• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비모수 모형

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Effects of Financial College Tuition Support by Korean Parents using a Hierarchical Bayes Model (계층적 베이즈 모형을 이용한 대학등록금에 대한 부모님의 경제적 지원 영향 분석)

  • Oh, Man-Suk;Oh, Hyun Sook;Oh, Min Jung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.267-280
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    • 2013
  • College tuition is a significant economic, social, and political issue in Korea. We conduct a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical model to address the factors related to college tuition based on a survey data collected by Statistics Korea. A binary response variable is selected depending on if more than 70% of tuition costs are supported by parents, and a hierarchical Probit model is constructed with areas as groups. A set of explanatory variables is selected from a factor analysis of available variables in the survey. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate parameters. From the analysis results, income and stress are significantly related to college tuition support from parents. Parents with high income tend to support children's college tuition and students with parents' financial support tend to be mentally less stressed; subsequently, this shows that the economic status of parents significantly affects the mental health of college students. Gender, a healthy life style, and college satisfaction are not significant factors. Comparing areas in terms of the degrees of correlation between stress/income and tuition support from parents, students in Kangwon-do are the most mentally stressed when parents' support is limited; in addition, the positive correlation between parents support and income is stronger in big cities compared to provincial areas.

An Analysis of Eating Out Expenditure Behavior of Urban Households by Decile Group (도시가계의 10분위별 외식비 지출행태 분석)

  • Choi, Mun-Yong;Mo, Soo-Won;Lee, Kwang-Bae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.7820-7830
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    • 2015
  • Korean households' demand for food consumed away from home is on the steady increase. The ratio of eating-out expenditure of the household income, however, tends to decrease recently irrespective of income groups. This paper, therefore, aims to analyse the food-away-from-home expenditures of salary and wage earners' households by income decile group. The eating-out expenditure is modelled as a function of household income and then estimated using econometric methods such as regression, rolling regression, impulse response, and variance decomposition of forecast error. The regression results indicate that the higher the income decile group is, the lower the income elasticity of eating-out expenditure is, and the high income groups enjoy seasonal eating-out, the low groups do not. The coefficients of dynamic rolling regression are much smaller than those of static one, meaning that households tend to decrease the eating-out expenditure of their income. The impulse response analysis suggests that the eating-out expenditure increase of higher income groups lasts long relative to that of lower income groups. The variance decomposition, also, shows that household income plays much more important role in determining eating-out expenditure at the higher income groups than at the lower income groups.

Construction of vehicle classification estimation model from the TCS data by using bootstrap Algorithm (붓스트랩 기법을 이용한 TCS 데이터로부터 차종별 교통량 추정모형 구축)

  • 노정현;김태균;차경준;박영선;남궁성;황부연
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2002
  • Traffic data by vehicle classification is difficult for mutual exchange of data due to the different vehicle classification from each other by the data sources; as a result, application of the data is very limited. In Particular. in case of TCS vehicle classification in national highways, passenger car, van and truck are mixed in one category and the practical usage is very low. The research standardize the vehicle classification to convert other data and develop the model which can estimate national highway traffic data by the standardized vehicle classification from the raw traffic data obtained at the highway tollgates. The tollgates are categorized into several groups by their features and the model estimates traffic data by the standardized vehicle classification by using the point estimation and bootstrap algorithm. The result indicates that both of the two methods above have the significant level. When considering the bias of the extreme value by the sample size, the bootstrap algorithm is more sophisticated. Using result of this study, we is expect the usage improvement of TCS data and more specific comparison between the freeway traffic investigation and link volume on freeway using the TCS data.

