• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실함

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A Proposal for Korean armed forces preparing toward Future war: Examine the U.S. 'Mosaic Warfare' Concept (미래전을 대비한 한국군 발전방향 제언: 미국의 모자이크전 수행개념 고찰을 통하여)

  • Chang, Jin O;Jung, Jae-young
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.215-240
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    • 2020
  • In 2017, the U.S. DARPA coined 'mosaic warfare' as a new way of warfighting. According to the Timothy Grayson, director of DARPA's Strategic Technologies Office, mosaic warfare is a "system of system" approach to warfghting designed around compatible "tiles" of capabilities, rather than uniquely shaped "puzzle pieces" that must be fitted into a specific slot in a battle plan in order for it to work. Prior to cover mosaic warfare theory and recent development, it deals analyze its background and several premises for better understanding. The U.S. DoD officials might acknowledge the current its forces vulnerability to the China's A2/AD assets. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to complete military superiority even in other nation's territorial domains including sea and air. Given its rapid combat restoration capability and less manpower casualty, the U.S. would be able to ready to endure war of attrition that requires massive resources. The core concept of mosaic warfare is a "decision centric warfare". To embody this idea, it create adaptability for U.S. forces and complexity or uncertainty for the enemy through the rapid composition and recomposition of a more disag g reg ated U.S. military force using human command and machine control. This allows providing more options to friendly forces and collapse adversary's OODA loop eventually. Adaptable kill web, composable force packages, A.I., and context-centric C3 architecture are crucial elements to implement and carry out mosaic warfare. Recently, CSBA showed an compelling assessment of mosaic warfare simulation. In this wargame, there was a significant differences between traditional and mosaic teams. Mosaic team was able to mount more simultaneous actions, creating additional complexity to adversaries and overwhelming their decision-making with less friendly force's human casualty. It increase the speed of the U.S. force's decision-making, enabling commanders to better employ tempo. Consequently, this article finds out and suggests implications for Korea armed forces. First of all, it needs to examine and develop 'mosaic warfare' in terms of our security circumstance. In response to future warfare, reviewing overall force structure and architecture is required which is able to compose force element regardless domain. In regards to insufficient defense resources and budget, "choice" and "concentration" are also essential. It needs to have eyes on the neighboring countries' development of future war concept carefully.

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International Research Trends Related to Inquiry in Science Education: Perception and Perspective on Inquiry, Support and Strategy for Inquiry, and Teacher Professional Development for Inquiry (과학교육에서 탐구 관련 국외 연구 동향 -탐구의 인식과 관점, 전략과 지원, 교사 전문성의 관점에서-)

  • Yu, Eun-Jeong;Byun, Taejin;Baek, Jongho;Shim, Hyeon-Pyo;Ryu, Kumbok;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2021
  • Inquiry occupies an important place in science education, and research related to inquiry is widely conducted. However, due to the inclusiveness of the concept of "exploration," each researcher perceives its meaning differently, and approaches may vary. In addition, criticisms have been raised that the results of classes using inquiry in science education do not guarantee meaningful changes to students. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the trend of SSCI-level research papers dealing with inquiry in science education over the past three years to confirm the current status and effectiveness of the inquiry. Researches used in the analysis are International Journal of Science Education, Journal of Research in Science Teaching, Research in Science Education, and Science Education, and limited to those that directly suggest "inquiry (enquiry)" as a keyword. Based on extracted 75 papers, the classification process was conducted, and an analysis frame was derived inductively by reflecting the subject and characteristics. Specific cases for each category were presented by dividing into three aspects: perception and perspective on inquiry, support and strategy for inquiry, and teacher professional development for inquiry. The results of examining the implications for scientific inquiry are as follows: First, rather than defining inquiry as an implicit proposition or presenting it as a step-by-step procedure, it was induced to grasp the meaning of inquiry more comprehensively and holistically. Second, as to whether the inquiry-based instruction is effective in all aspects of the cognitive, functional, and affective domains of science, the limitations are clearly presented, and the context-dependent and subject-specific properties and limitations of inquiry are emphasized. Third, uncertainty in science inquiry-based instruction can help learners to begin their inquiry and develop interest, but in the process of recognizing data and restructuring knowledge, explicit and specific guidance and scaffolding should be provided at an appropriate timing.

