• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 분석

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A Preliminary Study on the Status and Improvement of the Environmental Assessment of Coastal Erosion in Korea (해안침식 환경평가 현황 및 개선방안 연구)

  • Cho, Kwang-Woo;Maeng, Jun-Ho;Shin, Hyun-Hwa;Joo, Yong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.174-181
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    • 2009
  • The present study is a preliminary attempt to effectively incorporate the environmental issue of coastal erosion into the environmental assessment process of Korea. We assess the status of the environmental assessment on coastal erosion for the previous development plans and provide potential directions for the improvement. The considerable project plans should be screened for the impact of coastal erosion, which occupies about 20% of the total project plans reviewed, and the ratio increased with project scale. In addition to screening process, most process including scoping, baseline study, impact assessment, and follow-up need to be improved. The potential directions of improvement are provided in terms of appropriate guideline development, employment of cumulative impact assessment, follow-up improvement and rearrangement of the preparation regulation of environmental assessment. Emphasis is given for follow-up process to review post-monitoring period, to employ science compensation, and to consider the establishment of relevant institution. Final suggestion is made for the establishments of comprehensive national plan to manage coastal erosion and streamlined environmental process from strategic to project levels based on the national plan.

Development of Round Trip Occurrence Simulator Considering Tooth Wear of Drill Bit (시추비트의 마모도를 고려한 라운드 트립 발생 예측 시뮬레이터 개발)

  • Lee, Seung Soo;Kim, Kwang Yeom;Shin, Hyu-Soung
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.480-492
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    • 2013
  • After the introduction of geothermal power generation technology based on engineering reservoir creation that can be applied on non-volcanic region, industrial need for studies on the efficient and economic execution of costly deep-depth drilling work becomes manifest increasingly. However, since it is very difficult to predict duration and cost of boring work with acceptable reliability because of many uncertain events during the execution, efficient and organized work management for drilling is not easily achievable. Especially, the round trip that discretely occurs because of the abrasion of bit takes more time as the depth goes deeper and it has a great impact on the work performance. Therefore, a technology that can simulate the occurrence timing and depth of round trip in advance and therefore optimize them is essentially required. This study divided the abrasion state of bit into eight steps for simulation cases and developed a forecast algorithm, i.e., TOSA which can analyze the depth and timing of round trip occurrence. A methodology that can divide a unit section for simulation has been suggested; while the Bourgoyne and Young model has been used for the forecast of drilling rates and bit abrasion extent by section. Lastly, the designed algorithm has been systemized for the convenience of the user.

Quantitative Analysis of 3D-CRT Radiotherapy Planning Factors with or without IR in Patients with High Density Artifacts (고밀도 인공물 환자에서 반복적 재구성 사용 유무에 따른 3차원 입체조형 방사선 치료 계획 인자의 정량분석)

  • Lee, Gyu-Wook;Choi, U-Hyeong;Jung, Yae-Hyun;Lee, Joo-Hee;Yun, In-Ha;Heo, Yeong-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to assess the usefulness of IR to compensate for uncertainties in inserting high density artificial objects in radiation treatment planning in the 3D-CRT treatment technique. CT images of the subjects with phantom and titanium inserted were obtained from images without IR and images with IR, and the dose evaluation factors HI, MU and volume evaluation factors Volume and PCI were compared. The results of the stainless steel and titanium phantom experiments showed that the volume of high density artificial material was reduced by 4.850% and 11.456% respectively when applying IR. MU decreased 0.924% and 1.181%. HI was down 0.106% and 0.272%. PCI decreased 0.358% and 0.867%. When IR was applied to CT images of subjects with vertebroplasty, Femur alignment pin and wrist alignment pin, the volume of artifacts decreased by 47.76%, 23.841%, and 49.339%. MU also decreased 0.924%, 0.294% and 1.675%, while HI decreased 1.232%, 0.412% and 1.695%. PCI decreases 4.022%, 0.512%, and 13.472%. In conclusion, When IR was applied to 3D-CRT treatment plan, both dose and volume in phantom and subject case with high density artificial insert were reduced.

Confidence Improvement of Disposal Safety by Development of a Safety Case for High-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal (고준위방사성폐기물 처분 Safety Case 개발을 통한 처분안전성 신뢰도 향상)

  • Baik, Min Hoon;Ko, Nak-Youl;Jeong, Jongtae;Kim, Kyung-Su
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.367-384
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    • 2016
  • Many countries have developed a safety case suitable to their own countries in order to improve the confidence of disposal safety in deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste as well as to develop a disposal program and obtain its license. This study introduces and summarizes the meaning, necessity, and development process of the safety case for radioactive waste disposal. The disposal safety is also discussed in various aspects of the safety case. In addition, the status of safety case development in the foreign countries is briefly introduced for Switzerland, Japan, the United States of America, Sweden, and Finland. The strategy for the safety case development that is being developed by KAERI is also briefly introduced. Based on the safety case, we analyze the efforts necessary to improve confidence in disposal safety for high-level radioactive waste. Considering domestic situations, we propose and discuss some implementing methods for the improvement of disposal safety, such as construction of a reliable information database, understanding of processes related to safety, reduction of uncertainties in safety assessment, communication with stakeholders, and ensuring justice and transparency. This study will contribute to the understanding of the safety case for deep geological disposal and to improving confidence in disposal safety through the development of the safety case in Korea for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste.