The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Agricultural Corporations (한국 농업법인의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Seok;Seo, Beom;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2017
  • This study employs an analytical mathematical model to estimate the optimal debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations, more sensitive to the government debt ratio policy compared to other industries, and the estimation of the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model utilizes the equation for ROE, with the debt ratio as an independent variable, and related parameters include ROS, TAT, and NFCL. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio standard is defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROE by analytical procedures such as adding an equation concerning the debt ratio and a linearity relationship to the analytical model, and from these equations, a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as an independent variable describes the ROE. This methodemploys fourteen years of corporate data. Results show that 138% of debt ratio is the optimal debt ratio to increase the ROE of the corporations, which implies that the existing debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations is higher than optimal. Consequently, it is required for authorities to change future debt ratio policies in view that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability.Management should emphasize characteristics of the specific industry rather than standardized judgements based on numerical indexes.

Expert-novice differences of mental representation and problem solving strategy in mechanics problems (물리 문제에 있어서 전문가-초보자 간의 내적표상과 해결방안의 차이)

  • Park, Yun-Bae
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 1988
  • 과학교육에서의 문제해결력의 강조는 그 긴 역사를 가지고 있으나, 인지 심리학에서의 정보처리 모형을 사용한 문제해결과정의 분석이 사용되면서 그 교수가능성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 하나의 탐색연구로써 학습자들이 물리문제를 해결하려는 과정에서 그 문제를 자기나름으로 이해하여 만든 내적표상과 동원한 해결방안이 문제해결에 어떤 관련이 있는지를 알아내보려고 한다. 물리전공 박사과정 학생 3명을 전문가로, 고등학생 2명과 대학 1년생 4명, 모두 6명을 초보자로 삼아 역학내용을 다룬 세 문제를 소리내어 푸는 과정을 개인별로 녹음하여 그 문제해결과정들을 분석하였으며, 학생들의 사고수준을 알기위해 사고 수준검사가 실시 되었다. 주로 질적 분석을 사용했으나 그 결론을 뒷받침하기위해 비모수통계방법이 사용되었다. (유의수준 . 10) 밝혀진 결론은 다음과 같다. 1) 내적표상은 피험자와 문제에 따라 각각 달랐다. 초보자들은 모두 한가지 표상을 세 문제에 걸쳐 계속 사용한데 반해, 2명의 전문가는 문제에 따라 다른 표상을 사용하였다. 이러한 표상의 형태에 따라 문제해결결과가 달랐다. 즉,일-에너지 표상형태를 사용한 피험자가 더 나은 결과를 얻는것으로 나타났다. 2) 문제해결방안에 있어서는 전문가들은 세문제에 걸쳐 계속하여 지식-개발 방안을 사용하였으나 초보자들은 문제에 따라 다른 방안들을 동원하였다. 지식-개발 방안을 사용한 경우가 다른 것들에 비해 더 나은 결과를 얻는 것으로 나타났다. 3) 사고 수준검사(하위검사 또는 전체)의 접수와 문제해결과정 변인들-특히 내적표상의 형태, 문제해결방안의 종류, 목표확인 그리고 문제 해결력-간에는 유의미한 관련이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 4) 그외 속도와 가속도 개념의 혼동, 마찰력 개념의 부정확 등이 공통적으로 범하는 실수였다. 본 연구가 과학교육 실제에 주는 함의로는 내적표상, 문제해결방안의 훈련을 통한 문제해결력의 향상을 들 수 있겠으며 이를 위한 세부연구가 실행되어야 할 것이다.

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Selection of Performance of Bias Correction using TOPSIS method (TOPSIS 방법을 이용한 편의 보정 방법 선정)

