• 제목/요약/키워드: 동부

검색결과 1,071건 처리시간 0.032초

The Characteristics of the 2000-2001 Measles Epidemic in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (2000-2001년 수도권 지역 홍역 유행의 양상)

  • Pee, Dae Hun;Byun, So Hoon;Kim, Kyung Burm;Yoo, Young;Lee, Kee Hyoung;Shin, Young Kyoo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • 제45권10호
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    • pp.1219-1226
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : To assess the clinical characteristics of the 2000-2001 measles outbreak in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea, the clinical data of measles inpatients were analyzed. Methods : Three hundred and five children diagnosed with measles by clinical manifestation from July, 2000 to February, 2001, in Seoul, Ilsan and Ansan City were grouped according to their age and investigated for clinical manifestations, vaccination history and measles-specific IgM/IgG antibody positivity. Results : Thirty eight point seven percent of the subjects were less than 12 months of age, 27.5 % were 12-47 months of age and 33.8% were 48 months of age or older. There was no significant sexual difference(male : female=1.2 : 1). This epidemic started in June, 2000 and the number of patients increased abruptly in October, peaked in December and finally decreased after February, 2001. It started from the older age group and moved to the younger. Sixty five point two percent had a history of more than 1-dose vaccination and 13.6% of the patients equal or more than 48 months of age had a history of 2-dose vaccination. Primary vaccine failure rate was 59.4%(107/180) and secondary vaccine failure rate was 3.9%(7/180) in 1 dose vaccinees. Sixty one point six percent showed more than one complication and 38.4% had no complication. The most common complication was pneumonia(31.8 %), followed by bronchitis(11.5%) and acute otitis media(4.6%). Vaccination and dose were not related significantly with the occurrence of complications. Conclusion : Compared with previous outbreaks in Korea, clinical features showed no specific change in the 2000-2001 measles epidemic. However, primary vaccine failure rate was so high that the second vaccination at four to six years of age must be emphasized in Korea.

Seed Germination, Seedling Grwoth and Optimal Seedling Density of Phellodendron amurense Rupr. in Nursery (황벽나무의 종자발아(種子發芽)와 묘목생장(苗木生長) 및 적정생육밀도(適正生育密度)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究))

  • Goo, Gwan-Hyo;Lee, Kang-Young;Youn, Ki-Sik;Lee, Chong-Kyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • 제86권4호
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    • pp.443-449
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    • 1997
  • We examined the effect of pretreatments on seed germination, seedling growth, optimal seedling density of Phellodendron amurense. The seeds were carefully purified after collection in late Oct. from natural population at Mt. Chiri. For the evaluation of pretreatment effects, seeds were sowed in an experimental nursery after being stored in open ground($2{\sim}8^{\circ}C$) with soaking in 20% $H_2O_2$, 50-fold pon-pon solution, cold moist stratification in refrigerator($2{\sim}4^{\circ}C$) and dry storage in roam temperature($4{\sim}18^{\circ}C$), respectively, For the effect of growth density of seedlings, seedlings germinated in nursery were precisely controlled with 53, 104, 220, 380 seedlings per $m^2$. Among pretreatments for the promotion of germination rate, pon-pon treatment(68.8%) was highest, the others were higher than that in dry storage(2.3%), and these seed pretreatment methods were significantly different at 1% level. The height growth of seedlings showed the most vigor from Jun.12 to Jul. 8, and from Jul.20 to Aug. 2, and it reached to 72.8% of height growth. In case of 1-0 seedling, although seedling density per $m^2$ was increased, seedling growth was decreased. The optimal seedling density was 104 seedlings per $m^2$. The standard seedlings for plantation were above height 55cm, root collar diameter 8.1mm, and root length 21cm. These results demonstrated that seed of P. amurense requires stratification for the germination promotion.

