• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 분석

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Digital Revolution and Welfare State Reforms: Revisiting Social Investment and Social Protection (기술혁명과 미래 복지국가 개혁의 논점: 다시 사회투자와 사회보호로)

  • Choi, Young Jun;Choi, Jung Eun;Ryu, Jung Min
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.3-43
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    • 2018
  • The digital revolution has brought about both positive expectations and negative concerns. Many experts predict that the current technological revolution, so-called "Fourth Industrial Revolution", which is expected to increase productivity in a disruptive way, has significant implications on employment and the labor market. In subsequence, the possible demise of the traditional employment system could markedly undermine the comtemporary welfare state. As a result, basic income has emerged as an alternative. However, little welfare state research has conducted the systematic review on the impact of the present technological revolution on employment and welfare states. In this paper, we will start to review the gist of the digital revolution and critically review recent studies on its effects on employment and welfare states together with actual case studies. In particular, we will investigate the experiences of platform economies of Uber and Amazon Mechanical Turk, and the German experience from 'Work 4.0'. Finally, we will discuss key issues of future welfare state reforms. This research argues that the effects of the technological revolution on employment and welfare state policies would be enormous, but they will be most likely to be mediated by domestic political and policy institutions. It emphasizes the importance of high-quality social investment that would enable individuals to flexibly adapt technological changes and support creative human capital resource. But, high-quality social investment could not be sustained without the decent social protection system that universally provides security to people.

A Critical Review of Alternative Pathways to New Social Policy in Development Context (개발 맥락에서 신사회정책에 대한 대안적 접근의 비판적 고찰)

  • Yi, Ilcheong;Sohn, Hyuk-Sang;Kim, Taekyoon
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.191-217
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    • 2018
  • At the turn of the century, social policy in both developed and developing countries confronts new challenges and risks caused by the multiple crises in finance, food, energy and climate change. Changes in the structures of risks are particularly significant. In addition, the global economic crisis starting in 2008 has provided a new context of the global political economy. Both developed and developing countries have responded to these new challenges and risks differently. What risks do these responses aim to address? How can these responses address these risks? Can these diverse responses offer lessons for lower income economies attempting to address social development challenges alongside economic growth in the globalised and increasingly uncertain 21st century context? This paper aims to provide a critical review of the new trends, phenomena or directions of social policy discourse and practice to respond to the new risks in the context of development. Explaining the nature and forms of new challenges and risks and pointing out the potentials and limitations of social policy discourse, it introduces the key points of the previous research we have to keep in mind in formulating alternative social policy approaches. General principles and core elements of social policy in addressing new challenges and risks in the $21^{st}$ century, which are particularly visible in social policy reforms in emerging economies, are highlighted as a conclusion.

Analysis of Water Quality Variation by Lowering of Water Level in Gangjeong-Goryong Weirin Nakdong River (낙동강 강정고령보 수위저하 운영에 따른 수질 변동특성 분석)

  • Park, Dae-Yeon;Park, Hyung-Seok;Kim, Sung-Jin;Chung, Se-Woong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.245-262
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    • 2019
  • The objectives of this study were to construct a three-dimensional water quality model (EFDC) for the river reach between Chilgok Weir and Gangjeong-Goryong Weir (GGW) located in Nakdong River, and evaluate the effect of hydraulic changes, such as water level and flow velocity, on the control of water quality and algae biomass. After calibration, the model accurately simulated the temporal changes of the upper and lower water temperatures that collected every 10 minutes, and appropriately reproduced changes in organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, and cyanobacteria. However, the simulated values were overestimated for the diatoms and green algae cell density, possibly due to the uncertainties of the parameters associated with algae metabolism and the lack of zooplankton predation function in the simulations. As a result of scenario simulation of running the water level of GGW from EL. 19.44 m to EL. 14.90 m (4.54 m drop), Chl-a and algae cell density decreased significantly.In particular,the cyanobacteria on the surface layer, which causes algal bloom, declined by 56.1% in the low water level scenario compared to the existing management level. The results of this study are in agreement with the previous studies that maintenance of critical flow velocity is effective for controlling cyanobacteria, and imply that hydraulic control such as decrease of water level and residence time in GGW is an alternative to limit the overgrowth of algae.

