• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2020

One of the important problem in statistical hydrology is to estimate the appropriated probability distribution for a given sample data. For the problem, a goodness-of-fit test is conducted based on the similarity between estimated probability distribution and assumed theoretical probability distribution. Probability plot correlation coefficient test (PPCC) is one of the goodness-of-fit test method. PPCC has high rejection power and its application is simple. In this study, test statistics of PPCC were derived for generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) models based on L-moments and these statistics were suggested by the multiple and nonlinear regression equations for its usability. To review the rejection power of the newly proposed method in this study, Monte Carlo simulation was performed with other goodness-of-fit tests including the existing PPCC test. The results showed that PPCC-A test which is proposed in this study demonstrated better rejection power than other methods, including the existing PPCC test. It is expected that the new method will be helpful to estimate the appropriate probability distribution model.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.355-362
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• 2012

Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction of a system is important in the prognostics field since it is directly linked with safety and maintenance scheduling. In the physics-based prognostics, accurately estimated model parameters can predict the remaining useful life exactly. It, however, is not a simple task to estimate the model parameters because most real system have multivariate model parameters, also they are correlated each other. This paper presents representative methods to estimate model parameters in the physics-based prognostics and discusses the difference between three methods; the particle filter method(PF), the overall Bayesian method(OBM), and the sequential Bayesian method(SBM). The three methods are based on the same theoretical background, the Bayesian estimation technique, but the methods are distinguished from each other in the sampling methods or uncertainty analysis process. Therefore, a simple physical model as an easy task and the Paris model for crack growth problem are used to discuss the difference between the three methods, and the performance of each method evaluated by using established prognostics metrics is compared.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.132-144
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• 2023

Recently, the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to the increase in climate change temperature are increasing. Therefore, this study tried to compare the evaluation process and evaluation results of the heat wave disaster evaluation, which is the government's analysis of the heat wave disaster vulnerability and the risk evaluation method recently emphasized by the IPCC. The analysis of climate change disaster vulnerability is evaluated based on manuals and guidelines prepared by the government. Risk evaluation can be evaluated as the product of the possibility of a disaster and its impact, and it is evaluated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Bayesian estimation method, which uses prior information to infer posterior probability. As a result of the analysis, the two evaluation results for Busan Metropolitan City differed slightly in the spatial distribution of areas vulnerable to heat waves. In order to properly evaluate disaster vulnerable areas due to climate change, the process and results of climate change disaster vulnerability analysis and risk assessment must be reviewed, and consider each methodology and countermeasures must be prepared.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.73-77
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• 2012

Recently, Interest to the photoconductor, which is used to flat form X-ray detector such as a-Se, $HgI_2$, PbO, CdTe, $PbI_2$ etc. is increasing. In this study, the film layer by using the photoconductive material with particle sedimentation was fabricated and evaluated. The quantization efficiency of the continuous X-ray with the 70 kVp energy bandwidth was analyzed by using the Monte Carlo simulation. With the results, the thickness of film with 64 % quantization efficiency was 180 ${\mu}m$ which is similar to the efficiency of 500 ${\mu}m$ a-Se film. And $HIg_2$ film has the high quantization efficiency of 74 % on 240 ${\mu}m$ thickness. The electrical characteristics of the 239 ${\mu}m$ $Hgl_2$ films produced by particle sedimentation were shown as very low dark current(under 10 $pA/mm^2$), and high sensitivity(19.8 mC/mR-sec) with 1 $V/{\mu}m$ input voltage. The SNR, which is influence to the contrast of X-ray image, was shown highly as 3,125 in low driving voltage on 0.8 $V/{\mu}m$. With the results of this study, the development of the low-cost, high-performance image detector with film could be possible by replacing the film produced by particle sedimentation instead to a-Se detector.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.273-279
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• 2007

Probabilistic Risk Assessment considering statistically random variables is performed for the preliminary design of an Arch Bridge. Component reliabilities of girders have been evaluated using the response surfaces of the design variables at the selected critical sections based on the maximum shear and negative moment locations. Response Surface Method (RSM) is successfully applied for reliability analyses lot this relatively small probability of failure of the complex structure, which is hard to be calculated by Monte-Carlo Simulations or by First Order Second Moment method that can not easily calculate the derivative terms in implicit limit state functions. For the analysis of system reliability, parallel resistance system composed of girders is modeled as a parallel series connection system. The upper and lower probabilities of failure for the structural system have been evaluated and compared with the suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes. The suggested prediction method for the combination of failure modes reveals the unexpected combinations of element failures in significantly reduced time and efforts, compared with the previous permutation method or conventional system reliability analysis method.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.423-428
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• 2015

