• Title/Summary/Keyword: 미래연구

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Understanding Human Nobility Epoch, the Prerequisite of the Era of Resolution of Grievances (해원시대를 전제하는 인존시대에 대한 이해)

  • Park, Yong-cheol
    • Journal of the Daesoon Academy of Sciences
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    • v.27
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    • pp.135-169
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    • 2016
  • While examining the religious ideas implied by Jeungsan's Great Works of the Reordering of Universe, we find special ideas which cannot be found in any other religions, and these ideas are presented in diverse ways. Most of all, the representative idea is that of human nobility; a distinctive idea which makes Daesoonjinrihoe different from other religions. Thus, this research focuses on the following questions: when was Human Nobility concretely realized? What kind of organic relationship does human nobility have between the divine world and the world of humanity? In light of the forthcoming Era of Human Nobility, what are some concrete images which can be drawn from the interaction between the realms of heaven and humanity wherein preordinations are plotted in heaven and then carried out by humankind? Prior to formulating my own sense of the subject matter, I consulted 43 previous discussions and dissertations and arranged them chronologically so as to examine their correlation. From these sources and my own insights, I was able to gain a sense of the starting point of the era of human nobility and its tenor. I have found the following problems in previous research on the uniqueness and distinctness of human nobility: ①The conceptual undertones of human nobility have not been adequately gleaned. ②There do not seem to be any dissertations which examine the way in which human nobility is connected with the doctrines of the creative conjunction between yin and yang, the harmonious union of divine beings and human beings, and the resolution of grievances for mutual beneficence. ③In most dissertations, not only is the starting point of the Era of Human Nobility regarded as concurrent with the start of the 50,000 years of earthly paradise in the Later World, but also the point of division between the former world and the later world is widely disputed. ④In-depth and fully realized studies dealing with the subject of human nobility are not easily found. ⑤There is little sense of progression in the research on human nobility because scholars are not sufficiently engage with one another to achieve common consensus. Therefore, in this dissertation, I have provided answers to the problems I discovered in previous research. I have developed my own tenor as follows: ①By giving priority to the Jeongyeong, I have closely investigated the period which divides the Former World and the Later World. Then, I produced a chronological timeline to demonstrate the progression: the Former World → the Era of the Resolution of Grievances → the Later World. This aids in the comprehension of human nobility. ②The Era of Human Nobility was preceeded by the opening of the Era of the Resolution of Grievances of human world which began in 1901. Human nobility is stipulated as a regulatory system for the universe set in motion by the opening the Era of Resolution of Grievances. ③While synthetically examining the aspects of transition which enable the Ear of Human Nobility to be realized, the period to be studied is stipulated as beginning from 1901 and ending at the start of the Later World. The subjects are defined as the flowing from Jeungsan, the first leader of human nobility, to the noble individuals empowered by Dao and the noble populace. In the Era of Human Nobility, studying the transition process by which human nobility is realized requires delving into the resolution of grievances. Although this method is essential to understanding Daesoon ideas, in actuality it does not hinge upon speculative exegetical theorizing but instead it was gained through eisegetical rigor.

A Study on the Content Innovation of Home Economics Curricula Reflected in Social Change & Need (사회변화와 요구를 수용하는 가정교과의 내용 혁신 연구)

