• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한

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Evaluation of improvement effect on the spatial-temporal correction of several reference evapotranspiration methods (기준증발산량 산정방법들의 시공간적 보정에 대한 개선효과 평가)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.701-715
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    • 2020
  • This study compared several reference evapotranspiration estimated using eight methods such as FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO PM), Hamon, Hansen, Hargreaves-Samani, Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Priestley-Taylor, and Thornthwaite. In addition, by analyzing the monthly deviations of the results by the FAO PM and the remaining seven methods, monthly optimized correction coefficients were derived and the improvement effect was evaluated. These methods were applied to 73 automated synoptic observation system (ASOS) stations of the Korea Meteorological Administration, where the climatological data are available at least 20 years. As a result of evaluating the reference evapotranspiration by applying the default coefficients of each method, a large fluctuation happened depending on the method, and the Hansen method was relatively similar to FAO PM. However, the Hamon and Jensen-Haise methods showed more large values than other methods in summer, and the deviation from FAO PM method was also large significantly. When comparing based on the region, the comparison with FAO PM method provided that the reference evapotranspiration estimated by other methods was overestimated in most regions except for eastern coastal areas. Based on the deviation from the FAO PM method, the monthly correction coefficients were derived for each station. The monthly deviation average that ranged from -46 mm to +88 mm before correction was improved to -11 mm to +1 mm after correction, and the annual average deviation was also significantly reduced by correction from -393 mm to +354 mm (before correction) to -33 mm to +9 mm (after correction). In particular, Hamon, Hargreaves-Samani, and Thornthwaite methods using only temperature data also produced results that were not significantly different from FAO PM after correction. It can be also useful for forecasting long-term reference evapotranspiration using temperature data in climate change scenarios or predicting evapotranspiration using monthly or seasonal temperature forecasted values.

An Empirical Study on the Long-Run Performance of Cross-Listings by Multinational Corporations (다국적기업 해외상장의 장기적인 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Park, Sang-An
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.27-63
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    • 2004
  • Since the 1980s, many multinational corporations have been issuing stocks on foreign stock exchanges, not only to enhance their investor base and liquidity, but also to diversify risks. The phenomenon has also been intensified by the rapid financial globalization and securitization trends. The main purpose of this study is to look into the long-run performance of MNCs' cross-listings of stocks on foreign stock exchanges. We use the event study and cross-sectional regression methods. We obtained some interesting empirical results about the long-run effect of cross-listings. First before the listing data the effect of cross-listing is to increase the underlying stock Vice in the local market. It may be caused by expectation of lower risk and cost of capital. However, after the listing data the stock price has been declining, even if it is not significant. Second, we examine the difference in the long-run cross-listing effect, which may be caused by the listing direction. When listing is made from a less developed market to a more developed market, the effect is better than that in the reverse direction. Furthermore, the effect is worse, when the listing company's home country is the U.S. Third, there is a negative relation between CARs and underlying stock liquidity in the local market, So it implies that a firm, whose underlying stocks are very liquid in the local market should carefully value cross-listing based upon the cost and benefit analysis. Last, but not the least we find that the long-un cross-listing effect is better, when a listing firm's ROE is higher.

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Effect Assessment and Derivation of Ecological Effect Guideline on CO2-Induced Acidification for Marine Organisms (이산화탄소 증가로 인한 해수 산성화가 해양생물에 미치는 영향평가 및 생태영향기준 도출)

  • Gim, Byeong-Mo;Choi, Tae Seob;Lee, Jung-Suk;Park, Young-Gyu;Kang, Seong-Gil;Jeon, Ei-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2014
  • Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is recognizing one of method responding the climate change with reduction of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. In Korea, due to its geological characteristics, sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage is regarded as more practical approach than on-land storage under the goal of its deployment. However, concerns on potential $CO_2$ leakage and relevant acidification issue in the marine environment can be an important subject in recently increasing sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage sites. In the present study effect data from literatures were collected in order to conduct an effect assessment of elevated $CO_2$ levels in marine environments using a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) various marine organisms such as microbe, crustacean, echinoderm, mollusc and fish. Results from literatures using domestic species were compared to those from foreign literatures to evaluate the reliability of the effect levels of each biological group and end-point. Ecological effect guidelines through estimating level of pH variation (${\delta}pH$) to adversely affect 5 and 50% of tested organisms, HC5 and HC50, were determined using SSD of marine organisms exposed to the $CO_2$-induced acidification. Estimated HC5 as ${\delta}pH$ of 0.137 can be used as only interim quality guideline possibly with adequate assessment factor. In the future, the current interim guideline as HC5 of ${\delta}pH$ in this study will look forward to compensate with supplement of ecotoxicological data reflecting various trophic levels and indigenous species.

