• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델검증시스템

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Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.

Scalable Collaborative Filtering Technique based on Adaptive Clustering (적응형 군집화 기반 확장 용이한 협업 필터링 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;Hong, Min-Sung;Lee, Won-Jin;Lee, Jae-Dong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.73-92
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    • 2014
  • An Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique was proposed to solve the fundamental problems of collaborative filtering, such as cold-start problems, scalability problems and data sparsity problems. Previous collaborative filtering techniques were carried out according to the recommendations based on the predicted preference of the user to a particular item using a similar item subset and a similar user subset composed based on the preference of users to items. For this reason, if the density of the user preference matrix is low, the reliability of the recommendation system will decrease rapidly. Therefore, the difficulty of creating a similar item subset and similar user subset will be increased. In addition, as the scale of service increases, the time needed to create a similar item subset and similar user subset increases geometrically, and the response time of the recommendation system is then increased. To solve these problems, this paper suggests a collaborative filtering technique that adapts a condition actively to the model and adopts the concepts of a context-based filtering technique. This technique consists of four major methodologies. First, items are made, the users are clustered according their feature vectors, and an inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster is then assumed. According to this method, the run-time for creating a similar item subset or user subset can be economized, the reliability of a recommendation system can be made higher than that using only the user preference information for creating a similar item subset or similar user subset, and the cold start problem can be partially solved. Second, recommendations are made using the prior composed item and user clusters and inter-cluster preference between each item cluster and user cluster. In this phase, a list of items is made for users by examining the item clusters in the order of the size of the inter-cluster preference of the user cluster, in which the user belongs, and selecting and ranking the items according to the predicted or recorded user preference information. Using this method, the creation of a recommendation model phase bears the highest load of the recommendation system, and it minimizes the load of the recommendation system in run-time. Therefore, the scalability problem and large scale recommendation system can be performed with collaborative filtering, which is highly reliable. Third, the missing user preference information is predicted using the item and user clusters. Using this method, the problem caused by the low density of the user preference matrix can be mitigated. Existing studies on this used an item-based prediction or user-based prediction. In this paper, Hao Ji's idea, which uses both an item-based prediction and user-based prediction, was improved. The reliability of the recommendation service can be improved by combining the predictive values of both techniques by applying the condition of the recommendation model. By predicting the user preference based on the item or user clusters, the time required to predict the user preference can be reduced, and missing user preference in run-time can be predicted. Fourth, the item and user feature vector can be made to learn the following input of the user feedback. This phase applied normalized user feedback to the item and user feature vector. This method can mitigate the problems caused by the use of the concepts of context-based filtering, such as the item and user feature vector based on the user profile and item properties. The problems with using the item and user feature vector are due to the limitation of quantifying the qualitative features of the items and users. Therefore, the elements of the user and item feature vectors are made to match one to one, and if user feedback to a particular item is obtained, it will be applied to the feature vector using the opposite one. Verification of this method was accomplished by comparing the performance with existing hybrid filtering techniques. Two methods were used for verification: MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and response time. Using MAE, this technique was confirmed to improve the reliability of the recommendation system. Using the response time, this technique was found to be suitable for a large scaled recommendation system. This paper suggested an Adaptive Clustering-based Collaborative Filtering Technique with high reliability and low time complexity, but it had some limitations. This technique focused on reducing the time complexity. Hence, an improvement in reliability was not expected. The next topic will be to improve this technique by rule-based filtering.

