• Title/Summary/Keyword: 몬테카를로 법

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Monte-Carlo Tree Search Applied to the Game of Tic-Tac-Toe (삼목 게임에 적용된 몬테카를로 트리탐색)

  • Lee, Byung-Doo
    • Journal of Korea Game Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2014
  • The game of Go is one of the oldest games and originated at least more than 2,500 years ago. In game programming the most successful approach is to use game tree searches using evaluation functions. However it is really difficult to construct feasible evaluation function in computer Go. Monte-Carlo Tree Search(MCTS) has created strong computer Go programs such as MoGo and CrazyStone which defeated human Go professionals played on the $9{\times}9$ board. MCTS is based on the winning rate estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation. Prior to implementing MCTS into computer Go, we tried to measure each winning rate of three positions, center, corner and side, in Tic-Tac-Toe playing as the best first move. The experimental result revealed that the center is the best, a corner the next and a side the last as the best first move.

Application of Importance Sampling to Reliability Analysis of Caisson Quay Wall (케이슨식 안벽의 신뢰성해석을 위한 중요도추출법의 적용)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyawn;Yoon, Gil-Lim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.405-409
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    • 2009
  • Reliability analysis of coastal structure using importance sampling was shown. When Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate overturng failure probability of coastal structure, very low failure probability leads to drastic increase in simulation time. However, importance sampling which uses randomly chosen design candidates around the failure surface makes it possible to analyze very low failure probability efficiently. In the numerical example, failure probability of caisson type quay wall was analyzed by using importance sampling and performance according to the level of failure probability was shown.

Risk Analysis of Thaw Penetration Due to Global Climate Change in Cold Regions

  • Bae, Yoon-Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2009
  • A probabilistic approach may be adopted to predict freeze and thaw depths to account for the variability of (1) material properties, and (2) contemporary and future surface energy input parameters(e.g. air temperatures, cloud cover, snow cover) predicted with global climate models. To illustrate the probabilistic approach, an example of the predicted of thaw depths in cold regions is considered. More specifically, the Stefan equation is used together with the Monte Carlo simulation technique to make a probabilistic prediction of thaw penetration. The simulation results indicate that the variability in material properties, surface energy input parameters and temperature data can lead to significant uncertainty in predicting thaw penetration.

Density-Constrained Moving Least Squares for Visualizing Various Vector Patterns (다양한 벡터 패턴 시각화를 위한 밀도 제한 이동최소제곱)

  • SuBin Lee;Jong-Hyun Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2023.07a
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    • pp.577-580
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    • 2023
  • 물리 기반 시뮬레이션과 같이 연속적인 움직임을 표현하기 위해서 고차 보간(High-order interpolation)을 설계하는 것을 중요한 문제이다. 본 논문에서는 제약적인 벡터와 밀도 형태를 몬테카를로법을 사용하여 이동최소제곱(MLS, Moving least squares)을 제곱하여 이를 통해 속도 필드를 표현할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 결과적으로 밀도의 형태를 고려하여 MLS의 가중치가 적용된 결과를 보여주며, 그 결과가 벡터 보간에 얼마나 큰 영향을 끼치는지를 다양한 실험을 통해 보여준다.

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Statistical Uncertainty Analysis of Thermal Mass Method for Residual Propellant Estimation (잔여추진제 추정을 위한 열질량법의 통계적 불확실성 분석)

  • Park, Eungsik;Park, BongKyu;Huh, Hwanil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.12
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    • pp.1116-1123
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    • 2015
  • The lifetime of a geostationary satellite depends on the residual propellant amount and therefore the precise residual propellant gauging is very important for the mitigation of economic loss arised from premature removal of satellite from its orbit, satellites replacement planning, slot management and so on. In this paper, the thermal mass method and its uncertainty are described. The residual propellant analysis of a geostationary satellite is simulated based on the KOREASAT data and the uncertainty of thermal mass method is calculated by using the Monte Carlo method. The results of this study show the importance parameter of estimation residual propellant using the thermal mass method.

