• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성분석

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Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

SSP Climate Change Scenarios with 1km Resolution Over Korean Peninsula for Agricultural Uses (농업분야 활용을 위한 한반도 1km 격자형 SSP 기후변화 시나리오)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Sera Jo;Kyo-Moon Shim;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2024
  • The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.

An Analysis of the Imported Consumer Goods Distribution Sector of Korea: From a Vertical Structure Viewpoint (수입소비재(輸入消費財) 유통구조(流通構造)의 효율화(效率化) 방안(方案))

  • Nam, Il-chong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.3-33
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    • 1991
  • Since the early 1980's, the Korean government has gradually been widening the Korean market to foreign consumer goods. This, combined with the increased purchasing power of the Korean consumers resulting from the continued economic growth of the country, has sparked a spectacular influx of foreign consumer goods into Korea, ranging from BMW's to chopsticks. Import of foreign consumer goods amounted to more than 6 billion dollars in 1989 and is continuing to grow at a rapid rate. The increased import of foreign consumer goods doubtlessly improved the overall welfare of the Korean consumers by providing them with a wider range of options to choose from, by lowering the prices of some of the consumer goods domestically produced, and also by forcing the producers of some Korean goods to face competition with better foreign goods, thus giving them an incentive to raise the quality of their products. However, it is agreed by most economists that this increase in general welfare has been much smaller than what they had expected at the outset. Consumer prices of most imported consumer goods are easily double the import price, and in some cases, more than treble the import prices. Further, there has not been a noticeable drop in the prices of domestically produced consumer goods. Much of the blame has been attributed to the distribution sector of Korea. The objective of this paper is to analyze the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea, focusing on the possible sources of the poor performance of that sector, and to make policy suggestions that could potentially increase the welfare. This paper differs from all the previous research by others on this subject in that it analyzes the imported consumer goods distribution sector of Korea as a vertical structure. The distribution sector of an imported consumer good is a vertical structure since it consists of an international market, an import stage, and domestic wholesale and retail markets, in that order vertically. Our study naturally includes the analysis of the vertical restraints as well as the analysis of the industrial organization of each horizontal stage in the vertical structure. Each horizontal component of the imported consumer goods distribution sector is basically a monopolistically competitive market differentiated by characteristics of goods and by the locations and the services of firms. Further, restrictive dealership and resale price maintenance are found to be widely in use. Our main findings are the follwing; First, most consumer goods are imported monopolistically or oligopolistically through restrictive dealership contracts between foreign producers and domestic importers. Such restrictive dealership gives importers market power in the domestic market and explains many of the large discrepancies betwen the consumer prices and the import prices of many goods. Korean anti - trust law does not cover the issues arising from the market power of an importer resulting from a restrictive dealership contract. Second, some major producers of Korean goods are also importers of foreign goods that are substitutes of their products. The import of substitutes by major domestic producers is anti - competitive because it tends to raise the prices of both domestic goods and foreign goods, and also because it reduces the incentive of the domestic producers to raise the quality of their products. Third, wholesalers and retailers widely use resale price maintenance as a price fixing mechanism, and while this is against the anti- trust law, it seldom gets noticed. Fourth, the high level of rents of real estate for commercial use works as an entry barrier to the distribution sector and results in reduced competition by the firms in that sector. Finally, there are information problems. Consumers have inferior information to firms about the quality of a foreign consumer good that they have not tried before. Such information asymmetry often enables firms to raise prices. In addition, information asymmetry between importers frequently delays the import of cheaper substitutes. In order to alleviate the problems indentified above, we suggest the following policy changes. The government should strengthen the anti - trust law and its enforcement to regulate restrictive import contracts, import of competing goods by major domestic producers, and RPM by wholesalers and retailers that is aimed at price fixing. In addition, the government should loosen its tight real estate policy to encourage investment in the distribution sector. Finally, we suggest that the import price revelation policy that has been in use for some items since 1990 be expanded to most imported consumer goods that are introduced for the first time to give consumer better information and be used only for the period of time needed to inform sufficient number of consumers.