Vulnerability Assessment of Landslide by Heavy Rain to Establish Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Local Governments (지자체 기후변화 적응계획 수립지원을 위한 집중호우에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-kun;Kim, Ho Gul;Baek, Gyoung Hye;Seo, Changwan;Kim, Jaeuk;Song, Changkeun;Yu, Jeong Ah
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2012
  • KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) projected that annual mean temperatures of South Korea will rise $3.8^{\circ}C$ and the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea. Thus the risk of landslide by heavy rain is expected to increase. After the landslide of Mt. Umyeon occurred in July 2011, disaster of forest sector is highlighted. Therefore vulnerability assessment of landslide is urgent. However, vulnerability assessment based on local governments was not done yet. In this study, we assess vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain for local governments. We used several scenarios to consider uncertainty of climate change. Through this study, local governments can use the results to establish adaptation plans. Also, the results could be used to decrease vulnerability of landslide.

A Focus Group Interview Study on the Daycare Center Director's Recognition and Improvement of Male Teacher's Employment (어린이집 원장의 남자교사 채용 인식과 개선방안에 대한 포커스 집단 연구)

  • Lim, Myeung Hee;Kim, Seong Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Child Education & Care
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.123-143
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    • 2018
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate daycare center director's awareness of male teacher recruitment and need for effective male teacher recruitment. Methods: To this end, eight directors of child care centers with male teachers were selected as subjects of study. The data collection method was applied to the Focus Group Interview method, and a four interviews were conducted for two to two and a half hours. Results: After the interview data was analyzed, the contents were categorized into two major themes and six sub themes in awareness of male teacher recruitment by director of daycare center. The two major themes were (1) A vague fear of upcoming difficulties (2) The light and darkness of male teachers in the organization culture of childcare. Looking at the results, in a vague fear of upcoming difficulties theme includes administrative disadvantages, gender-related social atmosphere, and uncertainty about their role performance. Second, in the light and darkness theme includes women-centered organizational culture and adaptation, the vision of child care sites, and the role of male teachers at childcare sites. Next the contents were categorized into one major theme and four sub themes in need for effective male teacher recruitment by director of daycare center. The major theme was a male teacher's way into the daycare site, and sub five themes were expanding opportunities for child care experience and practices, a shift in the perception that it's not a man, it's an individual problem, maximizing the strengths of men, and improving the system. Conclusion/Implications: Based on these results, several specific implications of need for effective male teacher recruitment were suggested.

Electroencephalogram(EEG) Activation Changes and Correlations of signal with EMG Output by left and right biceps (좌우 이두근의 근전도 출력에 따른 뇌파의 활성도 변화와 관련성 탐색)

  • Jeon, BuIl;Kim, Jongwon
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.727-734
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    • 2019
  • This paper confirms whether the movement or specific operation of the muscles in the process of transferring a person from the brain can find a signal showing an essential feature of a certain part of the brain. As a rule, the occurrence of EEG(Electroencephalogram) changes when a signal is received from a specific action or from an induced action. These signals are very vague and difficult to distinguish from the naked eye. Therefore, it is necessary to define a signal for analysis before classification. The EEG form can be divided into the alpha, beta, delta, theta and gamma regions in the frequency ranges. The specific size of these signals does not reflect the exact behavior or intention, since the band or energy difference of the activated frequencies varies depending on the EEG measurement domain. However, if different actions are performed in a specific method, it is possible to classify the movement based on EEG activity and to determine the EEG tendency affecting the movement. Therefore, in this article, we first study the EEG expression pattern based on the activation of the left and right biceps EMG, and then we determine whether there is a significant difference between the EEG due to the activation of the left and right muscles through EEG. If we can find the EEG classification criteria in accordance with the EMG activation, it can help to understand the form of the transmitted signal in the process of transmitting signals from the brain to each muscle. In addition, we can use a lot of unknown EEG information through more complex types of brain signal generation in the future.

A development of multivariate drought index using the simulated soil moisture from a GM-NHMM model (GM-NHMM 기반 토양함수 모의결과를 이용한 합성가뭄지수 개발)

  • Park, Jong-Hyeon;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Tae-Woong;Kwon, Hyun Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.8
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2019
  • The most drought assessments are based on a drought index, which depends on univariate variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. However, there is a limitation in representing the drought conditions with single variables due to their complexity. It has been acknowledged that a multivariate drought index can more effectively describe the complex drought state. In this context, this study propose a Copula-based drought index that can jointly consider precipitation and soil moisture. Unlike precipitation data, long-term soil moisture data is not readily available so that this study utilized a Gaussian Mixture Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov chain Model (GM-NHMM) model to simulate the soil moisture using the observed precipitation and temperature ranging from 1973 to 2014. The GM-NHMM model showed a better performance in terms of reproducing key statistics of soil moisture, compared to a multiple regression model. Finally, a bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the drought duration and severity, and it was confirmed that the recent droughts over Jeollabuk-do in 2015 have a 20-year return period.