To identify locations and causes of interference among parts of an indoor air-conditioning unit, a 3D tolerance analysis was performed and optimized with respect to assembly gaps and the tolerance of each part. The maximum value of the defect rate resulting from the tolerance analysis was found to be 72.6 at the assembly portion of the body and drain. The maximum displacement caused by the thermal deformation during a heating operation was calculated to be approximately 1 mm by using finite element analysis (FEA). Therefore, it is possible that an interference among the assembled parts occurs. The tolerance of the drain was modified by the results of the sensitivity analysis. As a result, the defect rate was greatly reduced to 0.03. Through the FEA results of the indoor air-conditioning unit, it was shown that the improved tolerance of the drain decreased the interference among the assembled parts even though thermal deformation occurs during operation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2819-2830
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• 2009

Load bearing structural members in a wide variety of applications accumulate damage over their service life. During experiment much effort and cost is needed for measuring structural safety assessment. The sparseness and errors of measured data have to be considered during the safety estimation of structures. This paper introduces parameter estimation and damage identification algorithm by a system identification using static and dynamic response. The equation error estimator and response error widely used in system identification are based on the minimization of least squared error between measured and calculated responses by a mathematical model of a structure. Since each estimator has a specific form of application in noisy environment and proposes different definitions for these forms. To study the behaviour of the estimators in noisy environment Using Monte Carlo simulation, and a data measured pertubation scheme is adopted to investigate the influence of measurement errors on identification results. The assessment result by static and dynamic response were compared, and the efficiency and applicabilities of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated through simulated static and dynamic responses of a dimensional truss type structures.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.316-323
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• 2015

In this study, we analyzed radiation dose and MTF with setting of Ion chamber and changing kVp so that we are able to suggest acquiring optimized diagnostic images and minimizing patient dose. we assumed right lateral decubitus position among chest decubitus projection and set 7 combination of Ion chamber. By changing kVp(100, 110, 120, 130kVp), we exposed x-ray five times respectively and calculated average value after measuring entrance dose. we input the entrance dose value to PCXMC Monte carlo simulation tool and calculated organ dose and effective dose. Then we did physical image evaluation with MTF for the purpose to compare image quality. As a result, the high kVp, entrance dose is reduced. As change of ion chamber, when selecting second ion chamber, both organ dose and effective dose were the lowest. In contrast, selecting first ion chamber was the highest. MTF is superior to set second Ion chamber and using 120 kVp. Consequently, when taking chest right lateral decubitus using Digital radiography, the optimized combination which have both reducing dose efficiently without declining image quality and aquring good qualified image is set 120 kVp and selecting second Ion chamber.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.12
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• pp.653-659
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• 2018

The accurate prediction of construction cost is a key factor in a project's success. However, it is hard to predict the construction costs in the planning stages rapidly and precisely when drawings, specifications, construction cost calculation statements are incomplete, among other factors. Accurate construction-cost prediction in the planning stage of a project is also important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. Therefore, various techniques have been applied to accurately predict construction costs at an early stage when project information is limited. There are many factors that affect the construction cost prediction. This paper presents a construction-cost prediction method as multiple regression model with seven construction factors as independent variables. The method was used to predict the construction cost of a local housing union project, and the error rate was 4.87%. It is not possible to compare the cost of the project at the planning stage of the local housing union project, but it has high prediction accuracy compared to the unit price of an existing unit area. It is likely to be applied in construction-cost calculation work and to contribute to the establishment of the budget for the local housing union project.

• Korean Journal of Materials Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 1995

$Ta_2O_5$ thin film IS a promising material for the high dielectrics of ULSI DRAM. In this study, $Ta_2O_5$ thin film was grown on p-type( 100) Si wafer by thermal metal organic chemical vapo deposition ( MCCVD) method and the effect of operating varialbles including substrate temperature( $T_s$), bubbler temperature( $T_ \sigma$), reactor pressure( P ) was investigated in detail. $Ta_2O_5$ thin film were analyzed by SEM, XRD, XPS, FT-IR, AES, TEM and AFM. In addition, the effect of various anneal methods was examined and compared. Anneal methods were furnace annealing( FA) and rapid thermal annealing( RTA) in $N_{2}$ or $O_{2}$ ambients. Growth rate was evidently classified into two different regimes. : (1) surface reaction rate-limited reglme in the range of $T_s$=300 ~ $400 ^{\circ}C$ and (2: mass transport-limited regime in the range of $T_s$=400 ~ $450^{\circ}C$.It was found that the effective activation energies were 18.46kcal/mol and 1.9kcal/mol, respectively. As the bubbler temperature increases, the growth rate became maximum at $T_ \sigma$=$140^{\circ}C$. With increasing pressure, the growth rate became maximum at P=3torr but the refractive index which is close to the bulk value of 2.1 was obtained in the range of 0.1 ~ 1 torr. Good step coverage of 85. 71% was obtained at $T_s$=$400 ^{\circ}C$ and sticking coefficient was 0.06 by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation result. From the results of AES, FT-IR and E M , the degree of SiO, formation at the interface between Si and TazO, was larger in the order of FA-$O_{2}$ > RTA-$O_{2}$, FA-$N_{2}$ > RTA-$N_{2}$. However, the $N_{2}$ ambient annealing resulted in more severe Weficiency in the $Ta_2O_5$ thin film than the TEX>$O_{2}$ ambient.