• Title/Summary/Keyword: 데이터 기반 의사결정

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The Effect of Online Multiple Channel Marketing by Device Type (디바이스 유형을 고려한 온라인 멀티 채널 마케팅 효과)

  • Hajung Shin;Kihwan Nam
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.59-78
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    • 2018
  • With the advent of the various device types and marketing communication, customer's search and purchase behavior have become more complex and segmented. However, extant research on multichannel marketing effects of the purchase funnel has not reflected the specific features of device User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). In this study, we analyzed the marketing channel effects of multi-device shoppers using a unique click stream dataset from global online retailers. We examined device types that activate online shopping and compared the differences between marketing channels that promote visits. In addition, we estimated the direct and indirect effects on visits and purchase revenue through customer's accumulated experience and channel conversions. The findings indicate that the same customer selects a different marketing channel according to the device selection. These results can help retailers gain a better understanding of customers' decision-making process in multi-marketing channel environment and devise the optimal strategy taking into account various device types. Our empirical analyses yield business implications based on the significant results from global big data analytics and contribute academically meaningful theoretical framework using an economic model. We also provide strategic insights attributed to the practical value of an online marketing manager.

Development of Market Growth Pattern Map Based on Growth Model and Self-organizing Map Algorithm: Focusing on ICT products (자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축: ICT제품을 중심으로)

  • Park, Do-Hyung;Chung, Jaekwon;Chung, Yeo Jin;Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2014
  • Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

Study on Tourism Demand Forecast and Influencing Factors in Busan Metropolitan City (부산 연안도시 관광수요 예측과 영향요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kyu Won Hwang;Sung Mo Nam;Ah Reum Jang;Moon Suk Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.915-929
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    • 2023
  • Improvements in people's quality of life, diversification of leisure activities, and changes in population structure have led to an increase in the demand for tourism and an expansion of the diversification of tourism activities. In particular, for coastal cities where land and marine tourism elements coexist, various factors influence their tourism demands. Tourism requires the construction of infrastructure and content development according to the demand at the tourist destination. This study aims to improve the prediction accuracy and explore influencing factors through time series analysis of tourism scale using agent-based data. Basic local governments in the Busan area were examined, and the data used were the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption on a monthly basis. The univariate time series analysis, which is a deterministic model, was used along with the SARIMAX analysis to identify the influencing factor. The tourism consumption propensity, focusing on the consumption amount according to business types and the amount of mentions on SNS, was set as the influencing factor. The difference in accuracy (RMSE standard) between the time series models that did and did not consider COVID-19 was found to be very wide, ranging from 1.8 times to 32.7 times by region. Additionally, considering the influencing factor, the tourism consumption business type and SNS trends were found to significantly impact the number of tourists and the amount of tourism consumption. Therefore, to predict future demand, external influences as well as the tourists' consumption tendencies and interests in terms of local tourism must be considered. This study aimed to predict future tourism demand in a coastal city such as Busan and identify factors affecting tourism scale, thereby contributing to policy decision-making to prepare tourism demand in consideration of government tourism policies and tourism trends.

A Time Series Analysis of Urban Park Behavior Using Big Data (빅데이터를 활용한 도시공원 이용행태 특성의 시계열 분석)

