• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델모수

Search Result 206, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

열전모듈의 가속수명시험과 고장분석을 통한 신뢰도 예측

  • 최형석;이태원;이영호;이명현;서원선
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
    • /
    • 2004.07a
    • /
    • pp.123-128
    • /
    • 2004
  • 본 논문에서는 가속 수명 시험을 통하여 열전소자의 수명 분포, 모수 등을 규명하였으며 고장 분석을 통하여 열전 소자의 수명 증가를 위한 대책 방안을 논의하였다. 가속 수명 시험 결과 열전 소자는 형상 모수 3,6인 Weibull 분포를 따름을 알 수 있었다. 열전 소자가 반도체 부품임에도 불구하고 형상 모수가 큰 이유는 반복 Bending에 의한 피로 파괴가 발생하기 때문임을 고장 분석을 통하여 규명하였다. 위의 고장 메커니즘을 설명할 수 있는 가속 모델식은 Coffin-Manson식으로 설명되어 질 수 있으며 가속수명시험 결과 재료 상수는 1.8임을 알 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Continuous Speech Recognition based on Parmetric Trajectory Segmental HMM (모수적 궤적 기반의 분절 HMM을 이용한 연속 음성 인식)

  • 윤영선;오영환
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.35-44
    • /
    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose a new trajectory model for characterizing segmental features and their interaction based upon a general framework of hidden Markov models. Each segment, a sequence of vectors, is represented by a trajectory of observed sequences. This trajectory is obtained by applying a new design matrix which includes transitional information on contiguous frames, and is characterized as a polynomial regression function. To apply the trajectory to the segmental HMM, the frame features are replaced with the trajectory of a given segment. We also propose the likelihood of a given segment and the estimation of trajectory parameters. The obervation probability of a given segment is represented as the relation between the segment likelihood and the estimation error of the trajectories. The estimation error of a trajectory is considered as the weight of the likelihood of a given segment in a state. This weight represents the probability of how well the corresponding trajectory characterize the segment. The proposed model can be regarded as a generalization of a conventional HMM and a parametric trajectory model. The experimental results are reported on the TIMIT corpus and performance is show to improve significantly over that of the conventional HMM.

  • PDF

Investigating the Effect of Planting Density on Parameter Estimation of Stand Growth Models (식재(植栽) 밀도(密度)가 임분생장(林分生長)모델 모수(母數) 추정(推定)에 미치는 효과(效果)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Li, Fengri;Kwon, Soonduk;Chung, Joosang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.88 no.4
    • /
    • pp.446-453
    • /
    • 1999
  • In this study, the effects of stand planting density on parameters of stand height and basal area growth models were investigated. We used the Korf equation as the base model in estimating the parameters of the growth models for cryptomeria plantation forest stands. Then, in order to investigate the effects of the change in plantation density on the parameter estimates, the "extra sums of square" principle, which provided a reasonable statistical procedure for a performance test, was used. The results of the test coincide with the understandings that stand height growth is not affected significantly by the planting density and the growth curves of stand basal area approaches a common asymptote regardless of the stand density for a given site. However, the shapes of the basal area growth curves were affected significantly by the planting density. Based on the results of the test, we developed a basal area growth model to account for the effects of initial planting density in cryptomeria plantation forest stands.

  • PDF

Application of GIS-based Probabilistic Empirical and Parametric Models for Landslide Susceptibility Analysis (산사태 취약성 분석을 위한 GIS 기반 확률론적 추정 모델과 모수적 모델의 적용)

  • Park, No-Wook;Chi, Kwang-Hoon;Chung, Chang-Jo F.;Kwon, Byung-Doo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.38 no.1
    • /
    • pp.45-55
    • /
    • 2005
  • Traditional GIS-based probabilistic spatial data integration models for landslide susceptibility analysis have failed to provide the theoretical backgrounds and effective methods for integration of different types of spatial data such as categorical and continuous data. This paper applies two spatial data integration models including non-parametric empirical estimation and parametric predictive discriminant analysis models that can directly use the original continuous data within a likelihood ratio framework. Similarity rates and a prediction rate curve are computed to quantitatively compare those two models. To illustrate the proposed models, two case studies from the Jangheung and Boeun areas were carried out and analyzed. As a result of the Jangheung case study, two models showed similar prediction capabilities. On the other hand, in the Boeun area, the parametric predictive discriminant analysis model showed the better prediction capability than that from the non-parametric empirical estimation model. In conclusion, the proposed models could effectively integrate the continuous data for landslide susceptibility analysis and more case studies should be carried out to support the results from the case studies, since each model has a distinctive feature in continuous data representation.

A Software Reliability Growth Model Based on Gompertz Growth Curve (Gompertz 성장곡선 기반 소프트웨어 신뢰성 성장 모델)

  • Park Seok-Gyu;Lee Sang-Un
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
    • /
    • v.11D no.7 s.96
    • /
    • pp.1451-1458
    • /
    • 2004
  • Current software reliability growth models based on Gompertz growth curve are all logarithmic type. Software reliability growth models based on logarithmic type Gompertz growth curve has difficulties in parameter estimation. Therefore this paper proposes a software reliability growth model based on the logistic type Gompertz growth curie. Its usefulness is empirically verified by analyzing the failure data sets obtained from 13 different software projects. The parameters of model are estimated by linear regression through variable transformation or Virene's method. The proposed model is compared with respect to the average relative prediction error criterion. Experimental results show that the pro-posed model performs better the models based on the logarithmic type Gompertz growth curve.

