• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모형식별

Search Result 278, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Transfer Function Model Forecasting of Sea Surface Temperature at Yeosu in Korean Coastal Waters (전이함수모형에 의한 여수연안 표면수온 예측)

  • Seong, Ki-Tack;Choi, Yang-Ho;Koo, Jun-Ho;Lee, Mi-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.526-534
    • /
    • 2014
  • In this study, single-input transfer function model is applied to forecast monthly mean sea surface temperature(SST) in 2010 at Yeosu in Korean coastal waters. As input series, monthly mean air temperature series for ten years(2000-2009) at Yeosu in Korea is used, and Monthly mean SST at Yeosu station in Korean coastal waters is used as output series(the same period of input). To build transfer function model, first, input time series is prewhitened, and then cross-correlation functions between prewhitened input and output series are determined. The cross-correlation functions have just two significant values at time lag at 0 and 1. The lag between input and output series, the order of denominator and the order of numerator of transfer function, (b, r, s) are identified as (0, 1, 0). The selected transfer function model shows that there does not exist the lag between monthly mean air temperature and monthly mean SST, and that transfer function has a first-order autoregressive component for monthly mean SST, and that noise model was identified as $ARIMA(1,0,1)(2,0,0)_{12}$. The forecasted values by the selected transfer function model are generally $0.3-1.3^{\circ}C$ higher than actual SST in 2010 and have 6.4 % mean absolute percentage error(MAPE). The error is 2 % lower than MAPE by ARIMA model. This implies that transfer function model could be more available than ARIMA model in terms of forecasting performance of SST.

Preparation of the Inundation Map Using 1-Dimensional Pond Model (1차원 Pond모형을 이용한 예상침수지도 작성)

  • Yoon Jae Young;Moon Young Ju;Jang Su Hyung;Yoon Yong Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2005.05b
    • /
    • pp.163-167
    • /
    • 2005
  • 하천변 저지대를 HEC-RAS의 저류지(Storage) 기능을 사용하여 모형화 하고 자연배수시설과 배수펌프장을 모의할 수 있는 기능에 의해 하도와 연결한 후 1차원 부정류해석을 수행하였다. 그 결과 유역에서 저지대로 유입한 홍수량과 저지대에서 하천으로 배제되는 홍수량의 차이를 산정하여 내수침수를 유발하는 저류량과 침수위을 결정할 수 있었으며, 이렇게 결정된 저류지의 시간대별 침수위를 저지대의 표고와 비교함으로써 침수지역을 식별하고 침수심별로 상이한 형태의 시각정보로 변환하여 시간대별 침수심별 예상침수지도를 작성하였다. 본 모형을 삽교천 유역에 적용한 결과 실제 발생한 홍수사상의 특성을 잘 재현하여 상기한 정보들이 충분한 활용가치가 있는 것으로 평가되었다.

  • PDF

A Study on IFLA Functional Requirements for Bibliographic Records Model (IFLA의 서지레코드 기능요건(FRBR) 모형 고찰)

  • Lee, Sung-Sook
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.37 no.2
    • /
    • pp.319-342
    • /
    • 2003
  • Catalog serves a dual purposes. One is finding function(or identifying function) that is identified and located specific items and the other is collocating function which is displayed specific author's all works and all related editions. This study is re-examined the functions of catalog. For catalog's effective serving this study is provided and overviewed the FRBR(Functional Requirements for Bibliographic Record) models as reference conceptual model for functions of catalog.

A Study on the Model Test Scheme for Establishing the Mathematical Model of Hydrodynamic Force and Moment Acting on a Slowly Moving Ship (저속시 선체에 작용하는 유체력 수학모형 정립을 위한 모형시험 방안 연구)

  • Yoon, Hyeon-Kyu;Kim, Sun-Young
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.42 no.2 s.140
    • /
    • pp.98-104
    • /
    • 2005
  • The mathematical models of hydrodynamic force and moment acting on a ship at low speed range should be established differently from the ones at nominal cruising speed range since a ship moves with large drift angle or rotates in a stationary position. We modified widely used Yoshimura's cross flow model in order to apply the system identification method to estimate parameters in the model. The apparatus and the procedure of free running model test were suggested so that the parameters in the model be estimated. The validity of our proposing modified model and test procedure was confirmed by comparison with the results of simulated model test.

