• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.432-436
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• 2016

The cooler, which is the main part in a Thermal Observation Device (TOD), makes the TOD function by reducing the temperature. As the cooler is imported, overseas enterprises presented 20,000 hours as the operation time and the military have used the cooler as presented. However, failures have occurred occasionally after mass production stage. Therefore, we need to analyze the MTBF of the TOD cooler. So, military and defense industry companies collected the failure data of the TOD cooler. We analyze the MTBF of the TOD cooler using survival probability function and failure data. We find the optimal distribution by applying parametric method and estimate parameters. We determine that the Log-logistic distribution is the most appropriate for this data. Also, we analyze the reliability per hour of the TOD cooler. The result of MTBF of the TOD cooler was higher than that of presented by oversee enterprises.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2013

In this paper, make a study decision problem called an optimal release policies after testing a software system in development phase and transfer it to the user. In the course of correcting or modifying the software, finite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process model, presented and was proposed release policies of the life distribution, half-logistic and log-logistic distributions model which used to an area of reliability because of various shape and scale parameter. In this paper, discuss optimal software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement. In a numerical example, the parameter estimation using maximum likelihood estimation of failure time data make out, and software optimal release time was estimated.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-25
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• 2016

This study investigated the variability of WTP estimates(i.e. mean or median) with ad hoc assumptions of specific parametric probability distributions(i.e. normal, logistic, lognormal, and exponential distribution) to estimate WTP function using dichotomous choice CV data on mortality risk reduction. From the perspective of policy decision, the variability of these WTP estimates are intolerable in comparison with those of Turnbull nonparametric estimation method which is free from ad hoc distribution assumptions. The Turnbull nonparametric estimation can avoid a kind of misspecification bias due to ad hoc assumption of specific parametric distributions. Furthermore, the WTP estimates by Turnbull nonparametric estimation are robust because the similar estimates are elicited from a dichotomous choice or double dichotomous choice CV data, and the statistically significant WTP estimates can be obtained even though it is not possible by parametric estimation methods. If there are considerable variability among those WTP estimates by parametric estimation methods in condition with no criteria of model adequacy, the mean WTPs from Turnbull nonparametric estimation can be the robust estimates without ad hoc assumptions, which can avoid controversial issues in the perspective of policy decisions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.147-147
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• 2015

전 세계적으로 이상기후로 인한 극한가뭄 및 이상홍수 등의 피해 발생이 확인되고 있으며 그 발생빈도 또한 급격히 증가하고 있다. 그러나 기존의 빈도해석은 시간의 변화에 따라 자료의 통계적 특성이 변하지 않는다는 정상성(stationarity)을 기본 가정으로 수행되기 때문에 극한 사상에 경향성이 있는 경우에 적용하기엔 한계가 있다. 비정상성 빈도해석을 위해 개발된 비정상성 확률 분포 모형들은 대부분 매개변수에 시간항을 포함하는 형태로 정의된다. 이중에서도 우리나라에 널리 사용되고 있는 Gumbel 모형에 대해 살펴보면, 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 위치 및 규모 매개변수는 시간에 대해 선형(linear) 및 지수(exponential) 함수의 관계를 보이는 형태로 가정한다. 규모 매개변수의 지수함수의 형태는 음(-)의 값이 추정되는 것을 방지하기 위해 제안되어 널리 사용되고 있으나 이로 인해 확률수문량이 과다산정되는 문제가 발생하기도 한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 비정상성 Gumbel 모형을 대상으로 규모 매개변수의 다양한 형태를 비교하고자 한다. 이를 위해 비정상성 Gumbel 모형 규모 매개변수를 지수함수, 선형, 로그, 로지스틱 형태로 가정하여 비교하였다. 각 모형의 매개변수의 추정은 최우도법을 적용하였으며, 규모 매개변수의 형태별 정확도 비교를 위해 모의실험을 수행하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.1239-1247
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• 2010

In this paper, we were researched decision problem called an optimal release policies after testing a software system in development phase and transferring it to the user. The applied model of release time exploited infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process This infinite failure non-homogeneous Poisson process is a model which reflects the possibility of introducing new faults when correcting or modifying the software. The intensity function used Gompertz, Preto and Log-logstic pattern which has the efficient various property. Thus, optimal software release policies which minimize a total average software cost of development and maintenance under the constraint of satisfying a software reliability requirement becomes an optimal release policies. In a numerical example, after trend test applied and estimated the parameters using maximum likelihood estimation of inter-failure time data, estimated software optimal release time.