질 검출 센서등에 응용된다. 특히 금 나노막대와 같은 1차 나노구조물은 나노막대의 주변 환경 변화에 따라 뚜렷한 플라즈몬 흡수 밴드 변화를 나타냄으로 센서로 적용 했을 때 고감도의 측정이 가능하다. 본 연구에서는 다공성인 알루미늄 양극산화 박막 주형틀을 이용하여 다양한 종횡비를 가지는 금 나노막대를 합성하고, 나노막대 어레이 형태의 박막을 제작하였다. 금 나노막대의 합성은 알루미늄 양극산화막을 사용한 주형제조 방법(template method)을 사용하는 전기화학 증착법을 사용하였다. 우선 부도체인 알루미늄 양극 산화막의 한쪽면을 열증착 장비를 사용하여 금을 증착하여 작업 전극(working electrode)을 형성하였다. 백금 선(platinum wire)을 보조 전극(counter electrode)으로 사용하고 Ag/AgCl 전극을 기준 전극(reference electrode)으로 사용하여 삼전극계(three-electrode system)를 형성하였으며, 금 도금 용액(orotemp 24 gold plating solution, TECHNIC INC.)을 사용하여, 800 mV 전압에서 금 나노 막대를 합성하였다. 금 나노막대의 길이는 테플론 챔버를 통과한 전하량 또는 전기 증착 시간에 비례하여 결정된다. 금 나노막대를 성장시킨 알루미늄 양극산화막을 실리콘 웨이퍼에 은 페이스트를 사용하여 고정시킨 후 수산화나트륨 (NaOH)용액을 사용하여 알루미늄 양극산화막을 녹여내어 수직방향으로 정렬되어 있는 나노 막대 어레이 박막을 제조 하였다. 또한 제작된 금 나노막대 어레이의 광학적 특성을 평가하였다. 본 연구에서와 같이 나노막대를 직경방향으로 측정할 경우, 직경방향의 transverse mode만 측정된다. 금 나노 막대가 알루미늄 양극산화막 안에 포함된 상태로 측정된 금 나노로드 어레이 박막의 광 스펙트럼 분포는 금 나노막대의 가시광영역에서의 흡수 스펙트럼을 측정하였을시 직경 및 길이에 따라 transverse mode의 ${\lambda}$ max (최대 흡광)의 위치가 변화됨을 나타낸다. 실험 결과를 바탕으로 나노막대의 종횡비가 증가함에 따라 흡수 스펙트럼의 transverse mode ${\lambda}$ max가 미약하게 단파장 영역으로 이동하는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 이러한 결과는 원기둥 형태의 금 나노막대의 흡수 스펙트럼에 대한 이론적인 예측과 부합한다. 바이오센서로의 적용 가능성을 확인하기 위하여 자기조립단분자막을 형성하여 항체를 고정하고 CRP에 대한 응답특성을 평가하였다. CRP 항원-항체의 면역반응에 대한 실험 결과 CRP 항원의 농도가 증가함에 따라 넓은 측정범위에서 선형적으로 흡광도가 증가하는 결과를 나타내었으며, CRP 10 fg/ml의 농도까지 검출할 수 있었다. 센서의 선택성을 확인하기 위하여 감지하고자하는 대상물질이 아닌 Tn T 항원을 감지막에 반응시켜 흡광도 변화를 분석하였다. 결과적으로 제작된 센서칩은 선택성을 가지고 측정하고자하는 물질에만 반응함을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과는 다양한 직경을 사용한 부가적인 LSPR현상의 연구에 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Biofilter Model for Robust Biofilter Design: 2. Dynamic Biofilter Model (강인한 바이오필터설계를 위한 바이오필터모델: 2. 동적 바이오필터모델)

