• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 분석

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정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 화력발전소 보일러 프로세스의 고장진단

  • 김응석;오영일;변승현
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.169-169
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    • 1999
  • 최근 산업 플랜트의 공정제어 시스템은 복잡하고 대규모화되어 고장 발생시 경제적 손실과 위험성이 증폭되어 규정된 안정서와 신뢰성 확보가 필수적이라 할 수 있다. 고장검출 및 진단기법은 시스템의 신뢰성을 높이기 위한 효과적인 방안을 연구하는 것으로 현대에 들어서 많은 학자들의 관심을 끌고 있으며 실제 계통에 점차적으로 응용되고 있다. 현재까지 개발된 고장검출 및 진단기법은 사용된 프로세스 모델의 형태, 고장검출 진단 알고리즘에 따라 다양하게 분류 될 수 있으며 일반적으로 사용된 모델에 따라 크게 1) 정량적 모델에 근거한 해석적 기법, 2) 정성적 모델에 근거한 기법, 3) 지식기반 진단 기법으로 구분 할 수 있다. 이중 정량적 모델 기법은 대상계통의 수학적 모델에 근거하여 운전 데이터를 분석함으로서 고장검출 진단을 수행하는 해석적 기법으로서 근본적으로 계통의 정확한 수학적 모델을 요구하므로 불확실성을 포함한 계통 및 비선형성이 강한 계통등에는 적용이 곤란하다. 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법은 정량적 진단 기법과는 달리 대상 프로세스에 대한 수학적 모델 대신에 운전자의 경험과 프로세스 변수간의 상호 작용 및 고장의 전파과정, 고장원인과 증상과의 직접적인 관계에 대한 구조적 지식에 근거한 것으로 고장원인에 대한 계통의 동작을 추론 할 수 있으며, 상황 변화에 따른 영향을 예측할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 정성적 모델 및 지식기반 기법에 근거한 고장검출 및 진단 기술을 화력 발전소 보일로 프로세스에 적용하여 정성적 시뮬레이션에 의한 설비의 고장을 조기에 발견하여 고장 파급으로 인한 발전 정지 및 설비의 손상 확대를 방지하고 고장 발생시 신속한 원인 규명 및 후속 조치관련 정보들을 운전원에게 제공할 목적으로 현재 전력원에서 개발중인 지능형 경보시스템에 대하여 기술하고자 한다.음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 다음과 같이 설명하였다. 서로 상반되는 것들이 부딛힘이 없이 공존하고 일상의 논리가 무시된다. 부정, 의심이 없고 확실한 것이 없다. 한 대상에 가졌던 생각이 다른 대상에 옮겨간다(displacement). 한 대상이 여러 대상이 갖고 있는 의미를 함축하고 있다(condensation). 시각적인 순서가 무시된다. 마음속의 생각과 외부의 실제적인 일을 구분하지 못한다. 시간 상의 순서가 있다가 없다가 한다. 차례로 일어나야 할 일이 동시에 한꺼번에 일어난다. 대상들이 서로 비슷해지고 동시에 있을 수 없는 대상들이 함께 나타난다. 사고의 정상적인 구조가 와해된다. Matte-Blance는 무의식에서는 여러 독립된 대상들간의 구분을 없애며, 주체와 객체를 하나로 보려는 대칭화(symmetrization)의 경향이 있기 때문에 이런 변화가 생긴다고 하였다. 또 대칭화가 진행되면 무한대의 느낌을 갖게 되어, 전지(moniscience), 전능(omnipotence), 무력감(impotence), 이상화(idealization)가 나타난다. 그러나 무의식에 대칭화만 있는 것은 아니며, 의식의 사고양식인 비대칭도 어느 정도 나타나며, 대칭화의 정도에 따라, 대상들이 잘 구분되어 있는 단계, 의식수준의 감정단계, 집단 내에서의 대칭화 단계, 집단간에서의 대칭화 단계, 구분이 없어지는 단계로 구분하였다.systems. We believe that this taxonomy is a significant contribution because it adds clarity, completeness, and "global perspective" to workflow architectural discussions. The vocabulary suggested here

