• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한

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Assessing hydrologic impact of climate change in Jeju Island using multiple GCMs and watershed modeling (다중 GCM과 유역모델링을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 수문학적 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Cho, Jaepil;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2018
  • The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.

Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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The Effects of LBS Information Filtering on Users' Perceived Uncertainty and Information Search Behavior (위치기반 서비스를 통한 정보 필터링이 사용자의 불확실성과 정보탐색 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Zhai, Xiaolin;Im, Il
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.493-513
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    • 2014
  • With the development of related technologies, Location-Based Services (LBS) are growing fast and being used in many ways. Past LBS studies have focused on adoption of LBS because of the fact that LBS users have privacy concerns regarding revealing their location information. Meanwhile, the number of LBS users and revenues from LBS are growing rapidly because users can get some benefits by revealing their location information. Little research has been done on how LBS affects consumers' information search behavior in product purchase. The purpose of this paper is examining the effect of LBS information filtering on buyers' uncertainty and their information search behavior. When consumers purchase a product, they try to reduce uncertainty by searching information. Generally, there are two types of uncertainties - knowledge uncertainty and choice uncertainty. Knowledge uncertainty refers to the lack of information on what kinds of alternatives are available in the market and/or their important attributes. Therefore, consumers having knowledge uncertainty will have difficulties in identifying what alternatives exist in the market to fulfil their needs. Choice uncertainty refers to the lack of information about consumers' own preferences and which alternative will fit in their needs. Therefore, consumers with choice uncertainty have difficulties selecting best product among available alternatives.. According to economics of information theory, consumers narrow the scope of information search when knowledge uncertainty is high. It is because consumers' information search cost is high when their knowledge uncertainty is high. If people do not know available alternatives and their attributes, it takes time and cognitive efforts for them to acquire information about available alternatives. Therefore, they will reduce search breadth. For people with high knowledge uncertainty, the information about products and their attributes is new and of high value for them. Therefore, they will conduct searches more in-depth because they have incentive to acquire more information. When people have high choice uncertainty, people tend to search information about more alternatives. It is because increased search breadth will improve their chances to find better alternative for them. On the other hand, since human's cognitive capacity is limited, the increased search breadth (more alternatives) will reduce the depth of information search for each alternative. Consumers with high choice uncertainty will spend less time and effort for each alternative because considering more alternatives will increase their utility. LBS provides users with the capability to screen alternatives based on the distance from them, which reduces information search costs. Therefore, it is expected that LBS will help users consider more alternatives even when they have high knowledge uncertainty. LBS provides distance information, which helps users choose alternatives appropriate for them. Therefore, users will perceive lower choice uncertainty when they use LBS. In order to test the hypotheses, we selected 80 students and assigned them to one of the two experiment groups. One group was asked to use LBS to search surrounding restaurants and the other group was asked to not use LBS to search nearby restaurants. The experimental tasks and measures items were validated in a pilot experiment. The final measurement items are shown in Appendix A. Each subject was asked to read one of the two scenarios - with or without LBS - and use a smartphone application to pick a restaurant. All behaviors on smartphone were recorded using a recording application. Search breadth was measured by the number of restaurants clicked by each subject. Search depths was measured by two metrics - the average number of sub-level pages each subject visited and the average time spent on each restaurant. The hypotheses were tested using SPSS and PLS. The results show that knowledge uncertainty reduces search breadth (H1a). However, there was no significant correlation between knowledge uncertainty and search depth (H1b). Choice uncertainty significantly reduces search depth (H2b), but no significant relationship was found between choice uncertainty and search breadth (H2a). LBS information filtering significantly reduces the buyers' choice uncertainty (H4) and reduces the negative relationship between knowledge uncertainty and search breadth (H3). This research provides some important implications for service providers. Service providers should use different strategies based on their service properties. For those service providers who are not well-known to consumers (high knowledge uncertainty) should encourage their customers to use LBS. This is because LBS would increase buyers' consideration sets when the knowledge uncertainty is high. Therefore, less known services have chances to be included in consumers' consideration sets with LBS. On the other hand, LBS information filtering decrease choice uncertainty and the near service providers are more likely to be selected than without LBS. Hence, service providers should analyze geographically approximate competitors' strength and try to reduce the gap so that they can have chances to be included in the consideration set.

