• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.131-158
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• 2009

We examine the effects of environmental or organizational factors on the performance of TLOs(technology transfer offices) in the PRIs(Public research institutes) using SFA(Stochastic Frontier Analysis), a technique for estimating the efficiency of DMUs(decision making units). In SFA, independent variables are assumed to determine the efficient production technique(production frontier) or affect the efficiency of DMUs. Previous researchs show that input variables such as number of personnel, R&D expenditure affect the production frontier while environmental or organizational variables affect the efficiency. We tried to estimate various types of models to find out whether environmental or organizational variables affect output variables differently from the previous research. Main empirical findings are as follows. First, R&D expenditure tends to increase all output variables considered. Second, environmental factors such as type of institutions and location of institutions affect the level of outputs. Third, organizational factors such as reward system for technology transfer also appear to affect the output variables. Fourth, environmental or organizational variables affect the production frontier directly rather than affect the efficiency of DMUs. Lastly, the efficiency of each DMU appear to be 1 or near to 1. Since almost all DMUs are equally efficient, it may not be effective to evaluate technology transfer activities of PRIs by efficiency criteria. We believe that this research should be complemented by additional data. More general types of production function need to be considered, and new techniques with concepts like output distance functions need to be developed to analyse multiple outputs simultaneously.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.9
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• pp.627-635
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• 2019

In Korea, snow damage has been happened in the region with no snowfalls in history. Also, casual damage was caused by heavy snow. Therefore, policy about the Natural Disaster Reduction Comprehensive Plan has been changed to include the mitigation measures of snow damage. However, since heavy snow damage was not frequent, studies on snowfall have not been conducted in different points. The characteristics of snow data commonly are not same to the rainfall data. For example, some parts of the southern coastal areas are snowless during the year, so there is often no values or zero values among the annual maximum daily snow accumulation. The characteristics of this type of data is similar to the censored data. Indeed, Busan observation sites have more than 36% of no data or zero data. Despite of the different characteristics, the frequency analysis for snow data has been implemented according to the procedures for rainfall data. The frequency analysis could be implemented in both way to include the zero data or exclude the zero data. The fitness of both results would not be high enough to represent the real data shape. Therefore, in this study, a methodology for selecting a probability density function was suggested considering the characteristics of snow data in Korea. A method to select probability density function using conditional joint probability distribution was proposed. As a result, fitness from the proposed method was higher than the conventional methods. This shows that the conventional methods (includes 0 or excludes 0) overestimated snow depth. The results of this study can affect the design standards of buildings and also contribute to the establishment of measures to reduce snow damage.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.237-244
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• 2015

This study is estimated the flood damage probability of the flood discharge, the flood stage estimation and Economic Analysis for Flood Control about considering of uncertainty. Sum River Basin has chosen and the probability precipitation is estimated by using the concept of critical rainfall duration depending on the frequency of each flood stage estimation point. For calculating the expected annual damage, the functions of long term hazard, discharge-frequency, stage-discharge and depth-damage are established for 8 areas in Sum River Basin. The expected annual damaged is obtained which is based on the sampling informations through more than 500,000 simulation from the functions of considered uncertainty. The result about the optimum frequency and Investment Priorities are estimated by conducting the evaluation about planning the levee of various of Design Frequency. In analysis result, 12% of B/C value has increased if the uncertainty has concerned. Also the optimum frequency or Investment Priorities are possible to be changed. If the political and social analysis perform together it would be helpful to have a reasonable decision other than only the economical analysis as actual Flood damaged reduction planning.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.70-79
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• 2016

The current remodeling cost estimation process is not only dependent on the historical data of new building construction, but it also has a poor linkage with risk-based estimation approach. As such, there is a high risk of falling short of initial budget. To overcome this, a risk-based estimation approach is necessary by providing a probabilistic estimation in consideration of the potential risk factors in conducting the remodeling projects. In addition, the decision-making process should be linked with the risk-based estimation results in stead of intuitive and/or experience-based estimation. This study provides a probabilistic estimation process for residential remodeling projects by developing a detailed methodology in which a step-by-step approach can be achieved. The new proposed estimation approach can help in decision-making for remodeling projects in terms of whether to proceed or not, by effectively reflecting the potential risk factors in the early stage of the project. In addition, the study can enhance the reliability of the estimation results by developing a sustainable estimation process model where a risk-based evaluation can be accomplished by setting up the cost-risk relationship database structure.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.195-202
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• 2011

