• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비모수 모형

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The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Automobile Industry (국내 자동차산업의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Seo, Beom;Kim, Il-Gon;Park, Ji-Hun;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2018
  • This study explores an analytical mathematical model designed to estimate the optimal debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry, which has a more significant effect on the national economy than that of other industries, and attempts to estimate the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model is based on ROA and ROE which uses the debt ratio as an independent variable and employs ROS, TAT, and NFCL as the related parameters. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio is usually defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROA and ROE and is calculated using analytical procedures, such as by adding an equation that considers the debt ratio and the linearity relationship to the analytical model. This is because the optimal debt ratio can be calculated reliably by making use of an estimated value within a certain range, which is derived from more than two calculations rather than a single estimation starting from one calculation formula. In this study, for the estimation of the optimal debt ratio, the ROA and ROE are expressed as a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as the independent variable. Using this analysis procedure, the optimal debt ratio obtained using the data from the Korean automobile industry over a sixteen year period, which would optimize the profitability of the Korean automobile industry, was found to be 188% of the debt ratio in the ROA and 213% of the debt ratio in the ROE. This result was obtained by overcoming the problem of the reliability of the estimation value in spite of the limitations of the logical theory of this study, and can be interpreted as meaning that maintaining a debt ratio of 188% to 213% can enhance the profitability and reduce the risks in the Korean automobile industry. Furthermore, this indicates that the existing debt ratio of the Korean automobile industry is lower than the optimal value within the estimated range. Consequently, it is necessary for corporations to change their future debt ratio policies, given that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability, and to take into account the characteristics of the specific industry.

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production and Adaptation Method in Korea as Evaluated by Simulation Study (생육모의 연구에 의한 한반도에서의 기후변화에 따른 벼 생산성 및 적응기술 평가)

  • Lee, Chung-Kuen;Kim, Junwhan;Shon, Jiyoung;Yang, Woon-Ho;Yoon, Young-Hwan;Choi, Kyung-Jin;Kim, Kwang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.207-221
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    • 2012
  • Air temperature in Korea has increased by $1.5^{\circ}C$ over the last 100 years, which is nearly twice the global average rate during the same period. Moreover, it is projected that such change in temperature will continue in the 21st century. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice production and adaptation methods in Korea. Climate data for the baseline (1971~2000) and the three future climate (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100) at fifty six sites in South Korea under IPCC SRES A1B scenario were used as the input to the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Six experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the combined effects of climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, and cropping season on rice production. We found that the average production in 2071~2100 would decrease by 23%, 27%, and 29% for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were fixed. In contrast, predicted yield reduction was ~0%, 6%, and 7%, for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were changed. Analysis of variation suggested that climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, cropping season, and rice maturing type contributed 60, 10, 12, and 2% of rice yield, respectively. In addition, regression analysis suggested 14~46 and 53~86% of variations in rice yield were explained by grain number and filled grain ratio, respectively, when cropping season was fixed. On the other hand, 46~78 and 22~53% of variations were explained respectively with changing cropping season. It was projected that sterility caused by high temperature would have no effect on rice yield. As a result, rice yield reduction in the future climate in Korea would resulted from low filled grain ratio due to high growing temperature during grain-filling period because the $CO_2$ fertilization was insufficient to negate the negative effect of climatic warming. However, adjusting cropping seasons to future climate change may alleviate the rice production reduction by minimizing negative effect of climatic warming without altering positive effect of $CO_2$ fertilization, which improves weather condition during the grain-filling period.

CO2 Emission and Productivity of Fossil-fueled Power Plants: A Luenberger Indicator Approach (CO2 배출량을 감안한 화력발전소의 생산성 변화 분석: Luenberger지수 접근법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Sang
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.733-752
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    • 2010
  • This study applies the Luenberger indicator approach to estimate productivity of the Korean fossil-fueled power plants. A panel data set of 25 power plants was used. The method incorporates $CO_2$ emission as an undesirable output and shows that ignoring $CO_2$ emission overestimates the productivity change. There are two sources of overestimation. First, the usual method estimates productivity change ignoring the increase in $CO_2$ emission that occurred during the study period. Second, the productivity change estimated by the usual method that does not incorporate $CO_2$ emission is very sensitively affected by the change in operation rate. The paper decomposes the productivity change into the efficiency change and the technical change. The results show that the two sources contribute to the productivity change almost equally. It is also shown that the size and the pattern of productivity change are dependent on the plants' fuel types. Non-LNG power plants which saved their energy consumption and thereby reduced their $CO_2$ emission have achieved relatively high rate of productivity improvement.

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Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Hwang, Byoung-Soh;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Modeling the Effect of Consideration Set-Based Reference Price: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach (고려상품군을 반영한 준거가격효과의 모형화: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2006
  • A couple of previous studies have warned against the use of homogeneous choice models in assessing the effect of reference price since unaccounted for response heterogeneity may result in spurious reference price effects(Chang, Siddarth and Weinberg 1999; Bell and Lattin 2000). According to Meyer and Kahn(1991), not accounting for consideration set heterogeneity may also bias the effect parameters in the choice model. Therefore, failure to account for these two sources of bias, in fact, have cast doubt on the empirical support for reference price effects in general. In view of aforementioned potential sources of bias, the author investigates the robustness of loss aversion effect in the reference-dependent model after accounting for heterogeneity in response as well as consideration set. The proposed model defines individual household's consideration set based on the posterior distribution of preference obtained from the Empirical Bayes approach. In addition, the same posterior distribution is used to form household-specific reference prices. Response heterogeneity correction is carried out via the Latent Class approach. The proposed model outperforms the Reference-Dependent model that includes the reference price measure most often employed in the previous studies. This implies that as a way of simplifying decision task, consumers restrict their consideration set to a subset of available brands not only in making a brand choice but also in forming reference prices.

