• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실한

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A Study on the Forest Vegetation of Deogyusan National Park (덕유산 국립공원 삼림식생에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chang-Hwan;Oh, Jang-Geun;Lee, Nam-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2013
  • From March 2012 to January 2013, this study was conducted as a part of the project for making a precise electronic ecological zoning map of vegetation on a highly reduced scale of 1 to 5,000 with a view to improving management efficiency of national parks and enlarging the availability of the data produced from the basic research monitoring the resources of national parks. For the research accuracy and rapidity, a vegetation map was specially created for the on-the-site-vegetation research. To make the map more meticulous, we categorized the vegetation database into five groups: broadleaved forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest, rock vegetation and miscellaneous one. After comparing the results of the data built for the vegetation research and the actual research findings, it was made clear that vegetation of both categories was almost the same in case of broad-leaved forest with 72.20% and 78.45% respectively, and also equivalent in other groups like, for example, coniferous forest (16.70%, 13.41%), mixed forest (9.50%, 7.49%) and rock vegetation (0.60%, 0.15%). According to the precise vegetation map produced from the research, the deciduous broad-leaved forest was the most widely prevalent type in the correlated hierarchical classification of vegetation, occupying 65.78% of the overall vegetation. It was followed by mountain valley forest (15.17%), coniferous forest (10.90%), and plantation forest (7.00%) in order. It is particularly noteworthy that Mt. Deogyusan national park has retained a very stable and versatile forest vegetation in the outstanding state since approximately 20% of the mountain turns out to belong to the I grade vegetation conservation classification which contains climax forests, unique vegetation, subalpine vegetation, matured stands which are older than 50 years and etc.

Estimating the Changes in Forest Carbon Dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis Forests in South Korea under the RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 산림 탄소 동태 변화 추정 연구)

  • Lee, Jongyeol;Han, Seung Hyun;Kim, Seongjun;Chang, Hanna;Yi, Myong Jong;Park, Gwan Soo;Kim, Choonsig;Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Raehyun;Son, Yowhan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2015
  • Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and $164.2g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and $193.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.

Measurement of Two-Dimensional Velocity Distribution of Spatio-Temporal Image Velocimeter using Cross-Correlation Analysis (상호상관법을 이용한 시공간 영상유속계의 2차원 유속분포 측정)

  • Yu, Kwonkyu;Kim, Seojun;Kim, Dongsu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.537-546
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    • 2014
  • Surface image velocimetry was introduced as an efficient and sage alternative to conventional river flow measurement methods during floods. The conventional surface image velocimetry uses a pair of images to estimate velocity fields using cross-correlation analysis. This method is appropriate to analyzing images taken with a short time interval. It, however, has some drawbacks; it takes a while to analyze images for the verage velocity of long time intervals and is prone to include errors or uncertainties due to flow characteristics and/or image taking conditions. Methods using spatio-temporal images, called STIV, were developed to overcome the drawbacks of conventional surface image velocimetry. The grayscale-gradient tensor method, one of various STIVs, has shown to be effectively reducing the analysis time and is fairly insusceptible to any measurement noise. It, unfortunately, can only be applied to the main flow direction. This means that it can not measure any two-dimensional flow field, e.g. flow in the vicinity of river structures and flow around river bends. The present study aimed to develop a new method of analyzing spatio-temporal images in two-dimension using cross-correlation analysis. Unlike the conventional STIV, the developed method can be used to measure two-dimensional flow substantially. The method also has very high spatial resolution and reduces the analysis time. A verification test using artificial images with lid-driven cavity flow showed that the maximum error of the method is less than 10 % and the average error is less than 5 %. This means that the developed scheme seems to be fairly accurate, even for two-dimensional flow.

Error Analysis of Image Velocimetry According to the Variation of the Interrogation Area (상관영역 크기 변화에 따른 영상유속계의 오차 분석)