  • Lee, Eun Ju;Song, Hae Jin;Lim, Kwang-Hee
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.155-161
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    • 2012
  • A dynamic biofilter model was suggested to integrate the effect of biofilter-medium adsorption capacity on the removal efficiency of volatile organic compound (VOC) contained in waste air. In particular, the suggested biofilter model is composed of four components such as biofilm, gas phase, sorption volume and adsorption phase and is capable of predicting the unsteady behavior of biofilter-operation. The process-lumping model previously suggested was limited in the application for the treatment of waste air since it was derived under the assumption that the adsorbed amount of VOC equilibrated with biofilter-media would be proportional to the concentration of dissolved VOC in the sorption volume of biofilter-media. Therefore a Freundlich adsorption isotherm was integrated into a robust biofilter process-lumping model applicable to a wide range of VOC concentration. The values of model parameters related to biofilter-medium adsorption were obtained from the dynamic adsorption column experiments in the preceding article and literature survey. Furthermore a separate biofilter experiment was conducted to treat waste air containing ethanol and the experimental result was compared with the model predictions with various values of Thiele modulus (${\phi}$). The obtained value of Thiele modulus (${\phi}$) was close to 0.03.

Analytical Analysis of Segmented Arc Plasma Torch for Plasma Wind Tunnel Facility (플라즈마 풍동 시설용 분절형 아크 플라즈마 토치의 이론적 설계변수 해석)

  • Seo, Jun-Ho;Choi, Soo-Seok;Choi, Seong-Man;Hong, Bong-Guen
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2011
  • A parametric study is conducted for the design of segmented arc plasma torch with the input power and current of 0.4 MW and 300 A, respectively. For this purpose, we use the analytical relationship between input power, current condition, plasma temperature, inner diameter (R) and length (L) of the torch constrictor based on arc channel model. The results reveal that arc plasma temperatures increase monotonically as ��L increases or R decreases for the ranges of R ${\leq}$ 7.5 mm and L ${\leq}$ 1.25 m. For larger valuse of ��R and L than 7.5 mm and 1.25 m, respectively, however, they show non-linear behavior corresponding to the variations of ��L, which stands for the generation of unstable arc plasma. From this parametric study, optimum ranges of R and L are suggested as 5.5 mm ${\leq}$ R ${\leq}$ 7.5 mm and 0.25 m ${\leq}$ L ${\leq}$ 0.5 m for 0.4 MW class segmented arc plasma torch, under which stable arc plasma can be achieved at the input currents of ~300 A.

A Study on the Development and the Verification of Engineering Structure Design Framework based on Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM) (신경반응표면을 이용한 공학 구조물 설계 프레임워크 구축 및 검증에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Chul;Shin, Sung-Chul;Kim, Soo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.46-51
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    • 2014
  • The most important process of engineering system optimal design is to identify the relationship between the design variables and system response. In case of the system optimization, Response Surface Method (RSM) is widely used. The optimization process of RSM generates the design space using the typical alternative candidates and finds the optimal design point in the generated design space. By changing the optimal point depending on the configuration of the design space, it is important to generate the design space. Therefor in this study, the design space is generated by using the relationship between design variables and system response based on Neuro-Response Surface Method (NRSM). And I try to construct the framework for optimal shape design based on NRSM that the optimum shape can be predicted using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II (NSGA-II) within the generated design space. In order to verify the usefulness of the constructed framework, we applied the nonlinear mathematical function problem. In this study, we can solve the constraints of time in the optimization process for the engineering problem and effective to determine the optimal design was possible. by using the generated framework for optimal shape design based on NRSM. In the future research, we try to apply the optimization problem for Naval Architectural & Ocean Engineering based on the results of this study.

Spatial Downscaling of Grid Precipitation Using Support Vector Machine Regression (SVM 회귀 모형을 활용한 격자 강우량 상세화 기법)

  • Moon, Heewon;Baik, Jongjin;Hwang, Sukhwan;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.1095-1105
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    • 2014
  • A spatial downscaling method using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) Regression for 25 km Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Monthly precipitation is proposed. The nonlinear relationship among hydrometeorological variables and precipitation was effectively depicted by the SVM for predicting downscaled grid precipitation. The accuracy of spatially downscaled precipitation was estimated by comparing with rain gauge data from sixty-four stations and found to be improved than the original TRMM data in overall. Especially the positive bias of the original TRMM data was effectively removed after the downscaling procedure. The spatial distributions of 25 km and 1 km grid precipitation were generally similar, while the local spatial trend was better detected by 1 km grid precipitation. The downscaled grid data derived from the proposed method can be applied in hydrological modelling for higher accuracy and further be studied for developing optimized downscaling method incorporation other regression methods.

