• Title/Summary/Keyword: 변동시점

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Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: Optimal Allocation of Storage Resource to Maximize the Efficiency of Power Supply (Demand Shifting or Ancillary Service?: 효율적 재생발전 수용을 위한 에너지저장장치 최적 자원 분배 연구)

  • Wooyoung Jeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.113-133
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    • 2024
  • Variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind power is the main sources of achieving carbon net zero, but it undermines the stability of power supply due to high variability and uncertainty. Energy storage system (ESS) can not only reduce the curtailment of VRE by load shifting but also contribute to stable power system operation by providing ancillary services. This study analyzes how the allocation of ESS resources between load shifting and ancillary service can contribute to maximizing the efficiency of power supply in a situation where the problems caused by VRE are becoming more and more serious. A stochastic power system optimization model that can realistically simulate the variability and uncertainty of VRE was applied. The analysis time point was set to 2023 and 2036, and the optimal resource allocation strategy and benefits of ESS by varying VRE penetration levels were analyzed. The analysis results can be largely summarized into the following three. First, ESS provides excellent functions for both load shifting and ancillary service, and it was confirmed that the higher the reserve price, the more limited the load shifting and focused on providing reserve. Second, the curtailment of VRE can be a effective substitute for the required reserve, and the higher the reserve price level, the higher the curtailment of VRE and the lower the required amount of reserve. Third, if a reasonable reserve offer price reflecting the opportunity cost is applied, ESS can secure economic feasibility in the near future, and the higher the proportion of VRE, the greater the economic feasibility of ESS. This study suggests that cost-effective low-carbon transition in the power system is possible when the price signal is correctly designed so that power supply resources can be efficiently utilized.

The Informativeness of Cash Flows and Earnings (현금흐름과 이익의 정보성)

  • Pyo, Young-In
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.11
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    • pp.241-253
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    • 1998
  • One form of the anomalies of stock price changes as reaction to earnings information is believed to be caused by the so-called earnings fixation, which is the overreaction of stock prices to earnings. According to the Sloan (1996) study, stock price changes are positively associated with earnings at the time of earnings releases, but the association becomes negative after that, as the early overreaction is corrected. However, the problem in his study is to use cash flows computed by adjusting earnings with appropriate income statement and balance sheet items. As Bahnson et al. (1996) show, these cash flows substantially deviate from SFAS No. 95 cash flows and the sample used in this study is found to be subject to this substantial measurement error. Therefore, the result of Sloan might be driven by this error and the reexamination of earnings fixation is warranted. The results are generally consistent with those in Sloan. First, earnings is positively associated with stock price changes at the time of earnings releases, but the association becomes negative after that. Second, cash flows show a weak association with stock price changes at the time of earnings releases, but the association become stronger thereafter. Third, when seperated from cash flows, accruals have an incremental explanation about stock price changes beyond that of cash flows, accruals have a negative association later on. This finding is consistent with stock price overreaction to accruals, even when more cleaner cash flow data are used.

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An Analysis of the Dynamics between Media Coverage and Stock Market on Digital New Deal Policy: Focusing on Companies Related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (디지털 뉴딜 정책에 대한 언론 보도량과 주식 시장의 동태적 관계 분석: 4차산업혁명 관련 기업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2021
  • In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

A Study on Control of Sealing Robot for Cracks of Concrete Surface (콘크리트 표면 균열 실링을 위한 로봇의 제어 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Cheol-Joo;Lim, Kye-Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.481-491
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    • 2015
  • Since the crack in the surface of the concrete acts as the main reason influencing the life span of the structure, regular inspections and maintenance are required. The sealing required for maintenance of the concrete surface is a method of repairing the crack in the surface in the beginning, and is effective in preventing additional cracks and expansion that occurs with time. However, sealing on large sized structures such as tall buildings or bottom parts of bridges are difficult to ensure safety of the workers due to inadequate working environments. Due to this reason, the importance of the need for sealing automation for the maintenance of large sized concrete structures is emerging. This study proposes two control methods to apply robot systems to the sealing of cracks on the bottom parts of concrete bridges. First is the method of automatically tracking the trajectory of cracks. The robot gets the trajectory of the cracks using video information obtained from cameras. Comparing the previous several points and new point, the next point can be estimated. Thus, the trajectory of the crack can be tracked automatically. The other method is sealing by maintaining steady force to the contacting surface. The concrete surface exposed to an external environment for a long time gets an irregular roughness. If robots are able to carry out sealing while maintaining a steady contact force on these rough surfaces, complete equal sealing can be maintained. In order to maintain this equal force, a force control method using impedance is proposed. This paper introduces two developed control methods to apply to sealing robots, and conducts a Lab Test and Field Test after applying to a robot. Based on the test results, opinions on the possibilities of field application of the robot applied with the control methods are presented.