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The Influence of the Restrictions in Chinese economic growth on Korean commercial environment (중국 경제성장의 제약요인이 한국 통상환경에 미치는 영향)

  • Shong, Il-Ho;Lee, Gye-Young
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.457-479
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    • 2013
  • Through a Chinese rise, Chinese dream is actualizing as the world's great power. According to outlook of World Bank and IMF, Around 2030 China will be a great power bigger than America's economic power. The rise of China will give a huge impact to the whole world. China expands her influence through a global manufacturing base and a global market. To actualize 'Peaceful Rise' Strategy, China has many constraints. Chinese society is facing many difficult social problem due to side effects of a rapid development. Such as the spread of corruption, the severity of wealth gap, environmental degradation and energy shortage. Internationally there are containment from hegemon so-called 'China threat' dispute, Taiwan issue and territorial disputes. Western countries are hostile to China for two reasons. Based on expectations, one is China's socialist system and the other is the rising China which will compete for supremacy with Europe and America. Recent emergence of Chinese nationalism and the containment of the neighboring countries are also serious limiting factors. Domestically they have the rampant corruption in the bureaucracy, weakened capacity of Communist rule, wealth disparity due to the discriminatory economic development strategy, seriousness of rural problem, social instability, lack of social security systems and the development gap between the eastern coastal areas and western inland areas, ethnic minorities problems, the constraint of sustainable development issues due to lack of resources, environmental pollution and energy constraints. Like the former Soviet Union, China may face a dismantlement. After the rise, China may encounter possibilities of a war between great powers or a collapse of Chinese society caused by deepening internal conflict. Serious economic polarization would make peasants and urban workers, who are social vulnerable people, to turn their back to communist party and threaten the justification and the appropriateness of the ruling communist party. Chinese government will think internal system security threat is more formidable risk factor than a system security threat from the hegemon. The decline of great country comes from internal reasons rather than external reasons. To achieve peaceful rise, unification with Taiwan is an essential prerequisite. Taiwan issues are complex problems which equipped with international and domestic factors. Lack of energy resources, environmental pollution in China will bring economic crisis to Korean enterprises. Important influence to Korean economy will be a changeover of the method in economic development. It will turn the balance of investment and consumption, GDP-centered growth to consumption and environment-centered growth. Services industries including finance, environment, culture, education, health care and social welfare will grow. Change in China's growth model will give a great challenge upon the intermediate goods industry in Korea. Korea should reduce the portion of machinery, automotive, semiconductor, steel and chemical-centered export industry to China, and should increase the proportion of the service industry.

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Devonian Strata in Imjingang Belt of the Central Korean Peninsula: Imjin System (임진강대의 중부 고생대층: 임진계)

  • Choi, Yong-Mi;Choh, Suk-Joo;Lee, Jeong-Hyun;Lee, Dong-Chan;Lee, Jeong-Gu;Kwon, Yi-Kyun;Cao, Lin;Lee, Dong-Jin
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.107-124
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    • 2015
  • The 'Imjin System' (or Rimjin System) was established in 1962 as a new stratigraphic unit separated from the Upper Paleozoic Pyeongan System based on the discovery of brachiopods and echinoderms of possible Devonian age. Subsequent discoveries of the Middle Devonian charophytes confirmed the Devonian age of the system. The Imjin System is distributed in the Imjingang Belt between the Pyongnam Basin and the Gyeonggi Massif, spans from the eastern areas including Cholwon-gun of the Gangwon Province, Gumchon-gun, Phanmun-gun, and Tosan-gun of the Hwanghaebuk Province, to the western areas of Gangryong-gun and Ongjin-gun of the Hwanghaenam Province, and includes the Yeoncheon Group (metamorphic complex) to the south. Unlike the lower Paleozoic strata in the Pyongnam Basin which solely produce marine invertebrate fossils, the Imjin System yields diverse non-marine plant and algal fossils. Brachiopods of the system are similar to those from the Devonian of the South China Block and include taxa endemic to the platform, implying a close paleogeographic affinity to the South China Block. The Imjin System is generally considered as of Middle to Late Devonian in age, although there have been suggestions that the system is of the Middle Devonian to Carboniferous in age. North Korean workers postulated that the Imjin System was deposited in the current geographic position, where the "Imjin Sea" (an extension of the South China Platform) was located during the Devonian. The Imjin System displays strong local variations in stratigraphy and its thickness. It has recently been reported that the strata are repeated and overturned by thrust faults in many exposures. The Yeoncheon Group a southward extension of the Imjin System, also experienced intense tight folding and contractional deformation. Northward decrease in metamorphic grade within the system suggests that the northern part of the Gyeonggi Massif and the Imjingang Belt are probably an extension of the Dabie-Sulu Belt between the South China and Sino-Korean blocks, and the Imjin System is an remnant of accretion resulted from the collision between the two blocks. In order to understand tectonic evolution and Paleozoic paleogeography of eastern Asia, further studies on stratigraphic, sedimentologic and tectonic evolution of the Imjin System involving scientists from the two Koreas are urgently needed.

