• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성분석

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A Simulation of Agro-Climate Index over the Korean Peninsula Using Dynamical Downscaling with a Numerical Weather Prediction Model (수치예보모형을 이용한 역학적 규모축소 기법을 통한 농업기후지수 모사)

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae;Hur, Ji-Na;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2010
  • A regional climate model (RCM) can be a powerful tool to enhance spatial resolution of climate and weather information (IPCC, 2001). In this study we conducted dynamical downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a RCM in order to obtain high resolution regional agroclimate indices over the Korean Peninsula. For the purpose of obtaining detailed high resolution agroclimate indices, we first reproduced regional weather for the period of March to June, 2002-2008 with dynamic downscaling method under given lateral boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data. Normally, numerical model results have shown biases against observational results due to the uncertainties in the modelis initial conditions, physical parameterizations and our physical understanding on nature. Hence in this study, by employing a statistical method, the systematic bias in the modelis results was estimated and corrected for better reproduction of climate on high resolution. As a result of the correction, the systematic bias of the model was properly corrected and the overall spatial patterns in the simulation were well reproduced, resulting in more fine-resolution climatic structures. Based on these results, the fine-resolution agro-climate indices were estimated and presented. Compared with the indices derived from observation, the simulated indices reproduced the major and detailed spatial distributions. Our research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate on high resolution and agro-climate indices by using a proper downscaling method with a dynamical weather forecast model and a statistical correction method to minimize the model bias.

Research about feature selection that use heuristic function (휴리스틱 함수를 이용한 feature selection에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Mi;Jung, Kyung-Sook;Chung, Tae-Choong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2003
  • A large number of features are collected for problem solving in real life, but to utilize ail the features collected would be difficult. It is not so easy to collect of correct data about all features. In case it takes advantage of all collected data to learn, complicated learning model is created and good performance result can't get. Also exist interrelationships or hierarchical relations among the features. We can reduce feature's number analyzing relation among the features using heuristic knowledge or statistical method. Heuristic technique refers to learning through repetitive trial and errors and experience. Experts can approach to relevant problem domain through opinion collection process by experience. These properties can be utilized to reduce the number of feature used in learning. Experts generate a new feature (highly abstract) using raw data. This paper describes machine learning model that reduce the number of features used in learning using heuristic function and use abstracted feature by neural network's input value. We have applied this model to the win/lose prediction in pro-baseball games. The result shows the model mixing two techniques not only reduces the complexity of the neural network model but also significantly improves the classification accuracy than when neural network and heuristic model are used separately.

New Perspectives on Sunday School of Korean Church for Next Generation (다음 세대와 한국교회 주일학교의 새 전망)

  • Kim, Jeong Joon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.67
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    • pp.11-44
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    • 2021
  • In the early 21st century, the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has arisen during the development of the technological science of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, has been a great challenge in all fields including politics, economy, industry, education and religion in Korean society. To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Korean government announced 'social distancing guidelines,' focused on the 'prohibition of three conditions'(crowd, closeness, airtight) for safety reasons. These quarantine guidelines made it more difficult for Korean churches and Sunday schools to operate. In general, looking at the statistical data of the major denominations of the Korean Church in the second half of the 20th century, shows that the Church has entered a period of stagnant or declining growth. Data also show that the number of students attending Sunday School is decreasing. The researcher identified four causes of the crisis faced by the Korean church and Korean Sunday school entering the 21st century. These trends are influenced by the tendencies of postmodernism, the deconstruction of modern universalism, the certainty and objectivity of knowledge, and the grand narrative and worldview of diffusion. Moreover, it is a phenomenon in which the young population decreases in contrast to the increasing elderly population in the age of population cliff in Korean society. Sunday Schools are also facing a crisis, as the youth population, who will become the future heroes of the Korean church, is declining. Finally, constraints of Church and Sunday school education activities are due to COVID-19 Pandemic. As analysis shows the loss of the Church's educational vision and a decrease in the passion for education. Accordingly, the researcher suggests four new strategies for the next generation of Korean Sunday schools, whose ranges from 200 members or less; this range covers the majority of Sunday School program run by churches in Korea. First, in the age of postmodernism, a time of uncertainty and relativism, Christian Societies requires teachers who are certain of absolute Christian truth and faith. Second, in an era of declining population cliffs for younger generations, a shift to a home-friendly Sunday school paradigm is needed. Third, during the COVID-19 pandemic, educational activities must appropriately utilize face-to-face and non-face-to-face communication. Finally, even in difficult times, Korean Sunday school should nevertheless remember the Lord's great commandment(Matthew 28:18-20) and restore the vision and passion of education to announce and teach the gospel. The researcher hopes that this study will provide small, positive steps in rebuilding Korean Sunday school educational activities for future generations in difficult times.

