• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.662-674
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• 2014

In this study, accident frequency prediction models were constructed by collecting variables such as geometric structures, safety facilities, traffic volume and weather conditions, land use, highway design-satisfaction criteria along 780km (4,372 sections) of 4 lane-highways over 8 areas. As for models, a fixed parameter model and a random parameter model were employed. In the random parameter model, some influences were reversed as the range was expressed based on specific probability in the case of no fixed coefficients. In the fixed parameter model, the influences of independent variables on accident frequency were interpreted by using one coefficient, but in the random parameter model, more various interpretations were took place. In particular, curve radius, securement of shoulder lane, vertical grade design criteria satisfaction showed both positive and negative influence, according to specific probability. This means that there could be a reverse effect depending on the behavioral characteristics of drivers and the characteristics of highway sections. Rather, they influence the increase of accident frequency through the all sections.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.357-366
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• 2009

Since weathering weakens the rock fabric and exaggerates any structural weakness, it affects mechanical properties as well as physical and chemical properties of rock. Weathering leads to a decrease in density, strength, friction angle and cohesion, and subsequently it affects negatively on the stability of rock slope. The purpose of the study is to investigate the changes of the rock slope stability caused by discontinuities which have different weathering grades. For that, the discontinuity samples which are divided into two different weathering grades are obtained from the field and tested their mechanical properties such as JCS, JRC and residual friction angle. In order to evaluate the effects on the stability of slope due to weathering, the deterministic analysis is carried out. That is, the factors of safety for planar failure are calculated for rock masses which have two different weathering grades, such as fresh and weathered rock mass. However, since the JRC and friction angle values are widely scattered and the deterministic analysis cannot consider the variation, the factors of safety cannot represent properly the stability of the rock slope. Therefore, the probabilistic analysis has been used to consider the scattered values. In the deterministic analysis, the factors of safety for the fresh discontinuity and weathered discontinuity are 1.25 and 1.0, respectively. The results indicate the fresh discontinuities are stable for planar failure and the weathered discontinuities are marginally stable. However, the probabilities of failure for the fresh discontinuity and weathered discontinuity are 25.6% and 45.9%, respectively. This shows that both discontinuities are analyzed as unstable in the probabilistic analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.3 s.164
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• pp.275-288
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• 2006

This study develops ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) system by using medium-term numerical weather prediction model which is GDAPS(T213) of KMA. The developed system forecasts medium- and long-range exceedance Probability for streamflow and RPSS evaluation scheme is used to analyze the accuracy of probability forecasts. It can be seen that the daily probability forecast results contain high uncertainties. A sensitivity analysis with respect to forecast time resolution shows that uncertainties decrease and accuracy generally improves as the forecast time step increase. Weekly ESP results by using the GDAPS output with a lead time of up to 28 days are more accurately predicted than traditional ESP results because conditional probabilities are stably distributed and uncertainties can be reduced. Therefore, it can be concluded that the developed system will be useful tool for medium- and long-term reservoir inflow forecasts in order to manage water resources.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.186-196
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• 2019

Berthing energy is majorly influenced by the berthing velocity. It is necessary to design an appropriate berthing velocity for each pier, since excessive berthing velocity can cause berthing accident causing damage to the ship and pier. In this study, as a statistical approach for berthing velocity, the probability distributions suitable for the berthing velocities were confirmed using the K-S test, the A-D test and the Q-Q plot. As a result, the frequency distribution of the berthing velocity was found to be suitable using the Weibull distribution as well as the lognormal distribution. Additionally, the predicted values obtained through estimation of the berthing velocity using the concept of probability of exceedance in this study is proposed as a reference of design berthing velocity. It can be observed that the design berthing velocity is set to be somewhat low so that it does not practically match with the reality. This study and its results can be expected to contribute to the development of a proper design velocity calculation method.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.140-155
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• 2020

This study was conducted to identify the location characteristics of infected farms in the areas where livestock diseases were clustered(southern Gyeonggi-do and Chungcheong-do), analyze the probability of disease occurrence in poultry farms, find out the areas corresponding to the conditions, and use them as the basis for prevention of livestock diseases, selection of discriminatory prevention zones, and establishment of prevention strategies and as the basic data for complementary measures. The increase of one poultry farm within a radius of 3-kilometers increases the risk of HPAI infection by 10.9% compared to the previous situation. The increase of 1m in distance from major roads with two lanes or more reduces the probability of HPAI infection by 0.001% compared to the previous situation. If the distance of the poultry farm located with 15 kilometers from a major migratory bird habitat increases by 15 to 30 kilometers, the chance of infection with HPAI is reduced by 46.0%. And if the distance of the same poultry farm increase by more than 30 kilometers, the chances of HPAI infection are reduced by 88.5%. Based on the results of logistic regression, the predicted probability was generated and the actual area of the location condition with 'more than 15 poultry farms within 3km a radius of, within 1km distance from major roads, and within 30km distance from major migratory birds habitat was determined and the infection rate was measured. It is expected that the results of this study will be used as basic data for preparing the data and supplementary measures when the quarantine authorities establish discriminatory quarantine areas and prevention strategies, such as preventive measures for the target areas and farms, or control of vehicles, by identifying the areas where livestock diseases are likely to occur in the region.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.2B
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• pp.225-236
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• 2008

