• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.255-263
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• 1995

Root uptakes of $^{54}Mn,\;^{60}Co,\;^{85}Sr\;and\;^{137}Cs$ by rice were studied through a greenhouse experiment in which the upper 20 cm of the culture box was filled with an acidic loamy-sandy soil and a mixed solution of the radionuclides was applied to the surface water on the soil 2 days before, and 5 different times after, transplanting. Percent uptakes of the radionuclides to rice tops varied $3.4{\sim}13.7%,\;0.03{\sim}0.1%,\;0.6{\sim}1.5%,\;0.02{\sim}0.15%$, respectively, with application time. Among radionuclides, soil-to-plant transfer factors decreased, on the whole, in the order of $^{54}Mn>^{85}Sr>^{60}Co{\geq}^{137}Cs$, and among plant parts, in the order of straw > chaff > hulled seed. Transfer factors $(m^2/kg-dry)$ in hulled seed were, depending on application time, $1.2{\times}10^3{\sim}5.0{{\times}10^3\;for\;^{54}Mn,\;1.6{\times}10^5{\sim}2.6{\times}10^4\;for\;^{60}Co,\;1.1{\times}10^4{\sim}7.6{\times}10^4\;for\;^{85}Sr\;and\;5.2{\times}10^5{\sim}7.0{\times}10^4\;for\;^{137}Cs$. The highest factors of all the radionuclides in straw came from the application at 67 days after transplanting while those of $^{54}Mn,\;^{60}Co\;and\;^{85}Sr$ in hulled seed appeared at later applications. The data from this studv can be referred to in assessing the radiological impact of an accidental contamination during the rice growth.