• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크특성

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Cash flow Forecasting in International Construction Projects through Categorized Risk Analysis (특성별 리스크 분석을 통한 해외건설공사 현금흐름 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yeom, Sang-Min;Han, Seung-Heon;Kim, Du-Yeon;Nam, Ha-Na;Park, Hee-Dae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.295-300
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    • 2006
  • In this research, risk factors which can raise project cost are identified in the initial stage and picked out through the decision maker's baseline. And also this probable risks are implemented to the project cash flow to estimate the contingency and to build a risk management system in the level of project. The risks that affect the projects profits were classified in two categories in the risk checklist. Firstly, financial risks derived from the external economic conditions for example exchange rate, escalation, interest rates etc. are analyzed through the stochastic methods, Monte-Carlo Simulation. Secondly, the project individual risks which are come from the project characteristics, for example country risk, clime, owner etc., are evaluated using the utility curve of the decision maker. Finally these risk analysis methods are used to forecast the actual project cash flow and final profit.

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Establishment of Risk Database and Development of Risk Classification System for NATM Tunnel (NATM 터널 공정리스크 데이터베이스 구축 및 리스크 분류체계 개발)

  • Kim, Hyunbee;Karunarathne, Batagalle Vinuri;Kim, ByungSoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.32-41
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    • 2024
  • In the construction industry, not only safety accidents, but also various complex risks such as construction delays, cost increases, and environmental pollution occur, and management technologies are needed to solve them. Among them, process risk management, which directly affects the project, lacks related information compared to its importance. This study tried to develop a MATM tunnel process risk classification system to solve the difficulty of risk information retrieval due to the use of different classification systems for each project. Risk collection used existing literature review and experience mining techniques, and DB construction utilized the concept of natural language processing. For the structure of the classification system, the existing WBS structure was adopted in consideration of compatibility of data, and an RBS linked to the work species of the WBS was established. As a result of the research, a risk classification system was completed that easily identifies risks by work type and intuitively reveals risk characteristics and risk factors linked to risks. As a result of verifying the usability of the established classification system, it was found that the classification system was effective as risks and risk factors for each work type were easily identified by user input of keywords. Through this study, it is expected to contribute to preventing an increase in cost and construction period by identifying risks according to work types in advance when planning and designing NATM tunnels and establishing countermeasures suitable for those factors.

A Risk Management Method Using Fuzzy Theory for Early Construction Stage (퍼지이론을 이용한 초기 건설공사의 리스크 관리 방법)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2004
  • This study presents a risk management methodology using fuzzy theory for early construction stage and is focused on risk identification and risk analysis. This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities clearly construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The risk analysis method presented in this study is based on the RBS that has two levels such as upper level and lower level. The risk exposure of lower level risk factors is assessed by fuzzy inference. The weight of risks is estimated by fuzzy measure. Then, the estimated risk exposures and weights are aggregated to assess the risk exposure of upper level risks by Choquet fuzzy integral. The risk exposure of upper level risks determine the priority of risk factors in view of risk management. This study performs case study to validate the proposed method. The result of case study shows that the methodology suggested in this thesis would be utilized well in evaluating risk exposure.

Risk Influencing Factors in Performance of River Disaster Prevention Project (하천재해예방사업의 성과에 미치는 리스크 영향요인)

  • Cho, Jin-Ho;Kim, Byung-Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2020
  • The characteristics of the construction project involved various stakeholders' involvement from the planning stage until completion of the object, which caused the uncertainty to increase. Successful construction projects require risk analysis and appropriate responses. Therefore, this study aimed to confirm the influence of risk management factors on the success of river disaster prevention construction in construction projects and the effect of moderating communication between stakeholders involved in the construction process. The Delphi method was used to derive the risk management factors of the construction process. The survey used a snow ball sampling method. For analysis, SPSS Statistic 20 and SmartPLS 2.0 were used. As a result of the study, the impact of risk management factors on project performance was found to be large in the order of time risk, quality risk, cost risk, safety risk, and construction environment risk. In addition, the impact of the communication moderating effect was large in the order of cost risk, quality risk, construction environment risk, time risk, and safety risk. In this study, it was confirmed that communication between stakeholders related to river disaster prevention work has a moderating effect that changes the ranking of impacts on project performance. This shows the importance of communication in the construction process of river disaster prevention works. This study has important significance in that it identifies the importance of risk management factors and communication in river disaster prevention works.