Development of Urban Flood Forecasting Model using Statistical Method (통계학적 기법을 이용한 도시홍수 예.경보모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Beum-Hee;Lim, Jong-Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.805-809
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    • 2007
  • 최근 도시의 발달은 하상공간에 대한 이용도를 높이는 방향으로 개발이 진행되어가는 추세이며, 하상도로 및 하상주차장의 이용은 이제 도시 내에서 이용 가능한 마지막 여유 공간으로 인식될 정도로 그 의존도가 높아져가고 있다. 그러나 하상공간의 활용도가 높아져갈수록 도시홍수의 발생으로 인한 대피문제가 발생하게 되고 돌발홍수로 인하여 하상도로의 차단 혹은 하상 주차장에 주차된 차량의 소거가 늦어지는 경우 고스란히 피해를 보게 되는 등 그 부작용도 계속 증가되고 있다. 도시홍수의 특성을 살펴보면 국지성 돌발 강우에 의한 유량의 급격한 증가와 짧은 유하시간, 작은 유역면적 등에 의하여 주요 예보지점까지의 도달시간이 매우 짧아 수문학적 홍수예측 모형을 이용하여 홍수예측 업무를 수행하는데 선행시간을 충분히 확보할 수 없다는 단점을 지니고 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존의 하천시스템에 대한 설계 등을 목적으로 하여 모형의 적용을 통한 시뮬레이션 기법을 적용하고 이를 통하여 홍수 예경보를 발령하기에는 선행시간의 확보(대피시간의 확보)라는 측면에서 상당한 어려움을 지닐 수 있으므로 시시각각으로 측정되는 실시간 수위측정 자료 및 실시간 강우자료를 이용하여 모형의 수행과정을 생략하고 하천의 수위변동을 직접 예측하고 대피할 수 있는 시나리오 기반의 수문모형을 개발하였다. SPSS를 사용한 통계학적 모형을 대전광역시 3대 하천에 대하여 적용한 결과 예측자료가 실측자료를 고수위 및 저수위 부근에서 정확히 모의하지 못하는 경향이 나타났으나 경계 및 위험수위를 설정하고 이를 넘어가는 시점에 대한 예측을 하는 홍수경보 시점 예측에는 효율적인 적용성을 나타내었다.씬 간편하면서도 정확도가 높아서, 환경방사성 스트론튬의 정량분석에 적절히 사용될 수 있다.e form of Jones matrix, which allows a new interpretation in the conversion efficiency of the thin-film optical waveguides.있다는 장점이 있었다. 따라서 소아에서 복막투석도관 수술 시 복강경적 방법을 이용하는 것이 효율적인 복막 투석을 위해 유용하다고 생각된다.상부 방광천자에 비해 민감도 59.5%(25/42), 특이도 86.6%(13/15)였고 위양성률 13.3%(2/15), 위음성률 40.5%(17/42) 로 정확도가 낮았다. 결론 : 소변을 가리지 못하는 영유아에서 요로 감염을 진단하기 위해서는 도뇨관 채뇨에 비해 초음파 감시하 치골상부 방광천자가 정확하고 안전한 채뇨법으로 권장되어야 한다고 생각한다.應裝置) 및 운용(運用)에 별다른 어려움이 없고, 내열성(耐熱性)이 강(强)하므로 쉬운 조건하(條件下)에서 경제적(經濟的)으로 공업적(工業的) 이용(利用)에 유리(有利)하다고 판단(判斷)되어진다.reatinine은 함량이 적었다. 관능검사결과(官能檢査結果) 자가소화(自家消化)시킨 크릴간장은 효소(酵素)처리한 것이나 재래식 콩간장에 비하여 품질 면에서 손색이 없고 저장성(貯藏性)이 좋은 크릴간장을 제조(製造)할 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.에 착안하여 침전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin의 작용(作用)에 의(依)한 것이며,

