• 제목/요약/키워드: 동질도 평가

Search Result 151, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Sensitivity of a hydrological model to areal precipitation estimates: impacts on precipitation data selection considering homogeneous rainfall regions (강우특성의 동질성을 고려한 유역 평균 강우량이 수문모형의 성능 개선에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Jung-Hun Song;Hakkwan Kim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2023.05a
    • /
    • pp.351-351
    • /
    • 2023
  • 강우 자료는 수문 모델링에서 중요한 입력 요소 중 하나이다. 강우의 공간적 가변성은 모델링 불확실성의 중요한 원인으로 알려져 있다. 강우 관측자료는 많은 경우 유역을 대표하는 평균 면적강수량 (Mean Areal Precipitation, MAP)을 계산하여 수문모형에 입력된다. 선행 연구에서는MAP 예측 결과의 신뢰도를 개선하기 위하여 다양한 보간 방법이 개발되었다. 하지만, 강우특성의 동질성를 고려한 대표 기상 관측소 선정이 MAP 예측과 유출량 모의 결과에 미치는 연구는 아직 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 유역의 MAP 예측에 있어 강우특성의 동실성을 고려한 강우 관측소 선정이 수문 모델링 성능 개선에 미치는 영향을 평가하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 종관 기상관측(ASOS) 74개 지점과 방재기상관측(AWS) 400여개 지점에서 2003~2022년 기간에 대한 일강수량 자료를 수집하였고 강우특성이 동질한 지역을 구분하였다. 또한, 강우특성 동질성의 고려 유무에 따른 MAP를 계산하였다. 이후, 5개의 매개변수로 이루어진 개념적 강우-유출 모형FPHM을 사용하여 우리나라 전역 41개 유역을 대상으로 MAP 계산 결과가 모형 성능에 미치는 민감도를 조사하였다. 분석 결과, 강우특성의 동질성을 고려한 강우 관측소의 선택은 MAP 보간 방법 이상으로 중요한 요소임을 확인할 수 있었다.

  • PDF

Assessment of Variables for Quantile Estimation in Regional Frequency Analysis (지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 대한 지역구분인자의 영향성 평가)

  • Jung, Tae-Ho;Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Sunghun;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2018.05a
    • /
    • pp.428-428
    • /
    • 2018
  • 지역빈도해석은 대상 지점의 관측자료만을 사용하는 지점빈도해석과 달리 지역구분을 통해 정의된 동질지역 내에 포함된 모든 지점의 자료를 사용하여 보다 정확하고 신뢰할 수 있는 확률수문량을 산정할 수 있는 방법이다. 지역빈도해석의 절차는 크게 지역구분인자를 이용한 동질지역구분과 홍수지수모형의 적용을 통한 확률강우량 산정으로 나눌 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 지역구분에 사용되는 지역구분인자가 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 미치는 영향을 알아보기 위하여 지역구분인자와 확률강우량 산정결과와의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 먼저, 동질지역 구분을 위해 지형적 특성과 수문학적 특성을 나타내는 지역구분인자를 선정하였으며, 군집분석을 통해 동질지역 구분을 수행하였다. 구분된 동질지역에 대해 지역성장곡선을 추정하고 홍수지수모형을 통해 지점별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 지역빈도해석을 통해 산정된 확률강우량의 지점빈도해석 대비 증감률과 동질지역구분에 사용된 지역구분인자와의 상관성분석을 통해 지역빈도해석의 확률강우량 산정에 영향을 주는 지역구분인자를 확인하였다.

  • PDF

Analysis for Flood Quantile Estimates at Ungauged Sites in Arid and Semi-arid Regions Based on Regional Frequency Analysis (지역빈도해석을 통한 건조지역의 미계측 지점 확률홍수량 추정을 위한 연구)

