• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실성분석

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Standardization and Reliability and Validity of the Korean Edition of Profile of Mood States(K-POMS) (한국판 기분상태척도(K-POMS)의 표준화와 신뢰도와 타당도 평가)

  • Kim, Eui-Joong;Lee, Sang-Ick;Jeong, Do-Un;Shin, Min-Sup;Yoon, In-Young
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.39-51
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    • 2003
  • Objectives: The Profile of Mood States (POMS) has been used broadly and frequently in various medical studies with various subjects. For the development and application of the Korean edition of POMS, called K-POMS, we translated POMS into Korean and then evaluated the reliability and validity of K-POMS. Methods: The subjects were 161 male students with a mean age of 18.1 years (15-30) and 244 female students with a mean age of 16.6 years (14-23). They were requested to perform K-POMS and SCL-90-R (Korean version) at the same time. Means, reliability coefficients, and test-retest correlations of K-POMS were calculated. Content validities, correlations with SCL-90-R, and discrimination validities in comparison with 76 depressive patients were obtained, and factor analyses were carried out. Results: Mean scores of Total Mood Disturbance (TMD) and some subscales (T, F, C, V factor) showed a significant difference between male and female students. The internal consistency coefficient ($\alpha$) of the total 65 items was 0.93, and ranged from 0.67 to 0.90 for subscales. Test-retest correlations of 43 subjects ranged from 0.27 to 0.63. Seven psychiatrists rated the properness of the content of each item as more than moderate degree (mean scale points=2.66, in the range of 0 to 4). Every subscale of KPOMS exhibited significant correlation with the matching subscale of SCL-90-R. Mean scores of K-POMS of the total 405 subjects were significantly different from those of the 76 depressive subjects after age correction. Six factors were extracted, accounting for 51.2% of total variance. Factor 6 consisted of 6 items which came from various subscales of POMS and represented "uncertainty and helplessness," which may be somewhat different to depression or sadness proper. Conclusion: The validity and reliability of K-POMS could be confirmed. The significant difference in K-POMS scores between depressive subjects and normal subjects suggests that K-POMS can be used clinically for the evaluation and screening of depression. The main structure of K-POMS is very similar to that of POMS, except the Confusion-Bewilderment factor which shows weak factor consistency in K-POMS. This may reflect some emotional characteristic of Koreans such as an undifferentiated aspect of cognitive efficiency. The sixth factor newly extracted from K-POMS also may be indicative of an unique emotional aspect of young Koreans.

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The Study about Developing More Rational Valuation Model to the Early Stage Companies (초기기업에 대한 정량적 가치평가 모델 구축에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kang, Sang-Wook;Yang, Young-Seok;Yang, Soo-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2017
  • The major goal of this paper falls on developing new rational valuation model, to help companies and investors in the early stage of growth as to preparing and negotiating valuation of investment, by applying new reasonable discount indexes of calculating Discount Cash Flow in valuation of the start-up which has been recognized the critical fatal flaws of DCF with them. There are three specific studies done in this paper. First, this paper found the solid and viable bases of rational discount indexes as to applying DCF in valuing companies in the early growth stage with reviewing the previous studies including Berkus method, Scorecard Method, and Risk factor Summation method classified the most effective tools of valuing pre-revenue generating companies. Second, this paper quoted and analyzed the previous models and studies, so called, 'DCF-Prime' of applying DCF method as to value companies in the early growth stage by taking all risk factors innate to the companies in the early growth stage as the discount rate Beta coefficient. Third, this paper propose more viable and solid valuation models, so called, 'DCF-Plus'of combing all validated valuation factors in Berkus, Scorecard, and Risk Factor Summation methods into applying separate discount bracket after DCF Valuation over the companies in the early growth stage instead of taking them as the factors of discount rate, beta coefficient, like the previous model of DCF-Prime. DCF-Plus mainly developed in this paper will not only provide more rational valuation bases as to investment negotiation between companies and investors in the early growth stage, but also providing more accountable guidelines to companies in the early growth as to prepare investment raising and accelerating their company's value by themselves.

