• Title/Summary/Keyword: 발생빈도값

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Numerical Experiments of Coastal Upwelling Occurred by Summer Winds in the East Sea of Korea (한국 동해 연안에서 하계 바람에 의해 발생하는 연안용승에 관한 수치실험)

  • Seo, Ho-San;Lim, Woo-Hyun;Kim, Dong-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.347-353
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    • 2017
  • In this study, numerical experiments were conducted to identify distribution of rising flow and flux in the East Sea of Korea, where the coastal upwelling occurs. Temperature and salinity data from CTD observations and NIFS during summer 2013 were applied to the model. Numerical experiments were carried out with different wind speed (3, 6 m/s and 9 m/s) and direction (southerly and southwesterly), which represent the most frequent in summer conditions. As a result of calculation, upwelling flow rate was found to be highest in Pohang between five coasts(Hupo, Youngduk, Pohang, Ulsan and Busan). Comparing with southerly wind conditions, the rising flow rate is about 1.5 times greater when southwesterly wind was applied. Horizontal diffusion of the upwelling area is expected to have a speed of 17~22 km/day when a 9 m/s southwesterly wind is applied. If this wind continues over one week, a cold pool will be generated by upwelling that may reach to the Ulleung area.

Series Dam Failure Simulation in Lawn Lake Dam Watershed (Lawn Lake Dam 유역의 연속댐 붕괴 모의)

  • Park, Se-Jin;Choi, Hyun-Gu;Kim, Pan-Gu;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.607-607
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    • 2012
  • 국내에서는 최근 지구온난화에 따른 전 지구적 이상홍수의 발생으로 댐 붕괴 우려가 증대되고 있고, 이에 따른 주민들의 불안감도 고조되고 있는 상황이다. 특히 최근 집중호우의 증가와 태풍의 영향으로 대규모 수공 구조물의 설계빈도를 초월하는 폭우를 동반하고 있다. 실례로 20세기 들어 전 세계적으로 약 200건 이상의 댐 붕괴 사고가 발생하여 댐 하류 지역에 막대한 인명 및 재산피해가 발생하였다. 국내의 경우 "연천댐", "장현, 동막저수지" 붕괴 등과 외국의 경우 이탈리아의 Vaiont 댐과 미국의 Teton 댐 등의 사례가 있다. 이처럼 댐은 설계홍수량 이하의 경우에는 비교적 안전하게 홍수를 예방할 수 있으나 이보다 큰 규모의 홍수가 발생할 경우 그 피해 또한 엄청나다. 따라서 댐 붕괴 등의 비상상황이 발생하였을 때 하류 지역의 생명과 재산 손실을 최소화하고 댐의 물리적, 지형적, 구조적 특성에 따른 비상상황을 예상하고 이에 효율적으로 대처하기 위해 비상대처계획(Emergency Action Plan, EAP)과 같은 대책을 수립하게 되었다. 이에 본 연구는 댐의 비상대처계획 수립시 중요한 사항 중 하나인 홍수류 해석을 실시하였다. 현재 국내에서 댐 붕괴 홍수류 해석은 주로 그 안전성과 정확성이 검증된 Fread(1984)의 1차원 모형인 DAMBRK 모형을 이용하여 댐 붕괴 홍수류 해석을 실시하고 있다. 이 DAMBRK 모형을 이용하여 실제 붕괴 사례인 1982년 미국 콜로라도에서 발생한 Lawn Lake 댐의 붕괴 홍수류 해석을 실시하였다. Lawn Lake 댐은 콜로라도 록키 마운틴 국립공원에 위치한 약 8m 높이의 필댐으로 댐 붕괴로 인하여 830,000 의 물이 유출되었으며, 3명이 사망하고 3,100만달러의 손해를 일으켰다. 다음과 같은 실제 붕괴 사례를 댐의 제원과 홍수량을 이용하여 DAMBRK 모의를 실시하였으며 모의한 결과와 실측치와의 비교를 해보았다. 본 연구에서 모의한 결과는 댐 최대 붕괴 유출량은 잘 나타내었지만, 지점별 최대 유량 및 홍수파 도달시간에 관련해서는 다소 차이를 보였다. 이는 조도계수의 변화에 따라 지점별 최대 유량과 홍수파 도달시간, 그리고 홍수위가 달라지는 것임을 확인하였고 실제로 Lawn Lake 댐이 붕괴되어 흘러들어가는 Roaring 강의 댐 붕괴 잔해나 하상 변화를 모르기 때문에 조도계수의 실측치는 모의값 보다 훨씬 클 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구를 통해 비상대처계획 수립시 홍수류 해석을 할 때 조도계수의 변화에 따라 모의 결과 및 범람범위가 달라질 수 있으니 조도계수의 채택에 있어 신중하고 정확한 판단이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