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A Meta-analysis of Ambient Air Pollution in Relation to Daily Mortality in Seoul, $1991\sim1995$ (메타분석 방법을 적용한 서울시 대기오염과 조기사망의 상관성 연구 (1991년$\sim$1995년))

  • Dockery, Douglas W.;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Chung, Yong;Lee, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.177-182
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    • 1999
  • Objectives: To reexamine the association between air pollution and daily mortality in Seoul, Korea using a method of meta-analysis with the data filed for 1991 through 1995. Methods: A separate Poisson regression analysis on each district within the metropolitan area of Seoul was conducted to regress daily death counts on levels of each ambient air pollutant, such as total suspended particulates (TSP), sulfur dioxide $(SO_2)$, and ozone $(O_3)$, controlling for variability in the weather condition. We calculated a weighted mean as a meta-analysis summary of the estimates and its standard error. Results: We found that the p value from each pollutant model to test the homogeneity assumption was small (p<0.01) because of the large disparity among district-specific estimates. Therefore, all results reported here were estimated from the random effect model. Using the weighted mean that we calculated, the mortality at a $100{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in a 3-day moving average of TSP levels was 1.034 (95% Cl 1.009-1.059). The mortality was estimated to increase 6% (95% Cl 3-10%) and 3% (95% Cl 0-6%) with each 50 ppb increase for 9-day moving average of SO2 and 1-hr maximum O3, respectively. Conclusions: Like most of air pollution epidemiologic studies, this meta-analysis cannot avoid fleeing from measurement misclassification since no personal measurement was taken. However, we can expect that a measurement bias be reduced in a district-specific estimate since a monitoring station is hefter representative cf air quality of the matched district. The similar results to those from the previous studios indicated existence of health effect of air pollution at current levels in many industrialized countries, including Korea.

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Analysis of the 2015 reform plan of government employees pension system (GEPS) through monte carlo simulations (모의실험을 통한 2015년 공무원 연금제도 개정안의 효과분석)

  • Lee, Jieun;Song, Seongjoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2016
  • Due to the increasing fiscal burden and structural unbalanced premium/benefit costs, the new reform on the government employees pension system (GEPS) was considered even after the recent reform in 2009. This article examines the various effects of recent amendment in 2015 on GEPS using a simple probabilistic model. We consider effects on both sides, the pensioners and the government. First of all, the expected net value of pension payment for an individual employee was calculated based on the supposed survival distribution. The fairness of individual pension holders was compared using the benefit-cost ratio. Secondly, from pension system users' point of view, the default probability and the government subsidy were examined by Monte-carlo simulation. From the simulation experiment, we could see that the 2015 reform plan indeed reduces the default probability and the size of the fiscal burden of government by increasing the premium and decreasing the benefit. However, the size of the effect is not very standout at this moment because the number of new employees who are fully subject to the reform will be much smaller than the number of previous employees for a while. Thus, the effect of the reform is expected to appear in a slow manner.

The Analysis of Forest Fire Fuel Structure Through the Development of Crown Fuel Vertical Distribution Model: A Case Study on Managed and Unmanaged Stands of Pinus densiflora in the Gyeongbuk Province (수관연료 수직분포모델 개발을 통한 산불연료구조 분석: 경북지역의 소나무림 산림시업지와 비시업지를 대상으로)

  • Lee, Sun Joo;Kwon, Chun Geun;Kim, Sung Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2021
  • This study compared and analyzed the effects of forest tending works on the vertical distribution of wildfire fuel loads on Pinus densiflora stands in Gyeongbuk province. The study sites were located in Youngju and Bonghwa in Pinus densiflora stands. A total of 10 sample trees were collected for the development of the crown fuel vertical distribution model. The 6th NFI (National Forest Inventory) selected a sample point that only extracted from managed and unmanaged stands of Pinus densiflora in the Gyeongbuk province. The fitness index (F.I.) of the two models developed was 0.984 to 0.989, with the estimated parameter showing statistical significance (P<0.05). A s a results, the vertical distribution of wildfire fuel loads range of unmanaged stands was from 1m to 11m with the largest distribution at point 5m at the tree height. On the other hand, the vertical distribution of wildfire fuel loads range of the managed stands was from 1m to 15m with the largest distribution at the point of 8m at the tree height. The canopy bulk density was 0.16kg/㎥ for the managed stands and 0.25kg/㎥ for the unmanaged stands, unmanaged stands were about 1.6 times more than managed stands. This result is expected to be available for simulation through the implementation of the 3D model as crown fuel was analyzed in three dimensions.

Development and Verification of NEMO based Regional Storm Surge Forecasting System (NEMO 모델을 이용한 지역 폭풍해일예측시스템 개발 및 검증)

  • La, Nary;An, Byoung Woong;Kang, KiRyong;Chang, Pil-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2020
  • In this study we established an operational storm-surge system for the northwestern pacific ocean, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean). The system consists of the tide and the surge models. For more accurate storm surge prediction, it can be completed not only by applying more precise depth data, but also by optimal parameterization at the boundaries of the atmosphere and ocean. To this end, we conducted several sensitivity experiments related to the application of available bathymetry data, ocean bottom friction coefficient, and wind stress and air pressure on the ocean surface during August~September 2018 and the case of typhoon SOULIK. The results of comparison and verification are presented here, and they are compared with POM (Princeton Ocean Model) based Regional Tide Surge forecasting Model (RTSM). The results showed that the RTSM_NEMO model had a 29% and 20% decrease in Bias and RMSE respectively compared to the RTSM_POM model, and that the RTSM_NEMO model had a lower overall error than the RTSM_POM model for the case of typhoon SOULIK.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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