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Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

Processing and Quality Control of Flux Data at Gwangneung Forest (광릉 산림의 플럭스 자료 처리와 품질 관리)

  • Lim, Hee-Jeong;Lee, Young-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.82-93
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    • 2008
  • In order to ensure a standardized data analysis of the eddy covariance measurements, Hong and Kim's quality control program has been updated and used to process eddy covariance data measured at two levels on the main flux tower at Gwangneung site from January to May in 2005. The updated program was allowed to remove outliers automatically for $CO_2$ and latent heat fluxes. The flag system consists of four quality groups(G, D, B and M). During the study period, the missing data were about 25% of the total records. About 60% of the good quality data were obtained after the quality control. The number of record in G group was larger at 40m than at 20m. It is due that the level of 20m was within the roughness sublayer where the presence of the canopy influences directly on the character of the turbulence. About 60% of the bad data were due to low wind speed. Energy balance closure at this site was about 40% during the study period. Large imbalance is attributed partly to the combined effects of the neglected heat storage terms, inaccuracy of ground heat flux and advection due to local wind system near the surface. The analysis of wind direction indicates that the frequent occurrence of positive momentum flux was closely associated with mountain valley wind system at this site. The negative $CO_2$ flux at night was examined in terms of averaging time. The results show that when averaging time is larger than 10min, the magnitude of calculated $CO_2$ fluxes increases rapidly, suggesting that the 30min $CO_2$ flux is influenced severely by the mesoscale motion or nonstationarity. A proper choice of averaging time needs to be considered to get accurate turbulent fluxes during nighttime.

High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction using distributed hydrological model WRF-Hydro and numerical weather forecast GDAPS (분포형 수문모형 WRF-Hydro와 기상수치예보모형 GDAPS를 활용한 고해상도 중기 유량 예측)

  • Kim, Sohyun;Kim, Bomi;Lee, Garim;Lee, Yaewon;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.333-346
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    • 2024
  • High-resolution medium-range streamflow prediction is crucial for sustainable water quality and aquatic ecosystem management. For reliable medium-range streamflow predictions, it is necessary to understand the characteristics of forcings and to effectively utilize weather forecast data with low spatio-temporal resolutions. In this study, we presented a comparative analysis of medium-range streamflow predictions using the distributed hydrological model, WRF-Hydro, and the numerical weather forecast Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS) in the Geumho River basin, Korea. Multiple forcings, ground observations (AWS&ASOS), numerical weather forecast (GDAPS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), were ingested to investigate the performance of streamflow predictions with highresolution WRF-Hydro configuration. In terms of the mean areal accumulated rainfall, GDAPS was overestimated by 36% to 234%, and GLDAS reanalysis data were overestimated by 80% to 153% compared to AWS&ASOS. The performance of streamflow predictions using AWS&ASOS resulted in KGE and NSE values of 0.6 or higher at the Kangchang station. Meanwhile, GDAPS-based streamflow predictions showed high variability, with KGE values ranging from 0.871 to -0.131 depending on the rainfall events. Although the peak flow error of GDAPS was larger or similar to that of GLDAS, the peak flow timing error of GDAPS was smaller than that of GLDAS. The average timing errors of AWS&ASOS, GDAPS, and GLDAS were 3.7 hours, 8.4 hours, and 70.1 hours, respectively. Medium-range streamflow predictions using GDAPS and high-resolution WRF-Hydro may provide useful information for water resources management especially in terms of occurrence and timing of peak flow albeit high uncertainty in flood magnitude.

The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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Effect Assessment and Derivation of Ecological Effect Guideline on CO2-Induced Acidification for Marine Organisms (이산화탄소 증가로 인한 해수 산성화가 해양생물에 미치는 영향평가 및 생태영향기준 도출)