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Consideration of Time Lag of Sea Surface Temperature due to Extreme Cold Wave - West Sea, South Sea - (한파에 따른 표층수온의 지연시간 고찰 - 서해, 남해 -)

  • Kim, Ju-Yeon;Park, Myung-Hee;Lee, Joon-Soo;Ahn, Ji-Suk;Han, In-Seong;Kwon, Mi-Ok;Song, Ji-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.701-707
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we examined the sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT), and their time lag in response to an extreme cold wave in 2018 and a weak cold wave in 2019, cross-correlating these to the northern wind direction frequency. The data used in this study include SST observations of seven ocean buoys Real-time Information System for Aquaculture Environment provided by the National Institute of Fisheries Science and automatic weather station AT near them recorded every hour; null data was interpolated. A finite impulse response filter was used to identify the appropriate data period. In the extreme cold wave in 2018, the seven locations indicated low SST caused by moving cold air through the northern wind direction. A warm cold wave in 2019, the locations showed that the AT data was similar to the normal AT data, but the SST data did not change notably. During the extreme cold wave of 2018, data showed a high correlation coefficient of about 0.7 and a time lag of about 14 hours between AT and SST; during the weak cold wave of 2019, the correlation coefficient was 0.44-0.67 and time lag about 20 hours between AT and SST. This research will contribute to rapid response to such climate phenomena while minimizing aquaculture damage.

Performance Analysis of Frequent Pattern Mining with Multiple Minimum Supports (다중 최소 임계치 기반 빈발 패턴 마이닝의 성능분석)

  • Ryang, Heungmo;Yun, Unil
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2013
  • Data mining techniques are used to find important and meaningful information from huge databases, and pattern mining is one of the significant data mining techniques. Pattern mining is a method of discovering useful patterns from the huge databases. Frequent pattern mining which is one of the pattern mining extracts patterns having higher frequencies than a minimum support threshold from databases, and the patterns are called frequent patterns. Traditional frequent pattern mining is based on a single minimum support threshold for the whole database to perform mining frequent patterns. This single support model implicitly supposes that all of the items in the database have the same nature. In real world applications, however, each item in databases can have relative characteristics, and thus an appropriate pattern mining technique which reflects the characteristics is required. In the framework of frequent pattern mining, where the natures of items are not considered, it needs to set the single minimum support threshold to a too low value for mining patterns containing rare items. It leads to too many patterns including meaningless items though. In contrast, we cannot mine any pattern if a too high threshold is used. This dilemma is called the rare item problem. To solve this problem, the initial researches proposed approximate approaches which split data into several groups according to item frequencies or group related rare items. However, these methods cannot find all of the frequent patterns including rare frequent patterns due to being based on approximate techniques. Hence, pattern mining model with multiple minimum supports is proposed in order to solve the rare item problem. In the model, each item has a corresponding minimum support threshold, called MIS (Minimum Item Support), and it is calculated based on item frequencies in databases. The multiple minimum supports model finds all of the rare frequent patterns without generating meaningless patterns and losing significant patterns by applying the MIS. Meanwhile, candidate patterns are extracted during a process of mining frequent patterns, and the only single minimum support is compared with frequencies of the candidate patterns in the single minimum support model. Therefore, the characteristics of items consist of the candidate patterns are not reflected. In addition, the rare item problem occurs in the model. In order to address this issue in the multiple minimum supports model, the minimum MIS value among all of the values of items in a candidate pattern is used as a minimum support threshold with respect to the candidate pattern for considering its characteristics. For efficiently mining frequent patterns including rare frequent patterns by adopting the above concept, tree based algorithms of the multiple minimum supports model sort items in a tree according to MIS descending order in contrast to those of the single minimum support model, where the items are ordered in frequency descending order. In this paper, we study the characteristics of the frequent pattern mining based on multiple minimum supports and conduct performance evaluation with a general frequent pattern mining algorithm in terms of runtime, memory usage, and scalability. Experimental results show that the multiple minimum supports based algorithm outperforms the single minimum support based one and demands more memory usage for MIS information. Moreover, the compared algorithms have a good scalability in the results.