Valuation of Mining Investment Projects by the Real Option Approach - A Case Study of Uzbekistan's Copper Mining Industry - (실물옵션평가방법에 의한 광산투자의 가치평가 -우즈베키스탄 구리광산업의 사례연구를 중심으로-)

  • Makhkamov, Mumm Sh.;Kim, Dong-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.1634-1647
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    • 2007
  • "To invest or not to invest?" Most business leaders are frequently faced with this question on new and ongoing projects. The challenge lies in deciding what projects to choose, expand, contract, defer, or abandon. The project valuation tools used in this process are vital to making the right decisions. Traditional tools such as discounted cash flow (DCF)/net present value (NPV) assume a "fixed" path ahead, but real world projects face uncertainties, forcing us to change the path often. Comparing to other traditional valuation methods, the real options approach captures the flexibility inherent to investment decisions. The use of real options has gained wide acceptance among practitioners in a number of several industries during the last few decades. Even though the options are present in all types of business decisions, it is still not considered as a proper method of valuation in some industries. Mining has been comparably slow to adopt new valuation techniques over the years. The reason fur this is not entirely clear. One possible reason is the level and types of risks in mining. Not only are these risks high, but they are also more numerous and involve natural risks compared with other industries. That is why the purpose of this study is to deal with a more practical approach to project valuation, known as real options analysis in mining industry. This paper provides a case study approach to the copper mining industry using a real options analysis. It shows how companies can minimize investment risks, exercise flexibility in decision making and maximize returns.

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Research about feature selection that use heuristic function (휴리스틱 함수를 이용한 feature selection에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Mi;Jung, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Tae-Choong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2003
  • A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

Tendency of 'a Cartoon Image' Appearing in Korean Modern Fine Arts - Ocusing on 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi - (한국 현대 미술에 나타나는 '만화 이미지'의 경향성 -이동기의 <아토마우스>를 중심으로-)

  • Jeon, Young Je
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.36
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    • pp.669-702
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    • 2014
  • Today, in Korean modern fine arts, 'cartoon images' are utilized for their roles of the 'personas' of the artists, and as the 'texts' for the artistic discourses, while they play a role as a bridgehead between the public and art. In this study, we made a study, focusing on 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, in order to examine how the borrowing of the 'cartoon images' was made in the Korean modern fine arts, and what its period context is. 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi is the first cartoon character that appeared in Korean modern fine arts, and it has acquired a symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art. In this study, we tried to find out what period contexts the changes of 'Atomouse' have, focusing on the private exhibitions of Lee Dong-gi, such as 'Smoking' Exhibition (2006), 'Bubble' Exhibition (2008), 'Double Vision' Exhibition (2008), 'The Garden of Uncertainty' Exhibition (2012) and 'Do Not Look Back with Angry Face' Exhibition (2013). Atomouse was born in the era of 'lack of pop' a change was attempted of it in the era of 'excess of pop' and its proceeding ended along with the 'settlement of the neo-pop'. From Atomouse started from the unconsciousness of the artist, we can find the 'identity' of the Republic of Korea, which was being influenced by the 'American and Japanese' culture, as well as the symbolism of a subculture being acknowledged as art, while it emerged as an icon to represent the Korean pop art of the time. Then, as the agony and self-examination of the artist was contained in it, its use was changed into the role as a persona and it was utilized as a tool to connect the and figurative worlds. In the end, the artist put an end to the proceeding of the 'Atomouse' at the boundaries of a persona and an alter ego, removing the creation with his own hands. In the process in which Lee Dong-gi created and changed 'Atomouse', the start-up and growth of the pop art are included in the history of the Korean modern fine arts, apart from a study of an artist. 'Atomouse' was not only painted on the walls of the subway stations in the form of public art, but it tried to closely communicate with the public through the collaboration with diverse media. It made the best use of the 'marketability' which a 'cartoon character' had at first, so that pure art was made a step closer to the public. So 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi not only raised a subculture into the realm of high art, but lowered the door sill to high art. Through the study we could confirm what position 'Atomouse' of Lee Dong-gi, which started absurdly between parody and Hommage, takes in Korean modern art of today.