The Effect of Recombinant Human Epidermal Growth Factor on Cisplatin and Radiotherapy Induced Oral Mucositis in Mice (마우스에서 Cisplatin과 방사선조사로 유발된 구내염에 대한 재조합 표피성장인자의 효과)

  • Na, Jae-Boem;Kim, Hye-Jung;Chai, Gyu-Young;Lee, Sang-Wook;Lee, Kang-Kyoo;Chang, Ki-Churl;Choi, Byung-Ock;Jang, Hong-Seok;Jeong, Bea-Keon;Kang, Ki-Mun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.242-248
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: To study the effect of recombinant human epidermal growth factor (rhEGF) on oral mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy in a mouse model. Materials and Methods: Twenty-four ICR mice were divided into three groups-the normal control group, the no rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin and radiation) and the rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin, radiation and rhEGF). A model of mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy was established by injecting mice with cisplatin (10 mg/kg) on day 1 and with radiation exposure (5 Gy/day) to the head and neck on days $1{\sim}5$. rhEGF was administered subcutaneously on days -1 to 0 (1 mg/kg/day) and on days 3 to 5 (1 mg/kg/day). Evaluation included body weight, oral intake, and histology. Results: For the comparison of the change of body weight between the rhEGF group and the no rhEGF group, a statistically significant difference was observed in the rhEGF group for the 5 days after day 3 of. the experiment. The rhEGF group and no rhEGF group had reduced food intake until day 5 of the experiment, and then the mice demonstrated increased food intake after day 13 of the of experiment. When the histological examination was conducted on day 7 after treatment with cisplatin and radiation, the rhEGF group showed a focal cellular reaction in the epidermal layer of the mucosa, while the no rhEGF group did not show inflammation of the oral mucosa. Conclusion: These findings suggest that rhEGF has a potential to reduce the oral mucositis burden in mice after treatment with cisplatin and radiation. The optimal dose, number and timing of the administration of rhEGF require further investigation.

Effects of firm strategies on customer acquisition of Software as a Service (SaaS) providers: A mediating and moderating role of SaaS technology maturity (SaaS 기업의 차별화 및 가격전략이 고객획득성과에 미치는 영향: SaaS 기술성숙도 수준의 매개효과 및 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Chae, SeongWook;Park, Sungbum
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.151-171
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    • 2014
  • Firms today have sought management effectiveness and efficiency utilizing information technologies (IT). Numerous firms are outsourcing specific information systems functions to cope with their short of information resources or IT experts, or to reduce their capital cost. Recently, Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) as a new type of information system has become one of the powerful outsourcing alternatives. SaaS is software deployed as a hosted and accessed over the internet. It is regarded as the idea of on-demand, pay-per-use, and utility computing and is now being applied to support the core competencies of clients in areas ranging from the individual productivity area to the vertical industry and e-commerce area. In this study, therefore, we seek to quantify the value that SaaS has on business performance by examining the relationships among firm strategies, SaaS technology maturity, and business performance of SaaS providers. We begin by drawing from prior literature on SaaS, technology maturity and firm strategy. SaaS technology maturity is classified into three different phases such as application service providing (ASP), Web-native application, and Web-service application. Firm strategies are manipulated by the low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Finally, we considered customer acquisition as a business performance. In this sense, specific objectives of this study are as follows. First, we examine the relationships between customer acquisition performance and both low-cost strategy and differentiation strategy of SaaS providers. Secondly, we investigate the mediating and moderating effects of SaaS technology maturity on those relationships. For this purpose, study collects data from the SaaS providers, and their line of applications registered in the database in CNK (Commerce net Korea) in Korea using a questionnaire method by the professional research institution. The unit of analysis in this study is the SBUs (strategic business unit) in the software provider. A total of 199 SBUs is used for analyzing and testing our hypotheses. With regards to the measurement of firm strategy, we take three measurement items for differentiation strategy such as the application uniqueness (referring an application aims to differentiate within just one or a small number of target industry), supply channel diversification (regarding whether SaaS vendor had diversified supply chain) as well as the number of specialized expertise and take two items for low cost strategy like subscription fee and initial set-up fee. We employ a hierarchical regression analysis technique for testing moderation effects of SaaS technology maturity and follow the Baron and Kenny's procedure for determining if firm strategies affect customer acquisition through technology maturity. Empirical results revealed that, firstly, when differentiation strategy is applied to attain business performance like customer acquisition, the effects of the strategy is moderated by the technology maturity level of SaaS providers. In other words, securing higher level of SaaS technology maturity is essential for higher business performance. For instance, given that firms implement application uniqueness or a distribution channel diversification as a differentiation strategy, they can acquire more customers when their level of SaaS technology maturity is higher rather than lower. Secondly, results indicate that pursuing differentiation strategy or low cost strategy effectively works for SaaS providers' obtaining customer, which means that continuously differentiating their service from others or making their service fee (subscription fee or initial set-up fee) lower are helpful for their business success in terms of acquiring their customers. Lastly, results show that the level of SaaS technology maturity mediates the relationships between low cost strategy and customer acquisition. That is, based on our research design, customers usually perceive the real value of the low subscription fee or initial set-up fee only through the SaaS service provide by vender and, in turn, this will affect their decision making whether subscribe or not.