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Economic Impact Analysis on High-yield Groundwater Development R&D Project in Jeju (제주도 청정 대용량 지하수개발 연구사업의 경제적 효과분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young;Kim, Seong-Yong
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.42 no.2
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2009
  • For economic impact analysis on a R&D project of high-yield groundwater development in Jeju conducted by KIGAM from 2004 to 2007, benefit/cost ratio(BCR), net present value(NPV), and internal rate of return(IRR) were calculated by contingent valuation method(CVM), production function analysis, domestic water market analysis and technology factor analysis. Measurable direct impact parameters among the major outputs of this R&D project consisted the estimation 4 high-yield and high mineral groundwater reserve in Jeju. Annual use of the reserve by piped water and bottled water was estimated as 12.23 million ton and its monetary value was calculated as 293.4 million dollar in 2006 year value applied of 5.5% discount rate. Economic impact of this R&D project in NPV of year 2006, with applying a discount rate of 5.5%, was identified and estimated as 13.66 million dollar in NPV, 4.05 points in BCR, and 22.74% in IRR, respectively. Additional early launch benefit was 5.58 million dollar. Even increased of the 1% discount rate, NPV of this R&D project was also positive as 12.18 million dollar and BCR was 3.71.

A Study on the Development of the Cash-Flow Forecasting Model in Apartment Business factoring tn Housing Payment Collection Pattern and Payment Condition for Construction Expences (분양대금 납부패턴과 공사대금 지급방식 변화를 고려한 공동주택사업의 현금흐름 예측모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Soon-Young;Kim Kyoon-Tai;Han Choong-Hee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.353-358
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    • 2001
  • Since the financial crisis broke out, liquidity has become the critical issue in housing construction industry. In order to secure liquidity, it is prerequisite to precisely forecast cash flow. However, construction companies have failed to come up with a systematic process to manage and forecast cash flow. Until now, companies have solely relied on the prediction of profits and losses, which is carried out as they review business feasibility. To obtain more accurate cash flow forecast model, practical pattern of payments should be taken into account. In this theory, basic model that analyzes practical housing payment collection pattern resulting from prepayments and arrears is described. This model is to complement conventional cash flow forecast scheme in the phase of business feasibility review. Analysis result on final losses in cash that occur as a result of prepayment and arrears is considered in this model. Additionally, in the estimation of construction cost in the phase of business feasibility review, real construction prices instead of official prices are applied to enhance accuracy of cash outflow forecast. The proportion of payment made by a bill and changes in payment date caused by rescheduling of a bill are also factored in to estimate cash outflow. This model would contribute to achieving accurate cash flow forecast that better reflect real situation and to enhancing efficiency in capital management by giving a clear picture with regard to the demand and supply timing of capital.

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A Building of Investment Decision Model for Improving Profitabilty of Tramper Shipping Business (해운산업 수익성 제고 투자의사결정 모델구축에 관한 연구 - 부정기선 영업을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Weon-Jae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.297-311
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    • 2011
  • This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.

Analysis of Short-Term Impact of Tax Policy on Housing Purchase Price in Small and Medium-sized Cities in Korea (세금정책이 중소도시의 공동주택 매매가격에 미치는 단기 영향분석)

  • Oh, Kwon-Young;Jeong, Jin-Won;Lee, Donghoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2022
  • With apartment purchase prices rising, small and medium-sized cities have been highlighted as areas in which real estate speculation is overheated, and thus designated as target districts for adjustment. In addition, tax policy is constantly being adjusted in an attempt to stabilize real estate prices. The purpose of this study is to analyze the basic effect of tax policy on the purchase price of apartments in small and medium-sized cities. This study selected apartments in the Daejeon area that were constructed between 1990 and 2015. In addition, tax policy was divided into regulatory policy and easing policy based on tax increase and tax cut. This study analyzes the short-term difference of one year before and after the change in the purchase price of apartment houses. In addition, this study set the time when real estate policy was implemented and the actual transaction price of apartments in Daejeon as the analysis targets, and analyzed the correlation between tax policy and apartment sales prices through the NPV technique and T-test results. Through the study, it was found that most tax policies changed apartment purchase prices in the short term.