  • Park Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.1 s.39
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 2006
  • As our current society is increasingly demanding a Home Economics Education curriculum that projects the recent changes around us, in this study we hope to present which fundamental materials would be needed in Home Economics Education to satisfy the needs of learners in schools and to Provide actual practice and information crucial to live in the future society. A reform of the present Home Economics regime is needed, and as a result of critical analysis on the subject we found that it did not portray the plurality of family relations and cultures owing to the sudden changes in society, nor did it present an active curriculum that could be applied to the changes in social environments. This was partly because of the matter of establishing a proper academic identity of Home Economics Education, the matter of specializing curriculums and general methods of applying them, the academic conservatism in the field of Home Economics, and ineffectiveness of teacher reeducation as well as a lack of leadership on the part of administrative departments. The objective and content structure of Home Economics Education should be reformed to adjust to the current society by taking an approach focused on family and the consumer. In the family part, curriculums should include the formations of various family structures and home cultures to portray a more open concept of family, which should promote gender equality in matters of child upbringing and housework. From a humanitive perspective, Home Education should he dealing with the mediation and decision-making of individuals caught between social advancement and household functions. their communication skills in choosing and deciding, and furthermore their participation in their living communities which may present more material basis of critical scientific philosophies to be discussed in class. Additional themes such as sustainable consumption for earth environment and resource preservation and ways of application to rebuild our diminishing society must also be included in the education curriculum. We should look to find a more integrated approach to Home Economics Education rather than the present field based and specialized regime.

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The analyses of duplicated contents of 'Consumer Life' area in Technology & Home Economics and other subject textbooks for middle and high school students (중·고등학교 기술·가정 교과서와 타 교과 교과서의 '소비생활' 영역 중복 내용 분석)

  • Lee, Jung Yoon;Yu, Nan Sook
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.121-140
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    • 2015
  • The purposes of this study were to analyze the duplicated contents of 'Consumer life' area of Technology & Home Economics and other subject textbooks for the middle and high school students. It focused on textbooks compiled following the 2009 revised curriculum. To achieve the purposes of this study, "Technology & Home Economics I II", "Social studies I II", and "Ethics I II"textbooks for middle school and "Technology & Home Economics", "Social studies", and "Life & Ethics" textbooks for high school were analyzed based on the criteria for analyses of 'Consumer life' area. The results were as follows. First, the analysis of duplicated contents in Technology & Home Economics and other subjects (Ethics, Social studies) for middle school revealed that Technology & Home Economics textbook had the most proportion of 'Consumer Life' area, followed by Social studies and Ethics. The duplicated content elements in Technology & Home Economics, Ethics, and Social studies textbooks for middle school were 'consumer decision making', 'consumer information', 'economic impact of consumption', 'food life and sustainability', and 'consumption and sustainability'. Secondly, as a result of the content analysis of textbooks for high school Technology & Home Economics, Social studies, and Life & Ethics according to the criteria of analysis, it was found that Technology & Home Economics textbook had the most proportion of 'Consumer Life' area, followed by Life & Ethics and Social studies. The "content elements" 'food life management and consumption environment', 'desire of consumption', 'economic impact of consumption', 'changing factors and characteristics of consumer culture', and 'consumption and sustainability' were commonly found in all three textbooks. In this way, the 'Consumer life' area of Technology & Home Economics is thought to play a central role in teaching the 'Consumer Life' area because of its strength that contains detailed contents about consumer life for adolescent consumers who will apply it to everyday life. Based on the result of this research, it is needed to consider articulation of 'Consumer life' area of secondary schools for the future curriculum development of Technology & Home Economics to reduce the duplicated contents and to help the adolescents develop the ability to solve consumption problems they may encounter in real life and grow up to be rational adult consumers.

The Effects of Major Commitment Level by Department Climate among Students at the Department of Dental Hygiene (치위생과 학생이 인식한 학습풍토가 전공몰입에 미치는 영향)

  • Yu, Ji-Su;Choi, Su-Young
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.99-105
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    • 2011
  • In this study a survey was conducted with 431 students at the department of dental hygiene in three regions from April 2010 to investigate various actual states and levels of perception of their major commitment. Department-Climate and levels of major commitment were classified and described through cross-tabulation analysis; multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to predict the level of major commitment perceived for department climate and identify its influence. Major commitment classified into three levels about Inferiority, Normality and Superiority. Recognition factor of Major field was divided into external factor, eternal factor. External factor classified into professor, friends, facilities, administration-service and quality of education. As well as, eternal factor was department climate. Eternal factor consisted of relationship dimensions, goal-orientation dimensions, system maintenance dimensions and system change dimensions. This study was conducted to get a phenomenal understanding of students' learning in the major field and their school life. With this study, if friends and professor raise students at the Department of Dental Hygiene's department-climate recognition, their major-commitment will rise. And high major-commitment will be bring about their professional ability.