A Prediction of N-value Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 N치 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang Myung;Park, Hyoung June;Goo, Tae Hun;Kim, Hyung Chan
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.457-468
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    • 2020
  • Problems arising during pile design works for plant construction, civil and architecture work are mostly come from uncertainty of geotechnical characteristics. In particular, obtaining the N-value measured through the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is the most important data. However, it is difficult to obtain N-value by drilling investigation throughout the all target area. There are many constraints such as licensing, time, cost, equipment access and residential complaints etc. it is impossible to obtain geotechnical characteristics through drilling investigation within a short bidding period in overseas. The geotechnical characteristics at non-drilling investigation points are usually determined by the engineer's empirical judgment, which can leads to errors in pile design and quantity calculation causing construction delay and cost increase. It would be possible to overcome this problem if N-value could be predicted at the non-drilling investigation points using limited minimum drilling investigation data. This study was conducted to predicted the N-value using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which one of the Artificial intelligence (AI) method. An Artificial Neural Network treats a limited amount of geotechnical characteristics as a biological logic process, providing more reliable results for input variables. The purpose of this study is to predict N-value at the non-drilling investigation points through patterns which is studied by multi-layer perceptron and error back-propagation algorithms using the minimum geotechnical data. It has been reviewed the reliability of the values that predicted by AI method compared to the measured values, and we were able to confirm the high reliability as a result. To solving geotechnical uncertainty, we will perform sensitivity analysis of input variables to increase learning effect in next steps and it may need some technical update of program. We hope that our study will be helpful to design works in the future.

Comparison of Models for Stock Price Prediction Based on Keyword Search Volume According to the Social Acceptance of Artificial Intelligence (인공지능의 사회적 수용도에 따른 키워드 검색량 기반 주가예측모형 비교연구)

  • Cho, Yujung;Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2021
  • Recently, investors' interest and the influence of stock-related information dissemination are being considered as significant factors that explain stock returns and volume. Besides, companies that develop, distribute, or utilize innovative new technologies such as artificial intelligence have a problem that it is difficult to accurately predict a company's future stock returns and volatility due to macro-environment and market uncertainty. Market uncertainty is recognized as an obstacle to the activation and spread of artificial intelligence technology, so research is needed to mitigate this. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a machine learning model that predicts the volatility of a company's stock price by using the internet search volume of artificial intelligence-related technology keywords as a measure of the interest of investors. To this end, for predicting the stock market, we using the VAR(Vector Auto Regression) and deep neural network LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory). And the stock price prediction performance using keyword search volume is compared according to the technology's social acceptance stage. In addition, we also conduct the analysis of sub-technology of artificial intelligence technology to examine the change in the search volume of detailed technology keywords according to the technology acceptance stage and the effect of interest in specific technology on the stock market forecast. To this end, in this study, the words artificial intelligence, deep learning, machine learning were selected as keywords. Next, we investigated how many keywords each week appeared in online documents for five years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019. The stock price and transaction volume data of KOSDAQ listed companies were also collected and used for analysis. As a result, we found that the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increased as the social acceptance of artificial intelligence technology increased. In particular, starting from AlphaGo Shock, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence itself and detailed technologies such as machine learning and deep learning appeared to increase. Also, the keyword search volume for artificial intelligence technology increases as the social acceptance stage progresses. It showed high accuracy, and it was confirmed that the acceptance stages showing the best prediction performance were different for each keyword. As a result of stock price prediction based on keyword search volume for each social acceptance stage of artificial intelligence technologies classified in this study, the awareness stage's prediction accuracy was found to be the highest. The prediction accuracy was different according to the keywords used in the stock price prediction model for each social acceptance stage. Therefore, when constructing a stock price prediction model using technology keywords, it is necessary to consider social acceptance of the technology and sub-technology classification. The results of this study provide the following implications. First, to predict the return on investment for companies based on innovative technology, it is most important to capture the recognition stage in which public interest rapidly increases in social acceptance of the technology. Second, the change in keyword search volume and the accuracy of the prediction model varies according to the social acceptance of technology should be considered in developing a Decision Support System for investment such as the big data-based Robo-advisor recently introduced by the financial sector.

Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

Simplified Method for Estimation of Mean Residual Life of Rubble-mound Breakwaters (경사제의 평균 잔류수명 추정을 위한 간편법)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2022
  • A simplified model using the lifetime distribution has been presented to estimate the Mean Residual Life (MRL) of rubble-mound breakwaters, which is not like a stochastic process model based on time-dependent history data to the cumulative damage progress of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters involved in the lifetime distribution can be easily estimated by using the upper and lower limits of lifetime and their likelihood that made a judgement by several experts taking account of the initial design lifetime, the past sequences of loads, and others. The simplified model presented in this paper has been applied to the rubble-mound breakwater with TTP armor layer. Wiener Process (WP)-based stochastic model also has been applied together with Monte-Carlo Simulation (MCS) technique to the breakwater of the same condition having time-dependent cumulative damage to TTP armor layer. From the comparison of lifetime distribution obtained from each models including Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), it has found that the lifetime distributions of rubble-mound breakwater can be very satisfactorily fitted by log-normal distribution for all types of cumulative damage progresses, such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic deterioration which are feasible in the real situations. Finally, the MRL of rubble-mound breakwaters estimated by the simplified model presented in this paper have been compared with those by WP stochastic process. It can be shown that results of the presented simplified model have been identical with those of WP stochastic process until any ages in the range of MTT F regardless of the deterioration types. However, a little of differences have been seen at the ages in the neighborhood of MTTF, specially, for the linear and logarithmic deterioration of cumulative damages. For the accurate estimation of MRL of harbor structures, it may be desirable that the stochastic processes should be used to consider properly time-dependent uncertainties of damage deterioration. Nevertheless, the simplified model presented in this paper can be useful in the building of the MRL-based preventive maintenance planning for several kinds of harbor structures, because of which is not needed time-dependent history data about the damage deterioration of structures as mentioned above.

The Study on the Balance of Ambidextrous Strategy of Exploration and Exploitation for Startup Performance (조직의 탐색과 활용에 대한 양손잡이 전략의 균형이 스타트업 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Sung Chul;Lee, Woo Jin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 2021
  • The organizational ambidexterity is an organizational strategy designed to pursue exploration activities to seize new opportunities and exploitation activities to efficiently use resources. Most of these ambidextrous structures have been studied for large corporations with slack resources, and there are still not many studies on the necessity of an ambidextrous structure for startups with relatively low-level resources. However, recently, the startup ecosystem is being advanced globally, and the amount of VC investment is rapidly increasing. This is a time when a lot of venture fund is invested in startups and a startup-friendly environment for rapid growth is created. This is the time to discuss the necessity and applicability of an ambidextrous organizational structure for startups. Therefore, this study conducted a hypothesis test whether the importance and necessity of balance that startups solving market problems with new ideas and utilizing accumulated resources have. To conduct this study, we analyzed 140 startups data gathered from the survey and the moderation effect was also analyzed. As a result of the study, it was verified that the balance of startup exploration and exploitation had a significant effect on startup performance, and the moderating effect of environmental dynamics was found to have a significant effect on the relationship with non-financial performance. Therefore, for startups with insufficient resources, it was concluded that the surplus resources generated in the process of a firm's growth should be effectively utilized and the balance between exploration and exploitation should be balanced from the initial stage of searching for a new business. In other words, it was confirmed that it is important for continuous growth and survival to seek the structure of an ambidextrous organization in order to internalize a mechanism that enables startups to pursue both effectiveness and efficiency in the long term. This study suggests a strategic direction for the growth of startups from the perspective of organizational structure. We expect that this meaningful results on the relationship between the ambidextrous capabilities of startups and performance contribute to the growth of startups in the rapidly growing startup venture environment.