  • Song, Young Hoon;Chung, Eun Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.306-306
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    • 2019
  • 전지구적 기온상승으로 인해 미래기후의 관한 연구가 중요시 되고 있다. 위와 같은 현상으로 인하여 다양한 기후변화 연구가 진행되고 있다. 미래기후 연구에는 GCM (General Circulation Model) 모의 결과가 이용된다. 격자 자료로 구성된 GCM은 연구 지점으로 지역적 상세화와 연구지역의 관측자료 사이의 편이 보정(bias correction)이 필수적이다. 위와 같은 근거로 편이 보정 방법의 선택은 매우 중요하며 편의 보정의 방법에 따라서 결과가 다르게 도출될 수 있다. 또한 국내외 연구에서는 다양한 상세화 기법과 편이 보정 기법을 분석 및 평가하는 연구가 진행되고 있으며, 편의 기법 중 대표적인 기법인 Quantile mapping과 Random Forest 기법이 있다. Quantile mapping 기법은 GCM의 과거 모의 데이터와의 편이 보정에 있어서 우수하게 나타났으나, GCM 데이터의 미래 예측 기간(2010년~2018년)까지의 데이터에서는 극한 강수를 정량적으로 분석 가능한 Random Forest 기법이 편이 보정 과정에서 성능이 우수할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 21개 관측소를 기준으로 총 4개의 GCM(GISS, CSIRO, CCSM4,MIROC5)의 과거 기간 자료(1970년~2005년)를 실제 관측소에서 관측된 강수량을 편의 보정하는 방법에 있어서 편의 보정 기법의 성능을 비교한 결과와 GCM 미래 예측 기간 자료(2010년~2018년)에서의 편의 보정 기법의 성능 결과를 비교하였다. 이를 토대로 편이 보정 기법의 결과를 6개의 평가지수를 이용하여 정량적으로 분석하였으며, 다기준의사결정기법인 TOPSIS(Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution)를 이용하여 편이 보정기법들의 성능에 있어서 우선순위를 선정하였다. 본 연구에서 편이 보정 방법으로 Quantile mapping 방법을 사용했으며, Quantile mapping의 기법으로는 비모수 변환법(non-parametric transformation)과 분포기반 변환법(distribution derived transformation)이 사용되었다. 또한 머신러닝 방법 중 하나인 Random Forest 방법을 동시에 사용하여 결과를 비교하였다. 또한 GCM 자료가 격자식으로 제공하고 있기 때문에 관측소 강수량도 공간적으로 환산하여야 하는데, 본 연구에서는 역거리 가중치법(inverse distance weighting, IDW) 방법을 이용하였다.

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A Study on the Usability Evaluation and Improvement of Voice Tag Reader for an Visually Impaired Person (시각장애인 대상 음성태그리더기의 사용성 평가 및 개선 방안 연구)

  • Sora Kim;Yongyun Cho;Taehee Yong
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • This study was conducted for the purpose of improving the usability of the product through the usability evaluation of the voice tag reader to improve the life convenience of the visually impaired. Perceived usability evaluation was conducted for 19 evaluation items based on the evaluation model considering the usability principle and the characteristics of the visually impaired. A total of 50 participants were included for the analysis. As a result of the perceived usability evaluation of the visually impaired, the safety of the voice tag reader, voice and sound quality, and accuracy of voice information were relatively satisfactory. It was found that the reader received a low evaluation in terms of efficiency in use, including the size and weight of the reader, and the convenience of carrying and storing. For the usability improvement, the procedure for using a product needs to be more simplified, and it would be helpful to input and supply tags for commonly used objects in advance.

Predicting the Goshawk's habitat area using Species Distribution Modeling: Case Study area Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea (종분포모형을 이용한 참매의 서식지 예측 -충청북도를 대상으로-)