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The effect of job stress of system maintenance staff on emotion exhaustion: Focusing on the moderating effect of professional identity (정보시스템 운영인력의 직무 스트레스가 정서적 소진에 미치는 영향: 전문직 정체성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Lim, Hee-Jeong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.97-105
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    • 2018
  • The fourth industrial revolution is expected to bring about great changes in information technology sector and create a variety of jobs. However, the psychological anxiety of IT staff is increasing due to stress and uncertainty created by the new technologies. Accordingly, researchers examined how professional identity moderate the effect of job stress of system maintenance staff on emotion exhaustion. For empirical studies, data was collected from 160 employees responsible for managing and supporting IS, and the hypothesis was verified using SPSS 21. The analysis results showed that role conflicts, role ambiguity, and qualitative work overload, which are components of job stress, have affected the emotion exhaustion. Professional identity had a moderating effect the relationship between qualitative work overload and emotion exhaustion. On the other hand, professional identity did not moderate the relationship between role conflict and emotion exhaustion, role ambiguity and emotion exhaustion. As professional identity lessen the psychological burden and emotion exhaustion of introducing new technologies, organizations need to provide support to enhance professional identity for system maintenance staff.

A Study on the 'fragmentation' trend of modern film montage (현대영화 몽타주의 '파편화(fragmentation)' 경향 연구)

  • LEE, Jiyoung
    • Trans-
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    • v.3
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    • pp.29-53
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    • 2017
  • The film scholar Vincent Amiel divides into three types of montage through his book The Aesthetics of Montage ; Montage narratif, Montage discursif, and Montage decorrespondances. These three categories are the concept that encompasses the aesthetic class to which most movies belong. Early films pursued the essential and basic functions of editing, which tend to be modified in the direction of enhancing the director's goals over time. In this way, "Expressive Montage" is one of most important concepts of montage, not as a 'methodology' that combines narrative but as a 'purpose'. In the montage stage, the expressive montage work is done through three steps of decision. The process of 'combining' to combine the selected films in a certain order, after the process of 'selection' which selects only necessary parts of the rush film, and 'connection' to determine the scene connection considering the duration of the shot. The connection is the final stage of the montage. There are exceptions, of course. When fiction films of classical narratives use close-ups, or when using models or objects of neutered animals, the film induces the tendency of a "montage decorrespondances" rather than a "montage narratif" or "montage discursif". This study attempts to analyze the tendency of montage of works with 'uncertain connection' through 'collage' used by close-ups and montage decorrespondances as 'fragmentation tendency of modern films'. The fragmentation of the montage in contemporary film breaks the continuous and structural nature of the film, and confuses the narration structure that is visible on the surface of the film. The tendency of the fragmentation of the montage, which started from this close-up, seems to give an answer to the extensibility of the modern image.

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Application of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model to the Urban Flood Analysis (포아송 클러스터 강우 생성 모형을 이용한 도시 홍수 해석)

  • Park, Hyunjin;Yang, Jungsuk;Han, Jaemoon;Kim, Dongkyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.9
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    • pp.729-741
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the applicability of MBLRP (Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse) rainfall generation model for an urban flood simulation which is a type of Poisson cluster rainfall generation model. This study constructed XP-SWMM model for Namgajwa area of Hongjecheon basin, which is a two-dimensional pipe network-surface flood simulation program and computed a flood discharge and a flooded area with input data of synthetic rainfall time series of 200 years that were generated by the MBLRP model. This study compared the data of flood with synthetic rainfall and flood with corresponding values which were based on design rainfall. The results showed that the flooded area computed with MBLRP model was somewhat smaller than the corresponding values on the basis of the design. A degree of underestimation was from 8% (5 year) to 34% (200 year) and the degree of underestimation increased as a return period increased. This study is meaningful in that it proposes methodology that enables quantifiability of uncertain variables which are related to a flooding through Monte Carlo analysis of urban flooding simulation and applicability and limitations thereof.

