• KIPS Transactions on Computer and Communication Systems
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• v.6 no.7
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• pp.297-306
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• 2017

Citizens want more accurate forecast information using Bus Information System. However, most bus information systems that use an average based short-term prediction algorithm include many errors because they do not consider the effects of the traffic flow, signal period, and halting time. In this paper, we try to improve the precision of forecast information by analyzing the influencing factors of the error, thereby making the convenience of the citizens. We analyzed the influence factors of the error using BIS data. It is shown in the analyzed data that the effects of the time characteristics and geographical conditions are mixed, and that effects on halting time and passes speed is different. Therefore, the halt time is constructed using Generalized Additive Model with explanatory variable such as hour, GPS coordinate and number of routes, and we used Hidden Markov Model to construct a pattern considering the influence of traffic flow on the unit section. As a result of the pattern construction, accurate real-time forecasting and long-term prediction of route travel time were possible. Finally, it is shown that this model is suitable for travel time prediction through statistical test between observed data and predicted data. As a result of this paper, we can provide more precise forecast information to the citizens, and we think that long-term forecasting can play an important role in decision making such as route scheduling.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.830-839
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• 2020

As a popular mathematical framework for modeling decision making, Markov decision process (MDP) has been widely used to solve problem in many engineering fields. MDP consists of a set of discrete states, a finite set of actions, and rewards received after reaching a new state by taking action from the previous state. The objective of MDP is to find an optimal policy, that is, to find the best action to be taken in each state to maximize the expected discounted reward of policy (EDR). In practice, MDP is typically unknown, so simulation-based policy improvement (SBPI), which improves a given base policy sequentially by selecting the best action in each state depending on rewards observed via simulation, can be a practical way to find the optimal policy. However, the efficiency of SBPI is still a concern since many simulation samples are required to precisely estimate EDR for each action in each state. In this paper, we propose a method to select the best action accurately in each state using a small number of simulation samples, thereby improving the efficiency of SBPI. The proposed method accumulates the simulation samples observed in the previous states, so it is possible to precisely estimate EDR even with a small number of samples in the current state. The results of comparative experiments on the existing method demonstrate that the proposed method can improve the efficiency of SBPI.

• Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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• v.29 no.11
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• pp.785-794
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• 2002

Automatic stock trading systems should be able to solve various kinds of optimization problems such as market trend prediction, stock selection, and trading strategies, in a unified framework. But most of the previous trading systems based on supervised learning have a limit in the ultimate performance, because they are not mainly concerned in the integration of those subproblems. This paper proposes a stock trading system, called R-Trader, based on reinforcement teaming, regarding the process of stock price changes as Markov decision process (MDP). Reinforcement learning is suitable for Joint optimization of predictions and trading strategies. R-Trader adopts two popular reinforcement learning algorithms, temporal-difference (TD) and Q, for selecting stocks and optimizing other trading parameters respectively. Technical analysis is also adopted to devise the input features of the system and value functions are approximated by feedforward neural networks. Experimental results on the Korea stock market show that the proposed system outperforms the market average and also a simple trading system trained by supervised learning both in profit and risk management.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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• v.19B no.1
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• pp.31-36
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• 2012

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in recommender systems which provide users with personalized suggestions for products or services. In particular, researches of collaborative filtering analyzing relations between users and items has become more active because of the Netflix Prize competition. This paper presents the reinforcement learning approach for collaborative filtering. By applying reinforcement learning techniques to the movie rating, we discovered the connection between a time sequence of past ratings and current ratings. For this, we first formulated the collaborative filtering problem as a Markov Decision Process. And then we trained the learning model which reflects the connection between the time sequence of past ratings and current ratings using Q-learning. The experimental results indicate that there is a significant effect on current ratings by the time sequence of past ratings.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.58-65
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• 2019

The stability, reliability and efficiency of a smart ship are important issues as the interest in an autonomous ship has recently been high. An automatic collision avoidance system is an essential function of an autonomous ship. This system detects the possibility of collision and automatically takes avoidance actions in consideration of economy and safety. In order to construct an automatic collision avoidance system using reinforcement learning, in this work, the sequential decision problem of ship collision is mathematically formulated through a Markov Decision Process (MDP). A reinforcement learning environment is constructed based on the ship maneuvering equations, and then the three key components (state, action, and reward) of MDP are defined. The state uses parameters of the relationship between own-ship and target-ship, the action is the vertical distance away from the target course, and the reward is defined as a function considering safety and economics. In order to solve the sequential decision problem, the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) algorithm which can express continuous action space and search an optimal action policy is utilized. The collision avoidance system is then tested assuming the $90^{\circ}$intersection encounter situation and yields a satisfactory result.

• Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.1-8
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• 2024

As technology advances, Internet of Things (IoT) technology is rapidly evolving as well. Various protocols, including Message Queuing Telemetry Transport (MQTT), are being used in IoT technology. MQTT, a lightweight messaging protocol, is considered a de-facto standard in the IoT field due to its efficiency in transmitting data even in environments with limited bandwidth and power. In this paper, we propose a method to improve the message transmission method in MQTT 5.0, specifically focusing on the shared subscription feature. The widely used round-robin method in shared subscriptions has the drawback of not considering the current state of the clients. To address this limitation, we propose a method to select the optimal transmission method by considering the current state. We model this problem based on Markov decision process (MDP) and utilize Q-Learning to select the optimal transmission method. Through simulation results, we compare our proposed method with existing methods in various environments and conduct performance analysis. We confirm that our proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of performance and conclude by suggesting future research directions.