Investigation of the Effect of Calculation Method of Offset Correction Factor on the GEMS Sulfur Dioxide Retrieval Algorithm (GEMS 이산화황 산출 현업 알고리즘에서 오프셋 보정 계수 산정 방법에 대한 영향 조사)

  • Park, Jeonghyeon;Yang, Jiwon;Choi, Wonei;Kim, Serin;Lee, Hanlim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.189-198
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    • 2022
  • In this present study, we investigated the effect of the offset correction factor calculation method on the sulfur dioxide (SO2) column density in the SO2 retrieval algorithm of the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020. The GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm is the Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) - Principal Component Analysis (PCA) Hybrid algorithm. In the GEMS Hybrid algorithm, the offset correction process is essential to correct the absorption effect of ozone appearing in the SO2 slant column density (SCD) obtained after spectral fitting using DOAS. Since the SO2 column density may depend on the conditions for calculating the offset correction factor, it is necessary to apply an appropriate offset correction value. In this present study, the offset correction values were calculated for days with many cloud pixels and few cloud pixels, respectively. And a comparison of the SO2 column density retrieved by applying each offset correction factor to the GEMS operational SO2 retrieval algorithm was performed. When the offset correction value was calculated using radiance data of GEMS on a day with many cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density around India and the Korean Peninsula, which are the edges of the GEMS observation area, was 1.27 DU, and 0.58 DU, respectively. And around Hong Kong, where there were many cloud pixels, the SO2 standard deviation was 0.77 DU. On the other hand, when the offset correction value calculated using the GEMS data on the day with few cloud pixels was used, the standard deviation of the SO2 column density slightly decreased around India (0.72 DU), Korean Peninsula (0.38 DU), and Hong Kong (0.44 DU). We found that the SO2 retrieval was relatively stable compared to the SO2 retrieval case using the offset correction value on the day with many cloud pixels. Accordingly, to minimize the uncertainty of the GEMS SO2 retrieval algorithm and to obtain a stable retrieval, it is necessary to calculate the offset correction factor under appropriate conditions.

The Family and Individual in the Transmedia Storytelling of Young Adult Narratives (청소년서사의 트랜스미디어 스토리텔링에 나타나는 가족과 개인)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.215-262
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    • 2021
  • This thesis focuses on Wandeuki and Elegant Lies - novels written by Kim Ryeo-reong and adapted into the film by Director Lee Han; this thesis analyzes the process of storytelling being transformed as the media is converted. Also, this thesis discusses cultural-political implications of transmedia storytelling where different narrative responses coexist concerning post-IMF family disorganization and "individualization." First of all, this thesis critically reviews existing discourses on the concept of transmedia storytelling and refers to 'transfictionality' the narratological concept of Marie-Laure Ryan in order to look into media conversion storytelling that starts from original novels. The novels Wandeuki and Elegant Lies show two aspects of "individualization" that adopts existential conditions of family disorganization. Wandeuki deviates from patriarchal family romance through self-discovery and exhibits loose family bond, which is something similar to companionship of close individuals. Elegant Lies shows individualization of pain by portraying a teenager who found herself completely isolated, while showing that it is impossible for the people left behind to mourn. On the other hand, director Lee Han's films and show stories in which family members, who are confronting family dissolution, rediscover and restore their families against family dissolution. The film promotes the expansion of family community through multicultural identity, and the film completes condolence of the people left behind by having the remaining families survive as survivors of suicide. The storyworld of the novels puts emphasis on 'self-discovery' of individual adolescents, while the storyworld of the movies puts emphasis on 'rediscovery of family'. Through transformation of storytelling - especially the redesigning of narrative structures called "modification" - transmedia storytelling shows that the relationship between media-converted texts is far from "faithful representation," but rather, shows conflicting themes and perspectives. With a reference point of 'the emergence of character' transmedia storytelling, which is predicated on the original work but aims to free itself from the original work by transforming storytelling through media conversion, opens up polyphonic storyworld by creating heterogeneous voices. In the post IMF-era, where uncertainty mounts over family dissolution and individualization, polyphonic storyworld created by transmedia storytelling provides an opportunity to experience disparate desires over individual freedom/risk and complacency toward community. We can call this the cultural-political implication of transmedia storytelling based on transferring, transcednding, and transforming.

