• Title/Summary/Keyword: 등확률

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Statistical Probability Analysis of Storage Temperatures of Domestic Refrigerator as a Risk Factor of Foodborne Illness Outbreak (식중독 발생 위해인자로서 가정용 냉장고의 온도에 대한 확률분포 분석)

  • Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.373-376
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.

Aircraft Combat Survivability Analysis based on the Random Variable Weighted Score Algorithm (확률변수 가중치 환산법 기반 군용 항공기 생존성 분석기법)

  • Yang, Ju-Suk;Lee, Kyung-Tae;Jee, Cheol-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.883-890
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    • 2013
  • Aircraft combat survivability analysis is essential process for the development of combat aircraft. M&S methodology is the typical procedure for the aircraft combat survivability analysis, and the last step is the expensive Live Fire Test if it is necessary. This study introduced cost and time effective survivability analysis methodology based on the random variable weighted score algorithm in conceptual design phase. For this study, essential element and event analysis (E3A) is used to define the random variables and Monte-Carlo simulation is implemented to estimate weighted score and the final value of survivability.

Assessment of Frequency Analysis using Daily Rainfall Data of HadGEM3-RA Climate Model (HadGEM3-RA 기후모델 일강우자료를 이용한 빈도해석 성능 평가)

  • Kim, Sunghun;Kim, Hanbeen;Jung, Younghun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.spc
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 2019
  • In this study, we performed At-site Frequency Analysis(AFA) and Regional Frequency Analysis(RFA) using the observed and climate change scenario data, and the relative root mean squared error(RMMSE) was compared and analyzed for both approaches through Monte Carlo simulation. To evaluate the rainfall quantile, the daily rainfall data were extracted for 615 points in Korea from HadGEM3-RA(12.5km) climate model data, one of the RCM(Regional Climate Model) data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Quantile mapping(QM) and inverse distance squared methods(IDSM) were applied for bias correction and spatial disaggregation. As a result, it is shown that the RFA estimates more accurate rainfall quantile than AFA, and it is expected that the RFA could be reasonable when estimating the rainfall quantile based on climate change scenarios.

The Utilization of Local Document Information to Improve Statistical Context-Sensitive Spelling Error Correction (통계적 문맥의존 철자오류 교정 기법의 향상을 위한 지역적 문서 정보의 활용)

  • Lee, Jung-Hun;Kim, Minho;Kwon, Hyuk-Chul
    • KIISE Transactions on Computing Practices
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    • v.23 no.7
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    • pp.446-451
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    • 2017
  • The statistical context-sensitive spelling correction technique in this thesis is based upon Shannon's noisy channel model. The interpolation method is used for the improvement of the correction method proposed in the paper, and the general interpolation method is to fill the middle value of the probability by (N-1)-gram and (N-2)-gram. This method is based upon the same statistical corpus. In the proposed method, interpolation is performed using the frequency information between the statistical corpus and the correction document. The advantages of using frequency of correction documents are twofold. First, the probability of the coined word existing only in the correction document can be obtained. Second, even if there are two correction candidates with ambiguous probability values, the ambiguity is solved by correcting them by referring to the correction document. The method proposed in this thesis showed better precision and recall than the existing correction model.

Estimation of the Probability Flood Discharge for Small and Middle Watersheds (중소하천 유역에서의 확률홍수량 분석)

  • Yun, seong-jun;Yu, ui-geun;Kim, byeong-chan;Lee, jong-seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.442-448
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    • 2009
  • Recently, the natural disaster has occurred as a heavy snow fall, drought and flood by abnormal weather. The damage of human and property by flood is most serious problem among those natural disaster. In order to prepare structural or non-structural measure, to estimate exact flood discharge is important element. This study analyze frequency of hour-unit rainfall data and estimate probability flood discharge by HEC-HMS as changing method of runoff analysis. Also, this study analyze the peak flood discharge sensibility according to Curve Number(CN) with the return period. As a result of estimation of probability flood discharge with the variety CN, to select Antecedent Moisture To select suitable condition(AMC) is important parameter because flood discharge is estimated 40% gap according to AMC.