  • Jung, Kichul;Kang, Boosik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2017.05a
    • /
    • pp.51-51
    • /
    • 2017
  • 지역빈도해석은 짧은 기간의 자료를 보유하고 있는 계측 지점이나 자료가 없는 미계측 지점에서의 확률수문량을 산정하기 위하여 많이 쓰여 진다. 지역빈도해석을 실시하기 위한 조건으로는 우선 수집된 하천유역들을 대상으로 수문학적 동질 지역을 구분하는 것이 중요하다. 그리고 구분되어진 지역에 포함되는 모든 지점들의 자료를 빈도해석 함으로써 관심 지점의 신뢰할 만한 확률수문량을 산정하는 것이다. 그동안의 지역빈도해석은 주로 비건조지역을 중심으로 홍수와 같은 재난재해 대비 그리고 수자원 관리를 위한 연구들을 실시해왔다. 본 연구의 주 목적은 건조지역의 수자원 관리를 위해 건조지역 하천유역을 중심으로 지역빈도해석을 실시하여 신뢰할만한 확률수문량을 산정하는 것이다. 확률수문량 산정값의 정확도를 향상시키기 위해 지역빈도해석 모델에 쓰여 지는 새로운 지형학적 변수들을 제공하였고 수문학적 동질 지역을 구분 위해 수집된 각 하천유역의 형상들을 확인하여 동질 지역을 정의하였다. 예를 들면, 수지형 유역, 부채형 유역, 격자형 유역과 같은 다른 형상들을 구분하여 각 유역 형상 종류별로 동질 지역을 만들었다. 건조지역의 지역빈도해석을 위해 미국 건조지역의 105개 하천유역 유량자료들을 수집 및 이용하였다. 확률수문량 산정을 위하여 앙상블 인경신경망 (Ensemble Artificial Neural Network)과 정준 상관 계수(Canonical Correlation Analysis)를 이용한 지역빈도해석 모델을 만들었다. 제안된 모델의 수행평가와 정확성 평가를 위해 리샘플링 기법인 10-겹 교차 검증 (10-fold cross-validation), 잭나이프 (Jackknife) 기법들을 이용하였고 모델로부터 산정된 확률수문량값을 편향 (Bias), 상대 편향(rBias), 평균 제곱근 오차 (RMSE), 상대 평균 제곱근 오차 (rRMSE)를 통하여 산정 값과 실제 관측 값의 차이를 분석하였다. 그 결과 건조지역의 지역빈도해석을 위해 새롭게 제시된 지형학적 변수들을 사용하였을 때 모델의 수행능력이 향상되었음을 확인하였다. 또한 하천유역 형상에 따라 동질 지역을 구분하였을 때 향상된 확률수문량이 산정되었다. 향상된 지역빈도해석 모델을 통해 건조지역의 신뢰할만한 확률수문량을 산정함으로써 건조지역의 효과적인 수자원 관리를 위한 수공시설물 설계에 중요한 정보들을 제공할 것이다.

  • PDF

블로그 이용자의 세분화와 상위 블로거로의 전환요인에 대한 연구

  • Lee, U-Yeol;Sin, Min-Su
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2007.06a
    • /
    • pp.120-125
    • /
    • 2007
  • 블로그와 관련된 초기의 연구들은 주로 블로그를 사용하는 사용자를 동질성을 지닌 그룹으로 보고 연구를 진행하였다. 하지만 최근 블로그 인구가 크게 증가하여, 더 이상 동질성을 지는 그룹으로 보기에는 한계가 있다. 본 논문에서는 블로그 사용자(이하 블로거)를 구분하는 특성 요인을 추출하여, 블로거 세분화 작업을 수행한다. 세분화된 블로거 그룹의 전자상거래 이용행태, 콘텐츠 유료 구매 등과의 연관성을 분석하여 다른 인터넷 유저들과의 상대적 가치에 대해서 평가해보고자 한다. 또한 분석된 블로거 그룹의 특성을 활용하여, 하위 블로거의 상위 블로거로의 전환요인이 무엇인지에 대해서 탐구해보고자 한다.

  • PDF

Class homogeneous tests with correlation (상관관계가 존재하는 등급별 동질성 검정방법)

  • Hong, Chong Sun;Lee, Na Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.73-83
    • /
    • 2013
  • Among class quantitative tests for the credit rating systems, the credit rating tests for calibration are to test the class homogeneous differences between observed and predicted probabilities. For one time period, binomial test and chi-square test are included, and normal test and extended traffic lights test are also contained for several time peroids. In this work, we consider real data in which there exists correlation among variables, so that these test methods could be applied to the credit rating systems as well as various kinds of the class data such as BWT data and FSI data.