A Study on Market Size Estimation Method by Product Group Using Word2Vec Algorithm (Word2Vec을 활용한 제품군별 시장규모 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Ye Lim;Kim, Ji Hui;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2020
  • With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, various techniques have been developed to extract meaningful information from unstructured text data which constitutes a large portion of big data. Over the past decades, text mining technologies have been utilized in various industries for practical applications. In the field of business intelligence, it has been employed to discover new market and/or technology opportunities and support rational decision making of business participants. The market information such as market size, market growth rate, and market share is essential for setting companies' business strategies. There has been a continuous demand in various fields for specific product level-market information. However, the information has been generally provided at industry level or broad categories based on classification standards, making it difficult to obtain specific and proper information. In this regard, we propose a new methodology that can estimate the market sizes of product groups at more detailed levels than that of previously offered. We applied Word2Vec algorithm, a neural network based semantic word embedding model, to enable automatic market size estimation from individual companies' product information in a bottom-up manner. The overall process is as follows: First, the data related to product information is collected, refined, and restructured into suitable form for applying Word2Vec model. Next, the preprocessed data is embedded into vector space by Word2Vec and then the product groups are derived by extracting similar products names based on cosine similarity calculation. Finally, the sales data on the extracted products is summated to estimate the market size of the product groups. As an experimental data, text data of product names from Statistics Korea's microdata (345,103 cases) were mapped in multidimensional vector space by Word2Vec training. We performed parameters optimization for training and then applied vector dimension of 300 and window size of 15 as optimized parameters for further experiments. We employed index words of Korean Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) as a product name dataset to more efficiently cluster product groups. The product names which are similar to KSIC indexes were extracted based on cosine similarity. The market size of extracted products as one product category was calculated from individual companies' sales data. The market sizes of 11,654 specific product lines were automatically estimated by the proposed model. For the performance verification, the results were compared with actual market size of some items. The Pearson's correlation coefficient was 0.513. Our approach has several advantages differing from the previous studies. First, text mining and machine learning techniques were applied for the first time on market size estimation, overcoming the limitations of traditional sampling based- or multiple assumption required-methods. In addition, the level of market category can be easily and efficiently adjusted according to the purpose of information use by changing cosine similarity threshold. Furthermore, it has a high potential of practical applications since it can resolve unmet needs for detailed market size information in public and private sectors. Specifically, it can be utilized in technology evaluation and technology commercialization support program conducted by governmental institutions, as well as business strategies consulting and market analysis report publishing by private firms. The limitation of our study is that the presented model needs to be improved in terms of accuracy and reliability. The semantic-based word embedding module can be advanced by giving a proper order in the preprocessed dataset or by combining another algorithm such as Jaccard similarity with Word2Vec. Also, the methods of product group clustering can be changed to other types of unsupervised machine learning algorithm. Our group is currently working on subsequent studies and we expect that it can further improve the performance of the conceptually proposed basic model in this study.