Application of deep learning method for decision making support of dam release operation (댐 방류 의사결정지원을 위한 딥러닝 기법의 적용성 평가)

  • Jung, Sungho;Le, Xuan Hien;Kim, Yeonsu;Choi, Hyungu;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1095-1105
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    • 2021
  • The advancement of dam operation is further required due to the upcoming rainy season, typhoons, or torrential rains. Besides, physical models based on specific rules may sometimes have limitations in controlling the release discharge of dam due to inherent uncertainty and complex factors. This study aims to forecast the water level of the nearest station to the dam multi-timestep-ahead and evaluate the availability when it makes a decision for a release discharge of dam based on LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) of deep learning. The LSTM model was trained and tested on eight data sets with a 1-hour temporal resolution, including primary data used in the dam operation and downstream water level station data about 13 years (2009~2021). The trained model forecasted the water level time series divided by the six lead times: 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18-hours, and compared and analyzed with the observed data. As a result, the prediction results of the 1-hour ahead exhibited the best performance for all cases with an average accuracy of MAE of 0.01m, RMSE of 0.015 m, and NSE of 0.99, respectively. In addition, as the lead time increases, the predictive performance of the model tends to decrease slightly. The model may similarly estimate and reliably predicts the temporal pattern of the observed water level. Thus, it is judged that the LSTM model could produce predictive data by extracting the characteristics of complex hydrological non-linear data and can be used to determine the amount of release discharge from the dam when simulating the operation of the dam.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

The Family and Individual in the Transmedia Storytelling of Young Adult Narratives (청소년서사의 트랜스미디어 스토리텔링에 나타나는 가족과 개인)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-262
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    • 2021
  • This thesis focuses on Wandeuki and Elegant Lies - novels written by Kim Ryeo-reong and adapted into the film by Director Lee Han; this thesis analyzes the process of storytelling being transformed as the media is converted. Also, this thesis discusses cultural-political implications of transmedia storytelling where different narrative responses coexist concerning post-IMF family disorganization and "individualization." First of all, this thesis critically reviews existing discourses on the concept of transmedia storytelling and refers to 'transfictionality' the narratological concept of Marie-Laure Ryan in order to look into media conversion storytelling that starts from original novels. The novels Wandeuki and Elegant Lies show two aspects of "individualization" that adopts existential conditions of family disorganization. Wandeuki deviates from patriarchal family romance through self-discovery and exhibits loose family bond, which is something similar to companionship of close individuals. Elegant Lies shows individualization of pain by portraying a teenager who found herself completely isolated, while showing that it is impossible for the people left behind to mourn. On the other hand, director Lee Han's films and show stories in which family members, who are confronting family dissolution, rediscover and restore their families against family dissolution. The film promotes the expansion of family community through multicultural identity, and the film completes condolence of the people left behind by having the remaining families survive as survivors of suicide. The storyworld of the novels puts emphasis on 'self-discovery' of individual adolescents, while the storyworld of the movies puts emphasis on 'rediscovery of family'. Through transformation of storytelling - especially the redesigning of narrative structures called "modification" - transmedia storytelling shows that the relationship between media-converted texts is far from "faithful representation," but rather, shows conflicting themes and perspectives. With a reference point of 'the emergence of character' transmedia storytelling, which is predicated on the original work but aims to free itself from the original work by transforming storytelling through media conversion, opens up polyphonic storyworld by creating heterogeneous voices. In the post IMF-era, where uncertainty mounts over family dissolution and individualization, polyphonic storyworld created by transmedia storytelling provides an opportunity to experience disparate desires over individual freedom/risk and complacency toward community. We can call this the cultural-political implication of transmedia storytelling based on transferring, transcednding, and transforming.