A Vehicle Model Recognition using Car's Headlights Features and Homogeneity Information (차량 헤드라이트 특징과 동질성 정보를 이용한 차종 인식)

  • Kim, Mih-Ho;Choi, Doo-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
    • /
    • v.14 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1243-1251
    • /
    • 2011
  • This paper proposes a new vehicle model recognition using scale invariant feature transform to car's headlights image. Proposed vehicle model recognition raises the accuracy using "homogeneity" calculated from the distribution of features. In the experiment with 400 test images taken from 54 different vehicles, proposed method has 90% recognition rate and 16.45 homogeneity.

Mature Market Sub-segmentation and Its Evaluation by the Degree of Homogeneity (동질도 평가를 통한 실버세대 세분군 분류 및 평가)

  • Bae, Jae-ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.27-35
    • /
    • 2010
  • As the population, buying power, and intensity of self-expression of the elderly generation increase, its importance as a market segment is also growing. Therefore, the mass marketing strategy for the elderly generation must be changed to a micro-marketing strategy based on the results of sub-segmentation that suitably captures the characteristics of this generation. Furthermore, as a customer access strategy is decided by sub-segmentation, proper segmentation is one of the key success factors for micro-marketing. Segments or sub-segments are different from sectors, because segmentation or sub-segmentation for micro-marketing is based on the homogeneity of customer needs. Theoretically, complete segmentation would reveal a single voice. However, it is impossible to achieve complete segmentation because of economic factors, factors that affect effectiveness, etc. To obtain a single voice from a segment, we sometimes need to divide it into many individual cases. In such a case, there would be a many segments to deal with. On the other hand, to maximize market access performance, fewer segments are preferred. In this paper, we use the term "sub-segmentation" instead of "segmentation," because we divide a specific segment into more detailed segments. To sub-segment the elderly generation, this paper takes their lifestyles and life stages into consideration. In order to reflect these aspects, various surveys and several rounds of expert interviews and focused group interviews (FGIs) were performed. Using the results of these qualitative surveys, we can define six sub-segments of the elderly generation. This paper uses five rules to divide the elderly generation. The five rules are (1) mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive (MECE) sub-segmentation, (2) important life stages, (3) notable lifestyles, (4) minimum number of and easy classifiable sub-segments, and (5) significant difference in voices among the sub-segments. The most critical point for dividing the elderly market is whether children are married. The other points are source of income, gender, and occupation. In this paper, the elderly market is divided into six sub-segments. As mentioned, the number of sub-segments is a very key point for a successful marketing approach. Too many sub-segments would lead to narrow substantiality or lack of actionability. On the other hand, too few sub-segments would have no effects. Therefore, the creation of the optimum number of sub-segments is a critical problem faced by marketers. This paper presents a method of evaluating the fitness of sub-segments that was deduced from the preceding surveys. The presented method uses the degree of homogeneity (DoH) to measure the adequacy of sub-segments. This measure uses quantitative survey questions to calculate adequacy. The ratio of significantly homogeneous questions to the total numbers of survey questions indicates the DoH. A significantly homogeneous question is defined as a question in which one case is selected significantly more often than others. To show whether a case is selected significantly more often than others, we use a hypothesis test. In this case, the null hypothesis (H0) would be that there is no significant difference between the selection of one case and that of the others. Thus, the total number of significantly homogeneous questions is the total number of cases in which the null hypothesis is rejected. To calculate the DoH, we conducted a quantitative survey (total sample size was 400, 60 questions, 4~5 cases for each question). The sample size of the first sub-segment-has no unmarried offspring and earns a living independently-is 113. The sample size of the second sub-segment-has no unmarried offspring and is economically supported by its offspring-is 57. The sample size of the third sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is employed and male-is 70. The sample size of the fourth sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is not employed and male-is 45. The sample size of the fifth sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is female and employed (either the female herself or her husband)-is 63. The sample size of the last sub-segment-has unmarried offspring and is female and not employed (not even the husband)-is 52. Statistically, the sample size of each sub-segment is sufficiently large. Therefore, we use the z-test for testing hypotheses. When the significance level is 0.05, the DoHs of the six sub-segments are 1.00, 0.95, 0.95, 0.87, 0.93, and 1.00, respectively. When the significance level is 0.01, the DoHs of the six sub-segments are 0.95, 0.87, 0.85, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.87, respectively. These results show that the first sub-segment is the most homogeneous category, while the fourth has more variety in terms of its needs. If the sample size is sufficiently large, more segmentation would be better in a given sub-segment. However, as the fourth sub-segment is smaller than the others, more detailed segmentation is not proceeded. A very critical point for a successful micro-marketing strategy is measuring the fit of a sub-segment. However, until now, there have been no robust rules for measuring fit. This paper presents a method of evaluating the fit of sub-segments. This method will be very helpful for deciding the adequacy of sub-segmentation. However, it has some limitations that prevent it from being robust. These limitations include the following: (1) the method is restricted to only quantitative questions; (2) the type of questions that must be involved in calculation pose difficulties; (3) DoH values depend on content formation. Despite these limitations, this paper has presented a useful method for conducting adequate sub-segmentation. We believe that the present method can be applied widely in many areas. Furthermore, the results of the sub-segmentation of the elderly generation can serve as a reference for mature marketing.

