• Title/Summary/Keyword: 비모수적 추정

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이상치를 감안한 확률강우분포의 매개변수 추정방법의 적용성 검토

  • Kwon, You Jeong;Seo, Yongwon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.319-319
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    • 2018
  • 최근 전 세계적으로 극한수문사상의 증가로 인한 피해의 규모와 빈도가 잦아지고 있다. 기후변화에 관한 정부 간 협의체(IPCC)5차 보고서에 따르면 우리나라는 모든 시나리오 하에서 평균 강수량이 증가하는 지역으로 분류되었다. 특히 강우와 태풍피해가 잦은 7월에서 9월의 강우량이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타나며 이는 현재보다 극한수문사상이 더욱 빈번하게 일어날 것이라 예상할 수 있다. 하지만 기존의 매개변수 추정방법은 이상치 산정기준을 넘어서는 극치를 제외하고 확률강우량을 산정하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 이러한 기존의 매개변수 추정방법 보다 극한값에 강건한 MDPDE(minimum density power divergence estimator)를 이용한 매개변수 추정을 사용하여 우리나라 60개 강우관측소의 과거 강우관측자료에 대한 최적조율모수에 대한 빈도별 확률강우량을 추정하여 기존의 방법으로 산정한 확률강우량과 비교하였다. 이상치로 분류할 수 있는 극한수문사상이 발생한 우리나라 31개소에 대하여 MDPDE의 적용성을 검토한 결과 기존의 매개변수 추정방법에 비해 이상치를 포함한 100년 빈도 확률강우량이 약13.3% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.

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The Comparative Study for ENHPP Software Reliability Growth Model based on Modified Coverage Function (변형 커버리지 함수를 고려한 ENHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Kim, Pyong-Koo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2007
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant. monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. Accurate predictions of software release times. and estimation of the reliability and availability of a software product require quality of a critical element of the software testing process : test coverage. This model called Enhanced non-homogeneous Poission process(ENHPP). In this paper, exponential coverage and S-type model was reviewed, proposes modified(the superosition and mixture) model, which make out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method. model selection based on SSE statistics for the sake of efficient model, was employed.

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The Study for ENHPP Software Reliability Growth Model based on Superposition Coverage Function (중첩커버리지 함수를 고려한 ENHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2007
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. Accurate predictions of software release times, and estimation of the reliability and availability of a software product require quantification of a critical element of the software testing process : test coverage. This model called Enhanced non-homogeneous poission process (ENHPP). In this paper, exponential coverage and S-shaped model was reviewed, proposes the superposition model, which maked out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on SSE statistics for the sake of efficient model, was employed.

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Sample Size Determination of Univariate and Bivariate Ordinal Outcomes by Nonparametric Wilcoxon Tests (단변량 및 이변량 순위변수의 비모수적 윌콕슨 검정법에 의한 표본수 결정방법)

  • Park, Hae-Gang;Song, Hae-Hiang
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1249-1263
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    • 2009
  • The power function in sample size determination has to be characterized by an appropriate statistical test for the hypothesis of interest. Nonparametric tests are suitable in the analysis of ordinal data or frequency data with ordered categories which appear frequently in the biomedical research literature. In this paper, we study sample size calculation methods for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test for one- and two-dimensional ordinal outcomes. While the sample size formula for the univariate outcome which is based on the variances of the test statistic under both null and alternative hypothesis perform well, this formula requires additional information on probability estimates that appear in the variance of the test statistic under alternative hypothesis, and the values of these probabilities are generally unknown. We study the advantages and disadvantages of different sample size formulas with simulations. Sample sizes are calculated for the two-dimensional ordinal outcomes of efficacy and safety, for which bivariate Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test is appropriate than the multivariate parametric test.

Estimation of genetic parameter for carcass traits in commercial Hanwoo steer (일반농가 한우의 도체형질에 관한 유전모수 추정)

  • Lee, Yoonseok;Lee, Jea Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.741-747
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    • 2016
  • The aim of study was to estimate genetic parameter of carcass traits in commercial Hanwoo steer using national animal model for selection of superior bull. Analyzed data (n=5,843) on carcass traits was collected from 107,020 Hanwoo steer. The animal model was used to estimate heritability and genetic correlations. The estimated heritability of carcass traits were 0.19, 0.17, 0.20 and 0.23 for carcass weight, eye muscle area, backfat thickness and marbling score, respectively. The estimated heritability for carcass traits in commercial Hanwoo are low than estimated heritability of national progeny test population for selection of superior bull because breeding environment, genetic performance of cow and feeding day was different. Therefore, we suggests that animal model can include practical genetic variable based on national animal model to improve genetic performance in commercial Hanwoo.