A Comparison of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Network for Time Series Prediction (자기회귀누적이동평균모형과 신경망모형을 이용한 시계열예측의 비교)

  • Yoon, YeoChang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
    • /
    • 2011.11a
    • /
    • pp.1516-1519
    • /
    • 2011
  • 예측에 필요한 중요한 자료에는 비선형 자료와 시계열과 같은 선형 자료 등이 있다. 이들 자료는 그 함축적인 관계가 매우 복잡하여 전통적인 통계분석 도구로 식별하는데 어려움이 많다. 신경망 분석은 비모수적 문제나 비선형 곡선 적합능력의 우수성 때문에 현실세계에서의 고유한 복잡성을 다루는 많은 경제 응용 분야에서 널리 이용되고 있다. 신경망은 또한 경제 시계열자료의 예측분야에서도 여러 연구에서 훌륭한 도구로서 적용되고 있다. 전통적으로 우리나라에서 시계열자료의 예측은 선형 자료적 분석을 중심으로 하는 분석도구인 자기회귀누적이동평균(ARIMA)모형을 이용한 시계열분석이 일반적이다. 이 연구에서는 신경망과 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 한국의 주가변동 자료 및 자동차등록 현황 자료등과 같은 시계열자료를 이용한 예측결과를 비교한다. 연구의 결과는 신경망을 이용한 예측 방법들이 ARIMA 예측 결과보다 통계적으로 작은 오차를 주는 보다 효율적인 방법임을 보여주고 있다.

An Analysis of Accessibility to Hydrogen Charging Stations in Seoul Based on Location-Allocation Models (입지배분모형 기반의 서울시 수소충전소 접근성 분석)

  • Sang-Gyoon Kim;Jong-Seok Won;Yong-Beom Pyeon;Min-Kyung Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.339-350
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study analyzes accessibility of 10 hydrogen charging stations in Seoul and identifies areas that were difficult to access. The purpose is to re-analyze accessibility by adding a new location in terms of equity and safety of location placement, and then draw implications by comparing the improvement effects. Method: By applying the location-allocation model and the service area model based on network analysis of the ArcGIS program, areas with weak access were identified. The location selection method applied the 'Minimize Facilities' method in consideration of the need for rapid arrival to insufficient hydrogen charging stations. The limit distance for arrival within a specific time was analyzed by applying the average vehicle traffic speed(23.1km/h, Seoul Open Data Square) in 2022 to three categories: 3,850m(10minutes), 5,775m(15minutes), 7,700m(20minutes). In order to minimize conflicts over the installation of hydrogen charging stations, special standards of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy applied to derive candidate sites for additional installation of hydrogen charging stations among existing gas stations and LPG/CNG charging stations. Result: As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that accessibility was significantly improved by installing 5 new hydrogen charging stations at relatively safe gas stations and LPG/CNG charging stations in areas where access to the existing 10 hydrogen charging stations is weak within 20 minutes. Nevertheless, it was found that there are still areas where access remains difficult. Conclusion: The location allocation model is used to identify areas where access to hydrogen charging stations is difficult and prioritize installation, decision-making to select locations for hydrogen charging stations based on scientific evidence can be supported.

Parameter Identifications of Roll Maneuvering Coefficients Based on Sea Trial Data (해상 실측 자료를 이용한 횡동요 조종 계수 식별)

  • C.K. Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.29-37
    • /
    • 1998
  • Linear equations of motion for submersibles are one of the rest important design parameters, which are used as a governing equation for the shape design and the controller design. But, the estimated maneuvering coefficients in equations of motion by using empirical formulae, theoretical calculations or model tests might have some errors. Therefore the maneuvering coefficients should be verified from sea trial test. In this study, parallel extended Kalman filter method, Nelder & Mead Simplex method and genetic algorithm were applied to the parameter identification of roll maneuvering coefficients based on sea trial data. As a result, it was verified that Nelder & Mead Simplex method gave the most satisfactory results for the mathmatical models and the sea trial data used in this study.

