• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
• /
• 2011.07a
• /
• pp.598-599
• /
• 2011

Cap and Trade 제도 하에서 발전사업자는 탄소배출권 가격의 불확실성이라는 새로운 위험에 노출이 된다. 따라서 발전사업자가 전일 셀프스케쥴링을 실시함에 있어 전력 가격의 불확실성 뿐 아니라 탄소배출권 가격의 불확실성 또한 고려할 필요가 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 전력 가격과 탄소 배출권 가격의 불확실성을 모두 고려한 발전사업자의 전일 셀프스케쥴링 문제를 고려하였다. 탄소배출권 시장의 거래상당 부분이 발전사업자에 의해 이루어지므로 전력 가격과 탄소 배출권 가격의 상관관계를 고려하여 셀프스케쥴링 문제를 정식화 하였다. 셀프스케쥴링의 결과로 나온 발전사업자의 기대수익과 기대수익의 변동성은 발전사업자의 위험회피정도에 따라 달라짐을 확인할 수 있었다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.31 no.2
• /
• pp.261-290
• /
• 2022

Although market stabilization measures have been triggered in the K-ETS, carbon price is still under uncertainty. Considering Korea's 2030 enhanced reduction target announced in October 2021, it is crucial to have practical stabilization measures to appropriately deal with price uncertainty. This study examines the quantitative effects of a price collar, which is considered as a means of alleviating price uncertainty, on expected cumulative emissions and abatement costs. There are three main scenarios: carbon tax, emissions trading system, and emissions trading system with a price collar. Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to reflect uncertainty in emission. There are several results as follows: 1) In a price collar, domestic emission target is likely to be achieved with a lower expected abatement cost than other scenarios. In addition, there is a small amount of excess emissions in this research and it would be not critical(0.1% excess than target); 2) Prohibiting banking increases the expected abatement cost. This is because firms can not intertemporally reallocate allowances to match the firm's optimal emissions path; 3) With the adoption of a price collar, government's net revenue can be positive even if the government's purchase volume of emissions allowances is more than sales volume. This is because the government sells them at price ceiling and purchases them at price floor.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.607-627
• /
• 2015

As observed and experienced in EU ETS, allowance price volatility is one of major concerns in decision making process for $CO_2$ abatement investment. The problem of linearly non-separable profits functions could emerge when one power company holds several power plants with different technology specifications. Under this circumstance, conventional analytical solution for investment option is no longer available, thereby calling for the development of numerical analysis. This paper attempts to develop a Monte-Carlo least squares model to analyze investment options for power companies under emission trading scheme regulations. Stochastic allowance price is considered, and simulation is performed to verify model performance.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.829-852
• /
• 2010

The investment in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects is increasing rapidly as the first implementation period began in 2008. This paper examines on the optimal level of primary Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, subsidiary original projects investment cost and expected issues CER per year, using UNFCCC CDM Project Design Document (PDD) data. Real option model is developed to incorporate a case where the investment is irreversible and underlying asset price is uncertainty. This study employs Real option approach which allow the optimal level regard as economic feasibility of CER price has analyzed with NPV (Net Present Value) and Black-Scholes call option(Real option) value. Finally, CER supply curve and price elasticity of supply are estimated.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.29 no.2
• /
• pp.219-246
• /
• 2020

From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p^⁎) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (p^⁎_spot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.13-23
• /
• 2024

In this study, the optimal level of CER issuance price in the energy industry was estimated using a real options considering the uncertainty of emission price. As a result of the analysis, the break-even point for CDM projects in the energy industry registered by UNFCCC from December 2012 to the end of 2021 was 0.64-36.69 euros per ton of CO2 for each individual project. More closely, the emission permit price that reaches the break-even point when NPVw/o CER+ NPVCER ≥ 0 is estimated to be 12.10 euros on average, and the emission permit price that reaches the break-even point when NPVw/o CER + NPVCER ≥ option value is estimated to be 12.63 euros on average. Meanwhile, the option value using real options to reduce business uncertainty is about 19% at the 1-5 euro per ton level, about 11% at the 5-10 euro per ton level, and about 5% at the 10-15 euro per ton level. It was analyzed that there was an effect of increasing emissions prices due to uncertainty reduction. The results of this study may be useful to greenhouse gas reduction project entities, including investors, project operators, and companies with potential mandatory reductions.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.301-319
• /
• 2012

