• Title/Summary/Keyword: 불확실도 분석

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A study on uncertainty by passage of time of stereotactic body radiation therapy for spine metastasis cancer (척추 전이암 환자의 정위적방사선치료 시 시간 경과에 따른 불확실성에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yong Wan;Kim, Joo Ho;Ahn, Seung Kwon;Lee, Sang Kyoo;Cho, Jeong Hee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2015
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to determine the proper treatment time of stereotactic body radiation therapy for spine metastasis cancer by using the image guidance system of CyberKnife(Accuray Incorporated, USA) which is able to correct movements of patients during the treatment. Materials and Methods : Fifty seven spine metastasis cancer patients who have stereotactic body radiation therapy of CyberKnife participate, 8 of them with cervical spine cancer, 26 of them with thoracic spine cancer, and 23 of them with lumbar spine cancer. X-ray images acquired during the treatment were classified by treatment site. From the starting point of treatment, motion tendency of patients is analyzed in each section which is divided into every 5 minutes. Results : In case of cervical spine, there is sudden increase of variation in 15 minutes after the treatment starts in rotational direction. In case of thoracic spine, there is no significantly variable section. However, variation increases gradually with the passage of time so that it is assumed that noticeable value comes up in approximately 40 minutes. In case of lumbar spine, sharp increase of variation is seen in 20 minutes in translational and rotational direction. Conclusion : Without having corrections during the treatment, proper treatment time is considered as less than 15 minutes for cervical spine, 40 minutes for thoracic spine, and 20 minutes for lumbar spine. If treatment time is longer than these duration, additional patient alignments are required or PTV margin should be enlarged.

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Evaluating the Economic Value of 3D Broadcasting Services based on the Potential Market Demand (3D 방송 서비스의 소비자 수용도에 근거한 경제적 가치평가)

  • Kwon Jung-A;Byun Sang-Kyu;Jahng Jae-Houk
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.131-148
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    • 2006
  • With the rapid penetration of digital technology In recent years, there are growing expectations that many new services will soon become available. One of the new services is 3Dimension(3D) services, because our concern is concentrated on the quality of information that exceeds the digitalization of information. A stereoscopic technique for generating 3D images is contributed to raise the quality of Information and Communication Technology(ICT) service and is extensively applied to various fields. So 3D services, based on that technique, are expected to create a new market for ICT industry and provide significant benefits to consumers. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the consumer preference and evaluate the economic value of the 3D broadcasting service, so it provides propriety of the 3D technology development for market planners and product developers who need to assess the market potential of a product that is not yet available for actual test marketing. And it is useful for decision-makers in considering the provision of 3D services. In this paper, the gang survey was conducted to understand consumer preference of 3D services. And it attempts to apply the contingent valuation method(CVM) to measuring the willingness to Pay(WTP) for the 3D broadcasting service and analyzing the determinants of the WTP.

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A Strategic Framework for Attracting R&D Centers of Foreign Companies and Its Application in the IT Industry (외국기업 R&D 센터의 국내 유치를 위한 전략 모형 개발과 정보통신분야에 대한 적용)

  • Yoo, Jae-Hong;Om, Ki-Yong;Kim, Byung-Keun;Kim, Kwan-Young;Lee, Jung-Mann
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.255-283
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    • 2007
  • As of April 2006, Korea had successfully invited twelve global IT R&D centers to help implement the u-IT839 strategy, but there have also been some worries about their research and collaboration performance in Korea. Although it is too early to judge the invitation outcome only after two years or less of their working, the Korean government is being advised to employ a more customized invitation strategy. In this paper, an analytic framework for the attraction of global R&D centers is developed based on the attractiveness-competitiveness matrix, and is applied empirically to the IT industry. Fourteen major IT technology categories and their sub-technological areas are classified into four strategic groups (priority group, wish group, consideration group, and hold group) along the framework via expert surveys and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique. This study is expected to help the government to implement the 'select and focus' strategy in inviting global R&D centers and creating synergy effects between them by providing basic data on global R&D partnership priorities. The implications and limitations of the research and future research directions are discussed at the final section.

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A Massively Parallel Algorithm for Fuzzy Vector Quantization (퍼지 벡터 양자화를 위한 대규모 병렬 알고리즘)

  • Huynh, Luong Van;Kim, Cheol-Hong;Kim, Jong-Myon
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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    • v.16A no.6
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    • pp.411-418
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    • 2009
  • Vector quantization algorithm based on fuzzy clustering has been widely used in the field of data compression since the use of fuzzy clustering analysis in the early stages of a vector quantization process can make this process less sensitive to its initialization. However, the process of fuzzy clustering is computationally very intensive because of its complex framework for the quantitative formulation of the uncertainty involved in the training vector space. To overcome the computational burden of the process, this paper introduces an array architecture for the implementation of fuzzy vector quantization (FVQ). The arrayarchitecture, which consists of 4,096 processing elements (PEs), provides a computationally efficient solution by employing an effective vector assignment strategy during the clustering process. Experimental results indicatethat the proposed parallel implementation providessignificantly greater performance and efficiency than appropriately scaled alternative array systems. In addition, the proposed parallel implementation provides 1000x greater performance and 100x higher energy efficiency than other implementations using today's ARMand TI DSP processors in the same 130nm technology. These results demonstrate that the proposed parallel implementation shows the potential for improved performance and energy efficiency.