A Comparative Study on Quantifying Uncertainty of Vitamin A Determination in Infant Formula by HPLC (HPLC에 의한 조제분유 중 비타민 A 함량 분석의 측정불확도 비교산정)

  • Lee, Hong-Min;Kwak, Byung-Man;Ahn, Jang-Hyuk;Jeon, Tae-Hong
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.152-159
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to determine the accurate quantification of vitamin A in infant formula by comparing two different standard stock solutions as well as various sample weights using high performance liquid chromatography. The sources of uncertainty in measurement, such as sample weight, final smaple vloume, and the instrumental results, were identified and used as parameters to determine the combined standard uncertainty based on GUM(guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement) and the Draft EURACHEM/CITAC Guide. The uncertainty components in measuring were identified as standard weight, purity, molecular weight, dilution of the standard solution, calibration curve, recovery, reproducibility, sample weight, and final sample volume. Each uncertainty component was evaluated for type A and type B and included to calculate the combined uncertainty. The analytical results and combined standard uncertainties of vitamin A according to the two different methods of stock solution preparation were 627 ${\pm}$ 33 ${\mu}$g R.E./100 g for 1,000 mg/L of stock solution, and 627 ${\pm}$ 49 ${\mu}$g R.E./100 g for 100 mg/L of stock solution. The analytical results and combined standard uncertainties of vitamin A according to the various sample weighs were 622 ${\pm}$ 48 ${\mu}$g R.E./100 g, 627 ${\pm}$ 33 ${\mu}$g R.E./100 g, and 491 ${\pm}$ 23 ${\mu}$g R.E./100 g for 1 g, 2 g, and 5 g of sampling, respectively. These data indicate that the preparation method of standard stock solution and the smaple amount were main sources of uncertainty in the analysis results for vitamin A. Preparing 1,000 mg/L of stock solution for standard material sampling rather than 100 mg, and sampling not more than 2 g of infant formula, would be effective for reducing differences in the results as well as uncertainty.

Dietary risk assessment for suspected endocrine disrupting pesticides in agricultural products in Busan, Korea (부산지역 유통 농산물의 내분비계 장애추정농약 위해평가)

  • Kwon, Hyeon-Jeong;Ok, Yeon-Ju;Kim, Chan-Hee;Park, Mi-Jung;Hwang, Hye-Sun;Youn, Jong-Bae;Cha, Kyung-Suk;Jo, Hyun-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2018
  • Studies on suspected endocrine disrupting pesticide (EDP) residues in agricultural products were carried out in 2016 in Busan, Korea. Twelve different EDPs, ranging in concentration between 0.003-2.049 mg/kg, were detected in 19.5% of 462 samples. About 0.2% of agricultural product samples exceeded the maximum residue limits (MRLs). Risk indices of all of the EDPs were less than 10% of the acceptable daily intake (ADI). The outcomes indicated that the risk groups at highest risk of exposure to diazinon (found in Korean cabbages) and carbendazim (found in apples) were females aged 40 to 49 and young males less than 10 years old, respectively. Based on the stochastic assessment at $95^{th}$ percentile (P95), risk index in these risk groups accounted for 8.38 and 2.98% of ADIs. The results showed that the occurrence of EDP residues in agricultural products could not be considered a public health problem.

The Past and Future of Public Engagement with Science and Technology (참여적 과학기술 거버넌스의 전개와 전망)

  • Kim, Hyomin;Cho, Seung Hee;Song, Sungsoo
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.99-147
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    • 2016
  • This paper critically reviews the previous discussion over public engagement with science and technology by Science and Technology Studies literatures with a focus on justification and acceptance. Recent studies pointed out that the "participatory turn" after the late 1990s was followed by confusion and disagreement over the meaning and agency of public engagement. Their discussion over the reproduction of the ever-present boundary between science and society along with so-called late modernity and post-normal science and sometimes through the very processes of public engagement draws fresh attention to the old problem: how can lay participation in decision-making be justified, even if we agree that privileging the position of experts in governance of science and technology is no longer justified? So far STS have focused on two conditions for participatory turn-1) uncertainties inherent in experts' ways of knowing and 2) practicability of lay knowledge. This paper first explicated why such discussion has not been logically sufficient nor successful in promoting a wide and well-thought-out acceptance of public engagement. Then the paper made a preliminary attempt to explain what new types of expertise can support the construction and sustainment of participatory governance in science and technology by focusing on one case of lay participation. The particular case discussed by the paper revolves around the actions of a civil organization and an activist who led legal and regulatory changes in wind power development in Jeju Special Self-governing Province. The paper analyzed the types of expertise constructed to be effective and legitimate during the constitution of participatory energy governance and the local society's support for it. The arguments of this paper can be summarized as follows. First, an appropriate basis of the normative claim that science and technology governance should make participatory turn cannot be drawn from the essential characteristics of lay publics-as little as of experts. Second, the type of 'expertise' which can justify participatory governance can only be constructed a posteriori as a result of the practices to re-construct the boundaries between factual statements and value judgment. Third, an intermediary expertise, which this paper defines as a type of expertise in forming human-nonhuman associations and their new pathways for circulations, made significant contribution in laying out the legal and regulatory foundation for revenue sharing in Jeju wind power development. Fourth, experts' conventional ways of knowing need to be supplemented, not supplanted, by lay expertise. Ultimately, the paper calls for the necessity to extend STS discussion over governance toward following the actors. What needs more thorough analysis is such actors' narratives and practices to re-construct the boundaries between the past and present, facts and values, science and society. STS needs a renewed focus on the actual sites of conflicts and decision-making in discussing participatory governance.