Analysis of Bone Mineral Density of Ankle Fracture Patients (족관절 골절 환자의 골밀도 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Hyung;Lee, Jae Hyung;Park, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.334-340
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study analyzed the bone mineral densities of the lumbar vertebrae and femurs of patients with ankle fractures to determine the correlation between ankle fractures and osteoporosis. Materials and Methods: From April 2002 to July 2014, one hundred consecutive ankle fracture patients with bone mineral density tests performed within post-traumatic one year were enrolled. The patients were divided into three age groups according to their age at the time of injury (group 1: <50, group 2: 50-69, group 3: ≥70). The types of ankle fractures were classified into unimalleolar, bimalleolar and trimalleolar fractures. The bone mineral density was analyzed using the T score, Z score, absolute value (g/cm2) of the lumbar spine (L1-L4), femur neck, femur intertrochanter, and total femur. Results: There were 3.2 times more females with ankle fractures than males, and the prevalence of osteoporosis according to age group was 0% in the group under 50 years, 24.2% in the 50 to 69-year-old group, and 15% in the group over 70 years. Osteoporosis was found in 30% of patients with a trimalleolar fracture in the 50 to 69-year-old group. In all patient groups, a lower age indicated a higher frequency of unimalleolar fractures. The relationship between the bone mineral density and the type of fracture is that the frequency of trimalleolar fracture increased with decreasing T score of the lumbar vertebrae and the absolute value of bone mineral density (g/cm2) and the Z score of the femur neck, but there were no other indicators. Conclusion: Among the 100 patients with ankle fractures, females were more common than males, because osteoporosis was less severe in males. The incidence of unimalleolar fracture was higher than that of trimalleolar fracture. On the other hand, the correlation between the ankle fractures and the bone mineral density of the femur and lumbar spine was not significant.

The Clinical Significance of Follow Up SCC Levels in Patients with Recurrent Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Cervix (재발성 자궁경부 편평상피암 환자들에서 Squamous Cell Carcinoma 항원의 유용성)

  • Choi Young Min;Park Sung Kwang;Cho Heung Lae;Lee Kyoung Bok;Kim Ki Tae;Kim Juree;Sohn Seung Chang
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.353-358
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : To investigate the clinical usefulness of a follow-up examination using serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC) for the early detection of recurrence in patients treated for conical squamous cell carcinoma. Materials and Methods : 20 patients who were treated for recurrent cervical squamous cell carcinoma between 1997 and 1998, who had experienced a complete remission after radiotherapy and who underwent an SCC test around the time when recurrence was detected, were included in this study. The levels of SCC were measured from the serum of the patients by immunoassay and values less than 2 ng/mL were regarded as normal. The sensitivity of the SCC test for use in the detection of recurrence, the association between the SCC values and the recurrence patterns and the tumor size and stage, and the temporal relation between the SCC increment and recurrence detection were evaluated. Results : The SCC values were above normal in 17 out of 20 patients, so the sensitivity of the SCC test for the detection of recurrence was $85\%$, and the mean and median of the SCC values were 15.2 and 9.5 ng/mL, respectively. No differences were observed in the SCC values according to the recurrence sites. For 11 patients, the SCC values were measured over a period of 6 months before recurrence was detected, and the mean and median values were 13.6 and 3.6 ng/mL, respectively. The SCC values of 7 patients were higher than the normal range, and the SCC values of the other 4 patients were normal but 3 among them were above 1.5 ng/mL. At the time of diagnosis, the SCC valuess were measured for 16 of the 20 recurrent patients, and the SCC values of the patients with a bulky tumor $(\geq4\;cm)$ or who were in stage IIb or III were higher than those of the patients with a non-bulky tumor or who were in stage Ib or IIa. Conclusion : The SCC test is thought to be useful for the early detection of recurrence during the follow up period in patients treated for cervical squamous cell carcinoma. When an effective salvage treatment is developed in the future, the benefit of this follow-up SCC test will be increased.