The Study on the Relationship Between the Duration of Chest Vibration prior to Endotracheal Suctioning and the Changes in Oxygen Saturation in Low-Birth-Weight Infants (저체중아에 있어 기관내 흡인전 흉부진동법의 기관과 산소포화 변화간의 관계 연구)

  • Ahn, Young-Mee
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.597-607
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    • 1995
  • 1960년대 이후 인공호흡기(mechanical ventilator)의 보급과 최근 의료과학의 발달, 간호의 질적 향상의 결과로 저체중출생아를 포함한 고위험 신생아의 생존율이 높아져왔다. 호흡장애증후군(RDS)은 일차적으로 폐포의 완전한 확장을 위해 필요한 계면활성물질(surfactant)의 부족, 미발달된 심폐기능에 의한 병리적 현상으로 저체중아의 가장 큰 원인이 되어왔다. RDS로 인해 인공호흡기에 의존해 있는 저체중아의 경우 적절한 산소공급과 이를 위한 호흡의 유지는 치료의 가장 큰 핵심이 되며, 이를 위한 기관내 흑은 비인두 흡인 (nasopharyngeal suction)은 신생아 중환자실(NICU)의 가장 중요한 간호행위가 되어왔다. 인공호흡기를 위한 기관삽관은 그 자체가 기도의 성모운동을 방해하고 기침반사를 억제시켜 폐 분비물의 효과적 배출을 억제하며, 특히 저체중아의 경우 조산과 관련하여 미발달된 흥곽운등과 심폐기능은 폐분비물의 이동을 저해하는 요소이다. 따라서 기도내의 분비물의 이동을 효과적으로 하여 흡인 시에 최대한의 효과를 돕기 위해 흥곽 물리요법(chest physiotheraphy : CPT)의 한 형태인 흉곽진동법 (Chest Vibration : CV)가 행해져 왔다. 그러나 저체중아를 위한CV의 임상적 적용은 그 대상의 생리적 특성, CV의 적용부위(site)와 기간(duration)에 대한 과학적 근거 없이 만성감염이나 폐질환을 가진 성인이나 cystic fibrosis환자를 위한 CV protocol을 무분별하게 채택하여 저체중아에게 행하여져 왔다 이에 본 연구자는 저체중아에 대한 CV의 안전성을 평가하고, 이에 기초하여 저체중아에게 바람직한CV의 형태를 알아보고자 본 연구를 시작하였다. 연구설계는 CV의 안전성을 평가하기 위한 실험연구이다. CV의 안전성은 RDS치료의 가장 일차적 목표인 oxygenation변화에 의해 평가될 수 있으므로, 본 실험 연구에서는 Pulse oximeter에 의해 계속적으로 측정된 산소포화 변화(oxygen saturation change)를 측정하였다. 실험대상은 미국동부에 위치한 대학병원의 NICU에 입원하여 RDS와 관련된 호흡장애로 인공호흡기에 의존해 있는 10명의 저체중아였다. 인공호흡기에 의존된 모든 저체중아는 Pulse oximeter와 심폐기능 측정기(cardiopulmonary monitor)에 의해 산소공급과 호흡상태가 계속 측정되고 있었다. 실험대상의 평균 출생시 몸무게는 평균 1,3050gm(SD=580.6)이었고, 임신월령 은 평균 28.6주(SD=3.1)였다. RDS가 그들의 일차적 진단명이었고, 그중 4명은 pneumonia, atelectasis의 합병증을 가지고 있었다. 10명중 6명은 intermittent mandatory ventilation(IMV)의 형태로, 4명은 continuous positive airway pressure(CPAP)의 형태로 인공호흡기에 의존되어 있었고 CV시의 FiO2는 평균 42.3(SD=21.2)였다. CV는 중환아용 소형진동기 (minivibrator)를 이용해 가각 10명 의 간호사에 의해 행하여 졌고, 최소 22초에서 최대 100초 동안 실시되었다. 50%의 간호사는 30초에서 40초간 CV를 실시하였으며, CV의 적용부위도, 전후 흉곽부위, 혹은 병변이 있는 좌 우측, 흑은 양쪽 흉벽 등으로 다양했고, 적용방법도 원형으로 돌려가며(circular motion), 혹은 아래에서 위로, 혹은 아무런 기준없이 간호사의 기호에 따라 다양하게 적용되었다. 산소포화의 변화는 CV가 행해지기 전.후로 5초동안 관찰되었다. 연구의 결과, 산소포화 변화는 비 모수통계(non parametric statistics)의 일종인 Matched Paired Wilcoxon test로 분석 한 결과 CV후에 3%의 감소를 보였다(P<.05). 저체중아에 있어 산소포화의 3%감소는 임상적으로 중요한 의미가 없다고 사료되어지며, 실제 흡인전의 과도호흡에 의해 CV를 행하기 이전의 산소공급수준으로 돌아 왔다. CV실시 기간과 산소포화와의 상관관계는 비 모수통계인 Spearman rho correlation coefficient를 이용하여 분석하였는데, 이 두 변수는 서로 관계가 없는 것으로 나타났다(P>.05) 또한 CV와 흡인 후에 각각의 간호사들에게 CV를 필요로 한 저체중아의 기준, 적용부위, 기간, 방법등에 대한 기준을 물었으나 대상의 특성에 따른 간호사정에 의존하기보다는 간호사 각자의 선호하는 방법이나 습관에 라 행하는 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 CV와 산소포화 변화와의 관계, NICU에서 관찰된 CV의 임상적 적용을 기초로 저체중아에게 안전한 CV protocol은 신생아용 소형 진동기를 이용하여, 양쪽 흉곽의 늑골하측 변연 부위(low lateral costal margin)에서 시작하여 흉골 중앙부위 방향으로 30초 동안 진동기를 적용하는 것이 좋은 것으로 나타났다. 이에 CV의 효과를 평가하기 위한 보다 과학적인 접근방법으로, CV와 흡인의 결과인 가래(sputum)에 대한 연구를 제언하는 바이다.