Default Risk Mitigation Effect of Financial Structure and Characteristic in BOT Project Finance (BOT 프로젝트 파이낸스의 금융구조 및 특성의 채무불이행 위험완화 효과)

  • Jun, Jae-Bum;Lee, Jae-Sue;Lee, Sam-Su
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2011
  • One of the advantages of BOT PF(Project Finance) is the government can be protected from risks involved in projects as the private finances, builds, and operates relevant projects. Moreover, the private may avoid outstanding responsibility in case of default thanks to BOT PF's unique financial structure and characteristics. However, despite increasing attention on risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF to default risk with emerging controversies of capital crunch, introduction of IFRS, and contingent liabilities, valuation of default risk mitigation effect caused by financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF still seems sophisticated due to uncertain cash flows, complexly layered contracts, and their interaction. So, this paper is to show the theoretical frame to assess the default risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF with option pricing and related financial economic theories and to provide some meaningful implications. Finally, this research shows that the financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF help mitigate the default risk and default risk mitigation effect increases as change of relevant variables on financial feasibility gets the BOT project less financially feasible.

Reliability-Based Assessment of Structural Safety of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge Erected by the FCM and FSM during Construction (FCM과 FSM공법에 의한 강-콘크리트 복합사장교의 신뢰성에 기초한 시공간 구조안전도평가)

  • Yoon, Jung Hyun;Cho, Hyo Nam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.515-526
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    • 2007
  • In this study, the models and methods for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridge, which consists of steel composite girder and concrete girder erected by the FCM(Free Cantilever Method) and FSM(Full Staging Method) are proposed for the assurance of structural safety and the prevention against bridge collapse during construction. By the structural reliability approach that reasonably considers the uncertainties associated with the resistance and the load effect, the resistance and the load distribution characteristics of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-Stayed Bridgeare defined and the strength limit state equations of permanent structures and temporary structures during construction are suggested. An AFOSM algorithm and MCS technique are used for the reliability analysis of cables, pylons, girders, steel-concrete conjunction part and temporary bents. Also, component reliability analyses are performed at the construction stages based on the structural system model. To demonstrate their rationality and practicality, the proposed models and approaches are applied to a real bridge. The sensitivity analyses of main parameters are performed in order to identify the critical factors that control the safety of similar bridges. As a result, it may be stated that the proposed models could be implemented as a rational and practical approach for the safety assessment of Steel-Concrete Hybrid Cable-stayed bridges erected by FCM and FSM during construction.

Comparative analysis of caisson sections of composite breakwaters evaluated by Level I reliability-based design method (Level I 신뢰성 기반 설계법에 의해 산정된 혼성제 케이슨 단면의 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong Heon;Kim, Sang Ug
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.7
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    • pp.543-554
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    • 2018
  • A methodology has been presented for evaluating the partial safety factors on the sliding failure mode of vertical caissons of composite breakwaters and for determining the cross sections of those by Level I reliability-based design method. Especially, a mathematical model has been suggested for the sake of a consistency of code format as well as convenience of application in practical design, for which the uncertainties associated with buoyancy and its own weight can be taken into account straightforwardly. Furthermore, design criteria equation has been derived by considering accurately the effect of uplift pressure, so that the cross sections of caissons can be assessed which must be safe against the sliding failure. It has been found that cross sections estimated from partial safety factors proposed in this paper are in very good agreement with the results of Level II AFDA and Level III MCS under the same target probability of failure. However, partial safety factors of the Technical Standards and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan and Coastal Engineering Manual in USA tend to estimate much bigger or smaller cross sections in comparison to the present results. Finally, many reliability re-analyses have been performed in order to conform whether the stability level of cross section estimated by Level I reliability-based design method is satisfied with the target probability of failure of partial safety factors or not.

