• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2012.04a
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• pp.349-352
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• 2012

이 논문은 기존의 포트폴리오와 관련된 모형에 경기변동(business cycle)과 관련된 변수들을 포함하였을 경우 경기변동이 개인투자자들의 현금 및 주식보유를 통한 자본이득 극대화와 어떤 관련성이 있는지와 관련된 것이다. 기존 문헌들을 살펴보면, 개인투자자들은 경기호황기에는 모멘텀 투자와 소형주와 성장주 등에 포트폴리오를 분산투자하지만 경기가 침체기(recession)에 들어설 경우 수익률이 급등락하는 특성을 지니는 소형주(small cap)에 집중적인 투자를 하는 성향을 나타내고 있다. 한편 이 논문의 분석결과에 따르면, 경기안정과 금리안정정책, 물가안정 등은 서로 상충관계(trade-off)에 놓여 있음에도 불구하고 코스피수익률과 코스닥수익률에 모두 향후 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다. 이는 현재까지의 정책조합(policy mix)보다 더 정교하고 타이밍을 잘 포착하지 않으면 정책실패에 따른 경기와 물가불안이 동시에 나타나는 스태그 플레이션(stagflation)으로 이어질 수 있음으로 정책집행의 효율성이 어느 때보다도 중요해 질 것으로 보인다.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2012.04a
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• pp.353-370
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• 2012

이 논문은 기존의 포트폴리오와 관련된 모형에 경기변동(business cycle)과 관련된 변수들을 포함하였을 경우 경기변동이 개인투자자들의 현금 및 주식보유를 통한 자본이득 극대화와 어떤 관련성이 있는지와 관련된 것이다. 기존 문헌들을 살펴보면, 개인투자자들은 경기호황기에는 모멘텀 투자와 소형주와 성장주 등에 포트폴리오를 분산투자하지만 경기가 침체기(recession)에 들어설 경우 수익률이 급등락하는 특성을 지니는 소형주(small cap)에 집중적인 투자를 하는 성향을 나타내고 있다. 한편 이 논문의 분석결과에 따르면, 경기안정과 금리안정정책, 물가안정 등은 서로 상충관계(trade-off)에 놓여 있음에도 불구하고 코스피수익률과 코스닥수익률에 모두 향후 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다. 이는 현재까지의 정책조합(policy mix)보다 더 정교하고 타이밍을 잘 포착하지 않으면 정책실패에 따른 경기와 물가불안이 동시에 나타나는 스태그 플레이션(stagflation)으로 이어질 수 있음으로 정책집행의 효율성이 어느 때보다도 중요해 질 것으로 보인다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.97-117
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• 2008

본 연구의 목적은 AR(1)-GARCH(1, 1)모형을 이용하여 우리나라의 거시경제변수의 변동성으로부터 주식시장의 변동성으로 전이효과(spillover)가 존재하는지를 규명하는데 있다. 본 연구는 자본시장이 개방되기 시작한 1992년 1월부터 2007년 6월까지 186개월치의 KOSPI 지수 및 주요산업지수와 거시경제변수인 정부의 통화정책을 반영하는 콜금리, 미달러환율, 인플레이션의 대용치인 생산자물가지수 자료에 근거하여 거시경제변수의 주식시장에 대한 변동성전이효과를 AR(1)-GARCH(1, 1)모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 콜금리의 KOSPI 지수수익률에 대해 변동성전이효과는 통계적으로 비유의적으로 나타나 변동성전이효과가 없는 것으로 나타났으며 환율은 KOSPI에 대해 양(+)의 변동성전이효과가 존재함을 보였다. 이는 미달러환율의 기대치 않은 변동성이 주식시장의 변동성에 양(+)으로 충격을 준다는 것을 의미한다. 또한 인플레이션의 대용치인 생산자물가지수(PPI)는 주식시장에 대해 변동성전이효과가 1% 유의수준에서 통계적으로 유의하여 강한 변동성전이효과가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 이자율을 나타내는 콜금리를 제외하고 Cumhur, Arslan and Meziyet(2005)의 연구와 동일한 결과를 보였다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.352-361
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic forces on the management performance of the air transport firms and offer the useful information to the managers. To conduct the regression analysis, eight macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables were selected individually as an independent variable. Macroeconomic variables were the return of corporate bond, West Texas Intermediate, the unemployment rate, the money supply, the trade balance, the won to USD exchange rate, the consumer price index and the index of industrial production. And non-macroeconomic variables were Taiwan earthquake, the Asian economic crisis, the 911 terrorist attacks in the US, the Iraq war, Beijing Olympic, the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic, the 1st presidential election and the 2nd presidential election. And ROA was selected as a dependent variable. As the result of analysis, it was found that the changing rates of won to USD exchange rate and consumer price index affected the changing rate of ROA significantly. And also as the result of analysing the impact of two significant macroeconomic variables and eight non-macroeconomic variables on the changing rate of ROA, it was found that the Asian economic crisis and the outbreak of a swine flu epidemic had a negative impact on it. Therefore managers should take note of a change in macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic variables carefully to improve the management performance.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.169-176
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• 2019

Recently, the Korean economy is congested with Japan's economic retaliation, the US-China trade war, the Bank of Korea's 0.25% base rate cut and Korea's economic growth forecast revision. The purpose of this study is to analyze the KOSPI, CPI, Treasury bonds(3 years) Interest rate & sales performance of all industries, and examine the impact of each index on the KOSPI. The analysis period is from January 2003 to June 2019, and the effect of each index on the KOSPI is analyzed. In numerical analysis, we performed correlation coefficients and regression analysis. In the model analysis, the distribution, quadrant, scatter, box-plot and impulse response were examined. This study examined the volatility and dynamic characteristics of each index. As a result, the KOSPI showed a high correlation with sales and Treasury bonds, but showed a very low correlation with the CPI. The KOSPI will continue to be affected by sales and interest rates.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.108-114
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• 2012