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Statistical Characteristics of East Sea Mesoscale Eddies Detected, Tracked, and Grouped Using Satellite Altimeter Data from 1993 to 2017 (인공위성 고도계 자료(1993-2017년)를 이용하여 탐지‧추적‧분류한 동해 중규모 소용돌이의 통계적 특성)

  • LEE, KYUNGJAE;NAM, SUNGHYUN;KIM, YOUNG-GYU
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.267-281
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    • 2019
  • Energetic mesoscale eddies in the East Sea (ES) associated with strong mesoscale variability impacting circulation and environments were statistically characterized by analyzing satellite altimeter data collected during 1993-2017 and in-situ data obtained from four cruises conducted between 2015 and 2017. A total of 1,008 mesoscale eddies were detected, tracked, and identified and then classified into 27 groups characterized by mean lifetime (L, day), amplitude (H, m), radius (R, km), intensity per unit area (EI, $cm^2/s^2/km^2$), ellipticity (e), eddy kinetic energy (EKE, TJ), available potential energy (APE, TJ), and direction of movement. The center, boundary, and amplitude of mesoscale eddies identified from satellite altimeter data were compared to those from the in-situ observational data for the four cases, yielding uncertainties in the center position of 2-10 km, boundary position of 10-20 km, and amplitude of 0.6-5.9 cm. The mean L, H, R, EI, e, EKE, and APE of the ES mesoscale eddies during the total period are $95{\pm}104$ days, $3.5{\pm}1.5cm$, $39{\pm}6km$, $0.023{\pm}0.017cm^2/s^2/km^2$, $0.72{\pm}0.07$, $23{\pm}21TJ$, and $588{\pm}250TJ$, respectively. The ES mesoscale eddies tend to move following the mean surface current rather than propagating westward. The southern groups (south of the subpolar front) have a longer L, larger H, R, and higher EKE, APE; and stronger EI than those of the northern groups and tend to move a longer distance following surface currents. There are exceptions to the average characteristics, such as the quasi-stationary groups (the Wonsan Warm, Wonsan Cold, Western Japan Basin Warm, and Northern Subpolar Frontal Cold Eddy groups) and short-lived groups with a relatively larger H, higher EKE, and APE and stronger EI (the Yamato Coastal Warm, Central Yamato Warm, and Eastern Japan Basin Coastal Warm eddy groups). Small eddies in the northern ES hardly resolved using the satellite altimetry data only, were not identified here and discussed with potential over-estimations of the mean L, H, R, EI, EKE, and APE. This study suggests that the ES mesoscale eddies 1) include newly identified groups such as the Hokkaido and the Yamato Rise Warm Eddies in addition to relatively well-known groups (e.g., the Ulleung Warm and the Dok Cold Eddies); 2) have a shorter L; smaller H, R, and lower EKE; and stronger EI and higher APE than those of the global ocean, and move following surface currents rather than propagating westward; and 3) show large spatial inhomogeneity among groups.

Error Analysis of Three Types of Satellite-observed Surface Skin Temperatures in the Sea Ice Region of the Northern Hemisphere (북반구 해빙 지역에서 세 종류 위성관측 표면온도에 대한 오차분석)

  • Kang, Hee-Jung;Yoo, Jung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.139-157
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the relative errors of satellite-observed Surface Skin Temperature (SST) data caused by sea ice in the northern hemispheric ocean ($30-90^{\circ}N$) during April 16-24, 2003-2014 by intercomparing MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Ice Surface Temperature (IST) data with two types of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) SST data including one with the AIRS/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU) and the other with 'AIRS only'. The MODIS temperatures, compared to the AIRS/AMSU, were systematically up to ~1.6 K high near the sea ice boundaries but up to ~2 K low in the sea ice regions. The main reason of the difference of skin temperatures is that the MODIS algorithm used infrared channels for the sea ice detection (i.e., surface classification), while microwave channels were additionally utilized in the AIRS/AMSU. The 'AIRS only' algorithm has been developed from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) to prepare for the degradation of AMSU-A by revising part of the AIRS/AMSU algorithm. The SST of 'AIRS only' compared to AIRS/AMSU showed a bias of 0.13 K with RMSE of 0.55 K over the $30-90^{\circ}N$ region. The difference between AIRS/AMSU and 'AIRS only' was larger over the sea ice boundary than in other regions because the 'AIRS only' algorithm utilized the GCM temperature product (NOAA Global Forecast System) over seasonally-varying frozen oceans instead of the AMSU microwave data. Three kinds of the skin temperatures consistently showed significant warming trends ($0.23-0.28Kyr^{-1}$) in the latitude band of $70-80^{\circ}N$. The systematic disagreement among the skin temperatures could affect the discrepancies of their trends in the same direction of either warming or cooling.