Reference Values and Water quality Assessment Based on the Regional Environmental Characteristics (해역의 환경특성을 고려한 해양환경 기준설정과 수질등급 평가)

  • Rho, Tae-Keun;Lee, Tong-Sup;Lee, Sang-Ryong;Choi, Man-Sik;Park, Chul;Lee, Jong-Hyun;Lee, Jae-Young;Kim, Seung-Su
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2012
  • For the development of reference values and evaluation of water quality in various environmental conditions, we divided the coastal region around Korean peninsular into 5 distinctive ecological regions based on the influence of surface current, depth, tidal range, turbidity, and climate condition. We used national marine environment monitoring data collected by National Fisheries Research & Development Institute(NFRDI) from 2000-2009. For the reference values, we used maximum seasonal mean from 2000 to 2007 for DIN, DIP, and chlorophyll-a and minimum seasonal mean for secchi depth measured at stations without the influence of river runoff in each ecological regions. For the reference value of bottom dissolved oxygen saturation, we used minimum mean value of 90% calculated from minimal riverine influence stations of whole regions. We calculated enrichment score for each assessment criteria. The enrichment score of DIN, DIP, and Chlorophyll-a was 1 (=< reference value), 2 (< 110% of reference value), 3 (< 125% of reference value), 4 (< 150% of reference value), and 5 (> 150% of reference value). The enrichment score of DO saturation and Secchi depth was 1 (> reference value), 2 (> 90% of reference value), 3 (>75 % of reference value), 4 (> 50% of reference value), and 5 (< 50% of reference value). We calculated water quality index using weighted linear combination of five enrichment score for the comparison of whole regions. From the water quality index distribution calculated from all stations between 2000 and 2007 period, we classified into 5 grade based on the standard deviation calculated from total water quality index. We assigned grade very good(I), good(II), moderate(III), bad(IV), and very bad(V) when the water quality index was less than 23, minimum + 1 sd, +2 sd, +3 sd, and grater than minium+ 3 sd, respectively.

Structure Analysis of Ship′s Collision Causes using Fuzzy Structural Modeling (퍼지구조모델을 이용한 선박충돌사고 원인의 구조분석)

  • Yang, Won-Jae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2003
  • The prevention of marine accidents has been a important topic in marine society for long time, and various safety policies and countermeasures have been developed and applied to prevent those accidents. In spite of these efforts, however, significant marine accidents have taken place intermittently. Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments, and many factors are related with ship's collision, whose factors are interacting. So, the analysis on ship's collision causes are very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. This study analysed the ship's collision data over the past 10 years(1991-2000), which is compiled by Korea Marine Accidents Inquiry Agency. The analysis confirmed that‘ship's collision’is occurred most frequently and the cause is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to analyse human factor. For this, the structure of human factor is analysed by the questionnaire methodology. Marine experts were surveyed based on major elements that were extracted from the human factor affecting to ship's collision. FSM has been widely adopted in modeling a dynamic system which is composed of human factors. Then, the structure analysis on the causes of ship's collision using FSM are performed. This structure model could be used in understanding and verifying the procedure of real ship's collision. Furthermore it could be used as the model to prevent ship's collision and reduce marine accidents.