  • Gim, Byeong-Mo;Choi, Tae Seob;Lee, Jung-Suk;Park, Young-Gyu;Kang, Seong-Gil;Jeon, Ei-Chan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2014
  • Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is recognizing one of method responding the climate change with reduction of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. In Korea, due to its geological characteristics, sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage is regarded as more practical approach than on-land storage under the goal of its deployment. However, concerns on potential $CO_2$ leakage and relevant acidification issue in the marine environment can be an important subject in recently increasing sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage sites. In the present study effect data from literatures were collected in order to conduct an effect assessment of elevated $CO_2$ levels in marine environments using a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) various marine organisms such as microbe, crustacean, echinoderm, mollusc and fish. Results from literatures using domestic species were compared to those from foreign literatures to evaluate the reliability of the effect levels of each biological group and end-point. Ecological effect guidelines through estimating level of pH variation (${\delta}pH$) to adversely affect 5 and 50% of tested organisms, HC5 and HC50, were determined using SSD of marine organisms exposed to the $CO_2$-induced acidification. Estimated HC5 as ${\delta}pH$ of 0.137 can be used as only interim quality guideline possibly with adequate assessment factor. In the future, the current interim guideline as HC5 of ${\delta}pH$ in this study will look forward to compensate with supplement of ecotoxicological data reflecting various trophic levels and indigenous species.

Melodrama, the Paradox of Modern Imagination Coordinating Moral Norms and Emotions -Based on the Developmental Approach (멜로드라마, 도덕규범과 감정을 조율하는 근대적 상상력의 역설 -발생론적 접근을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung-Oak
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.9-54
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    • 2019
  • Since the birth of melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution. The modern melodrama was formed in the period between the end of the 18th century and the start of the 19th century. It was born at the intersectional point of the contradictions of the modern imagination and the political paradox of the French Revolution, which demanded an autonomous citizenship but did not recognize a woman as a citizen. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in the modern melodrama is a political aspiration to restore a corrupt society by glamorizing a woman as a moral icon. This was an icon to save a society under divide and crisis and a coordination of emotions to conceal sexist violence in the politics of the exclusion of women. The aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears reproduced in modern melodrama has consistently been considered under negative evaluation such as a play of moral hypocrisy and vulgar drama. However, the academic interest in melodrama in the 1970s has been amplified due to the "Sirk-melo" which is a transition to the new aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears, encompassing not only women, but also races and classes. In modern society, entering the era of uncertainty, where various social problems, national disasters, and global disasters have become commonplace, 'the aesthetic of women's sacrifice and tears' are shifting from gender differences to various victim narratives. Reviewing new theoretical trends and changes of recent melodrama as well as analyzing specific works are left as follow-up tasks.Since the birth of the melodrama in the early Enlightenment era, it has flowed through various cultures and media. In order to grasp the principle of differentiation of melodrama and the direction of its change, a developmental approach to the formation process of melodrama is basically necessary. In this regard, this paper examines the formation process of modern melodrama and its aesthetic features around the time of the French Revolution.

Fault reactivation potential during $CO_2$ injection in the Gippsland Basin, Australia (호주 Gippsland Basin에서 $CO_2$ 주입 중 단층 재활성화의 가능성)

  • Ruth, Peter J. van;Nelson, Emma J.;Hillis, Richard R.
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.50-59
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    • 2006
  • The risk of fault reactivation in the Gippsland Basin was calculated using the FAST (Fault Analysis Seal Technology) technique, which determines fault reactivation risk by estimating the increase in pore pressure required to cause reactivation within the present-day stress field. The stress regime in the Gippsland Basin is on the boundary between strike-slip and reverse faulting: maximum horizontal stress $({\sim}\;40.5\;Mpa/km)$ > vertical stress (21 Mpa/km) ${\sim}$ minimum horizontal stress (20 MPa/km). Pore pressure is hydrostatic above the Campanian Volcanics of the Golden Beach Subgroup. The NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation $(139^{\circ}N)$ determined herein is broadly consistent with previous estimates, and verifies a NW-SE maximum horizontal stress orientation in the Gippsland Basin. Fault reactivation risk in the Gippsland Basin was calculated using two fault strength scenarios; cohesionless faults $(C=0;{\mu}=0.65)$ and healed faults $(C=5.4;\;{\mu}=0.78)$. The orientations of faults with relatively high and relatively low reactivation potential are almost identical for healed and cohesionless fault strength scenarios. High-angle faults striking NE-SW are unlikely to reactivate in the current stress regime. High-angle faults oriented SSE-NNW and ENE-WSW have the highest fault reactivation risk. Additionally, low-angle faults (thrust faults) striking NE-SW have a relatively high risk of reactivation. The highest reactivation risk for optimally oriented faults corresponds to an estimated pore pressure increase (Delta-P) of 3.8 MPa $({\sim}548\;psi)$ for cohesionless faults and 15.6 MPa $({\sim}2262\;psi)$ for healed faults. The absolute values of pore pressure increase obtained from fault reactivation analysis presented in this paper are subject to large errors because of uncertainties in the geomechanical model (in situ stress and rock strength data). In particular, the maximum horizontal stress magnitude and fault strength data are poorly constrained. Therefore, fault reactivation analysis cannot be used to directly measure the maximum allowable pore pressure increase within a reservoir. We argue that fault reactivation analysis of this type can only be used for assessing the relative risk of fault reactivation and not to determine the maximum allowable pore pressure increase a fault can withstand prior to reactivation.