Evaluation of Factors Used in AAPM TG-43 Formalism Using Segmented Sources Integration Method and Monte Carlo Simulation: Implementation of microSelectron HDR Ir-192 Source (미소선원 적분법과 몬테칼로 방법을 이용한 AAPM TG-43 선량계산 인자 평가: microSelectron HDR Ir-192 선원에 대한 적용)

  • Ahn, Woo-Sang;Jang, Won-Woo;Park, Sung-Ho;Jung, Sang-Hoon;Cho, Woon-Kap;Kim, Young-Seok;Ahn, Seung-Do
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.190-197
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    • 2011
  • Currently, the dose distribution calculation used by commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs) for high-dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy is derived from point and line source approximation method recommended by AAPM Task Group 43 (TG-43). However, the study of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is required in order to assess the accuracy of dose calculation around three-dimensional Ir-192 source. In this study, geometry factor was calculated using segmented sources integration method by dividing microSelectron HDR Ir-192 source into smaller parts. The Monte Carlo code (MCNPX 2.5.0) was used to calculate the dose rate $\dot{D}(r,\theta)$ at a point ($r,\theta$) away from a HDR Ir-192 source in spherical water phantom with 30 cm diameter. Finally, anisotropy function and radial dose function were calculated from obtained results. The obtained geometry factor was compared with that calculated from line source approximation. Similarly, obtained anisotropy function and radial dose function were compared with those derived from MCPT results by Williamson. The geometry factor calculated from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was within 0.2% for $r{\geq}0.5$ cm and 1.33% for r=0.1 cm, respectively. The relative-root mean square error (R-RMSE) of anisotropy function obtained by this study and Williamson was 2.33% for r=0.25 cm and within 1% for r>0.5 cm, respectively. The R-RMSE of radial dose function was 0.46% at radial distance from 0.1 to 14.0 cm. The geometry factor acquired from segmented sources integration method and line source approximation was in good agreement for $r{\geq}0.1$ cm. However, application of segmented sources integration method seems to be valid, since this method using three-dimensional Ir-192 source provides more realistic geometry factor. The anisotropy function and radial dose function estimated from MCNPX in this study and MCPT by Williamson are in good agreement within uncertainty of Monte Carlo codes except at radial distance of r=0.25 cm. It is expected that Monte Carlo code used in this study could be applied to other sources utilized for brachytherapy.

The Effects of Technology Innovation and Employment on Start-ups' Credit Ratings: Asymmetric Information Hypothesis vs Competence Hypothesis (기술혁신 활동과 고용 수준이 소규모 창업기업에 대한 신용평가에 미치는 영향: 비대칭적 정보 가설 vs. 역량 가설)

  • Choi, Young-Cheol;Yang, Taeho;Kim, Sunghwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.193-208
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we investigate the effects of technology innovation investments and employment on credit ratings of very small start-up businesses using the data period of 2009 till 2015 test two hypotheses: asymmetric information hypothesis or competence hypothesis. We use financial and non-financial data of 51,903 observations of 12,028 small businesses from a database of a commercial bank and fixed effects panel models and two-stage instrumental variable models. We find that in the short-run small size startups show lower credit ratings than non-startups, and that both technology innovation activities and employment capability improve their credit ratings. In the long-run, technology innovation investments do not improve their credit ratings of later years while employment capability improve their credit ratings of the subsequent year. In addition, the age of startups improves their credit ratings of the current year and until the subsequent two years while employee productivity, fixed ratio and ROA positively affect their credit ratings for up to three years. However, short-term and overall debt ratios, cost of borrowings and firm-size negatively affect their credit ratings for up to three years. The results of the study on credit ratings suggest that credit rating agencies seem to consider both technology innovation activities and employment capability in the credit ratings of small start-ups as 'competence factors' rather than 'asymmetric information factors' with inefficiency and cost burdens. The results also suggest that we must find ways to reflect properly the severe asymmetric information of the early-stage start-ups, and technology innovation activities and employment capability in the credit rating formula.

