• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.25 no.1
• /
• pp.63-83
• /
• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.3-44
• /
• 1986

In order to obtain the basic physical and mechanical properties of steel wire reinforced particleboard, particleboards were formed with large particles through 2.11 mm (12 meshes) and retained on 1.27mm (20 meshes) sieves and small particles through 1.27mm (20 meshes) and retained on 0.42mm (60 meshes) sieves from the plywood mill wastes of meranti (Shorea spp.) in the form of pallmanchips, applying urea-formaldehyde resin as an adhesive on the particle surface in 10 percent on the oven dried weight of particles, and arranging steel wires of 1mm in diameter 5,10,15,20, and 25mm in longitudinal and transverse direction with crossing in the mid of the board depth in single layer boards, 10mm in longitudinal or transverse direction without crossing in two layers and 10mm in longitudinal and transverse directions with and without crossing in three steel wire layers boards. The stepwise 9-minutes-multi-pressing schedule in 5 minutes at 35 kgf/$cm^2$, 2.5 minutes at 25 kgf/$cm^2$. and 1.5 minutes at 15 kgf/$cm^2$ was applied for $300{\times}200{\times}13$mm board at the temperature of 160$^{\circ}C$ in a hot press. Specific gravity, thickness swelling, bending properties of modulus of rupture (MOR), modulus of elasticity(MOE), work to proportional limit, and work to ultimate load, internal bond (IB), and screw holding power(SHP) of the reinforced boards were analyzed on the wire openings and wire layers. The results obtained are summarized as follows; 1) In specific gravity, particleboards with large particles and small particles had higher value with more steel wire placements and more steel layers composition, 2) Particleboards with large particles in accordance with more steel wire liners composition gave very poor thickness swelling. 3) The mechanical properties of particleboards formed with large or small particles were reinforced with more steel wire layers. Therefore, bending strength was improved in modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, and work to ultimate load. Especiallv, particleboards with two or three steel wire layers showed the tension lamination effect when the steels in lower steel wire layer were oriented parallel to the board length. 4) The modulus of rupture, modulus of elasticity, and work to ultimate load in bending varied with opening area, distance of lengthwise wires multipled by distance of transverse wires. Particleboards formed with large particles resulted in higher value in modulus of rupture with 1.5-3 $cm^2$ opening area, 1-2cm distance between transverse wires, and 1.5-2.5cm distance between lengthwise wires. Particle boards formed with small particles showed higher value with 0.5-1.5$cm^2$ or 3.75-6.25 $cm^2$ opening area, 0.5 or 2.5cm distance between transverse wires. 5) In modulus of elasticity, particleboards formed with large particles with one steel wire layer suggested higher value with 5-3$cm^2$ opening area, 1-2.5cm distance between transverse wires and also 1-2.5 cm distance between lengthwise wires. Particleboards formed with small particles showed higher value with 0.75-1.25$cm^2$ or 3-6.25$cm^2$ opening area and 0.5 or 2.5cm distance between transverse wires. 6) Particleboards formed with large particles gaved higher value in work to ultimate load with 1-3$cm^2$ opening area. Particleboards formed with small particles showed increasing tendancy with decreasing opening area. 7) In internal bond and screw holding power, particleboards formed with large particles had increasing value in two and three steel wire layers compositions, but particleboards formed with small particles showed no difference. Particleboards formed with large particles containing one steel wire layer showed no difference in internal bond and screw holding power, and particleboards formed with small panicles containing one steel wire layer resulted in increasing value in internal bond and decreasing value in screw holding power in accordance with increase in opening area.