  • Cho, Hae-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Shin, Man-Seok;Kang, Tehan;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.333-343
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    • 2015
  • This research aims at identifying the goshawk's possible and replaceable breeding ground by using the MaxEnt prediction model which has so far been insufficiently used in Korea, and providing evidence to expand possible protection areas for the goshawk's breeding for the future. The field research identified 10 goshawk's nests, and 23 appearance points confirmed during the 3rd round of environmental research were used for analysis. 4 geomorphic, 3 environmental, 7 distance, and 9 weather factors were used as model variables. The final environmental variables were selected through non-parametric verification between appearance and non-appearance coordinates identified by random sampling. The final predictive model (MaxEnt) was structured using 10 factors related to breeding ground and 7 factors related to appearance area selected by statistics verification. According to the results of the study, the factor that affected breeding point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from mixforest, density-class on the forest map and relief energy. The factor that affected appearance point structure model the most was temperature seasonality, followed by distance from rivers and ponds, distance from agricultural land and gradient. The nature of the goshawk's breeding environment and habit to breed inside forests were reflected in this modeling that targets breeding points. The northern central area which is about $189.5 km^2$(2.55 %) is expected to be suitable breeding ground. Large cities such as Cheongju and Chungju are located in the southern part of Chungcheongbuk-do whereas the northern part of Chungcheongbuk-do has evenly distributed forests and farmlands, which helps goshawks have a scope of influence and food source to breed. Appearance point modeling predicted an area of $3,071 km^2$(41.38 %) showing a wider ranging habitat than that of the breeding point modeling due to some limitations such as limited moving observation and non-consideration of seasonal changes. When targeting the breeding points, a specific predictive area can be deduced but it is difficult to check the points of nests and it is impossible to reflect the goshawk's behavioral area. On the other hand, when targeting appearance points, a wider ranging area can be covered but it is less accurate compared to predictive breeding point since simple movements and constant use status are not reflected. However, with these results, the goshawk's habitat can be predicted with reasonable accuracy. In particular, it is necessary to apply precise predictive breeding area data based on habitat modeling results when enforcing an environmental evaluation or establishing a development plan.

Impact of Heterogeneous Dispersion Parameter on the Expected Crash Frequency (이질적 과분산계수가 기대 교통사고건수 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.5585-5593
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    • 2014
  • This study tested the hypothesis that the significance of the heterogeneous dispersion parameter in safety performance function (SPF) used to estimate the expected crashes is affected by the endogenous heterogeneous prior distributions, and analyzed the impacts of the mis-specified dispersion parameter on the evaluation results for traffic safety countermeasures. In particular, this study simulated the Poisson means based on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters and estimated the SPFs using both the negative binomial (NB) model and the heterogeneous negative binomial (HNB) model for analyzing the impacts of the model mis-specification on the mean and dispersion functions in SPF. In addition, this study analyzed the characteristics of errors in the crash reduction factors (CRFs) obtained when the two models are used to estimate the posterior means and variances, which are essentially estimated through the estimated hyper-parameters in the heterogeneous prior distributions. The simulation study results showed that a mis-estimation on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters through the NB model does not affect the coefficient of the mean functions, but the variances of the prior distribution are seriously mis-estimated when the NB model is used to develop SPFs without considering the heterogeneity in dispersion. Consequently, when the NB model is used erroneously to estimate the prior distributions with heterogeneous dispersion parameters, the mis-estimated posterior mean can produce large errors in CRFs up to 120%.

The Effects of Past Success on Performance: The Mediating Role of Self-Efficacy, Burnout, and Engagement (과거성공이 성과에 미치는 영향 : 자아효능감, 소진, 몰입의 매개역할을 중심으로)

  • Im, Chang-Hee
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.49-78
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    • 2010
  • Traditionally, self-efficacy, burnout and engagement are defined as work related states of mind, and formally speaking, students are not employees. But, we assume that from a psychological perspective, student core activities can be considered work. Therefore, based on SCT(social cognitive theory), we examine the mediating role of self-efficacy in the prediction of student burnout and engagement, and also the mediation of burnout and engagement between self-efficacy and performance(GPA). There is no research to date wether there would be mediating role of these variables between past success and performance. These effects were analysed in the context of mediating role of the variables in a university in a sample of 438 students. This study utilized a convenience sample drawn from various major scholar area. Results of structural equation modeling analyses were consist with a full mediation model in which academic past success predicts self-efficacy, which in turn, predicts student burnout and engagement. Also our proposed model showed that burnout and engagement are partial or full mediating variables between self-efficacy and performance. Our study's findings provide evidence that engagement fully accounted for the relationship between self-efficacy and performance, and burnout partially explained the relationships. These findings aligns with the general theorizing supported by JD-R model and SCT(social cognitive theory). More specifically, it builds on the JD-R literature as it tests one of the proposed mechanisms in the relationship between job resources and work engagement. Implications of study are discussed, together with limitations and suggestions for future research.

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