Comparison of Drought Index of Agricultural Reservoir by Period (농업용 저수지의 저수량 자료 기간별 가뭄지수 비교)

  • KIM, Sun Joo;BARK, Min Woo;KANG, Seung mook;KWON, Hyung Joong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.391-391
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    • 2018
  • 가뭄은 일반적으로 강수량의 부족에 기인하며, 수자원의 이용 및 관리에 큰 영향을 미치는 자연재해이다. 2013년부터 2015년까지 우리나라의 연 평균 강수량은 각각 1,162mm, 1,173mm, 948mm로 평년대비 89.0%, 89.8%, 72.1%의 적은 강수를 보였다. 이는 마른장마, 평년보다 적게 발생한 태풍 등의 영향 인 것으로 판단되며 이러한 강수의 부족으로 인해 전국적으로 가뭄이 빈번하게 발생하였다. 이에 가뭄의 대처방안에 대한 관심이 증대되었고, 가뭄을 정량적으로 표현하고자 하는 연구들이 진행되었다. 가뭄은 크게 수문학적, 기상학적, 농업적 가뭄으로 구분되며 각각의 기준에 따라 다양한 변수들을 이용한 지표들이 개발되었다. 개발된 가뭄 지표는 가뭄을 평가하고 대비하기 위한 의사결정에 유용한 자료로 사용되고 있다. 농업적 가뭄은 강우부족, 실제와 잠재증발산량의 차이, 토양수분 부족, 저수지 또는 지하수위의 저하 등 농작물의 생육과 수확량에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 특성들을 고려하여 평가해야 하며, 이러한 특성들을 고려한 가뭄 지수로는 저수지 가뭄지수(RDI), 토양수분지수(SMI), 통합농업가뭄지수(IADI) 등이 개발되었다. 저수지 가뭄지수는 가뭄발생의 위험과 크기를 순별 가용저수량의 빈도를 이용하여 나타낸 가뭄 지표이다. 따라서 가뭄 지표를 산정하는데 사용된 자료의 기간에 따라 그 값의 차이가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 각각 10개년, 20개년, 30개년 기간의 백산저수지 농업지구 저수량 자료를 사용하여 2011년부터 2015년까지의 저수지 가뭄지수를 산정하였으며 이를 각각 비교하였다. 2006년부터 2015년까지 10개년 기간의 자료를 사용하여 산정한 가뭄지수는 2012년 ~ 2015년에 가뭄을 나타내고 있었고 특히, 2015년 6월 상순과 중순의 가뭄지수가 -4.1으로 가장 심한 가뭄을 나타내었다. 1996년부터 2015년까지 20개년 기간의 자료를 사용하여 산정한 가뭄지수는 2012 ~ 2015년에 가뭄을 나타내며 2015년 6월 상순과 중순의 가뭄지수는 각각 -0.9, -1.0으로 10개년의 기간을 사용하였을 때보다 완화된 모습을 보였다. 1986년부터 2015년까지 30개년 기간의 자료를 사용하여 산정한 가뭄지수는 2011년부터 2015년까지 가뭄을 나타내고 있었으며, 2015년 6월 상순과 중순의 경우 각각 -1.7, -1.0으로 20개년 자료를 사용하였을 때보다 심한 가뭄을 나타내지만, 10개년 자료를 사용하였을 때보다 완화된 가뭄을 나타내었다. 백산저수지의 경우 2011년부터 2015년까지 가뭄이 발생하였으나, 용수공급이 불가능 할 정도의 가뭄이 발생하지는 않은 것으로 조사되었으며, 30개년 자료를 사용한 가뭄지수가 이와 가장 근사한 가뭄정도를 나타내고 있다.

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A study to Predictive modeling of crime using Web traffic information (웹 검색 트래픽 정보를 이용한 범죄 예측 모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Min;Chung, Young-Suk;Park, Koo-Rack
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2015
  • In modern society, various crimes is occurred. It is necessary to predict the criminal in order to prevent crimes, various studies on the prediction of crime is in progress. Crime-related data, is announced to the statistical processing of once a year from the Public Prosecutor's Office. However, relative to the current point in time, data that has been statistical processing is a data of about two years ago. It does not fit to the data of the crime currently being generated. In This paper, crime prediction data was apply with Naver trend data. By using the Web traffic Naver trend, it is possible to obtain the data of interest level for crime currently being generated. It was constructed a modeling that can predict the crime by using traffic data of the Naver web search. There have been applied to Markov chains prediction theory. Among various crimes, murder, arson, rape, predictive modeling was applied to target. And the result of predictive modeling value was analyzed. As a result, it got the same results within 20%, based on the value of crime that actually occurred. In the future, it plan to advance research for the predictive modeling of crime that takes into the characteristics of the season.