  • PDF

A parametric bootstrap test for comparing differentially private histograms (모수적 부트스트랩을 이용한 차등정보보호 히스토그램의 동질성 검정)

  • Son, Juhee;Park, Min-Jeong;Jung, Sungkyu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.35 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-17
    • /
    • 2022
  • We propose a test of consistency for two differentially private histograms using parametric bootstrap. The test can be applied when the original raw histograms are not available but only the differentially private histograms and the privacy level α are available. We also extend the test for the case where the privacy levels are different for different histograms. The resident population data of Korea and U.S in year 2020 are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed test procedure. The proposed test controls the type I error rate at the nominal level and has a high power, while a conventional test procedure fails. While the differential privacy framework formally controls the risk of privacy leakage, the utility of such framework is questionable. This work also suggests that the power of a carefully designed test may be a viable measure of utility.

Statistical Homogeneity Tests and Multiple Comparison Analysis for Response Characteristics between Treatments of Bridge Groups (교량 집단의 특성 수준간 통계적 응답 동질성 검정 및 다중 비교 분석)

  • Hwang, Jin-Ha;Kim, Ju-Han;An, Seoung-Su
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.107-117
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study tests homogeneity and performs multiple comparison analysis among treatment levels of each factor group through t-test by materials and analysis of variance by structural type and service period. For that descriptive statistical analysis is performed for static and dynamic response characteristics and their ratios of calculated versus measured values based on a good many safety assessment reports for bridges. Homogeneity and post hoc test based on descriptive statistical analysis provide the measures for homogeneity identification among comparison groups in addition to the statistical reference values such as central tendency, variation and shape. This study is expected to be valuable for structural integrity assessment and design by comparing the measured and calculated values with the reference values for the homogeneous group identified, which can help the engineers review the adequacy of the values and put the group database to practical use.

Derivation of Intensity-Duration-Frequency and Flood Frequency Curve by Simulation of Hourly Precipitation using Nonhomogeneous Markov Chain Model (비동질성 Markov 모형의 시간강수량 모의 발생을 이용한 IDF 곡선 및 홍수빈도곡선의 유도)

  • Choi, Byung-Kyu;Oh, Tae-Suk;Park, Rae-Gun;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.41 no.3
    • /
    • pp.251-264
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this study, a nonhomogeneous markov model which is able to simulate hourly rainfall series is developed for estimating reliable hydrologic variables. The proposed approach is applied to simulate hourly rainfall series in Korea. The simulated rainfall is used to estimate the design rainfall and flood in the watershed, and compared to observations in terms of reproducing underlying distributions of the data to assure model's validation. The model shows that the simulated rainfall series reproduce a similar statistical attribute with observations, and expecially maximum value is gradually increased as number of simulation increase. Therefore, with the proposed approach, the non-homogeneous markov model can be used to estimate variables for the purpose of design of hydraulic structures and analyze uncertainties associated with rainfall input in the hydrologic models.