Determination of drought events considering the possibility of relieving drought and estimation of design drought severity (가뭄해갈 가능성을 고려한 가뭄사상의 결정 및 확률 가뭄심도 산정)

  • Yoo, Ji Young;Yu, Ji Soo;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.275-282
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to propose a new method to determine the drought event and the design drought severity. In order to define a drought event from precipitation data, theory of run was applied with the cumulative rainfall deficit. When we have a large amount of rainfall over the threshold level, in this study, we compare with the previous cumulative rainfall deficit to determine whether the drought is relieved or not. The recurrence characteristics of the drought severity on the specific duration was analyzed by the conditional bivariate copula function and confidence intervals were estimated to quantify uncertainties. The methodology was applied to Seoul station with the historical dataset (1909~2015). It was observed that the past droughts considered as extreme hydrological events had from 10 to 50 years of return period. On the other hand, the current on-going drought event started from 2013 showed the significantly higher return period. It is expected that the result of this study may be utilized as the reliable criteria based on the concept of return period for the drought contingency plan.

Flow Calibration and Validation of Daechung Lake Watershed, Korea Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 대청호 유역 장기 유출 유량 보정 및 검증)

  • Lee, Eun-Hyoung;Seo, Dong-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.9
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    • pp.711-720
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    • 2011
  • SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was calibrated for the flow rate of the Deachung lake with a large area of 3108.29 $km^2$. Application of SWAT model requires significant number of input data and is prone to result in uncertainties due to errors in input data, model structure and model parameters. The SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2) program and GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) program in SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program) are used to select the best parameters for SWAT model. Optimal combination of parameter values was determined through 2,000 iterative SWAT model runs. The Nash-Sutcliffe values and $R^2$ values were 0.87 and 0.89 respectively indicating both methods show good agreements with observed data successfully. RMSE and MSE values also showed similar results for both programs. It seems the SWAT-CUP has a great practical appeal for parameter optimization especially for large basin area and it also can be used for less experienced SWAT model users.

A Study of a Model for Calculating Passing Sight Distance (추월시거 산정 모형에 관한 연구)

  • 김영호;손봉수;전경수
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.75-92
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    • 1997
  • 추월가능성을 판단하기 위해서 앞을 바라볼 수 있어야 하는 거리를 추월시거라 한다. 적절한 추원시거의 확보는 2차선 도로의 효율성과 운전자의 안전성 제고 및 도로설계시 매우 중요하다. 이러한 목적을 위하여 추월시거를 산정할 수 있는 여러 모형이 개발되었으나, 실제 교통상황을 반영하기에 많은 문제점을 안고 있음이 지적되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 기존 모형들의 이론적 배경을 고찰하고, 각 모형의 단점과 한계를 파악하여, 운전자의 실제 추월형태를 고려한 새로운 추월시거산정모형을 개발하는데 주안점을 두고 있다. 본 논문에서 개발한 PASS모형은 현재 미국에서 도로설계시 기준으로 사용되고 있는 AASHTO모형을 보완하여 구축하였다. 기존의 모형들은 서로 다른 조건을 가정하여 개발되었기 때문에 각 모형들의 추월시거 산정값을 비교분석하는데 어려움이 있다. 하지만 PASS모형은 운전자의 반응시간, 차량의 길이, 차량의 가속능력 등 실제 추월시거 산정시 반드시 고려해야 할 중요한 요소들을 특성치로 반영할 수 있게 함으로써 다양한 추월 상황과 현실적인 교통상황을 폭넓게 수용할 수 있는 장점을 갖고 있다. 본 논문에서는 새로 개발한 P SS모형을 이용하여 얻은 결과와 기존의 AASHTO모형, MUTCD모형, Glennon모형을 통해 얻은 결과를 비교하였으며, PASS모형에 우리나라 현실에 적합한 특성치를 적용하여 2차로 도로의 추월시거를 산정하였다. 이 결과 현재 우리나라 도로용량편람에서 제시하고 있는 추월기능구간 기준인 450m가 설계속도가 낮은 일반국도에는 타당함을 확인할수 있었다. 그러나, 설계속도가 높은 화물타의 운행빈도가 높은 고속국도의 경우, 재검토가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.기존의 광유계 윤활제에 비하여 대단히 고가하는 문제점을 갖고 있다. 그러나 윤활 마찰면의 다양화와 가혹한 사용조건은 자성유체 윤활제의 연구개발 필요성을 크게 증대시키고 있다.xed Effects Model)을 결정하고, 각각에 해당하는 통계모형을 구축하였다. 이 결과 (1) 업종 및 기업규모별로 그룹간에 유의한 특성이 발견되었으며, (2) R&D 및 광고투자는 기업의 시장성과를 설명하는 중요한 변수이나, (3) R&D 투자의 경우는 광고에 비해 불확실성이 존재하는 것으로 나타났고, (4) 수리모형에서 도출된 한계원리가 통계모형에서도 유효한 것으로 드러났다.등을 토대로 한 10대 산업을 육성하기 위하여 과학기술부는 기술수요조사를 바탕으로 49개 주요기술을 도출하여, 과학기술 일류 국가 실현, 국민소득 2만불 달성이라는 국가적 슬로건을 내걸고 “차세대 성장동력” 창출을 위한 범정부차원의 기획과 연구비의 집중투자를 추진하고 있다.달성하기 위해서는 종합류류 전산망의 시급한 구축과 함께 화물차의 적재율을 높이고 공차율을 낮출 수 있는 운송체계의 수립이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. 그라나 이러한 화물전용차선의 효과는 단기적인 치유책일 수밖에 없기 때문에 물류유통 시설의 확충을 위한 사회간접자본의 구축을 서둘러 시행하여야 할 것이다.으로 처리한 Machine oil, Phenthoate EC 및 Trichlorfon WP는 비교적 약효가 낮았다.>$^{\circ}$E/$\leq$30$^{\circ}$NW 단열군이 연구지역 내에서 지하수 유동성이 가장 높은 단열군으로 추정된다. 이러한 사실은 3개 시추공을 대상으로 실시한 시추공 내 물리검층과