Factors Influencing Entrepreneurial Intention of Korean and Chinese College Students and Differences Between Countries: Focusing on Entrepreneurial Self-efficacy, Social Support, and Government Support Policy (한국과 중국 대학생들의 창업의도 영향요인과 국가 간 차이: 창업효능감, 사회적 지지 및 정부지원정책을 중심으로)

  • Park, JaeChun;Nam, JungMin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2022
  • This study investigated the effects of individual characteristics (entrepreneurial self-efficacy) and environmental characteristics (social support, government support policy) on entrepreneurial intention for college students in Korea and China. In particular, the moderating effect of differences between countries (Korea and China) was demonstrated in the relationship between individual and environmental characteristics and entrepreneurial intention. The results of the empirical analysis of 626 Korean and Chinese university students are as follows. First, all of the entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social support, and government support policies perceived by Korean college students had a positive effect on entrepreneurial intention. In particular, Korean college students' entrepreneurial intentions were influenced in the order of social support, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and government support policies. Second, all of the entrepreneurial self-efficacy, social support, and government support policies perceived by Chinese college students had a positive effect on start-up intention. In particular, entrepreneurial intention of Chinese college students was influenced in the order of government support policy, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and social support. Third, the relationship between environmental characteristics (social support, government support policy) and entrepreneurial intention was adjusted by differences between countries. First, the positive relationship between social support and entrepreneurial intention was generally higher for Chinese college students than for Korean college students. In addition, the positive relationship between government support policy and entrepreneurial intention was higher for Chinese college students than for Korean college students as the level of awareness of government support policy increased. Finally, theoretical and practical implications for the intention of Korean and Chinese college students to start a business were presented, and the limitations of the study and future research directions were presented based on this study.

Evaluation of the Positional Uncertainty of a Liver Tumor using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Gated Orthogonal Kilovolt Setup Images (사차원전산화단층촬영과 호흡연동 직각 Kilovolt 준비 영상을 이용한 간 종양의 움직임 분석)

  • Ju, Sang-Gyu;Hong, Chae-Seon;Park, Hee-Chul;Ahn, Jong-Ho;Shin, Eun-Hyuk;Shin, Jung-Suk;Kim, Jin-Sung;Han, Young-Yih;Lim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In order to evaluate the positional uncertainty of internal organs during radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer, we measured differences in inter- and intra-fractional variation of the tumor position and tidal amplitude using 4-dimentional computed radiograph (DCT) images and gated orthogonal setup kilovolt (KV) images taken on every treatment using the on board imaging (OBI) and real time position management (RPM) system. Materials and Methods: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent 3-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer participated in this study. All patients received a 4DCT simulation with an RT16 scanner and an RPM system. Lipiodol, which was updated near the target volume after transarterial chemoembolization or diaphragm was chosen as a surrogate for the evaluation of the position difference of internal organs. Two reference orthogonal (anterior and lateral) digital reconstructed radiograph (DRR) images were generated using CT image sets of 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases. The maximum tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured from 3D conformal treatment planning. After setting the patient up with laser markings on the skin, orthogonal gated setup images at 50% into the respiratory phase were acquired at each treatment session with OBI and registered on reference DRR images by setting each beam center. Online inter-fractional variation was determined with the surrogate. After adjusting the patient setup error, orthogonal setup images at 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases were obtained and tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured. Measured tidal amplitude was compared with data from 4DCT. For evaluation of intra-fractional variation, an orthogonal gated setup image at 50% into the respiratory phase was promptly acquired after treatment and compared with the same image taken just before treatment. In addition, a statistical analysis for the quantitative evaluation was performed. Results: Medians of inter-fractional variation for twenty patients were 0.00 cm (range, -0.50 to 0.90 cm), 0.00 cm (range, -2.40 to 1.60 cm), and 0.00 cm (range, -1.10 to 0.50 cm) in the X (transaxial), Y (superior-inferior), and Z (anterior-posterior) directions, respectively. Significant inter-fractional variations over 0.5 cm were observed in four patients. Min addition, the median tidal amplitude differences between 4DCTs and the gated orthogonal setup images were -0.05 cm (range, -0.83 to 0.60 cm), -0.15 cm (range, -2.58 to 1.18 cm), and -0.02 cm (range, -1.37 to 0.59 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Large differences of over 1 cm were detected in 3 patients in the Y direction, while differences of more than 0.5 but less than 1 cm were observed in 5 patients in Y and Z directions. Median intra-fractional variation was 0.00 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.40 cm), -0.03 cm (range, -1.14 to 0.50 cm), 0.05 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.50 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Significant intra-fractional variation of over 1 cm was observed in 2 patients in Y direction. Conclusion: Gated setup images provided a clear image quality for the detection of organ motion without a motion artifact. Significant intra- and inter-fractional variation and tidal amplitude differences between 4DCT and gated setup images were detected in some patients during the radiation treatment period, and therefore, should be considered when setting up the target margin. Monitoring of positional uncertainty and its adaptive feedback system can enhance the accuracy of treatments.

Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망)

  • Lee, Cheol;Boo, Kyung-On;Hong, Jinkyu;Seong, Hyunmin;Heo, Tae-kyung;Seol, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Johan;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2014
  • Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.