Statistical Evaluation of Validity of KS Asphalt Penetration Grade System (통계적 분석을 통한 KS 아스팔트 침입도 규격의 문제점 고찰)

  • Kim, Kwang-Woo;Lee, Woo-Hyun;Jung, Jae-Hun;Doh, Young-Soo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4 s.30
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2006
  • In this study, the Korean Industrial Standard(KS) penetration grade system was examined to evaluate its statistical validity. It was found from this limited study that the system has no gap between each grade, the binder falling out of limit trespasses into other binder grade. Therefore, many products can have similar property level with an adjacent grade even though the mean value is within the specification limit. It was also found out that the equal range setup of each grade, such as 20 for 40-60, 60-80, 80-100, has no statistical foundation. Since KS penetration grade is defined without gap between each grade, the producer must maintain the coefficient of variation below the level by the ASTM system to satisfy the normal quality control limit of products. Due to its lack of a gap between grades, higher percentage of products will be duplicated even if the mean is at the median of the specification limits due to material's quality uncertainty. Especially if the mean moves toward the upper limit, a half or more of the binder grade will be overlapped with the upper binder grade. Therefore, KS penetration specification should be immediately modified by statistically valid methodologies.

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Development of Optimal Urban Runoff System : I. Study of Inflow/Infiltration Estimation Considering AHP in Urban Runoff System (최적 도시유출시스템의 개발 : I. 도시유출시스템에서의 AHP를 고려한 불명수량 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Ho;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Kim, Hung-Soo;Kim, Eung-Seok;Jo, Deok-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.195-206
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    • 2004
  • One of the main factors which reduces the efficiency of a sewage treatment plant is the Inflow/Infiltration(Ⅰ/Ⅰ) in the sewer First we must calculate the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ via the investigation of each sewer to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. However, in Korea, we apply the results of a surveyed sample to the entire study area to establish the reduction plan of Ⅰ/Ⅰ. This methodology just considers the total Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area but it does not consider the quantity of Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the individual sewer systems. Therefore, we may need the model to consider the Ⅰ/Ⅰ in the individual sewer systems and we develop the model to calculate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ that happen in urban sewer systems. We estimate the Ⅰ/Ⅰ of individual systems by the developed model and the estimated Ⅰ/Ⅰ are utilized as the basic data for the establishment of Ⅰ/Ⅰ reduction plan. The observed Ⅰ/Ⅰ for the entire study area is distributed into the individual sewer systems according to their defect states. Here, the weights of defect elements are calculated using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and we perform the uncertainty analysis for considering the errors using MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation).

Frequency Analysis Using Bootstrap Method and SIR Algorithm for Prevention of Natural Disasters (풍수해 대응을 위한 Bootstrap방법과 SIR알고리즘 빈도해석 적용)

  • Kim, Yonsoo;Kim, Taegyun;Kim, Hung Soo;Noh, Huisung;Jang, Daewon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2018
  • The frequency analysis of hydrometeorological data is one of the most important factors in response to natural disaster damage, and design standards for a disaster prevention facilities. In case of frequency analysis of hydrometeorological data, it assumes that observation data have statistical stationarity, and a parametric method considering the parameter of probability distribution is applied. For a parametric method, it is necessary to sufficiently collect reliable data; however, snowfall observations are needed to compensate for insufficient data in Korea, because of reducing the number of days for snowfall observations and mean maximum daily snowfall depth due to climate change. In this study, we conducted the frequency analysis for snowfall using the Bootstrap method and SIR algorithm which are the resampling methods that can overcome the problems of insufficient data. For the 58 meteorological stations distributed evenly in Korea, the probability of snowfall depth was estimated by non-parametric frequency analysis using the maximum daily snowfall depth data. The results of frequency based snowfall depth show that most stations representing the rate of change were found to be consistent in both parametric and non-parametric frequency analysis. According to the results, observed data and Bootstrap method showed a difference of -19.2% to 3.9%, and the Bootstrap method and SIR(Sampling Importance Resampling) algorithm showed a difference of -7.7 to 137.8%. This study shows that the resampling methods can do the frequency analysis of the snowfall depth that has insufficient observed samples, which can be applied to interpretation of other natural disasters such as summer typhoons with seasonal characteristics.