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Areal Distribution Ratio and Characteristics of Constituent Rocks with Geologic Age and Rock Type by GIS in Gyeongnam-Ulsan-Busan Areas (GIS를 이용한 경남-울산-부산지역 구성암류의 지질시대별 및 암층별 분포율과 분포특성)

  • Yun, Hyun-Soo;Lee, Jin-Young;Hong, Sei-Sun;Yang, Dong-Yoon;Kim, Ju-Yong;Yi, Sang-Heon
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.39-59
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    • 2011
  • To get the geologic information data such as rock resources, industrial ground, development planning and so on, distribution ratios of constituent rocks with geologic age and rock type were obtained in Gyeongnam, Ulsan and Busan areas by ArcGIS 9.3 program, digital geologic and geomorphic maps of 1 : 250,000 scale. Geologic ages and rock types in the Gyeongnam area can be divided into 6 and 40, respectively. Their distribution ratios of the geologic ages are decreasing in the order of Cretaceous, Precambrian, Quaternary, Jurassic, Triassic and Tertiary. They show the wide ranges of 1.35-57.36%, and the former makes the most dominant ratio. Major rock types are 24 ones, all of which occupy the ratio of 94.58% and relatively narrow ranges of 1.15-13.64% in the area. Among them, andesite and andesitic tuff shows the more or less dominant ratio, and separately develops in the northeast, mid east and south parts of the area. In the Ulsan area, geologic ages and rock types can be divided into 3 and II, respectively. Their distribution ratios of the geologic ages are decreasing in the order of Cretaceous, Quaternary and Triassic. They show the very wide range of 6.90-79.21%, and the former makes the most prevailing ratio. Major rock types are 9 ones, which totally occupy the ratio of 98.63% and more or less wide ranges of 1.50-39.01% in the area. Among them, Jindong formation shows the most dominant ratio, and widely develops in the inner and eastern part of the area. In the Busan area, geologic ages and rock types can be divided into 3 and 10, respectively. Their distribution ratios of the geologic ages are decreasing in the order of Cretaceous, Quaternary and Tertiary. They show the wide ranges of 6.73-47.02%, and the two former makes the most dominant ratio of 88.03%. Major rock types are 6 ones, all of which occupy the ratio of 93.02% and relatively wide ranges of 4.07-47.02% in the area. Among them, alluvium forms the most dominant ratio, which mostly develops in the lower Nagdong River, West Nagdong River and Suyeong River.