Implementing Software Risk Management Process based on CMMI (CMMI기반의 소프트웨어 리스크 관리 프로세스 구축)

  • Do, Sung-Ryong;Han, Hyuk-Soo
    • Journal of Convergence Society for SMB
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2011
  • There are always many kinds of risks in software development such as frequent changes of requirements. Especially those risks related to the software characteristic of non-visibility can be threat to the project success. That lead us to the need of process implementation to reduce and minimize those risks. Although, most of the organization recognizes the importance of risk management, actual implementation requires professional knowledge in this area. CMMI, the de facto standard in process reference model, also emphasizes on risk management process area but only provides goals and practices to be implemented, not detail procedure and methods. In this paper, we developed Risk management implementation model based on IDEAL, the process improvement model based on CMMI. The proposed model will help the organizations to implement risk management process which is proper to their situation in the factor of organization size and project characteristics.

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Development of Risk Breakdown Structure of Nuclear Power Plant Decommissioning Project: Focusing on Structural Damage / Work Process Risks (원전 차폐 콘크리트 구조물 제염해체공사 리스크 분류체계 구축: 구조적 / 작업 리스크를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Byeol;Lee, Joo-Sung;Ahn, Yong-Han
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.38-45
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to deduct the structural damage / work process risks factors which can be occurred during the decommissioning in the NPP containment concrete structure. To achieve these purpose, risk profile specified in the construction industry is analyzed, and the work process of NPP decommissioning and the construction project were matched based on the similarity of each works. Accordingly, human and physical risk factors are classified. Finally, the risk associated with the building structure and work process was classified as per their process activities, and risk typology explaining the disaster which put the structure, equipments, machine and workers in serious danger was developed.

Effect of Office Building Remodeling Project Characteristics on the Occurrence of Schedule Delay Risk Factors (오피스 리모델링 프로젝트 특성에 따른 공기지연 리스크 발생 영향도)

  • Cho, Kyuman;Kim, Taehoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2018
  • Due to the inherent risk factors of the remodeling projects, the remodeling project is failing frequently, and schedule delay are occurring in most remodeling projects. The risk factors that cause the delays in these remodeling projects are not common to all remodeling projects, and the likelihood of risk factors will be affected by the various characteristics of the project. In this context, based on the results of a reliable survey conducted on 29 construction managers who have performed remodeling projects, this research analyzes (1) "importance of each characteristic", which means how frequently the characteristics of the remodeling project affect the occurrence of risk factors, (2) "the likelihood of delay risk factors for remodeling projects", which assesses which risk factors are most likely to occur, and 3) "the level of effect of project characteristics that affects the occurrence of each risk factor." Through this study, the relationship between various characteristics of the office building remodeling projects and the delay risk factors was analyzed in various aspects, in further, it is expected that the owner planning the remodeling will be able to grasp the delay risk that is likely to occur according to the characteristics of the project in advance.

Analysis of Schedule Risk using PROMETHEE (PROMETHEE 기법을 활용한 공정리스크 중요도 분석)

  • Lee, Jang-Young;Yoon, Yoo-Sang;Jang, Myung-Hoon;Suh, Sang-Wook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.353-357
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    • 2008
  • The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management processes identification, analysis and response. Especially, the analysis process is important to objectively identify importance and priority among risk factors. The purpose of this study is to develop the effective analysis process by studying and supplement the problem of the AHP analysis method. The study provides a analysis process to use the PROMETHEE analysis method proposed.