Comparison of Association Rule Learning and Subgroup Discovery for Mining Traffic Accident Data (교통사고 데이터의 마이닝을 위한 연관규칙 학습기법과 서브그룹 발견기법의 비교)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2015
  • Traffic accident is one of the major cause of death worldwide for the last several decades. According to the statistics of world health organization, approximately 1.24 million deaths occurred on the world's roads in 2010. In order to reduce future traffic accident, multipronged approaches have been adopted including traffic regulations, injury-reducing technologies, driving training program and so on. Records on traffic accidents are generated and maintained for this purpose. To make these records meaningful and effective, it is necessary to analyze relationship between traffic accident and related factors including vehicle design, road design, weather, driver behavior etc. Insight derived from these analysis can be used for accident prevention approaches. Traffic accident data mining is an activity to find useful knowledges about such relationship that is not well-known and user may interested in it. Many studies about mining accident data have been reported over the past two decades. Most of studies mainly focused on predict risk of accident using accident related factors. Supervised learning methods like decision tree, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, neural network are used for these prediction. However, derived prediction model from these algorithms are too complex to understand for human itself because the main purpose of these algorithms are prediction, not explanation of the data. Some of studies use unsupervised clustering algorithm to dividing the data into several groups, but derived group itself is still not easy to understand for human, so it is necessary to do some additional analytic works. Rule based learning methods are adequate when we want to derive comprehensive form of knowledge about the target domain. It derives a set of if-then rules that represent relationship between the target feature with other features. Rules are fairly easy for human to understand its meaning therefore it can help provide insight and comprehensible results for human. Association rule learning methods and subgroup discovery methods are representing rule based learning methods for descriptive task. These two algorithms have been used in a wide range of area from transaction analysis, accident data analysis, detection of statistically significant patient risk groups, discovering key person in social communities and so on. We use both the association rule learning method and the subgroup discovery method to discover useful patterns from a traffic accident dataset consisting of many features including profile of driver, location of accident, types of accident, information of vehicle, violation of regulation and so on. The association rule learning method, which is one of the unsupervised learning methods, searches for frequent item sets from the data and translates them into rules. In contrast, the subgroup discovery method is a kind of supervised learning method that discovers rules of user specified concepts satisfying certain degree of generality and unusualness. Depending on what aspect of the data we are focusing our attention to, we may combine different multiple relevant features of interest to make a synthetic target feature, and give it to the rule learning algorithms. After a set of rules is derived, some postprocessing steps are taken to make the ruleset more compact and easier to understand by removing some uninteresting or redundant rules. We conducted a set of experiments of mining our traffic accident data in both unsupervised mode and supervised mode for comparison of these rule based learning algorithms. Experiments with the traffic accident data reveals that the association rule learning, in its pure unsupervised mode, can discover some hidden relationship among the features. Under supervised learning setting with combinatorial target feature, however, the subgroup discovery method finds good rules much more easily than the association rule learning method that requires a lot of efforts to tune the parameters.