The Effects of Cognitive Bias on Entrepreneurial Opportunity Evaluations through Perceived Risks in Entrepreneurial Self-Efficacy (창업가의 인지편향이 지각된 위험과 조절된 창업효능감에 따라 창업기회평가에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Daeyop;Park, Jaehwan
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.95-112
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    • 2020
  • This paper is to investigate how cognitive bias of college students and entrepreneurs relates to perceived risks and entrepreneurial opportunities that represent uncertainty, and how various cognitive bias and entrepreneurial efficacy In the same way. The purpose of this study is to find improvement points of entrepreneurship education for college students and to suggest problems and improvement possibilities in the decision making process of current entrepreneurs. This empirical study is a necessary to improve the decision-making of individuals who want to start a business at the time when various attempts are made to activate the start-up business and increase the sustainability of the existing SME management. And understanding of the difference in opportunity evaluation, and suggests that it is necessary to provide good opportunities together with the upbringing of entrepreneurs. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, questionnaires were conducted for college students and entrepreneurs. A total of 363 questionnaire data were obtained and demonstrated through structural equation modeling. This study confirms that there is some relationship between perceived risk and cognitive bias. Overconfidence and control illusions among cognitive bias have a significant relationship between perceived risk and wealth. Especially, it is confirmed that control illusion of college students has a significant relationship with perceived risk. Second, cognitive bias demonstrated some significant relationship with opportunity evaluation. Although we did not find evidence that excess self-confidence is related to opportunity evaluation, we have verified that control illusions and current status bias are related to opportunity evaluation. Control illusions were significant in both college students and entrepreneurs. Third, perceived risk has a negative relationship with opportunity evaluation. All students, regardless of whether they are college students or entrepreneurs, judge opportunities positively if they perceive low risk. Fourth, it can be seen from the college students 'group that entrepreneurial efficacy has a moderating effect between perceived risk and opportunity evaluation, but no significant results were found in the entrepreneurs' group. Fifth, the college students and entrepreneurs have different cognitive bias, and they have proved that there is a different relationship between entrepreneurial opportunity evaluation and perceived risk. On the whole, there are various cognitive biases that are caused by time pressure or stress on college students and entrepreneurs who have to make judgments in uncertain opportunities, and in this respect, they can improve their judgment in the future. At the same time, university students can have a positive view of new opportunities based on high entrepreneurial efficacy, but if they fully understand the intrinsic risks of entrepreneurship through entrepreneurial education and fully understand the cognitive bias present in direct entrepreneurial experience, You will get a better opportunity assessment. This study has limitations in that it is based on the fact that university students and entrepreneurs are integrated, and that the survey respondents are selected by the limited random sampling method. It is necessary to conduct more systematic research based on more faithful data in the absence of the accumulation of entrepreneurial research data. Second, the translation tools used in the previous studies were translated and the meaning of the measurement tools might not be conveyed due to language differences. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a more precise scale for the accuracy of the study. Finally, complementary research should be done to identify what competitive opportunities are and what opportunities are appropriate for entrepreneurs.