• Title/Summary/Keyword: 베이지안확률

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A Study on Bayesian Approach of Software Stochastic Reliability Superposition Model using General Order Statistics (일반 순서 통계량을 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰확률 중첩모형에 관한 베이지안 접근에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Byeong-Su;Kim, Hui-Cheol;Baek, Su-Gi;Jeong, Gwan-Hui;Yun, Ju-Yong
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.6 no.8
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    • pp.2060-2071
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    • 1999
  • The complicate software failure system is defined to the superposition of the points of failure from several component point process. Because the likelihood function is difficulty in computing, we consider Gibbs sampler using iteration sampling based method. For each observed failure epoch, we applied to latent variables that indicates with component of the superposition mode. For model selection, we explored the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors for the comparison simple pattern with superposition model. A numerical example with NHPP simulated data set applies the thinning method proposed by Lewis and Shedler[25] is given, we consider Goel-Okumoto model and Weibull model with GOS, inference of parameter is studied. Using the posterior Bayesian criterion and the sum of relative errors, as we would expect, the superposition model is best on model under diffuse priors.

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Optimal Facial Emotion Feature Analysis Method based on ASM-LK Optical Flow (ASM-LK Optical Flow 기반 최적 얼굴정서 특징분석 기법)

  • Ko, Kwang-Eun;Park, Seung-Min;Park, Jun-Heong;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.512-517
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we propose an Active Shape Model (ASM) and Lucas-Kanade (LK) optical flow-based feature extraction and analysis method for analyzing the emotional features from facial images. Considering the facial emotion feature regions are described by Facial Action Coding System, we construct the feature-related shape models based on the combination of landmarks and extract the LK optical flow vectors at each landmarks based on the centre pixels of motion vector window. The facial emotion features are modelled by the combination of the optical flow vectors and the emotional states of facial image can be estimated by the probabilistic estimation technique, such as Bayesian classifier. Also, we extract the optimal emotional features that are considered the high correlation between feature points and emotional states by using common spatial pattern (CSP) analysis in order to improvise the operational efficiency and accuracy of emotional feature extraction process.

Active Vision from Image-Text Multimodal System Learning (능동 시각을 이용한 이미지-텍스트 다중 모달 체계 학습)

  • Kim, Jin-Hwa;Zhang, Byoung-Tak
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.43 no.7
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    • pp.795-800
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    • 2016
  • In image classification, recent CNNs compete with human performance. However, there are limitations in more general recognition. Herein we deal with indoor images that contain too much information to be directly processed and require information reduction before recognition. To reduce the amount of data processing, typically variational inference or variational Bayesian methods are suggested for object detection. However, these methods suffer from the difficulty of marginalizing over the given space. In this study, we propose an image-text integrated recognition system using active vision based on Spatial Transformer Networks. The system attempts to efficiently sample a partial region of a given image for a given language information. Our experimental results demonstrate a significant improvement over traditional approaches. We also discuss the results of qualitative analysis of sampled images, model characteristics, and its limitations.

A Flexible Line-Fitting ICM Approach for Takbon Image Restoration (유연한 선부합 ICM 방식에 의한 탁본영상복원)

  • Hwang, Jae-Ho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.13B no.5 s.108
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    • pp.525-532
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    • 2006
  • This paper proposes a new class of image restoration on the Ising modeled binary 'Takbon' image by the flexible line-fitting ICM(Iterated conditional modes) method. Basically 'Takbon' image need be divided into two extreme regions, information and background one due to its stroke combinations. The main idea is the line process, comparing with the conventional ICM approaches which were based on partially rectangular structured point process. For calculating geometrical mechanism, we have defined line-fitting functions at each current pixel array which form the set of linear lines with gradients and lengths. By applying the Bayes' decision to this set, the region of the current pixel is decided as one of the binary levels. In this case, their statistical reiteration for distinct tracking between intra and extra region offers a criterion to decide the attachment at each step. Finally simulations using the binary 'Takbon' image are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new algorithm