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Statistical Parameter Estimation to Calculate Collision Probability Between Mokpo Harbor Bridge and Passing Vessels (목포 대교와 통항 선박 사이의 충돌 확률 계산을 위한 통계 변수 추정)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin;Kim, Dae-Hee
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.34 no.8
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    • pp.609-614
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    • 2010
  • This paper describes statistical parameter estimation to calculate collision probabilities between Mokpo Harbor Bridge and passing vessels. At first, we obtained AIS (Automatic Identification System) information from passing vessels, then after, analyzed the lateral distributions of vessel tracks and estimated the mean and the standard deviation for the distance away from bridge center, the passing course and the passing speed. The analysis results of track distribution for the distance away and the passing course are shown as normal type, otherwise the speed distribution shown as two kinds of different normal type. In addition, we testified that the usefulness of estimated parameter values through the relative comparison between the track distributions and it's normal probability distributions.

Performance analysis of session admission control based on area for software download in cellular CDMA systems (셀룰러 CDMA 시스템에서 소프트웨어 다운로드를 위한 영역 기반 세션수락제어방식 성능분석)

  • 김광식;조무호
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.28 no.5A
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    • pp.294-304
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    • 2003
  • For an efficient software download in cellular CDMA systems, session admission control based on area (SACA) is presented. In the SACA scheme, the base station only allows mobile terminal to start session when the mobile locates near the base station of a cell. A mobile that is located near cell center can request software download session, but the mobile that is far away from the center can request session only after arriving near the cell center. Session duration time follows exponential and Pareto distribution. Performance is analyzed in terms of handoff rate, mean channel holding time, session blocking probability and handoff forced termination probability. As analysis results, handoff rate between cells in the proposed scheme is reduced to 30 ~ 250 % compared to conventional scheme, according to traffic characteristics such as terminal speed, session duration time and the size of the allowable zone area in a cell for the start of the session. And new session blocking probability slightly decreases to 5 ~ 20 %, but handoff session forced termination probability drastically decreases to 35 ~ 220 %.

Isolated Digit and Command Recognition in Car Environment (자동차 환경에서의 단독 숫자음 및 명령어 인식)

  • 양태영;신원호;김지성;안동순;이충용;윤대희;차일환
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.11-17
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    • 1999
  • This paper proposes an observation probability smoothing technique for the robustness of a discrete hidden Markov(DHMM) model based speech recognizer. Also, an appropriate noise robust processing in car environment is suggested from experimental results. The noisy speech is often mislabeled during the vector quantization process. To reduce the effects of such mislabelings, the proposed technique increases the observation probability of similar codewords. For the noise robust processing in car environment, the liftering on the distance measure of feature vectors, the high pass filtering, and the spectral subtraction methods are examined. Recognition experiments on the 14-isolated words consists of the Korean digits and command words were performed. The database was recorded in a stopping car and a running car environments. The recognition rates of the baseline recognizer were 97.4% in a stopping situation and 59.1% in a running situation. Using the proposed observation probability smoothing technique, the liftering, the high pass filtering, and the spectral subtraction the recognition rates were enhanced to 98.3% in a stopping situation and to 88.6% in a running situation.

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Suggestion of Flexural Strengthening Ratio of NSM Strengthened Concrete Railroad Bridge based on Probability and Reliability (확률.신뢰도에 기초한 표면매립보강(NSM) 콘크리트 철도교의 휨보강비 산정)

  • Oh, Hong-Seob;Sim, Jong-Sung;Ju, Min-Kwan;Lee, Ki-Hong;Park, Ji-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.121-124
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate. The railroad bridge is usually under vibration and impact in service state. Therefore, it is important that the effective strengthening performance must be exhibited under the service loading is acted. To widely apply the NSM method for the concrete railroad bridge in field, it needs that reasonable strengthening parameter such as strengthening ratio has to be investigated and evaluated when the strengthening design is conducted. In this study, to suggest more reasonable strengthening ratio, material and geometrical uncertainty was considered and applied by Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) technique. Lastly, the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate was evaluated by using the limit state function with the target reliability index.

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Estimation of Probability Distribution of L-Band Interference Environment Based on Field Measurement Data (전파 측정 데이터 기반 L 대역 간섭 환경 확률분포 추정)

  • Oh, Janghoon;Kim, Jong-Sung;Yoon, Dongweon;Park, Namhyoung;Choi, Hyogi
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2017
  • In modern electronic warfare, a variety of devices are being operated in the fields for the purposes of communication and surveillance. Therefore, if such devices work in the same band, interference may occur and affect each other. Regarding L-band in which various devices including radar systems are operating, interference from existing devices may affect new ones in the band. In this paper, we estimate a probability distribution of the interference environment in L-band from the selected measurement data, which is fundamental for the mathematical analysis. After selecting the candidates of probability distribution, we suggest the best one from the group. The results of this study are expected to be utilized as fundamental data for the mathematical approach to the L-band interference environment.