Evaluation of the Clark Unit Hydrograph Parameters Considering Basin and Meteorologic at Conditions : 1. Selection and Analysis of Representative Storm Events (유역 및 기상상태를 고려한 Clark 단위도의 매개변수 평가: 1. 대표 호우사상의 선정 및 분석)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Kee-Wook;Lee, Ji-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.2 s.175
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2007
  • This study evaluated the parameters of Clark unit hydrograph (UH) estimated using the rainfall-runoff measurements and evaluated their variability. This also includes the quantification of basin and meteorological factors using probability density functions, selection of storm events with mean affecting factors, and derivation of average parameters of the Clark UH from storm events selected. Summarizing the results from this procedure are as follows. (1) It is not easy to avoid much uncertainty on the decision of runoff characteristics (that is, the concentration time and storage coefficient) even with some rainfall-runoff events are available. (2) As the distribution function of concentration time is very skewed, a simple arithmetic mean may lead a biased estimate. That is, the arithmetic mean based on the normal distribution can not be representative anymore. The mode may well be the representative in this case. On the other hand, the storage coefficient shows a symmetric distribution function, so the arithmetic mean may be used use for its representative. For the basin in this study, the concentration time in this study is estimated to be about 7 hours, and the storage coefficient about 22 hours.

A study on ecosystem model of the magazines for smart devices Focusing on the case of magazine business in foreign countries (스마트 디바이스 잡지 생태계 모델 연구 - 외국 잡지의 비즈니스 사례를 중심으로)

  • Chang, Yong Ho;Kong, Byoung-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.2641-2654
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    • 2014
  • In the smart media environment, magazine industry has been experiencing a transition to ecosystem of value network, which includes high complexity and ambiguity. Using case study method, this article conducts research on digital convergence, the model of magazine ecosystem and adaptation strategy of global magazine companies. Research findings have it that the way of contents production of global magazines has been based on collaborative production system within communities, expert communities, creative users, media contents companies and magazine platform. The system shows different patterns and characteristics depending on magazine-driven platform, Platform-driven platform or user-driven platform. Collaboration system has been confirmed in various cases: Huffington Post and Zinio which collaborate with media contents companies, Amazon magazines and Bookish with magazine companies, Huffington Post and Wired with expert communities, and Flipboard with creative users and communities. Foreign magazine contents diverge into (paper, electronic, app and web magazine) as they start the lively trades of their contents on the magazine platform. In the area of contents uses, readers employ smart media technology effectively such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence and module individualization, making it possible for the virtuous cycle to remain in the relationship within communities, expert communities and creative users.

A Way to Realize the Concept of Science in Society: the Applicability of Societal Participatory Evaluation on Science (사회 속 과학의 실현 방안: 과학에 대한 사회 참여 평가의 적용가능성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Tae Hee
    • Journal of Science and Technology Studies
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.173-208
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    • 2017
  • Along with its expertise and yearning for freedom, Science has been seduced from Society. Coupled with societal uncertainty and complexity, the Science has faced the difficulty of solving societal issues and recognized its limitation on the control of quality it has kept. This leads to yield its way for opening up the societal participation. With this situation in mind, this paper explores the ways of societal participation on science based on previous studies but limited to evaluation. While the classical evaluation on science is conducted by only experts and not opened to the public, both the participatory and deliberative evaluation on science are open to the public and fitted to this research subject. Both evaluations are in common to expand its involvement to the broader stakeholder than classical one, but have discrepancy in the perspective of evaluands, evaluation methology applied, scope of participants and role of mediators. Along with the main obstacles such as political acceptance, representative of participants, competency of mediators, epistemic limitation and institutional path-dependency, this paper articulates the ways to implement both evaluations. Last but not least, this paper puts an importance on various and consequent research activities on this domain, reorganizing societal system and weighting efforts.