A development of nonstationary rainfall frequency analysis model based on mixture distribution (혼합분포 기반 비정상성 강우 빈도해석 기법 개발)

  • Choi, Hong-Geun;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Moon-Hyung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.895-904
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    • 2019
  • It has been well recognized that extreme rainfall process often features a nonstationary behavior, which may not be effectively modeled within a stationary frequency modeling framework. Moreover, extreme rainfall events are often described by a two (or more)-component mixture distribution which can be attributed to the distinct rainfall patterns associated with summer monsoons and tropical cyclones. In this perspective, this study explores a Mixture Distribution based Nonstationary Frequency (MDNF) model in a changing rainfall patterns within a Bayesian framework. Subsequently, the MDNF model can effectively account for the time-varying moments (e.g. location parameter) of the Gumbel distribution in a two (or more)-component mixture distribution. The performance of the MDNF model was evaluated by various statistical measures, compared with frequency model based on both stationary and nonstationary mixture distributions. A comparison of the results highlighted that the MDNF model substantially improved the overall performance, confirming the assumption that the extreme rainfall patterns might have a distinct nonstationarity.

A Non-stationary frequency analysis for annual daily maximum rainfalls(ADMRs) using mixed Gumbel distribution of bayesian approach (Bayesian 기법의 혼합 Gumbel 분포를 활용한 연최대일강우량에 대한 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Choi, Hong-Geun;Yoo, Min-Seok;Han, Young-Cheon;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.312-312
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    • 2018
  • 우리나라의 기후 지형적 특성에 따라 연강수량의 50% 이상이 여름철에 내리며 이러한 짧은 기간에 집중적으로 내리는 강수패턴 조건하에서 수공구조물 설계시 대부분 극치빈도분석을 활용한다. 우리나라의 경우 단일 Gumbel 분포를 활용한 극치빈도분석을 많이 이용한다. 하지만, 최근 이상기후로 인하여 전세계적으로 강수패턴의 특징이 급격히 변하고 있으며, 우리나라의 강수패턴 또한 바뀌어가고 있다. 연강수량의 대부분은 태풍과 장마로 인한 강수량으로 이루어져 있고, 일반적으로 두 개의 모집단으로 이루어진 형태를 보인다. 앞선 연구에서 두 개 이상의 첨두를 가지는 형태의 연최대강수량 자료에 대해 8개의 지속시간별(1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24hr)로 Bayesian 기법의 단일 Gumbel 분포형과 혼합 Gumbel분포형 기반의 극치빈도분석 결과를 비교하였고, 혼합 Gumbel 분포형이 이중첨두 부분의 거동을 효과적으로 모의하는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서는 이상기후로 인한 강수량의 특징의 급격한 변화에 일정한 패턴이 있음을 가정하고 이중첨두의 연 최대일강수량 자료에 대해 혼합 Gumbel 분포형 기반 비정상성 빈도분석을 실시하였다. 정상성 빈도분석과의 비교를 위해 확률분포의 매개변수 산정시 우도함수를 Bayesian 기법을 통해 산정하여 각 분포형의 Bayesian information criterion(BIC) 값을 비교하였다. 비정상성일 경우의 BIC 값이 정상성일 경우 보다 작게 산정되었고, 강수패턴이 경향성을 가지는 것으로 판단할 수 있었다. 비정상성 혼합 Gumbel 분포형 모델은 최근 급격한 강수패턴의 변화에 대한 대응책으로서 활용성이 높을 것으로 기대된다.

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A study on the Filtering of Spam E-mail using n-Gram indexing and Support Vector Machine (n-Gram 색인화와 Support Vector Machine을 사용한 스팸메일 필터링에 대한 연구)

  • 서정우;손태식;서정택;문종섭
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2004
  • Because of a rapid growth of internet environment, it is also fast increasing to exchange message using e-mail. But, despite the convenience of e-mail, it is rising a currently bi9 issue to waste their time and cost due to the spam mail in an individual or enterprise. Many kinds of solutions have been studied to solve harmful effects of spam mail. Such typical methods are as follows; pattern matching using the keyword with representative method and method using the probability like Naive Bayesian. In this paper, we propose a classification method of spam mails from normal mails using Support Vector Machine, which has excellent performance in pattern classification problems, to compensate for the problems of existing research. Especially, the proposed method practices efficiently a teaming procedure with a word dictionary including a generated index by the n-Gram. In the conclusion, we verified the proposed method through the accuracy comparison of spm mail separation between an existing research and proposed scheme.