$^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT for the Preoperative Diagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: The Value of Dual Time Point Imaging (갑상선미세유두암의 수술 전 진단에서 $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT: 이중시간 영상의 유용성)

  • Seo, Young-Duk;Kim, Seong-Min;Kim, Kun-Ho;Kim, Je-Ryong
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.543-556
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: We studied the patterns of FDG uptake of primary papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMCa) lesions and benign thyroid nodules in dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging. Materials and Methods: Consecutive 134 patients (154 lesions) with PTMCa and 49 patients (61 nodules) with benign thyroid nodules equal to or less than 1.0 cm who underwent dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT study before surgery were enrolled. We calculated the maximum standardized uptake value of PTMCa and benign nodules in both time points, and percent change of SUVmax (${\Delta}%SUVmax$) and lesion to background ratio of SUVmax (${\Delta}L:B$% ratio) between both time points. The mean time interval between scans was $23.4{\pm}4.4$ minutes (thyroid to thyroid interval: $10.7{\pm}4.4$ minutes). Results: The mean of SUVmax of PTMCa was increased from $4.9{\pm}4.3$ to $5.3{\pm}4.7$ (p<0.001) and ${\Delta}%SUVmax$ was $12.3{\pm}23.6%$. But, the mean of SUVmax of benign nodules was no definite change ($2.1{\pm}1.0$ to $2.1{\pm}1.3$, p=0.686) and ${\Delta}%SUVmax$ was $-0.3{\pm}20.5%$. Of the 154 PTMCa, 100 nodules (64.9%) showed an increase in SUVmax over time, while 19 (31.1%) of the 61 benign thyroid nodules showed an increase (p<0.001). The dual time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT found more PTMCa in visual assessment (62.3% vs. 76.6%, p=0.006), even in smaller than 0.5 cm (38.6% vs. 60.0%, p=0.011). Conclusion: Dual time time $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging was more useful than single time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging for distinction between PTMCa and benign nodule, especially when nodule showed equivocal or negative findings in single time point $^{18}F$-FDG PET/CT imaging or was smaller than 0.5 cm.

A Study on the Prediction of Suitability Change of Forage Crop Italian Ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) using Spatial Distribution Model (공간분포모델을 활용한 사료작물 이탈리안 라이그라스(Lolium multiflorum L.)의 재배적지 변동예측연구)

  • Kim, Hyunae;Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.103-113
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    • 2014
  • Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.

Diagnostic Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery (진단목적의 비디오 흉강경 수술)

  • Baek, Hyo-Chae;Hong, Yun-Ju;Lee, Du-Yeon;Park, Man-Sil
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.542-547
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    • 1996
  • All patients who underwent video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) for diagnostic purposes from Jan. 1992 to Aug. 1995 were reviewed. The total number of patients were 111 with 57 male and 54 female, and the mean age was 49 years (range 1 to 74). Multiple biopsies from more than one location were performed in 17 patients , pleural biopsies were performed In 49 patients, lung biopsies in 43 patients, mediastinal mass or Iymph node biopsies in 33 patients, and two pericardium biopsies and one dia- phragm biopsy, for a total of 128 biopsies. Seventeen pleural biopsy cases and one lung biopsy case underwent operation under local anesthesia , the rest were performed under general anesthesia. In patients who underwent lung biopsy, the mean age was 49.1 ye rs (range 22~ 73). The operating time was 40 to 170 minutes (mean 97), intravenous or intramuscular injection for pain control was required 0 to 22 times(mean 4.7), and chest tube was inserted from 1 to 26 days(mean 7). In all patients except two, a diagnosis was obtained from the biopsy and complication was encountered in one patient in whom intraoperative paroxysmal atrial tachycardia was detected. In 7 patients, a thorn- cotomy had to be done due to pleural adhesion or intraoperative bleeding, and 7 patients had postoperative complications associated with the chest tube. In the pleural biopsy group, the mean age was 49 years (range 17~ 74). The operating time was 25 to 80 minutes (mean 49), intravenous or intramuscular injection for pain control was needed 0 to 20 times (mean 3.6), and the chest tube was i.nserted for 0 to 67 days(mean 9.8). In all the patients, a diagnosis was possible. The chest tube was inserted for longer than 7 days in 11 patients. In the Iymph node biopsy roup, the mean age was 44.2 years (range 1 ~ 68). The operating time was )0 to 3)5 minutes(mean 105), pain control was required 0 to 15 times(mean 3.2), and a chest tube was kept in place for 1 to 36 days(mean 6.1). In one patient, a diagnosis was not possible and a chest tube was kept in place for longer than 7 days in 7 patients. In the multiple biopsy group, the mean age was 53.1 years(range 20~ 71). The operating time was 15 to 165 minutes(mean 85), and pain control was done from 0 to 17 times(mean 3.1). The chest tube was kept in place for 1 to 16 days (mean 7.9).

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