The techniques to calculate the probability precipitation for the design of hydrological projects can be determined by the point frequency analysis and the regional frequency analysis. Probability precipitation usually calculated by point frequency analysis using rainfall data that is observed in rainfall observatory which is situated in the basin. Therefore, Probability precipitation through point frequency analysis need observed rainfall data for enough periods. But, lacking precipitation data can be calculated to wrong parameters. Consequently, the regional frequency analysis can supplement the lacking precipitation data. Therefore, the regional frequency analysis has weaknesses compared to point frequency analysis because of suppositions about probability distributions. In this paper, rainfall observatory in Korea did grouping by cluster analysis using position of timely precipitation observatory and characteristic time rainfall. Discordancy and heterogeneity measures verified the grouping precipitation observatory by the cluster analysis. So, there divided rainfall observatory in Korea to 6 areas, and the regional frequency analysis applies index-flood techniques and L-moment techniques. Also, the probability precipitation was calculated by the regional frequency analysis using variable kernel density function. At the results, the regional frequency analysis of the variable kernel function can utilize for decision difficulty of suitable probability distribution in other methods.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2B
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• pp.193-205
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• 2009

Typhoons occurred in the tropical Pacific region, these might be affected the Korea moving toward north. The strong winds and the heavy rains by the typhoons caused a natural disaster in Korea. In the research, the heavy rainfall events based on typhoons were evaluated quantitative through various statistical techniques. First, probability precipitation and typhoon probability precipitation were compared using frequency analysis. Second, EST probability precipitation was calculated by Empirical Simulation Techniques (EST). Third, NL probability precipitation was estimated by coupled Nonparametric monte carlo simulation and Locally weighted polynomial regression. At the analysis results, the typhoons can be effected Gangneung and Mokpo stations more than other stations. Conversely, the typhoons can be effected Seoul and Inchen stations less than other stations. Also, EST and NL probability precipitation were estimated by the long-term simulation using observed data. Consequently, major hydrologic structures and regions where received the big typhoons impact should be review necessary. Also, EST and NL techniques can be used for climate change by the global warming. Because, these techniques used the relationship between the heavy rainfall events and the typhoons characteristics.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.37-48
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• 2017

This study aims to examine the effect of housing environment on single mothers' health and to find out how to improve their health and housing environment. For the purpose, this study analyzed the Single-parents survey carried out by Ministry of Gender Equality and Family in 2015. The results are as follows. When residential functions such as mining, heating, and noise are not fulfilled among the physical characteristics of the residential environment, single-mothers are more likely to feel unhealthy. Among the socio-economic characteristics of housing, people who live in public rental housing are more likely to feel unhealthy than those living in own house. And people who have excessive household debt are less healthy than those having no debt. Socioeconomic characteristics of housing environments had a significant effect on depression of single-mothers. Based on the results, the author suggested that housing improvement services, survey of housing conditions of single parents, provision of services considering household debt and improving residential conditions of public rentals houses should be implemented.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.59-85
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• 2009

본 연구는 최근 인구학에서 공간적 접근을 시도하는 논의들이 활발해지는 경향과 함께 지역 적합적 저출산 대응정책의 필요성의 대두라는 정책적 수요에 부합하고자 자녀출산계획에 있어 지역의 공간적 효과가 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 또한, 기혼여성의 연령, 출산한 자녀의 수가 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 대한 비선형적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 다층모형과 같이 최근 지역연구에서 이용되고 있는 실증분석방법들의 한계점을 살펴보고, 그 대안으로 Geo-Additive Model을 적용하였다. 동 방법론은 한 모형 내에서 공간의 구조적 효과와 비구조적 효과, 연속형 변인의 비선형효과 등을 동시에 추정할 수 있다. 이를 위한 분석자료로 통계청의 2005년도 인구주택총조사의 마이크로데이터 중 2% B형 자료를 이용하였다. 분석결과 기혼여성이 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 기혼여성의 연령과 출산한 자녀의 수는 비선형적 효과를 주었으며, 특히 각 개인들은 현재의 출산 상태에서 자녀 한명을 추가로 출산하는 것이 동일한 부담으로 작용하지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 이를 통해 기혼여성들의 첫출산 시점이 결혼연령에 따라 차이가 있고 결혼코호트에 따라 다르더라도 첫출산 자체가 여전히 보편적인 현상이라는 가정을 받아들인다면, 출산율 제고를 위한 정책의 대상은 첫째아를 이미 출산한 여성들이 되어야 할 것으로 보인다. 또한, 자녀를 출산할 계획을 가질 확률에 지역의 구조적 공간효과가 유의미한 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 지역별 합계출산율의 공간 자기상관분석 결과와 비교해 본 결과 출산계획의 구조적 공간효과가 양의 효과를 미치는 지역에서는 실제 출산행위인 합계출산율도 높지만, 구조적 공간효과가 부적인 효과를 가지고 있는 지역에서는 합계출산율도 낮게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 각 지방자치단체에서는 지자체들의 정책수요나 자원 및 재정의 부담능력 등 지역별 차이를 고려하지 않은 일률적인 정책의 추진을 지양하고, 지역 특수성을 고려하여 지역에 적합한 출산정책을 추진해야 할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.19-27
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• 2002

Prediction of exact soil loss yield has as important engineering meaning as prediction of exact flow measurement in a stream. The quantity of soil loss in a stream should be considered in planning and management of water resources and water quality such as design and maintenace of hydraulic structures : dams, weirs and seawalls, channel improvement, channel stabilization, flood control, design and operation of reservoirs and design of harbors. In this study, the soil loss of Sap-gyo reservoir watershed is simulated and estimated by RUSLE model which is generally used in the estimation of soil loss. The parameters of RUSLE model are selected and estimated using slope map, landuse map and soil map by GIS. These parameters are applied to RUSLE's estimating program. And soil loss under probability rainfall in different frequencies are estimated by recent 30 years of rainfall data of Sap-gyo reservoir watershed.