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국내 인터넷전문은행 설립시 예상되는 전자금융리스크에 대한 대응방안 연구

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Park, Tae-Hyoung;Lim, Jong-In
    • Review of KIISC
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 2008
  • 최근 은행의 소유지분한도와 설립자본금 등에 대한 정부의 금융규제 완화로 인터넷전문은행의 설립 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 그러나 우리나라의 전자금융환경은 전자금융거래법 제정에 따라 금융기관의 입증책임을 강화함으로써 금융기관의 전자금융리스크가 상대적으로 크게 증가하였다. 또한, 정보 공격기술 및 수법의 발달로 전자금융보안에 대한 위협이 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 이외 에도 신BIS 리스크 평가에 IT운영리스크가 포함되는 등 금융환경 변화 및 정보통신 기술의 발전으로 인한 전자금융리스크가 계속 확대되고 있는 추세에 있다. 이러한 금융환경 변화와 함께 서비스채널이 인터넷에 집중되는 인터넷전문은행은 기존의 전통적인 은행과 차별되는 리스크에 추가적으로 노출될 위험성이 높다. 이러한 리스크에 대한 인식 및 대비 부재는 금융소비자가 금융권 전자금융거래에 대한 불신으로 확산되거나, 금융시장의 불안정성을 야기하는 금융사고로 이어져 자칫 국내 전자금융의 발전을 저해하는 심각한 요소가 될 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 국내 금융환경과는 차이가 있지만, 인터넷전문은행이 가져올 전자금융의 기술적 변화는 유사하다는 점에서 해외 주요국가의 인터넷전문은행 현황과 전자금융부문을 중심으로 인터넷전문은행 설립인가 사례를 살펴보고, 국내에서 인터넷전문은행 설립시 우리가 취해야 할 입장에 대해 시사점을 얻고자 하였다. 그리고 국내 전자금융 환경에서 전통적인 일반은행과 차별되거나 인터넷전문은행 고유의 특성으로 발생되는 주요 전자금융리스크를 다섯 가지로 분석하였고, 이러한 전자금융리스크를 줄이기 위한 대응방안을 모색해 보았다. 정부의 금융규제 완화는 금융자유화를 진전시켜 금융거래가 자유경쟁원리에 입각해 이루어짐에 따라 국민경제의 발전에 있어서 바람직한 결과를 얻고자 하는 것이다. 그러나 다른 한편으로 과도한 리스크에 노출 될 경우에는 금융시장의 불안정성을 야기하고 이로 인해 역 선택과 도덕적 해이를 야기 시키는 등 여러 가지의 폐해를 줄 수도 있다 이러한 폐해를 줄이기 위해서는 인터넷전문은행의 고유한 특성으로 수반되는 리스크와 상대적으로 그 중요성이 부각되는 전자금융리스크에 대한 관리 감독을 강화해야 한다. 또한 이러한 리스크 관리강화를 위한 제도적 장치는 인터넷전문은행의 자율성과 책임성을 부여하는 방향으로 이루어지는 것이 바람직하다. 인터넷전문은행이 실질적으로 다수의 금융이용자에게 다양한 혜택과 효율적인 금융서비스를 제공하기 위해서는 초기 사업계획 심사 단계에서부터 위험성이 크게 증가하는 전자금융리스크에 대해서, 적절한 관리방안 수립을 통해 예상되는 리스크를 줄이기 위한 노력이 필요하다고 생각한다. 그리고 인터넷전문은행에 대한 구체적인 인가요건이 마련되지 못한 현 상황에서, 국내 인터넷전문은행 설립이 우리나라 전자금융거래에 발전적 역할을 할 수 있도록 앞으로 더 많은 논의와 연구가 진행될 필요가 있다.

A Performance Analysis of Risk Management for International Construction Project Conducted by Small & Medium Subcontractors (중소·중견건설기업의 해외하도급사업 리스크관리 성과분석)

  • Jung, Wooyong;Lee, Baul;Han, Seungheon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2017
  • In recent years, the reduction of international award and project loss by Korean contractors have become a big issue not only in industry but also in academic fields. However, many researches have not focused on small and medium subcontractors but on the large contractors, even though the number of international project by small and medium companies is more than by large companies. Therefore, this study focuses on analyzing the predicted risk before bid and the actual risk after award in international subcontracting projects. In addition, it provides the difference between project performances according to the contract types and the project profitability. This study is expected to give more informed risk knowledge to small and medium subcontractors, which enables them to pay attention to managing risk for better project performances.