A Study on Estimation of Systolic Blood Pressure using PTT (PTT를 이용한 수축기 혈압의 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Park E. K.;Lee S. M.;Han Y. H.;Lee J. Y.;Kwon S. Y.;Kim I. Y.;Kim Sun I.
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.605-609
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    • 2004
  • Blood pressure (BP) is one of the important physiological parameters for diagnosing cardiovascula diseases by means of noninvasive method. Existing noninvasive methods for measuring arterial BP have to use cuff and difficult in measuring arterial BP continuously. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and pulse transit time (PTT) have a kind of inverse relationship. We acquired PTT data when subjects were in relaxation and also after exercise. We performed the linear regression analysis for making the regression equations for each subject and the regression equation for all subjects. We compared the estimated SBP with the measured SBP to check the accuracy of our regression equations. From the result, the regression equations for each subject was appropriate according to the American National Standards Institute of the Association of the Advancement of Medical Instrument (ANSI/AAMI) which says that BP devices should have ±5mmHg mean of error and 8mmHg standard deviation of error. However, the regression equation for all subjects was not proper to ANSI/AAMI recommendation. The result means that, without cuff, we can continuously estimate each subject's SBP through PTT and indivisual calibration.

Lightweight Design of an Outer Tie Rod Using Meta-Model Based Optimization Technique (메타모델기반최적화를 이용한 아우터타이로드의 경량화 설계)

  • Kim, Young-Jun;Park, Soon-Hyeong;Lee, Kwon-Hee;Park, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.7754-7760
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    • 2015
  • The outer tie rod is one of the part of steering system, the optimization process was executed to find the lightweight design. The inner tie rod was considered in the optimum design of an outer tie rod. it could be closer to the test condition than in the case of considering outer tie rod only. The aluminum forging material was considered as a weight reduction proposal. The target of optimization was the shape of the minimum weight to resist at the load of buckling. RSM and Kriging interpolation method were applied as a optimization method to consider the nonlinear shape optimization problem. Then, 16.3%, 16.6% of weight reduction was obtained from the result comparing with that of the initial model. The results of meta model optimization was compared with that of finite element method. The error values of buckling load estimation were 2.6%, 2.04%. and those of weight estimation were 0.17%, 0.13%. Therefore, it seemed that the result of Kriging model could be obtained closer to optimum value than that of RSM model.

Optimization Method for the Design of LCD Back-Light Unit (LCD Back-Light Unit 설계를 위한 최적화 기법)

  • Seo Heekyung;Ryu Yangseon;Choi Joonsoo;Hahn Kwang-Soo;Kim Seongcheol
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 2005
  • Various types of ray-tracing methods are used to predict the quantity measures of radiation illumination, the uniformity of illumination, radiation performance of LCD BLU(Hack-Light Unit). The uniformity of radiation illumination is one of the most important design factor of BLU and is usually controlled by the diffusive-ink pattern printed on the bottom of light-guide panel of BLU. Therefore it is desirable to produce an improved (ideally, the optimal) ink pattern to achieve the best uniformity of radiation illumination. In this paper, we applied the Welder-Mead simplex-search method among various direct search method to compute the optimal ink pattern. Direct search methods are widely used to optimize the functions which are often highly nonlinear, unpredictably discontinuous, and nondifferentiable, The ink-pattern controlling the uniformity of radiation illumination is one type of these functions. In this paper, we found that simplex search methods are well suited to computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. In extensive numerical testing, we have found the simplex search method to be reasonably efficient and reliable at computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. The result also suggests that optimization can improve the functionality of simulation tools which are used to design LCD BLU.