  • Kim, Seojun;Yu, Kwonkyu;Yoon, Byungman
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2013
  • Recently image velocimetries, including particle image velocimetry (PIV) and surface image velocimetry (SIV), are often used to measure flow velocities in laboratories and rivers. The most difficult point in using image velocimetries may be how to determine the sizes of the interrogation areas and the measurement uncertainties. Especially, it is a little hard for unskilled users to use these instruments, since any standardized measuring techniques or measurement uncertainties are not well evaluated. Sometimes the user's skill and understanding on the instruments may make a wide gap between velocity measurement results. The present study aims to evaluate image velocimetry's uncertainties due to the changes in the sizes of interrogation areas and searching areas with the error analyses. For the purpose, we generated 12 series of artificial images with known velocity fields and various numbers and sizes of particles. The analysis results showed that the accuracy of velocity measurements of the image velocimetry was significantly affected by the change of the size of interrogation area. Generally speaking, the error was reduced as the size of interrogation areas became small. For the same sizes of interrogation areas, the larger particle sizes and the larger number of particles resulted smaller errors. Especially, the errors of the image velocimetries were more affected by the number of particles rather than the sizes of them. As the sizes of interrogation areas were increased, the differences between the maximum and the minimum errors seemed to be reduced. For the size of the interrogation area whose average errors were less than 5%, the differences between the maximum and the minimum errors seemed a little large. For the case, in other words, the uncertainty of the velocity measurements of the image velocimetry was large. In the viewpoint of the particle density, the size of the interrogation area was small for large particle density cases. For the cases of large number of particle and small particle density, however, the minimum size of interrogation area became smaller.

Water Balance Projection Using Climate Change Scenarios in the Korean Peninsula (기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 미래 한반도 물수급 전망)

  • Kim, Cho-Rong;Kim, Young-Oh;Seo, Seung Beom;Choi, Su-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.807-819
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    • 2013
  • This study proposes a new methodology for future water balance projection considering climate change by assigning a weight to each scenario instead of inputting future streamflows based on GCMs into a water balance model directly. K-nearest neighbor algorithm was employed to assign weights and streamflows in non-flood period (October to the following June) was selected as the criterion for assigning weights. GCM-driven precipitation was input to TANK model to simulate future streamflow scenarios and Quantile Mapping was applied to correct bias between GCM hindcast and historical data. Based on these bias-corrected streamflows, different weights were assigned to each streamflow scenarios to calculate water shortage for the projection periods; 2020s (2010~2039), 2050s (2040~2069), and 2080s (2070~2099). As a result by applying the proposed methodology to project water shortage over the Korean Peninsula, average water shortage for 2020s is projected to increase to 10~32% comparing to the basis (1967~2003). In addition, according to getting decreased in streamflows in non-flood period gradually by 2080s, average water shortage for 2080s is projected to increase up to 97% (516.5 million $m^3/yr$) as maximum comparing to the basis. While the existing research on climate change gives radical increase in future water shortage, the results projected by the weighting method shows conservative change. This study has significance in the applicability of water balance projection regarding climate change, keeping the existing framework of national water resources planning and this lessens the confusion for decision-makers in water sectors.

Projecting future hydrological and ecological droughts with the climate and land use scenarios over the Korean peninsula (기후 및 토지이용 변화 시나리오 기반 한반도 미래 수문학적 및 생태학적 가뭄 전망)

  • Lee, Jaehyeong;Kim, Yeonjoo;Chae, Yeora
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2020
  • It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

Characteristics of the Graded Wildlife Dose Assessment Code K-BIOTA and Its Application (단계적 야생동식물 선량평가 코드 K-BIOTA의 특성 및 적용)

  • Keum, Dong-Kwon;Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Kim, Byeong-Ho;Choi, Yong-Ho
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.252-260
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    • 2015
  • This paper describes the technical background for the Korean wildlife radiation dose assessment code, K-BIOTA, and the summary of its application. The K-BIOTA applies the graded approaches of 3 levels including the screening assessment (Level 1 & 2), and the detailed assessment based on the site specific data (Level 3). The screening level assessment is a preliminary step to determine whether the detailed assessment is needed, and calculates the dose rate for the grouped organisms, rather than an individual biota. In the Level 1 assessment, the risk quotient (RQ) is calculated by comparing the actual media concentration with the environmental media concentration limit (EMCL) derived from a bench-mark screening reference dose rate. If RQ for the Level 1 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 2 assessment, which calculates RQ using the average value of the concentration ratio (CR) and equilibrium distribution coefficient (Kd) for the grouped organisms, is carried out for the more realistic assessment. Thus, the Level 2 assessment is less conservative than the Level 1 assessment. If RQ for the Level 2 assessment is less than 1, it can be determined that the ecosystem would maintain its integrity, and the assessment is terminated. If the RQ is greater than 1, the Level 3 assessment is performed for the detailed assessment. In the Level 3 assessment, the radiation dose for the representative organism of a site is calculated by using the site specific data of occupancy factor, CR and Kd. In addition, the K-BIOTA allows the uncertainty analysis of the dose rate on CR, Kd and environmental medium concentration among input parameters optionally in the Level 3 assessment. The four probability density functions of normal, lognormal, uniform and exponential distribution can be applied.The applicability of the code was tested through the participation of IAEA EMRAS II (Environmental Modeling for Radiation Safety) for the comparison study of environmental models comparison, and as the result, it was proved that the K-BIOTA would be very useful to assess the radiation risk of the wildlife living in the various contaminated environment.