Seismic Design of Columns in Inverted V-braced Steel Frames Considering Brace Buckling (가새좌굴을 고려한 역 V형 가새골조의 기둥부재 내진설계법)

  • Cho, Chun-Hee;Kim, Jung-Jae;Lee, Cheol-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2010
  • According to the capacity design concept which forms the basis of the current steel seismic codes, the braces in concentrically braced frames (CBFs) should dissipate seismic energy through cyclic tension yielding and cyclic compression buckling while the beams and the columns should remain elastic. Brace buckling in inverted V-braced frames induces unbalanced vertical forces which, in turn, impose the additional beam moments and column axial forces. However, due to difficulty in predicting the location of buckling stories, the most conservative approach implied in the design code is to estimate the column axial forces by adding all the unbalanced vertical forces in the upper stories. One alternative approach, less conservative and recommended by the current code, is to estimate the column axial forces based on the amplified seismic load expected at the mechanism-level response. Both are either too conservative or lacking technical foundation. In this paper, three combination rules for a rational estimation of the column axial forces were proposed. The idea central to the three methods is to detect the stories of high buckling potential based on pushover analysis and dynamic behavior. The unbalanced vertical forces in the stories detected as high buckling potential are summed in a linear manner while those in other stories are combined by following the SRSS(square root of sum of squares) rule. The accuracy and design advantage of the three methods were validated by comparing extensive inelastic dynamic analysis results. The mode-shape based method(MSBM), which is both simple and accurate, is recommended as the method of choice for practicing engineers among the three.

Target Word Selection Disambiguation using Untagged Text Data in English-Korean Machine Translation (영한 기계 번역에서 미가공 텍스트 데이터를 이용한 대역어 선택 중의성 해소)

  • Kim Yu-Seop;Chang Jeong-Ho
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.11B no.6
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    • pp.749-758
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a new method utilizing only raw corpus without additional human effort for disambiguation of target word selection in English-Korean machine translation. We use two data-driven techniques; one is the Latent Semantic Analysis(LSA) and the other the Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis(PLSA). These two techniques can represent complex semantic structures in given contexts like text passages. We construct linguistic semantic knowledge by using the two techniques and use the knowledge for target word selection in English-Korean machine translation. For target word selection, we utilize a grammatical relationship stored in a dictionary. We use k- nearest neighbor learning algorithm for the resolution of data sparseness Problem in target word selection and estimate the distance between instances based on these models. In experiments, we use TREC data of AP news for construction of latent semantic space and Wail Street Journal corpus for evaluation of target word selection. Through the Latent Semantic Analysis methods, the accuracy of target word selection has improved over 10% and PLSA has showed better accuracy than LSA method. finally we have showed the relatedness between the accuracy and two important factors ; one is dimensionality of latent space and k value of k-NT learning by using correlation calculation.

Integrity evaluation of grouting in umbrella arch methods by using guided ultrasonic waves (유도초음파를 이용한 강관보강다단 그라우팅의 건전도 평가)

  • Hong, Young-Ho;Yu, Jung-Doung;Byun, Yong-Hoon;Jang, Hyun-Ick;You, Byung-Chul;Lee, Jong-Sub
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.187-199
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    • 2013
  • Umbrella arch method (UAM) used for improving the stability of the tunnel ground condition has been widely applied in the tunnel construction projects due to the advantage of obtaining both reinforcement and waterproof. The purpose of this study is to develop the evaluation technique of the integrity of bore-hole in UAM by using a non-destructive test and to evaluate the possibility of being applied to the field. In order to investigate the variations of frequency depending on grouted length, the specimens with different grouted ratios are made in the two constraint conditions (free boundary condition and embedded condition). The hammer impact reflection method in which excitation and reception occur simultaneously at the head of pipe was used. The guided waves generated by hitting a pipe with a hammer were reflected at the tip and returned to the head, and the signals were received by an acoustic emission (AE) sensor installed at the head. For the laboratory experiments, the specimens were prepared with different grouted ratios (25 %, 50 %, 75 %, 100 %). In addition, field tests were performed for the application of the evaluation technique. Fast Fourier transform and wavelet transform were applied to analyze the measured waves. The experimental studies show that grouted ratio has little effects on the velocities of guided waves. Main frequencies of reflected waves tend to decrease with an increase in the grouted length in the time-frequency domain. This study suggests that the non-destructive tests using guided ultrasonic waves be effective to evaluate the bore-hole integrity of the UAM in the field.