Design of the Former National Tax Service Building Site on Sejong-daero as a Historic Urban Landscape (역사도시경관으로서 세종대로 (구)국세청 별관 부지 설계)

  • Seo, Young-Ai
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2016
  • The Seoul metropolitan government announced an open design competition for reconfiguring the annex building of the National Tax Service Building site on Sejong-daero as a space for citizens to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Korea's liberation. The site, built during the Japanese colonial period, has been in use ever since. This study, as one of the entries for the competition, described the strategy and design contents by drawing the concept and main points of the design through an analysis of the historical context of the site. As the guidelines instructed to consider the value of the Sejong-daero area and the cultural heritage through a comprehensive analysis, this study specified the site as a place connecting the past, present and future. Since the foundation of the Joseon dynasty, the Korean Empire and the Japanese colonial period, Sejong-daero has been a main site for important events and activities along with the change of the city structure. Jungdong, to the rear of the site, was a place for adopting new culture during the beginnings of modern Korea, while adjacent places like Duksugung, the Anglican church, and the Seoul City Council building have also been historic urban landscapes of the historical layers of time as the city has changed. When Gojong announced the Korean Empire, the city structure was remodeled with this site as the center along with Sogong-ro, Wongudan and so forth. In this study, public interest stated in the guidelines was focused and the relevance of the road and the plaza was considered from the view of an historic urban landscape by a comprehensive analysis with Sejong-daero as the center. The restoration of public interest was to be drawn as the concept of the object site by considering the current status and the change around the site and Jungdong at the rear. Returning the site to the public is ambiguous with the relevance of the restoration of public interest and as the symbol of the idea of the Korean Empire by Gojong's announcement. The object site, having the characteristic of being returned to the public, must ensure public interest and therefore the design strategy has been established with the keywords of openness, connection and void. As a result of a review of the alternatives, a plan for a square has an 8% slope, just as the original site does, and provides ramps for convenient access for all, including the disabled and the elderly, and is connected to the grounds adjacent. No construction is allowed at the terrace square of the Anglican church level and the main square connected to the pedestrian street, so a variety of modern city utilization can be done. The value of the site at which this design is aimed shall be given back to the public with the concepts of modern democracy, independence, and the vision of Gojong by reinterpreting the space from a modern viewpoint. This study focused on the processes of establishing a main concept and strategy rather than the content of the design details, and the suggestion is meaningful in that the design for the object site with historic backgrounds and the layers of time can continue to be grown.

Extraction of Primary Factors Influencing Dam Operation Using Factor Analysis (요인분석 통계기법을 이용한 댐 운영에 대한 영향 요인 추출)

  • Kang, Min-Goo;Jung, Chan-Yong;Lee, Gwang-Man
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.769-781
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    • 2007
  • Factor analysis has been usually employed in reducing quantity of data and summarizing information on a system or phenomenon. In this analysis methodology, variables are grouped into several factors by consideration of statistic characteristics, and the results are used for dropping variables which have lower weight than others. In this study, factor analysis was applied for extracting primary factors influencing multi-dam system operation in the Han River basin, where there are two multi-purpose dams such as Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam, and water has been supplied by integrating two dams in water use season. In order to fulfill factor analysis, first the variables related to two dams operation were gathered and divided into five groups (Soyanggang Dam: inflow, hydropower product, storage management, storage, and operation results of the past; Chungju Dam: inflow, hydropower product, water demand, storage, and operation results of the past). And then, considering statistic properties, in the gathered variables, some variables were chosen and grouped into five factors; hydrological condition, dam operation of the past, dam operation at normal season, water demand, and downstream dam operation. In order to check the appropriateness and applicability of factors, a multiple regression equation was newly constructed using factors as description variables, and those factors were compared with terms of objective function used in operation water resources optimally in a river basin. Reviewing the results through two check processes, it was revealed that the suggested approach provided satisfactory results. And, it was expected for extracted primary factors to be useful for making dam operation schedule considering the future situation and previous results.