Multinational Enforcement of the Capital Markets Act - Focusing on the Anti-Fraud Regulation by the Public Regulators - (다국적 차원의 자본시장법규 집행 - 공적기관에 의한 불공정거래 규제를 중심으로 -)

  • Chang, Kun-Young
    • Journal of Legislation Research
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    • no.53
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    • pp.419-454
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    • 2017
  • Faced with the internationalization of capital markets, Korea needs to protect its investors and markets by applying the relevant laws extraterritorially. The Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act ("Capital Markets Act") explicitly introduced a new provision recognizing the extraterritoriality of the Act. While Article 2 of the Capital Markets Act comprehensively provides for prescriptive extraterritorial jurisdiction, the enactment of extraterritoriality alone does not guarantee that the Act will apply to cross-border transactions effectively. The effective extraterritorial application of an act is inseparable from the adjudicative and enforcement jurisdiction of the act. Specifically, active investigations and detections by the public regulators might be the first step for enforcing the Capital Markets Act. Unlike domestic regulations, however, multinational enforcement actions outside a regulator's home country becomes more problematic because of various obstacles. This Article examines difficulties which domestic regulators may confront in enforcing the Capital Markets Act extraterritorially and makes several recommendations for more effective multinational enforcement as follows. First, the Korean regulators should continue to foster cooperation through the IOSCO and provide international markets with the information and tools necessary for successful regulation of cross-border transactions. Second, the principle of dual criminality should be applied in a modified form for the effective mutual legal assistance in criminal matters. Third, there should be a legal device for the domestic regulator to freeze foreign wrongdoer's assets located outside Korea to repatriate those assets for distribution to defrauded investors in Korea.

Modified Traditional Calibration Method of CRNP for Improving Soil Moisture Estimation (산악지형에서의 CRNP를 이용한 토양 수분 측정 개선을 위한 새로운 중성자 강도 교정 방법 검증 및 평가)

  • Cho, Seongkeun;Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Jeong, Jaehwan;Oh, Seungcheol;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.5_1
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    • pp.665-679
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    • 2019
  • Mesoscale soil moisture measurement from the promising Cosmic-Ray Neutron Probe (CRNP) is expected to bridge the gap between large scale microwave remote sensing and point-based in-situ soil moisture observations. Traditional calibration based on $N_0$ method is used to convert neutron intensity measured at the CRNP to field scale soil moisture. However, the static calibration parameter $N_0$ used in traditional technique is insufficient to quantify long term soil moisture variation and easily influenced by different time-variant factors, contributing to the high uncertainties in CRNP soil moisture product. Consequently, in this study, we proposed a modified traditional calibration method, so-called Dynamic-$N_0$ method, which take into account the temporal variation of $N_0$ to improve the CRNP based soil moisture estimation. In particular, a nonlinear regression method has been developed to directly estimate the time series of $N_0$ data from the corrected neutron intensity. The $N_0$ time series were then reapplied to generate the soil moisture. We evaluated the performance of Dynamic-$N_0$ method for soil moisture estimation compared with the traditional one by using a weighted in-situ soil moisture product. The results indicated that Dynamic-$N_0$ method outperformed the traditional calibration technique, where correlation coefficient increased from 0.70 to 0.72 and RMSE and bias reduced from 0.036 to 0.026 and -0.006 to $-0.001m^3m^{-3}$. Superior performance of the Dynamic-$N_0$ calibration method revealed that the temporal variability of $N_0$ was caused by hydrogen pools surrounding the CRNP. Although several uncertainty sources contributed to the variation of $N_0$ were not fully identified, this proposed calibration method gave a new insight to improve field scale soil moisture estimation from the CRNP.