The Study about Developing More Rational Valuation Model to the Early Stage Companies (초기기업에 대한 정량적 가치평가 모델 구축에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kang, Sang-Wook;Yang, Young-Seok;Yang, Soo-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2017
  • The major goal of this paper falls on developing new rational valuation model, to help companies and investors in the early stage of growth as to preparing and negotiating valuation of investment, by applying new reasonable discount indexes of calculating Discount Cash Flow in valuation of the start-up which has been recognized the critical fatal flaws of DCF with them. There are three specific studies done in this paper. First, this paper found the solid and viable bases of rational discount indexes as to applying DCF in valuing companies in the early growth stage with reviewing the previous studies including Berkus method, Scorecard Method, and Risk factor Summation method classified the most effective tools of valuing pre-revenue generating companies. Second, this paper quoted and analyzed the previous models and studies, so called, 'DCF-Prime' of applying DCF method as to value companies in the early growth stage by taking all risk factors innate to the companies in the early growth stage as the discount rate Beta coefficient. Third, this paper propose more viable and solid valuation models, so called, 'DCF-Plus'of combing all validated valuation factors in Berkus, Scorecard, and Risk Factor Summation methods into applying separate discount bracket after DCF Valuation over the companies in the early growth stage instead of taking them as the factors of discount rate, beta coefficient, like the previous model of DCF-Prime. DCF-Plus mainly developed in this paper will not only provide more rational valuation bases as to investment negotiation between companies and investors in the early growth stage, but also providing more accountable guidelines to companies in the early growth as to prepare investment raising and accelerating their company's value by themselves.

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A Study for Selecting Protected Wildlife Species and Potential Habitats in Seoul Metropolitan City (서울시 보호야생동.식물 종 및 잠재 서식지 선정 연구)

  • Han, Bong-Ho;Lee, Kyong-Jae;Ki, Kyong-Seok;Choi, Byeong-Eon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.601-613
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to provide an protected wildlife species and potential habitats in Seoul through the overall present status of the species which live in Seoul. This study was performed in Seoul, the entire area of which is 605.52 $km^2$. We analyzed a total of 57 studies, including academic papers and research reports, for the natural ecology in Seoul. As for the results from the study, it was found that a total 1,907 species from 5 taxa were inhabiting and growing within the area. Among the total, plants of 1,656 species accounted for 86.7%, 197 species of wild birds made up 10.3%, 29 species of amphibians and reptiles consisted of 1.5%, and 27 species of mammalia totaled 1.4%. A total of 440 species except foreign species and species legally preserved by the Ministry of Environment, common species and uncertain species were selected as primary candidates. By taxon, it shows 212 species of plants, 180 species of wild birds, 24 species of mammalia, and 24 species of amphibians and reptiles. For extensive research subjects and research data limited in certain insect family, analysis by literature for discovered insects was excluded. The selection criteria for the second candidate species was based on extinction crisis, rarity, historicity and locality, academic value, habitat specificity, etc. The second candidate species from the primary species were selected through taxon experts' evaluations. As for the results of the selection of the second candidates, a total 77 species were selected through the experts' evaluations. Each species by taxon was 25 species for plants, 21 species for wild birds, 5 for mammalia, 10 for amphibians and reptiles and 16 species for insects. A site investigation for the second candidates was conducted to select the final candidate species. For the target areas, the habitats of the second candidates given by the literature and 46 potential areas in Seoul, which show good natural resistance, were finally selected. From the result of the site investigation, it was found that 14 species of plants, 19 species of wild birds, 2 species of mammalia, 4 species of amphibians and reptiles, and 16 species of insects were actually inhabiting Seoul; thus, the final 55 protected species were selected.

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.