A Study on the Product Design Case Study of Differential Design Concept (차별화 된 디자인 개념의 제품디자인 사례 연구)

  • 이덕상;한세준;김홍규;조철희
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.335-350
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    • 2004
  • Design takes concrete form from the things which are not yet exist to the molded reality. Creation of value which is accompanied by the rational value could be possible only through the searching examination of the basic concept. All designs are under circumstances because the results and the character of the problems are different under the given conditions and circumstances which are the characteristic of the design. The aim of this study is searching for the differential design conce- pt which is the most appropriate and reasonable in the basic design process in which the phase of the analysis, synthesis and evaluation of the problem. First of all the pursuit value of the times and the change of the view point of value of the product design. How the pursuit value of times were searched and analyzed. Analyze the successful product design realization of the typical trend of the modern design which are 3-2. function-focused design, 3-3. emotion-centered design, 3-4. image communicative design through the metaphor, 3-5. environmental affinity design. On the base of the case analysis how to apply the differential design concept which is coming as a trend in the future society which are sustainable developing society was examined closely. The outcome through the analysis of the success cases are as follows, \circled1 the value of the spirit of the times should be emphasized as the design image, \circled2 environmental appropriateness should be taken into consideration as the first primary factor, \circled3 the realization of value of the fulfillment of differential consumer's needs, \circled4 lead to prolong the life cycle of the product, \circled5 promote the sustaining growth of enterprise, \circled6 user-centered product value should be the first consideration. \circled7 It is necessary to overcome the cultural andinguistic barriers and to reflect the metaphor which people remember well. \circled8 The application of human's true character should be decided beforehand. It is the commonness of values of times and customs. \circled9 The differentiated design concept which meets our mental satisfaction, not material one, will be required. In addition to this the creative and differentiated design concepts which are accompanied by the good design factor under the base of product could achieve the emotional consensus from the consumers. That is, the value of all designs should be estimated by the base of the humanism ' The human beings are the barometer of all things".ngs".uot;.

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Conceptions Toward Career Development and Occupational View between Giftedness in Computer Science and Normal Students in Elementary School (초등정보과학영재와 일반학생의 진로발달 및 직업관 인식에 대한 조사 연구)

  • Lee, Jaeho;Choi, Seung Hee
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.613-628
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to compare the differences of the career development and the occupational view between giftedness in computer science and normal students in elementary school, so the results of this study provide assistance to the teacher for the direction and guidance on the career education of the giftedness in computer science in elementary school. This survey is based on 82 giftedness in computer science and 167 normal elementary school students. The questionnaires used in the study contain questions asking regarding the career development and the occupational view. The results of this study were as follows : First, according to the consciousness analysis result about career, the giftedness in computer science choose to be scientific technicians, the normal students choose to be artists. The both groups get career information from their parents, but they usually don't get career counseling from teachers. The education of giftedness in computer science does not contribute to changing their dreams, while normal students have no interest in computer science. Second, according to the career development analysis result, in comparison with non-gifted students, the gifted in information science had more success in all domains of career development. Third, according to the occupational view analysis result, the information science gifted students had higher meaningful rate than the normal students. Intrinsic domain' had higher meaningful rate among the subordinate domains, there is no difference in 'extrinsic domain' and 'incidental domain' between the information science gifted students and the normal students. Fourth, according to the correlation analysis result of the career development and the occupational view, there is a positive correlation in all domains of them. The high they are in the career development, the more they have the certain occupational view. Likewise, if they have the certain occupational view, they will be more successful in career development. Based on the findings of this research, the directing and guidance on the career education of giftedness in computer science in elementary school is same as the followings. We should educate parents regarding information about career for students who are under the influence of parents greatly and indicate them to apply to their children appropriately. In addition, for making them to have the positive image of the computer science, teacher should provide more information about the area of information and form various curriculums to induce more interests about computer science. We need to strengthen the career education for guiding the gifted to assist them to establish their own goal and realize them how to study and choose their career in the future. In school education field, it must develop and manage the definite and empirical program, not the career development program which is focused on only entrance into advanced school, to boost self-realization ability and the suitable career education program based on the correct understanding on giftedness in computer science. For this, through steady trying and research, teachers should be eater to develop the career education for students. Also, we have to implement the internal stability career education program, so it will help students to be aware of their job and career; therefore, students will be able to plan and prepare for their career in this rapid changing world.