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Assessing the skills of CMIP5 GCMs in reproducing spatial climatology of precipitation over the coastal area in East Asia (CMIP5 GCM의 동아시아 해안지역에 대한 공간적 강우특성 재현성 평가)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Cho, Jeapil;Yoon, Kwang Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.8
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    • pp.629-642
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    • 2018
  • Future variability of the spatial patterns of rainfall events is the point of water-related risks and impacts of climate change. Recent related researches are mostly conducted based on the outcomes from General Circulation Models (GCMs), especially Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs which are the most advanced version of climate modeling system. GCM data have been widely used for various studies as the data utility keep getting improved. Meanwhile the model performances especially for raw GCM outputs are rarely evaluated prior to the applications although the process would essential for reasonable use of model forecasts. This study attempt to quantitatively evaluate the skills of 29 CMIP5 GCMs in reproducing spatial climatologies of precipitation in East Asia. We used 3 different gridded observational data as the references available over the study area and calculated correlation and errors of spatial patterns simulated by GCMs. As a result, the study presented diversity of the GCM evaluation in the performance, rank, or accuracy by different configurations, such as target area, evaluation method, and observation data. Yet, we found that Hadley-centre affiliated models comparatively performs better for the meso-scale area in East Asia and MPI_ESM_MR and CMCC family showed better performance specifically for the korean peninsula. We expect that the results and thoughts of this study would be considered in screening suitable GCMs for specific area, and finally contribute to extensive utilization of the results from climate change related researches.

A Methodology of Seismic Damage Assessment Using Capacity Spectrum Method (능력 스펙트럼법을 이용한 건물 지진 손실 평가 방법)

  • Byeon, Ji-Seok
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.9 no.3 s.43
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2005
  • This paper describes a new objective methodology of seismic building damage assessment which is called Advanced Component Method(ACM). ACM is a major attempt to replace the conventional loss estimation procedure, which is based on subjective measures and the opinions of experts, with one that objectively measures both earthquake intensity and the response ol buildings. First, response of typical buildings is obtained analytically by nonlinear seismic static analysis, push-over analyses. The spectral displacement Is used as a measure of earthquake intensity in order to use Capacity Spectrum Method and the damage functions for each building component, both structural and non-structural, are developed as a function of component deformation. Examples of components Include columns, beams, floors, partitions, glazing, etc. A repair/replacement cost model is developed that maps the physical damage to monetary damage for each component. Finally, building response, component damage functions, and cost model were combined probabilistically, using Wonte Carlo simulation techniques, to develop the final damage functions for each building type. Uncertainties in building response resulting from variability in material properties and load assumptions were incorporated in the Latin Hypercube sampling technique. The paper also presents and compares ACM and conventional building loss estimation based on historical damage data and reported loss data.

An Analysis of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard in the Korean Peninsula - Probabilistic Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) (한반도의 확률론적 지진위험도 분석 - 확률론적 최대지반가속도(PGA))

  • Kyung, Jai-Bok;Kim, Min-Ju;Lee, Sang-Jun;Kim, Jun-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of the study was to create a probabilistic seismic hazard map using the input data that reflected the seismo-tectonic characteristics of the Korean Peninsula by applying USGS program (Harmsen (2008). The program was partly modified for the purpose of this study. The uncertainty of input parameters given by specialists was reflected in calculating the seismic hazard values by logic tree method. The general pattern of PGA was quite sensitive and similar to the shape of areal source. The probabilistic seismic hazard map showed the contour distribution of peak acceleration (%g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The result showed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the northern peninsula were almost half values of the southern peninsula except Hwanghae province. The general trend of the hazard map extended in the direction of NW-SE from Whanghae province to south-eastern regions of the peninsula. The values in northern part of Kangwon province were relatively lower than other areas in the southern peninsula. The maps produced through this study are considered valuable in regulating the seismic safety of the major facilities in the Korean Peninsula.