Deformational Phased Structural Characteristics of the Hadong Southern Anorthosite Complex and its Surrounding Area in the Jirisan Province, Yeongnam Massif, Korea (영남육괴 지리산지구에서 하동 남부 회장암복합체와 그 주변지역의 변형단계별 구조적 특성)

  • Lee, Deok-Seon;Kang, Ji-Hoon
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.179-195
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    • 2013
  • The study area, which is located in the southeastern part of the Jirisan province, Yeongnam massif, Korea, is mainly composed of the Precambrian Hadong southern anorthosite complex (HSAC), the Jirisan metamorphic rock complex (JMRC) and Cretaceous sedimentary rock which unconformably covers them. Lithofacies distribution of the Precambrian constituent rocks mainly shows NS and partly NE trends. This paper researched deformational phased structural characteristics of HSAC and JMRC based on the geometric and kinematic features and the forming sequence of multi-deformed rock structures, and suggests that the geological structures of this area was formed through at least three phases of ductile deformation. The first phase ($D_1$) of deformation happened due to the large-scale top-to-the SE shearing, and formed the sheath or "A"-type fold and the regional tectonic frame of NE trend in the HSAC and JMRC. The second phase ($D_2$) of deformation, like the $D_1$ deformation, regionally occurred under the EW-directed tectonic compression, and most of the NE-trending $D_1$ tectonic frame was reoriented into NS trend by the active and passive folding, and the persistent and extensive ductile shear zone (Hadong shear zone) with no less than 2.3~1.4 km width was formed along the eastern boundary of HSAC and JMRC through the mylonitization process. The third phase ($D_3$) of deformation occurred under the NS-directed tectonic compression, and partially reoriented the pre-$D_3$ structural elements into ENE or WNW direction. It means that the distribution of Precambrian lithofacies showing NE trend locally and NS trend widely in this area is closely associated with the $D_1$ and $D_2$ deformations, respectively, and the NS-trending Hadong shear zone in the eastern part of Hadong northern anorthosite complex, which is located in the north of Deokcheon River, also extends into the HSAC with continuity.

GIS-based Areal Distribution Ratios and Characteristics of Constituent Rocks with Geologic Ages and Rock Types in Jeonnam and Gwangju Areas (전남과 광주지역 구성암류의 GIS에 의한 지질시대별 암층별 분포율 및 분포특성)

  • Yun, Hyun-Soo;Lee, Jin-Young;Hong, Sei-Sun;Yang, Dong-Yoon;Kim, Ju-Yong;Cho, Deung-Lyong
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.153-177
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    • 2013
  • To get the various data on geological information, distributional ratios and characteristics of constituent rocks with geologic ages and rock types were obtained by ArcGIS 10.1 program, digital geologic and geomorphic maps of 1:250,000 scale in Jeonnam and Gwangju areas. In the Jeonnam area, geologic ages can be largely divided into 7, in which their distribution ratios show decreasing trends in the order of Cretaceous, Precambrian, Jurassic, Quaternary, Age-unknown, Carbonifeorus-Triassic and Triassic, and the former fours make the most prevailing ratios of 94.80%. Rock types in the area can be assorted into 57 ones, in which major 7 ones occupy the dominant ratio of 71.68%. Among them, Kav (acidic volcanics+rhyolite and rhyolitic tuff) show much more distribution ratios than the others. It shows more aspects distributed in north, west, middle, east and south parts, especially in Sinan-Mogpo-Yeongam of west and Haenam of south parts in the area, respectively. On the other hand, geological ages in Gwangju area can be largely divided into 5, in which their distribution ratios show decreasing trends in the order of Jurassic, Quaternary, Cretaceous, Precambrian and Age-unknown, and the former fours occupy almost the whole ratio of 98.95%. Rock types in the area are 12 ones, in which major four ones make up the dominant value of 91.30%. Among them, Jurassic granites of the most dominant value are mostly occupied in the southwest-northeast part of the area. Next dominative Quaternary alluvium is mostly developed along the Yeongsan river, the Hwangryong river and their channel junction. And Yongdu and Donggye plains are well developed around the Yeongsan riverline, and channel junction of the Yeongsan and Hwangryong rivers in the area, respectively.