The primary purpose of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is to facilitate investment in renewable energy technology. Since emission trading program has similar purpose, it is conceivable to attempt to link RPS and emission trading program through interlinked markets. RPS in Korea with single REC and emission allowance markets has particular advantages for constructing linkages between two markets. This paper provides a real option model to examine investment effects of linkage of RPS to the trading program. Emission permit price and REC price are assumed to follow stochastic processes and renewable investment is irreversible. The result shows that linked market provides further incentive for renewable investment by raising managerial flexibility for power companies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.377-401
• /
• 2016

This study analyzes how much cost the power generation and energy sector in South Korea have to bear due to the introduction of emissions trading scheme during 2016 - 2017. To this end, the data on the seventh basic plan for long-term electricity supply and demand is applied to the electricity market simulation model called M-Core, and then the model forecasts carbon dioxide emissions to compare with the free emission allowances in the first national emissions permit allocation plan. The main results are as follows. Carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to be less in 2016 but more than the free emission allowances in 2017. When the price of the allowances is changed from \10,000/ton to \20,000/ton, the cost of purchasing the allowances is ranged from \70 billion to \140 billion. Under the assumption that CO2 cost is incorporated into the variable cost, a reversal of merit order between coal and LNG generation takes place when the price of the allowances exceeds \80,000/ton.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.31 no.4
• /
• pp.645-668
• /
• 2022

Hydrogen energy is emerging as an important means of carbon neutrality in the various sectors including power, transportation, storage, and industrial processes. Fuel cell power plants are the fastest spreading in the hydrogen ecosystem and are one of the key power sources among means of implementing carbon neutrality in 2050. However, high volatility in system marginal price (SMP) and renewable energy certificate (REC) prices, which affect the profits of fuel cell power plants, delay the investment timing and deployment. This study applied the real option methodology to analyze how the dual uncertainties in both SMP and REC prices affect the investment trigger price level in the irreversible investment decision of fuel cell power plants. The analysis is summarized into the following three. First, under the current Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), dual price uncertainties passed on to plant owners has significantly increased the investment trigger price relative to one under the deterministic price case. Second, reducing the volatility of REC price by half of the current level caused a significant drop in investment trigger prices and its investment trigger price is similar to one caused by offering one additional REC multiplier. Third, investment trigger price based on gray hydrogen and green hydrogen were analyzed along with the existing byproduct hydrogen-based fuel cells, and in the case of gray hydrogen, economic feasibility were narrowed significantly with green hydrogen when carbon costs were applied. The results of this study suggest that the current RPS system works as an obstacle to the deployment of fuel cell power plants, and policy that provides more stable revenue to plants is needed to build a more cost-effective and stable hydrogen ecosystem.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.157-185
• /
• 2014

The Kyoto Protocol has extended its life until 2020 by the decision at COP18 in Doha, Qatar in 2012. So has the Kyoto Mechanism of CDM, JI, and ETS. Nonetheless, the sustainability of CDM projects is jeopardized by the recent rule changes in the international emissions trade market such as EU ETS and the price decrease in emission credits. In particular, the domestic CDM projects reducing non-$CO_2$ GHG emissions are being directly affected. This study examines the trend of carbon credit price change in the international market. It also examines how the rule changes in the international emissions trade market have affected domestic non-$CO_2$ CDM projects through which mechanisms. The policy implications drawn from this study is two-fold: it suggests how the government can assist the project developers in utilizing GHG emission reduction technologies and the market in promoting investment environment before the domestic ETS enters into effect in 2015; apart from possible measures within ETS, an additional measures such as bilateral carbon offset system is suggested to help the private sector reduce uncertainty in investment and increase options to choose.