Escalation method examining the changes in price index has been widely utilized in public construction projects. The previous escalation method determined estimated changes in price based on the average unit price of contract items over a period of time. In relation to this method, the issue has been raised that the fluctuation rates of previous method show different trends compared with other related price indices, as the influence of the small group of contract items with large unit prices overwhelms the others. This research suggested an improved escalation method which estimates the fluctuation rate by examining the changes in CCI (construction cost index) and applies it to the total amount or the partial amount deducted for labor cost in price escalation for previous bid price method. To verify the improvement, a case study is conducted on an educational facility, and the fluctuation rate was estimated in two different base periods (short term, long term). The results over the long term showed similar tendencies to those of related price indices, as well as significant differences in fluctuation rates compared to those of the previous method.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.197-221
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• 1995

본 논문에서는 산업연관 분석모형을 이용하여 1980년대 수출산업에서의 유가변화의 산업별 파급효과를 분석하고, 1990년대 유가 파급효과를 추정하여 보았으며, 1980년대 산업별 물가상승 요인을 계측하여 1970년대 물가상승요인과 비교분석하여 보았다. 1980년대 상반기의 유가 파급효과가 큰 산업은 석유제품과 에너지 다소비 품종인 화학, 비금속 광물, 전기가스수도, 철강, 금속 등으로 나타났으며 대부분의 산업은 유가인상율의 5% 내외의 인상효과를 나타내었다. 유가 인하기였던 1980년대 하반기에도 인하효과는 산업별로 상반기와 비교할 때 큰 차이는 없었으나, 기계, 전기, 전자통신, 자동차 등 주요 수출산업의 가격인하 효과는 그다지 크지 않은 것으로 분석되었다. 저물가 시대였던 1980년대의 주요 물가변화 요인으로는 임금 등 부가가치 및 원유가격의 변화로서 1970년대와 큰 차이가 없었으나, 중간재 수입가격, 수입계수 및 수업률 변화의 물가변화 기여도는 아주 작아서 1970년대와는 다른 양상을 보였다. 한편 1990년대의 유가파급효과 추정을 위한 모의실험 결과를 보면, 1980년대와 마찬가지로 석유관련 제품의 가격인상 효과가 두드러지겠지만, 1970년대와 1980년대에 비해서 유가파급효과는 상대적으로 낮을 것으로 추정되어 수출산업의 가격경쟁력은 임금, 기타 원자재 가격 등 여타 물가인상 요인에 더 영향을 받을 것으로 예상된다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.67-76
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• 2012

There are index adjustment method and item adjustment method in estimation methods for price fluctuation rate of public constructions. A relevant regulation has put item adjustment method as a principle, but in most construction, contract sum adjustment has been made by index adjustment method. Hence, this study, by figuring out width and causes of the gap between index adjustment method and item adjustment method through direct comparative analysis, solved inequality caused by difference between them and suggested a rational way against irrationality of each method. For building operations of public housing construction, a detailed fluctuation rate by index adjustment method and item adjustment method of construction cost elements of the same construction, that is, direct material cost, direct labor cost and historical construction cost was estimated to analyze difference between two adjustments and establish its cause. Across the analysis, it was found that fluctuation rate by item adjustment method was estimated lower than that by index adjustment method and difference between methods for estimating fluctuation rate of quotation unit price and application of index unrelated to construction type and construction nature are main causes of the difference. This study has a significance in that, for smooth contract sum adjustment between contracting parties, it practically proved the real difference between adjustment methods by conducting comparative analysis of the difference in direct correspondence way.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.1377-1386
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• 2015

GDP gap is closely related with economic activity of a country as a whole, especially with the economic fluctuations which is called business cycle. GDP gap is regarded as an important variable for the monetary policy of the central bank because it provides information on the excess demand pressures and employment matters. However, GDP gap may not provide enough information of the effect of recent economic structural change or the environmental change of domestic and external economic condition. In this paper, the GDP is decomposed by statistical filtering techniques and various models are fitted to estimate the influence of GDP gap on Inflation and see if it has been changed. Analysis results show that the influence of GDP gap on inflation decreased in the 2000s while that of global GDP gap increased. These results also support that recent low inflation rate is due to the change of overseas economic condition, such as a slowdown in exports resulting from the global recession, as well as domestic factors.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.3-11
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• 2019

The construction of a facility is an act whereby infrastructure such as roads and railways and other facilities such as housing and office spaces are constructed, and due to the characteristics of the relevant industry where such construction is carried out in a custom order method, it requires a long period of time mostly. While the construction is carried out over a long period of time, fluctuations in the price of raw materials required for the construction occur. Therefore, the cost of the construction also fluctuates inevitably. The fluctuation of the construction cost meshes closely with the profit of a constructor and the efficiency of government spending. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain the construction cost at a reasonable level by adjusting the construction cost rationally in order to secure the required construction quality and spend the budget efficiently. The buffer system for solving such problem is the contract amount adjustment system by fluctuations in prices (Escalation/De-Escalation). In this study, the method combining the escalation method based on the item adjustment method was suggested for an efficient contract amount adjustment method. In addition, it is proposed that there be an investigation and codification of matters not applied to government acts and regulations on contracts related to the adjustment of fluctuations in prices legally.