A Study on the Optimum Design of Multiple Screw Type Dryer for Treatment of Sewage Sludge (하수슬러지 처리를 위한 다축 스크류 난류 접촉식 건조기의 최적 설계 연구)

  • Na, En-Soo;Shin, Sung-Soo;Shin, Mi-Soo;Jang, Dong-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.223-231
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate basically the mechanism of heat transfer by the resolution of complex fluid flow inside a sophisticated designed screw dryer for the treatment of sewage sludge by using numerical analysis and experimental study. By doing this, the result was quite helpful to obtain the design criteria for enhancing drying efficiency, thereby achieving the optimal design of a multiple screw type dryer for treating inorganic and organic sludge wastes. One notable design feature of the dryer was to bypass a certain of fraction of the hot combustion gases into the bottom of the screw cylinder, by the fluid flow induction, across the delicately designed holes on the screw surface to agitate internally the sticky sludges. This offers many benefits not only in the enhancement of thermal efficiency even for the high viscosity material but also greater flexibility in the application of system design and operation. However, one careful precaution was made in operation in that when distributing the hot flue gas over the lump of sludge for internal agitation not to make any pore blocking and to avoid too much pressure drop caused by inertial resistance across the lump of sludge. The optimal retention time for rotating the screw at 1 rpm in order to treat 200 kg/hr of sewage sludge was determined empirically about 100 minutes. The corresponding optimal heat source was found to be 150,000 kcal/hr. A series of numerical calculation is performed to resolve flow characteristics in order to assist in the system design as function of important system and operational variables. The numerical calculation is successfully evaluated against experimental temperature profile and flow field characteristics. In general, the calculation results are physically reasonable and consistent in parametric study. In further studies, more quantitative data analyses such as pressure drop across the type and loading of drying sludge will be made for the system evaluation in experiment and calculation.

Improving Work Adjustment Skills in Students with Mental Retardation Using Hydroponics Program (수경재배 프로그램을 통한 지적 장애학생의 직업적응력 증진)

  • Joo, Byung-Sik;Park, Sin-Ae;Son, Ki-Cheol
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.586-595
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to determine the effects of horticultural therapy (HT) program using hydroponics on work adjustment skills of students with mental retardation. Based on the critical role transitional model and special education curriculum for agriculture, especially hydroponics, HT program (total 22 sessions) using hydroponics procedure for Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L. 'Asia Heuk Romaine') was developed. Fourteen (10 males, 4 females) graded $1^{st}$ to $2^{nd}$ with intellectual disabilities were recruited from a special education class in a high school located in Inchon, Korea and then a special farm for hydroponics in Inchon, Korea was offered for the HT program. The students with intellectual disabilities participated in the HT program for 4-month (from September to December of 2011, twice a week, approximately 60 minutes per session). Before and after the HT program, the McCarron assessment neuromuscular development, emotional behavioral checklist, interpersonal negotiation strategies, and KEPAD picture vocational interest test were performed by the teachers and horticultural therapists. As the results, the students significantly improved motor performance (p = 0.002), emotional behavioral strategies (p = 0.00), and interpersonal negotiation strategies (p = 0.05). However, no significant difference between before and after the HT program for vocational interest was observed. In conclusion, the HT program using hydroponics, consists of simple and easy tasks so that it would be applicable for the students with intellectual disabilities positively affected to work adjustment skills by improving the motor performance, emotional behavioral strategies, and interpersonal negotiation strategies. Additionally, HT programs using hydroponics with various kinds of vegetables are required to develop and to apply in practical settings for improving work adjustment skills.