  • PDF

A Method to Improve the Risk Assessment in the Defense Quality Assurance Using AHP (AHP를 활용한 국방 품질보증 위험도 평가 개선 방안)

  • Lee, Nack-Hyung;Lee, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.31-42
    • /
    • 2007
  • While Defense Agency fur Technology and Quality(DTaQ) has been utilized a risk assessment method as a quality assurance activity for defense goods since 1999, a risk assessment method is known to be ineffective to identify defective items. The objective of this study is to propose the new evaluation method, that adjusts a relative priority of evaluation elements using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). Newly evaluated scores have been applied to the risk assessment result of 2005 defective items to test a validity of the new evaluation model. The new model is capable to identify more high and medium risk-level items than the current method. The company risk-level gets more scores than the item risk-level in the new model.

A Mixture Model in SBDC Contingent Valuation (CVM모형에서의 영의 응답자료 처리 - 혼합모형을 이용하여 -)

  • Cho, Seung-Kuk;Kwak, Seung-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
    • /
    • v.12 no.3
    • /
    • pp.453-467
    • /
    • 2003
  • Approximating a WTP distribution of the conservation for Hallyue Marine National Park is complicated by zero observations in the sample. To deal with the zero observations, a mixture model is considered to allow a point mass at zero. The model is empirically verified for the data. The conventional model and a spike model are also considered for comparison. Our results portrays the usefulness of the mixture model to analyze SBDC data with zero observations.

  • PDF

Development of Social Entrepreneurship Multidimensional Model and Framework: Focusing on the Cooperation Orientation of Social Enterprises (사회적기업가정신 다차원 모형 및 프레임워크: 사회적기업의 협력지향성을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Han Jun;Sung, Chang Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.18 no.2
    • /
    • pp.1-20
    • /
    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the unique entrepreneurial behavioral attributes of social enterprises that are distinct from for-profit enterprises at the organizational level, derive a social entrepreneurship model that reflects the unique characteristics of social enterprises as strategic decision-making and organizational behavioral tendencies. In order to effectively achieve the purpose of this study, previous studies were reviewed, and qualitative studies were conducted using the grounded theory method based on this. In this study, social entrepreneurship was identified as five sub-factors through a series of analysis processes, and 'Social value orientation; Innovativeness; Pro-activeness; Risk taking; Cooperation orientation' was newly proposed. It also proposed a new social entrepreneurship framework that integrates and explains the multidimensional model of social entrepreneurship by reviewing and connecting the relationships between each sub-factor of the research model. The 'social entrepreneurship framework' classified the social entrepreneurship model into 'pro-social motivation', 'pro-social behavior', and 'entrepreneurial behavior' attributes and explained them by linking them with each sub-factor that constitutes social entrepreneurship. The most remarkable difference between this study and previous studies is that it identified and added 'Cooperation orientation' as a sub-factor constituting social entrepreneurship from the organizational-level behavioral point of view. Through this study, 'Cooperation orientation' was identified as a major behavioral tendency for social enterprises to materialize pro-social motivation, strengthen the economic foundation of business activities, and improve the efficiency of business operations. 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency that strengthens the legitimacy of business activities between pro-social motivation and profit-seeking of social enterprises, improves the performance of social value creation activities, and overcomes the difficulties of resource constraints through cooperation with the outside and improves operational efficiency. In addition, it was confirmed that 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency of social enterprises that is manifested simultaneously in social value-oriented activities and entrepreneurial activities pursuing profit. The 'Cooperation orientation' newly identified in the study supplements the previous research, increases the explanatory power of the theory of social entrepreneurship, and provides the basis for theoretical expansion to subsequent researchers.

  • PDF