A Study on the Algorithms for One-way Transmission in IPv6 Environment (IPv6 환경에서의 일방향 통신 알고리즘에 대한 연구)

  • Koh, Keun Ho;Ahn, Seong Jin
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2017
  • In the early 1990s, IETF(Internet Engineering TaskForce) had started the discussion on new address protocol that can modify and supplement various drawbacks of existing IPv4 address protocol with the introduction of CIDR(Classless Inter-Domain Routing) which is a temporary solution for IPv4 address depletion, NAT, private IP address. While various standards related to new address protocol has been proposed, the SIPP(Simple Internet Protocol Plus) was adopted among them because it is regarded as the most promising solution. And this protocol has been developed into current IPv6. The new concepts are introduced with modifying a lot of deficiencies in the exisitng IPv4 such as real-time data processing, performance on QoS, security and the efficiency of routing. Since many security threats in IPv6 environment still exist, the necessity of stable data communication environment has been brought up continuously. This paper deveopled one-way communication algorithm in IPv6 based on the high possibility of protecting the system from uncertain and potential risk factors if the data is transmitted in one way. After the analysis of existing IPv6 and ICMPv6, this paper suggests one-way communication algorithm as a solution for existing IPv6 and ICMPv6 environment.

Review on Applicability of Local Scour Depth Calculation Formula in River (하천 세굴심 산정을 위한 교각 세굴심 산정식의 적용성 검토)

  • Min, ByungYun;Chang, HyungJoon;Lee, HoJin;Kim, SungDuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2019
  • The basic analysis of Soil and structural mechanics for the bridge substructure affected by the flow of water is sufficient in the construction of such bridges, but the stability of scour resulting from hydraulic phenomena is insufficient. In addition, it is not enough to estimate the scour depth of the bridge which reflects the watershed characteristics of the domestic river because it uses the formula for calculating the scour depth of the overseas piers in calculating the scour depth of the bridge. In this study, the application of the CSU (1993) formula, which is currently applied to the national river design criteria, was reviewed between the two formulas after calculating the scour after calculating the scour by applying another bridge deck scour calculation formula to take into account the uncertainty in the calculation of scour. In this study, in addition to the CSU (1993) formula, which is currently applied to Korean river design criteria, another scour depth calculation formula is applied to calculate uncertainty in scour depth calculation, was reviewed between the two formulas. The review confirmed that the SSE (%) showed a difference of at least 2.08%, up to 91.23%, and SSEn(%) at least 0.19%, up to 415.91%, when compared to the measured depth of the pier based on the hydraulic model experiment and the depth of the pier calculated with the nine scour depth formulas in use. In other words, it is confirmed that there are many differences between the scouring formulas of piers. The results of this study are expected to be used to estimate scour depth in future river design.

A Study on Change Orders in Overseas Construction using Feature Selection - Focus on Plant Construction in the Middle East - (Feature Selection을 활용한 해외 건설의 공사변경 관리에 관한 연구 - 중동 플랜트 건설프로젝트를 중심으로 -)

  • Hong, Sunyoung;Yeom, Chunho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2021
  • This paper looks into how to enhance construction project management, focusing on the change order, which is often considered one of the major causes for construction delays, disputes, and claims in the middle east construction. First, this paper categorizes the major causes of change orders. It suggests a detailed classification standard for affecting factors resulting from change orders based on a case study result of an on-going construction project in the Middle East. In particular, this paper presents a method to apply a machine learning-based feature selection to quantify the importance of change order triggers and affecting factors. As a result, the case study identifies six major change order triggers and eight affecting factors. Also, a meaningful relationship between change order triggers and affecting factors by each category is presented. This paper will contribute to setting a clear guideline for change order management for the international plant construction field while helping prevent construction delays and cost run-ups by reducing the time required for change order resolution between project owners and contractors.