Processing and Quality Control of Flux Data at Gwangneung Forest (광릉 산림의 플럭스 자료 처리와 품질 관리)

  • Lim, Hee-Jeong;Lee, Young-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.82-93
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    • 2008
  • In order to ensure a standardized data analysis of the eddy covariance measurements, Hong and Kim's quality control program has been updated and used to process eddy covariance data measured at two levels on the main flux tower at Gwangneung site from January to May in 2005. The updated program was allowed to remove outliers automatically for $CO_2$ and latent heat fluxes. The flag system consists of four quality groups(G, D, B and M). During the study period, the missing data were about 25% of the total records. About 60% of the good quality data were obtained after the quality control. The number of record in G group was larger at 40m than at 20m. It is due that the level of 20m was within the roughness sublayer where the presence of the canopy influences directly on the character of the turbulence. About 60% of the bad data were due to low wind speed. Energy balance closure at this site was about 40% during the study period. Large imbalance is attributed partly to the combined effects of the neglected heat storage terms, inaccuracy of ground heat flux and advection due to local wind system near the surface. The analysis of wind direction indicates that the frequent occurrence of positive momentum flux was closely associated with mountain valley wind system at this site. The negative $CO_2$ flux at night was examined in terms of averaging time. The results show that when averaging time is larger than 10min, the magnitude of calculated $CO_2$ fluxes increases rapidly, suggesting that the 30min $CO_2$ flux is influenced severely by the mesoscale motion or nonstationarity. A proper choice of averaging time needs to be considered to get accurate turbulent fluxes during nighttime.

Exploring Ways to Improve the Predictability of Flowering Time and Potential Yield of Soybean in the Crop Model Simulation (작물모형의 생물계절 및 잠재수량 예측력 개선 방법 탐색: I. 유전 모수 정보 향상으로 콩의 개화시기 및 잠재수량 예측력 향상이 가능한가?)

  • Chung, Uran;Shin, Pyeong;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.203-214
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    • 2017
  • There are two references of genetic information in Korean soybean cultivar. This study suggested that the new seven genetic information to supplement the uncertainty on prediction of potential yield of two references in soybean, and assessed the availability of two references and seven genetic information for future research. We carried out evaluate the prediction on flowering time and potential yield of the two references of genetic parameters and the new seven genetic parameters (New1~New7); the new seven genetic parameters were calibrated in Jinju, Suwon, Chuncheon during 2003-2006. As a result, in the individual and regional combination genetic parameters, the statistical indicators of the genetic parameters of the each site or the genetic parameters of the participating stations showed improved results, but did not significant. In Daegu, Miryang, and Jeonju, the predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of New7 was not improved than that of two references. However, the genetic parameters of New7 showed improvement of predictability on potential yield. No predictability on flowering time of genetic parameters of two references as having the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) on flowering time respectively, at 0.00 and 0.01, but the predictability of genetic parameter of New7 was improved as $R^2$ on flowering time of New7 was 0.31 in Miryang. On the other hand, $R^2$ on potential yield of genetic parameters of two references were respectively 0.66 and 0.41, but no predictability on potential yield of genetic parameter of New7 as $R^2$ of New7 showed 0.00 in Jeonju. However, it is expected that the regional combination genetic parameters with the good evaluation can be utilized to predict the flowering timing and potential yields of other regions. Although it is necessary to analyze further whether or not the input data is uncertain.

Policy Suggestions Regarding to Soil Quality Levels in Korea from a Comparison Study of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark's Soil Quality Policies (토양질 기준에 관한 주요 외국 정책의 비교분석을 통한 우리나라의 토양질 기준 개념설정과 적용)

  • Park Yong-Ha;Yang Jae-E;Ok Yong-Sik
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2005
  • Policies regarding to soil quality of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany, and Demark were analyzed to suggest Korean policy for improving soil quality concept and it's implementation. All countries met four criteria: I) Soil quality levels of contaminants are indebt to concept of contaminant risk to recipients (human and ecosystem); ii) Any soil quality value can't be a magic number to determine whether a site is contaminated or not. To determine risk of sites, risk assessment of the sites should be followed; iii) Concentrations of contaminants of sites are not always significantly certain to risk of human and ecosystem of the sites; and iv) Soil quality levels are adopted based on land uses and plans. Considering our rooms to improve policies and analysis of the other country reports on their legislations about soil quality levels, our policy implementation could be approached from these directions: i) Our concept for soil quality levels needs to develop in scientific and rational. ii) Soil quality levels and risk assessment should be implemented as determining tools of site contamination in parallel, and iii) Soil quality levels depending on land uses and plans should be developed in debt with rational and scientific concept of risk. Increasing efficacy of Korea policy regarding the soil quality levels would be in dept to applying concepts of SCL (Soil Contamination Level) and SRL (Soil Regulatory Level) developed, implementing soil quality levels and risk assessment of contaminated sites in conjunction, and classifying three distinctions of land uses based on sensitiveness of recipients (human and ecosystem) to contaminants in soil in this research.