A Study on the Influence of the Founder's Self-Efficacy on the Sales of the Founding Company (창업자의 자기효능감이 창업기업의 매출에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Joonsung;Song, Inam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.61-78
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    • 2019
  • This study is about the effect of the founder's self-efficacy on the sales of the founding company by focusing on the factors that are currently emphasized in the founding education. In particular, this paper starts from the consciousness of the problem that the education that is being implemented to achieve the purpose of successful start-up among various government-based start-up support projects is failing to produce many start-up failures. Entrepreneurs cannot be assessed by objective financial data, but there is a high degree of uncertainty that should be determined based on their personal and learning abilities. In addition, many previous studies, which are likely to be successful when there is a high self-efficacy in a specific field due to the influence of factors such as personal experience or learning, will answer the direction of support for start-up companies. This study focuses on the impact of the founder's self-efficacy on the sales of the founding firms, especially the sales that are the key to the survival of the founding firms. This study has six major studies. First, to analyze whether the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs with respect to entrepreneurship affects the sales of entrepreneurs. Second, to analyze whether the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs with respect to market orientation affects the sales of entrepreneurs. Analysis of whether the founder's self-efficacy affects the sales of the founding firms. Fourth, analysis of whether the founder's self-efficiency affects the sales of the founding firms' understanding of management environment changes. An analysis of whether efficacy affects the sales of a start-up company, and sixth, an analysis of whether the founder's self-efficacy of business model building ability affects the sales of a start-up company. As a result of the empirical analysis, this study found that the self-efficacy of entrepreneurs on product differentiation capability and business model building capacity had a positive influence on the sales of entrepreneurs. The self-efficacy had a positive effect on self-efficacy, and the customer orientation had a positive effect on self-efficacy on business model building capacity. Also, it was confirmed that a path exists between the components of self-efficacy and that self-efficacy through the path has a positive effect on the sales of the start-up company. Therefore, the results of this study suggest the implications of establishing such a path and strengthening self-efficacy to create the survival and start-up performance of a start-up company if the goal of the start-up company is to survive when implementing various support projects for the start-up company.

New Perspectives on Sunday School of Korean Church for Next Generation (다음 세대와 한국교회 주일학교의 새 전망)

  • Kim, Jeong Joon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.67
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    • pp.11-44
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    • 2021
  • In the early 21st century, the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has arisen during the development of the technological science of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, has been a great challenge in all fields including politics, economy, industry, education and religion in Korean society. To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Korean government announced 'social distancing guidelines,' focused on the 'prohibition of three conditions'(crowd, closeness, airtight) for safety reasons. These quarantine guidelines made it more difficult for Korean churches and Sunday schools to operate. In general, looking at the statistical data of the major denominations of the Korean Church in the second half of the 20th century, shows that the Church has entered a period of stagnant or declining growth. Data also show that the number of students attending Sunday School is decreasing. The researcher identified four causes of the crisis faced by the Korean church and Korean Sunday school entering the 21st century. These trends are influenced by the tendencies of postmodernism, the deconstruction of modern universalism, the certainty and objectivity of knowledge, and the grand narrative and worldview of diffusion. Moreover, it is a phenomenon in which the young population decreases in contrast to the increasing elderly population in the age of population cliff in Korean society. Sunday Schools are also facing a crisis, as the youth population, who will become the future heroes of the Korean church, is declining. Finally, constraints of Church and Sunday school education activities are due to COVID-19 Pandemic. As analysis shows the loss of the Church's educational vision and a decrease in the passion for education. Accordingly, the researcher suggests four new strategies for the next generation of Korean Sunday schools, whose ranges from 200 members or less; this range covers the majority of Sunday School program run by churches in Korea. First, in the age of postmodernism, a time of uncertainty and relativism, Christian Societies requires teachers who are certain of absolute Christian truth and faith. Second, in an era of declining population cliffs for younger generations, a shift to a home-friendly Sunday school paradigm is needed. Third, during the COVID-19 pandemic, educational activities must appropriately utilize face-to-face and non-face-to-face communication. Finally, even in difficult times, Korean Sunday school should nevertheless remember the Lord's great commandment(Matthew 28:18-20) and restore the vision and passion of education to announce and teach the gospel. The researcher hopes that this study will provide small, positive steps in rebuilding Korean Sunday school educational activities for future generations in difficult times.