Development of a Stochastic Snow Depth Prediction Model Using a Bayesian Deep Learning Method (베이지안 딥러닝 기법을 이용한 확률적 적설심 예측 모델 개발)

  • Jeong, Youngjoon;Lee, Sang-ik;Lee, Jonghyuk;Seo, Byunghun;Kim, Dongsu;Seo, Yejin;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.64 no.6
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2022
  • Heavy snow damage can be prevented in advance with an appropriate security system. To develop the security system, we developed a model that predicts snow depth after a few hours when the snow depth is observed, and utilized it to calculate a failure probability with various types of greenhouses and observed snow depth data. We compared the Markov chain model and Bayesian long short-term memory models with varying input data. Markov chain model showed the worst performance, and the models that used only past snow depth data outperformed the models that used other weather data with snow depth (temperature, humidity, wind speed). Also, the models that utilized 1-hour past data outperformed the models that utilized 3-hour data and 6-hour data. Finally, the Bayesian LSTM model that uses 1-hour snow depth data was selected to predict snow depth. We compared the selected model and the shifting method, which uses present data as future data without prediction, and the model outperformed the shifting method when predicting data after 11-24 hours.

A Study on the Effectiveness of Virtual and Real Experience Type Safety Education at Construction Sites (건설현장에 접목한 가상체험·실물체험 안전교육의 효과성 연구)

  • Cho Choonhwan
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Construction Safety
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2024
  • Existing safety education delivered to construction workers has limitations in concentration and immersion, so delivery power and interest are low. In order to improve the unstable behavior of construction workers and prevent safety accidents through education, a paradigm shift to hands-on education is necessary. Experiential safety education aims to contribute to the prevention of safety accidents and induce safe behavior by construction workers to recognize risks faster, select safe working methods suitable for the working environment, and improve emergency response and proactive response. Experiential education facilities have a follow-up learning effect in case of danger. The experience facility, which consists of the same working environment as the actual construction site, is designed to experience falls, equipment contraction, fire, and electric shock. In order to achieve the results of safety education that has invested a lot of time, construction workers must have motivation to participate, and "experiential safety education" through playful, deviant, and aesthetic experiences reduces serious accidents.

Probabilistic Prediction of the Risk of Sexual Crimes Using Weight of Evidence (Weight of Evidence를 활용한 성폭력 범죄 위험의 확률적 예측)

  • KIM, Bo-Eun;KIM, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.72-85
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    • 2019
  • The goal of this study is to predict sexual violence crimes, which is an routine risk. The study used to the Weight of Evidence on sexual violence crimes that occurred in partly Cheongju-si for five years from 2011 to 2015. The results are as follows. First, application and analysis of the Weight of Evidence that considers the weight of evidence characteristics showed 8 out of total 26 evidences that are used for a sexual violence crimes risk prediction. The evidences were residential area, date of use permission for building, individual housing price, floor area ratio, number of basement floor, lot area, security light and recreational facility; which satisfied credibility in the process of calculating weight. Second, The weight calculated 8 evidences were combined to create the prediction map in the end. The map showed that 16.5% of sexual violence crimes probability occurs in 0.3㎢, which is 3.3% of the map. The area of probability of 34.5% is 1.8㎢, which is 19.0% of the map and the area of probability of 75.5% is 2.0㎢, which is 20.7% of the map. This study derived the probability of occurrence of sexual violence crime risk and environmental factors or conditions that could reduce it. Such results could be used as basic data for devising preemptive measures to minimize sexual violence, such as police activities to prevent crimes.