Pattern-Mixture Model of the Cox Proportional Hazards Model with Missing Binary Covariates (결측이 있는 이산형 공변량에 대한 Cox비례위험모형의 패턴-혼합 모델)

  • Youk, Tae-Mi;Song, Ju-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.279-291
    • /
    • 2012
  • When fitting a Cox proportional hazards model with missing covariates, it is inefficient to exclude observations with missing values in the analysis. Furthermore, if the missing-data mechanism is not Missing Completely At Random(MCAR), it may lead to biased parameter estimation. Many approaches have been suggested to handle the Cox proportional hazards model when covariates are sometimes missing, but they are based on the selection model. This paper suggest an approach to handle Cox proportional hazards model with missing covariates by using the pattern-mixture model (Little, 1993). The pattern-mixture model is expressed by the joint distribution of survival time and the missing-data mechanism. In the pattern-mixture model, many models can be considered by setting up various restrictions, and different results under various restrictions indicate the sensitivity of the model due to missing covariates. A simulation study was conducted to show the sensitivity of parameter estimation under different restrictions in a pattern-mixture model. The proposed approach was also applied to mouse leukemia data.

Decision Tree State Tying Modeling Using Parameter Estimation of Bayesian Method (Bayesian 기법의 모수 추정을 이용한 결정트리 상태 공유 모델링)

  • Oh, SangYeob
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.243-248
    • /
    • 2015
  • Recognition model is not defined when you configure a model, Been added to the model after model building awareness, Model a model of the clustering due to lack of recognition models are generated by modeling is causes the degradation of the recognition rate. In order to improve decision tree state tying modeling using parameter estimation of Bayesian method. The parameter estimation method is proposed Bayesian method to navigate through the model from the results of the decision tree based on the tying state according to the maximum probability method to determine the recognition model. According to our experiments on the simulation data generated by adding noise to clean speech, the proposed clustering method error rate reduction of 1.29% compared with baseline model, which is slightly better performance than the existing approach.

Hyper-Geometric Distribution Software Reliability Growth Model : Generalizatio, Estimation and Prediction (초기하분포 소프트웨어 신뢰성 성장 모델 : 일반화, 추정과 예측)

  • Park, Jung-Yang;Yu, Chang-Yeol;Park, Jae-Hong
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
    • /
    • v.6 no.9
    • /
    • pp.2343-2349
    • /
    • 1999
  • The hyper-geometric distribution software reliability growth model (HGDM) was recently developed and successfully applied to real data sets. The HGDM considers the sensitivity factor as a parameter to be estimated. In order to reflect the random behavior of the test-and-debug process, this paper generalizes the HGDM by assuming that the sensitivity factor is a binomial random variable. Such a generalization enables us to easily understand the statistical characteristics of the HGDM. It is shown that the least squares method produces the identical results for both the HGDM and the generalized HGDM. Methods for computing the maximum likelihood estimates and predicting the future outcomes are also presented.

  • PDF

지하수 오염 분포도 작성에서 정규크리깅과 지시크리깅 기법의 상호 보완성 연구

  • 김태형;정상용;강동환;김민철;서상기
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment Conference
    • /
    • 2004.04a
    • /
    • pp.477-481
    • /
    • 2004
  • 지하수 수질자료의 분포가 광역적이고 자료의 수가 많은 지역과 자료의 분포가 국부적이고 갯수가 적은 지역을 선정하여, 모수적 통계기법인 정규크리깅과 비모수적 통계기법인 지시크리깅을 동시에 적용하였다. 베리오그램 분석은 각 수질자료의 원시 자료와 제한값을 적용하여 제한값 보다 낮거나 동일하면 '1' 의 값으로, 제한값 보다 높으면 '0' 의 값으로 변환된 자료에 대해 실시하였는데, 원시 염소이온 성분은 선형 모델이 선정되었으며, 비소 성분은 지수형 모델이 가장 적합한 것으로 선정되었다. 변환된 염소이온 성분과 비소 성분은 모두 구상형 모델이 가장 적합한 것으로 선정되었다. 정규크리깅과 지시크리깅 기법을 이용하여 지하수 오염 분포도를 작성하여 비교해 본 결과, 정규크리깅 기법은 연구지역의 자료 분포, 갯수와 범위의 영향을 크게 받는 것으로 나타났고, 지시크리깅 기법은 연구지역의 자료 분포와 특히 제한값에 따라 변환된 자료의 갯수의 영향을 크게 받는 것으로 나타났다. 정량적으로 나타낼 수 정규크리깅 기법과 정성적으로 나타낼 수 있는 지시크리깅 기법을 같이 적용한다면 지하수 오염 현황을 효과적으로 파악할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

  • PDF