Corrosion Stability of Iron Artifacts after Treating with Water Treatment (수처리제를 사용한 철제유물의 부식 안정성 연구)

  • Jeong, Ji Hae
    • Journal of Conservation Science
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.381-390
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    • 2017
  • Desalination is the main focus of the stabilization of iron artifacts. However, drawbacks such as re-corrosion are noted due to the uncertainty in the elimination of the corrosive factors and artifacts. Several studies have been carried out on the effects of corrosion inhibitors to overcome these shortcomings. In this study, the effects of type 3 water treatment on corrosion inhibitors were investigated. Surfaces of samples that contained film corrosion inhibitors on their surfaces were analyzed. The results revealed that the surface rust was removed from the sample of type 1 No. 2 that was mainly composed of phosphate. The average weight reduction rates of re-corrosion samples were 0.58, 0.03, and 0.07% for type 1 No. 2, type 2 No. 2, and type 3 No. 2 respectively. The changes in the $Cl^-$ ion, a corrosive agent were found to be 28.60, -4.08, and -1.94 ppm for type 1 No. 2, type 2 No. 2, and type 3 No. 2 respectively. The water-treated films were analyzed by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). It was found that type 2 No. 2 had less Fe the basis metal, than that in type 3 No. 2 indicating much better film. Moreover, Si content was higher in type 2 No. 2, based on the silicate content, than in type 3 No. 2. They are speculated to be the reason or the formation of a better film. Type 1 No. 2, which is mainly composed of phosphate, would be inappropriate as a metal artifact conservation treatment. It was determined that type 2 No. 2 and type 3 No. 2 water treatments, which are mainly composed of silicate, provided excellent corrosion inhibiting effects. Corrosion inhibitors could be used as emergency treatment agents during the excavation of iron artifacts.

Introduction and Application of 3D Terrestrial Laser Scanning for Estimating Physical Structurers of Vegetation in the Channel (하도 내 식생의 물리적 구조를 산정하기 위한 3차원 지상 레이저 스캐닝의 도입 및 활용)

  • Jang, Eun-kyung;Ahn, Myeonghui;Ji, Un
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2020
  • Recently, a method that applies laser scanning (LS) that acquires vegetation information such as the vegetation habitat area and the size of vegetation in a point cloud format has been proposed. When LS is used to investigate the physical shape of vegetation, it has the advantage of more accurate and rapid information acquisition. However, to examine uncertainties that may arise during measurement or post-processing, the process of adjusting the data by the actual data is necessary. Therefore, in this study, the physical structure of stems, branches, and leaves of woody vegetation in an artificially formed river channel was manually investigated. The obtained results then compared with the information acquired using the three-dimensional terrestrial laser scanning (3D TLS) method, which repeatedly scanned the target vegetation in various directions to obtain relevant information with improved precision. The analysis demonstrated a negligible difference between the measurements for the diameters of vegetation and the length of stems; however, in the case of branch length measurement, a relatively more significant difference was observed. It is because the implementation of point cloud information limits the precise differentiation between branches and leaves in the canopy area.

Evaluation of Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture of SWAT Simulation for Mixed Forest in the Seolmacheon Catchment (설마천유역 혼효림에서 실측된 증발산과 토양수분을 이용한 SWAT모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Lee, Ji-Wan;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Park, Geun-Ae;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.289-297
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    • 2010
  • Common practice of Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model validation is to use a single variable (i.e., streamlfow) to calibrate SWAT model due to the paucity of actual hydrological measurement data in Korea. This approach, however, often causes errors in the simulated results because of numerous sources of uncertainty and complexity of SWAT model. We employed multi-variables (i.e., streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture), which were measured at mixed forest in Seolmacheon catchment ($8.54\;km^2$), in order to assess the performance and reduce the uncertainties of SWAT model output. Meteorological and surface topographical data of the catchment were obtained as basic input variables and SWAT model was calibrated using daily data of streamflow (Jan. - Dec.), evapotranspiration (Sep. - Dec.), and soil moisture (Jun. - Dec.) collected in 2007. The model performance was assessed by comparing its results with the observation (i.e., streamflow of 2003 to 2008 and evapotranspiration and soil moisture of 2008). When the multi-variable measurements were used to calibrate the SWAT model, the model results showed better agreement with the measurements compared to those using a single variable measurement by showing increases in coefficient of determination ($R^2$) from 0.72 to 0.76 for streamflow, from 0.49 to 0.59 for soil moisture, and from 0.52 to 0.59 for evapotranspiration. The findings highlight the importance of reliable and accurate collective observation data for improving performance of SWAT model and promote its facilitation for estimating more realistic hydrological cycles at catchment scale.