This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (ADC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AUC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.117-124
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• 2013

Association rule of data mining techniques is the method to quantify the relationship between a set of items in a huge database, andhas been applied in various fields like internet shopping mall, healthcare, insurance, and education. There are three primary interestingness measures for association rule, support and confidence and lift. Confidence is the most important measure of these measures, and we generate some association rules using confidence. But it is an asymmetric measure and has only positive value. So we can face with difficult problems in generation of association rules. In this paper we apply the similarity measures by probabilistic interestingness measure (PIM) with all marginal proportions (AMP) to solve this problem. The comparative studies with support, confidences, lift, chi-square statistics, and some similarity measures by PIM with AMPare shown by numerical example. As the result, we knew that the similarity measures by PIM with AMP could be seen the degree of association same as confidence. And we could confirm the direction of association because they had the sign of their values, and select the best similarity measure by PIM with AMP.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.234-243
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• 1992

Fatigue crack initiation life has a wide scatter and this makes the fatigue design of structural members difficult. In order to make the fatigue life distribution clear, it is required to prepare a large number of specimens and repeat the fatigue tests under the same loading condition. Such fatigue tests usually take much time and cost. In this study, a fatigue testing method using a multi-notched test specimen for the purpose of estimating the distribution function of fatigue crack initiation life by small number of fatigue tests is used. The purpose of this study is to verify the above fatigue testing method of a multi-notched specimen by using Bayesian reliability analysis, Least square method and Skewness method for the determination of unknown Weibull parameters. The multi-notched specimen is a specimen in which several tens of statistically identical notches are prepared.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.227-234
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• 2020

Under consideration of construction waste recycling, candidate secondary products applicable for the civil and construction areas can be reliably employed based on the recycling cost analysis. For the validation purpose, probability-based cost analyses were performed to estimate recycling cost profit considering uncertainties. When recycling construction wastes, the costs at each stage are fully dependent on target products to be adopted. To achieve commercialization of each product, its quality has to be improved with economic efficiency through accurate evaluation of input costs. Based on the probabilistic recycling cost analysis, the cost benefit for target products was estimated with waste classification cost, transportation cost to recycling treatment facilities and production cost. All necessary information on the cost analysis were collected from literature, disclosure, and existing recycling companies. In addition, a cost difference between recycled and non-recycled events was made. As a result, a probability-based recycling cost estimate for candidate secondary products was herein presented.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.733-745
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• 2010

Seasonality of hydrologic extreme variable is a significant element from a water resources managemental point of view. It is closely related with various fields such as dam operation, flood control, irrigation water management, and so on. Hydrological frequency analysis conjunction with partial duration series rather than block maxima, offers benefits that include data expansion, analysis of seasonality and occurrence. In this study, nonstationary frequency analysis based on the Bayesian model has been suggested which effectively linked with advantage of POT (peaks over threshold) analysis that contains seasonality information. A selected threshold that the value of upper 98% among the 24 hours duration rainfall was applied to extract POT series at Seoul station, and goodness-fit-test of selected GEV distribution has been examined through graphical representation. Seasonal variation of location and scale parameter ($\mu$ and $\sigma$) of GEV distribution were represented by Fourier series, and the posterior distributions were estimated by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The design rainfall estimated by GEV quantile function and derived posterior distribution for the Fourier coefficients, were illustrated with a wide range of return periods. The nonstationary frequency analysis considering seasonality can reasonably reproduce underlying extreme distribution and simultaneously provide a full annual cycle of the design rainfall as well.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-27
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• 2003

In general, an airport access system has influenced on airport terminal operation. The congestion and delay in service facilities at an airport are definitely depended on the patterns of passenger arrival behavior and time spent in a terminal. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the passenger arrival behavior at an airport to improve the operations at passenger terminal. Passenger arrival patterns to an airport are mainly depended on factors such as the length of access time. reliability of access time. and provision of transport modes, etc. The focus of this paper is to estimate the relationship between the length of access time and passenger's total time spent to board aeroplane. For this, passenger surveys were conducted at the Gimpo International Airport for a large airport and Sacheon Airport for a small size airport. The mathematical relationship between arrival time at an airport prior to the scheduled time of departure(STD) and access time spent was then estimated. It is considered that the results of this study can be used to reduce congestion and delays, thereby to improve the efficiency of the passenger services at the airports.