Accuracy evaluation of llluminance Calcuation methods Compared with the Monte-Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 위한 기준으로 한 조도 계산법의 정확도 평가)

  • 김창섭;심상만
    • The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 1996
  • 평균조도 계산법 중에서 국내에서 주로 사용되는 3배광법과 ZCM의 정확도를 비교하고, 그 적용한계를 파악하였다. 비교방법은 전반확산형 조명기구와 직접식 조명기구에 대하여 3배광법과 ZCM에 의한 조명률을 계산하고, 이 값들을 이용하여 여러 상황하에서의 평균조도를 계산하였다. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션으로 동일상황에서의 조도값을 구하고, 이 값과 3배광법과 ZCM의 조도값을 각각 비교하였다. MCS법의 정확도는 Moon위 해석적인 방법과 비교하여 입증하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 1. 방의 크기에 따른 평균조도 비교에서 전반확 형 조명기구와 직접식 조명기구의 경우 3배광법 보다 ZCM이 평균조도 오차가 적었다. 2. 광원의 수 변화에 따른 평균조도 비교에서 직접식 조명기구의 경우 3배광법은 광원의 수가 증가할수록 평균조도 오차가 감소하다가 다시 증가하였고 ZCM 은 점차적으로 감소하였다. 3. 실내면 반사율 변화에 따른 비교에서 직접식 조명기구의 경우 오차 범의가 3배광법에서 크고 ZCM에서 적게 나타냈다. 4. 방의 형태 변화에 따른 평균조도 비교에서 직접식 조명기구의 경우 방의 폭이 좁고 길이가 긴 공간에서 3배광법과 ZCM모두 오차가 크게 낱났다. 또 정방형에서 가까울수록 오차는 작아지면서 3배광법 보다 ZCM의 오차가 적었다. 그러므로 우리나라에서 혼용되고 있는 3배광법과 ZCM중에서 정확도가 높은 ZCM선택이 바람직하다.

A Monte-Carlo Least Squares Approach for CO2 Abatement Investment Options Analysis with Linearly Non-Separable Profits of Power Plants (분리불가 이윤함수를 가진 발전사의 온실가스 감축투자 옵션 연구: 몬테카를로 최소자승법)

  • Park, Hojeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.607-627
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    • 2015
  • As observed and experienced in EU ETS, allowance price volatility is one of major concerns in decision making process for $CO_2$ abatement investment. The problem of linearly non-separable profits functions could emerge when one power company holds several power plants with different technology specifications. Under this circumstance, conventional analytical solution for investment option is no longer available, thereby calling for the development of numerical analysis. This paper attempts to develop a Monte-Carlo least squares model to analyze investment options for power companies under emission trading scheme regulations. Stochastic allowance price is considered, and simulation is performed to verify model performance.

SURE-based-Trous Wavelet Filter for Interactive Monte Carlo Rendering (몬테카를로 렌더링을 위한 슈어기반 실시간 에이트러스 웨이블릿 필터)

  • Kim, Soomin;Moon, Bochang;Yoon, Sung-Eui
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.43 no.8
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    • pp.835-840
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    • 2016
  • Monte Carlo ray tracing has been widely used for simulating a diverse set of photo-realistic effects. However, this technique typically produces noise when insufficient numbers of samples are used. As the number of samples allocated per pixel is increased, the rendered images converge. However, this approach of generating sufficient numbers of samples, requires prohibitive rendering time. To solve this problem, image filtering can be applied to rendered images, by filtering the noisy image rendered using low sample counts and acquiring smoothed images, instead of naively generating additional rays. In this paper, we proposed a Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) based $\grave{A}$-Trous wavelet to filter the noise in rendered images in a near-interactive rate. Based on SURE, we can estimate filtering errors associated with $\grave{A}$-Trous wavelet, and identify wavelet coefficients reducing filtering errors. Our approach showed improvement, up to 6:1, over the original $\grave{A}$-Trous filter on various regions in the image, while maintaining a minor computational overhead. We have integrated our propsed filtering method with the recent interactive ray tracing system, Embree, and demonstrated its benefits.

Study of the UCAS Susceptibility Parameters and Sensitivities by using Monte-Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 모사법을 이용한 무인전투기의 위약도에 영향을 미치는 파라미터와 민감도에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Sik;Lee, Kyung-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.242-253
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    • 2011
  • The typical missions for the current stand-off UAVs are surveillance and reconnaissance. On the other hand, the primary mission for the future UCAS will be combat mission such as SEAD under the man-made ultimately hostile environment including SAM, antiaircraft artillery, threat radar, etc. Therefore, one of the most important challenges in UCAS design is improvement of survivability. The current studies for aircraft combat survivability are focused on the improvement of susceptibility and vulnerability of manned aircraft system. Although the survivability design methodology for UCAS might be very similar to the manned combat system but there are some differences in mission environment, system configuration, performance between manned and unmanned systems. So the parameters and their sensitivities which affect aircraft combat survivability are different in qualitatively and quantitatively. The susceptibility related parameters for F-16 C/D and X-45A as an example of manned and unmanned system are identified and the susceptibility parameter sensitivities are analyzed by using Monte-Carlo Simulation in this study.