Spatial Changes in the Business Organization of Retailing in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (首都圈地域 小賣業 經營의 空間的 變容)

  • Han, Ju-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.19-37
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    • 1996
  • This paper aims at examining the regional difference of changes in the business organization of retailing in the Seoul metropolitan areas, as an attempt to understand regional structure of retailing within metropolitan areas showing the trend of suburbanization. On the national level, retail sales have concentrated on the large metropolitan areas, especially on the Seoul metropolitan area, with the concentration of population and income. Within metropolitan areas, the suburbanization of retailing has made the larger structure of retail and multi-store retail appeared. In order to confirm such phenomenon, this paper is to analyze and to compare the industrial composition of retailing using industry data of 1979 and 1991. And this paper is to analyze the regional changes in the characteristics of business organization of retailing, with the index including the percentages of establishments with less than under four employees, juridical establishments, employees of ordinary times, and the annual sales per establishment of detailing. The characteristics of business organization of retailing in analyzed by principal components analysis, and the types with component in each district (city, county, ward) is analyzed by cluster analysis(Ward method). The data of 1979 were obtained from the statistics in the Census of Wholesale and Retail Trade published by the National Bureau of Statistics of Economic Planning Board, and that of 1991 were obtained from the statistics in the Report on Establishment Census (Vol.3 Wholesale and Retail Trade) published by the National Statistics Office. The following are resultant findings. 1. In Seoul metropolitan area, changes in the industrial composition of retailing with annual sales from, 1979 to 1991 show very higher composition rates of 'general merchandise stores' and 'retailing of personal transport equipment and gasoline service stations', but comparatively lower composition rates of 'retailing of food, beverages and tobacco', 'retailing of textiles, clothing, footwear and apparel accessaries', 'general retail trade, n.e.c.',and 'retailing of household fuel'. 2. The characteristics of business organization of retailing in Seoul metropolitan area presents the prevailence of small, personal business organization and especially larger employees of ordinary times. 3. Business components of retailing by principal components analysis in Seoul metropolitan area are follows: 1 All retaining industries are larger business scale. 2. Larger business take the 'retailing of taxtiles, clothing, footwear and apparel accessories', 'retailing of furniture, home furnishing and equipment', and 'retailing of jewellery and watches' is main characteristic legal organization and employees of ordinary times. 4. Types changes in business organization of retailing in Seoul metropolitan area represent legal organization and employees of ordinary times taking the 'retailing of textiles, clothing, footwear and apparel accessories', 'retailing of furniture, home furnishing and equipment',and 'retailing of jewellery and equipment', and 'retailing of jewellery and watches', and legal organization taking 'general retail trade, n.e.c.' in 1979. All retailing industries are changed into larger business scale, in 1991. These phenomena of business changes appeared southeastern regions in Kyunggi-do(province). And larger business scale taking the 'retailing of textiles, clothing, footwear and apparel accessories', 'retailing of jewellery and watches', and 'general retail trade, n.e.c.; are appeared in the legal organization in 1979. 'Retailing of personal transport equipment and gasoline service stations' are appeared in employees of ordinary times in 1991. These phenomena of business changes in appeared in eastern and northern regions in Kyunggi-do. 5. Changes in the business organization of retailing in Seoul metropolitan area is appeared in legal organization and employees of ordinary times for some industries in 1979, larger business scale of retailing and employees of ordinary times in 'retailing of personal transport equipment and gasoline service stations' are the characteristics in 1991.

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A Prediction Model for Forecast of the Onset Date of Changmas (장마 시작일 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • 제28권2호
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 1993
  • Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

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