An Investigation into the Effect of Marketing Mix Variables on Market Share based on MCI Model and Equity Estimation (MCI 모형과 Equity 추정방식을 이용한 마케팅믹스 변수들이 시장점유율에 미치는 효과에 대한 분석)

  • Lim, Byung Hoon;Kim, Keun Bae
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2004
  • After Nakanishi and Cooper(1982) suggested a way of transforming the complicated nonlinear MCI model into a simple linear form, the application of MCI model has been increased. However, the use of MCI model in Korea is quite limited. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the practical application of MCI(Multiplicative Competitive Interaction) model to a consumer goods industry. MCI model is a form of the attraction model explaining the relation between marketing mix variables and market share. In this study, multiple sources of empirical data are incorporated in the model formulation stage. In the estimation process, the equity estimation is applied to solve the possible multi-collinearity problem among marketing mix variables. Results from the fitted model suggest meaningful managerial implications for the management of brand equity and the allocation of resources among marketing mix variables.

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Robust Interpolation Method for Adapting to Sparse Design in Nonparametric Regression (선형보간법에 의한 자료 희소성 해결방안의 문제와 대안)

  • Park, Dong-Ryeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.561-571
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    • 2007
  • Local linear regression estimator is the most widely used nonparametric regression estimator which has a number of advantages over the traditional kernel estimators. It is well known that local linear estimator can produce erratic result in sparse regions in the realization of the design and the interpolation method of Hall and Turlach (1997) is the very efficient way to resolve this problem. However, it has been never pointed out that Hall and Turlach's interpolation method is very sensitive to outliers. In this paper, we propose the robust version of the interpolation method for adapting to sparse design. The finite sample properties of the method is compared with Hall and Turlach's method by the simulation study.

Time-Varying Income Elasticity of CO2 emission Using Non-Linear Cointegration (비선형 공적분모형을 이용한 이산화탄소 배출량의 소득탄력성 추정)

  • Lee, Sungro;Kim, Hyo-Sun
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.473-496
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    • 2014
  • This paper intends to test the non-linear relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and income by employing cointegration model of the time-varying income elasticity. We select France, UK, Italy, Japan, US, China, India, Mexico and Korea and use non-parametric time series analysis on each country in order to estimate its own effect of income on $CO_2$ emission. The main results indicate that the $CO_2$ emission-income elasticities vary over time and the income elasticities of the Annex I countries tend to be higher in absolute terms than those of developing countries. In addition, we find that emission-income elasticities decrease for Annex I countries over time, whereas those for developing countries increase.

Estimation of Parameters for Individual Growth Curves of Cows in Bostaurus Coreanae (한우 암소의 개체별 성장곡선 모수 추정)

  • Lee, C.W.;Choi, J.G.;Jeon, G.J.;Na, K.J.;Lee, C.;Hwang, J.M.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, J.B.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.689-694
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    • 2003
  • Weight records of Hanwoo cows from birth to 36 months of age collected in Daekwanryeong branch, National Livestock Research Institute(NLRI) were fitted to Gompertz, von Bertalanffy and Logistic functions. For the growth curve parameters fitted on individual records using Gompertz model, the mean estimates of mature weight(A), growth ratio(b) and growth rate(k) were 383.42 ${\pm}$ 97.29kg, 2.374 ${\pm}$ 0.340 and 0.0037 ${\pm}$ 0.0012, respectively, and mean estimates of body weight, age and daily gain rate at inflection were 141.05 ${\pm}$ 35.79kg, 255.63 ${\pm}$ 109.09 day and 0.500 ${\pm}$ 0.123kg, respectively. For von BertalanfTy model, the mean estimates of A, b and k were 410.47 ${\pm}$ 117.98kg, 0.575${\pm}$0.057 and 0.003 ${\pm}$ 0.001, and mean estimates of body weight, age and daily gain at inflection were 121.62 ${\pm}$ 34.94kg, 211.02 ${\pm}$ 105.53 and 0.504 ${\pm}$ O.l24kg. For Logistic model, the mean estimates of A, b and k were 347.64 ${\pm}$ 97.29kg, 6.73 ${\pm}$ 0.34 and 0.006 ${\pm}$ 0.0018, and mean estimates of body weight, age and daily gain at inflection were 173.82 ${\pm}$ 37.25kg, 324.47 ${\pm}$ 126.85 and 0.508 ${\pm}$ 0.131kg. Coefficients of variation for the A, b and k parameter estimates were 25.3%, 14.3% and 32.4%, respectively, for Gompertz model, 28.70/0, 9.9% and 33.3% for von Bertalanffy model, and 27.9°/0, 5.0% and 30.0% for Logistic model.

Nonparametric Detection of a Discontinuity Point in the Variance Function with the Second Moment Function

  • Huh, Jib
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.591-601
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    • 2005
  • In this paper we consider detection of a discontinuity point in the variance function. When the mean function is discontinuous at a point, the variance function is usually discontinuous at the point. In this case, we had better estimate the location of the discontinuity point with the mean function rather than the variance function. On the other hand, the variance function only has a discontinuity point. The target function in order to estimate the location can be used the second moment function since the variance function and the second moment function have the same location and jump size of the discontinuity point. We propose a nonparametric detection method of the discontinuity point with the second moment function. We give the asymptotic results of these estimators. Computer simulation demonstrates the improved performance of the method over the existing ones.

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