  • Woo, Kyung-Sook;Suh, Joo-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2020
  • This study focused on the park as a space to support the behavior of urban citizens in modern society. Modern city parks are not spaces that play a specific role but are used by many people, so their function and meaning may change depending on the user's behavior. In addition, current online data may determine the selection of parks to visit or the usage of parks. Therefore, this study analyzed the change of behavior in Yeouido Park, Yeouido Hangang Park, and Yangjae Citizen's Forest from 2000 to 2018 by utilizing a time series analysis. The analysis method used Big Data techniques such as text mining and social network analysis. The summary of the study is as follows. The usage behavior of Yeouido Park has changed over time to "Ride" (Dynamic Behavior) for the first period (I), "Take" (Information Communication Service Behavior) for the second period (II), "See" (Communicative Behavior) for the third period (III), and "Eat" (Energy Source Behavior) for the fourth period (IV). In the case of Yangjae Citizens' Forest, the usage behavior has changed over time to "Walk" (Dynamic Behavior) for the first, second, and third periods (I), (II), (III) and "Play" (Dynamic Behavior) for the fourth period (IV). Looking at the factors affecting behavior, Yeouido Park was had various factors related to sports, leisure, culture, art, and spare time compared to Yangjae Citizens' Forest. The differences in Yangjae Citizens' Forest that affected its main usage behavior were various elements of natural resources. Second, the behavior of the target areas was found to be focused on certain main behaviors over time and played a role in selecting or limiting future behaviors. These results indicate that the space and facilities of the target areas had not been utilized evenly, as various behaviors have not occurred, however, a certain main behavior has appeared in the target areas. This study has great significance in that it analyzes the usage of urban parks using Big Data techniques, and determined that urban parks are transformed into play spaces where consumption progressed beyond the role of rest and walking. The behavior occurring in modern urban parks is changing in quantity and content. Therefore, through various types of discussions based on the results of the behavior collected through Big Data, we can better understand how citizens are using city parks. This study found that the behavior associated with static behavior in both parks had a great impact on other behaviors.

The Effect of Characteristics of Entrepreneur on Venture Business Managerial Performance: By Separating the Duration of Firm's Survival (창업자 특성이 벤처기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향: 기업의 생존기간을 구분하여)

  • Chun, Dongphil
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • During few decades, Korean economy has been growing with heavy and manufacturing industries. However, the economy meets limitations of growth rate, and employment rate. The Korean government has been trying to overcome these limitations using development of venture businesses and re-organization of industrial ecosystem. These efforts make high survival rate of recent venture companies. There are previous researches about relation between characteristics of entrepreneur and managerial performance, there are several limitations. Firstly, most of papers were based on survey with specific region or industry. Secondly, related researches were carried out with unable to distinguish among firm's survival periods. This paper uses the '2017 Survey of Korea Venture Firms' data that is approved by the Korean government. This data includes whole industries and survival periods. The aim of this research is finding the effect of characteristics of entrepreneur on managerial performance of venture firms by different survival periods using data envelopment analysis (DEA). If entrepreneur has doctoral degree, the firm's managerial performance is lower than bachelor degree. In addition, over 10 years of working career, and joint-venture have positive effect on firm's performance. This paper can provide valuable information to venture related policy makers and investment decision makers.

Enterprise Competitiveness and Corporate Performance Creation Strategies by Stage of Growth on Firm (벤처기업의 성장단계별 기업경쟁력 및 기업 성과 창출 전략)

  • Park, DaIn;Park, ChanHi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.177-189
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    • 2018
  • Business environment is always full of challenges. Despite various strategic efforts, there are so many failure cases of misfit. With the weaker resource base and institutional foundation, startup firms find it more difficult to find the right spot in the stiff competition. In the middle of evolutionary process, the startup firms need proper strategies meeting the differential challenges along the multiple stages of growth. Following the idea of product life cycle, this study applies the four stages of growth-startup, initial growth, accelerated growth, matured, and decliing. The next step for the startup manager is meeting each stage of growth with proper strategic efforts, including strategy, structure, decision-making pattern, and control method. When the knowledge factor is introduced, there is a potential for higher performance. Based on the 'Detailed Survey on Startup Ventures in 2017,' this study explores the impact of the government subsidy program on the firm competitiveness and performance-along the four stages of growth. In each stage, the strategy factors showed differential impact.

A study on the effect of perceived amount of information in a fashion crowdfunding project on perceived risk and intention to participate (패션 크라우드펀딩 프로젝트에서 지각된 정보의 양이 소비자 위험지각 및 참여의도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Lee, Eun-Jung;Shim, Woo Joo
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.365-374
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the high growth rate and advantages of the crowdfunding market have also led to increased participation of brands and companies, and this also applies to fashion business. Risk has been noted to be a key factor in consumer behavior in crowdfunding. With the high-risk context of crowdfunding where supporters inevitably bear to pay full amount of price before receiving the actual products. Factors enhancing or inhibiting perceived risk of crowdfunding need to be explored. The past literature on perceived risk and consumer attitudes in crowdfunding has expanded, but it has rarely covered the context of experience goods such as fashion products. In addition, the platform characteristics in relation to perceived risk should be addressed. The current study attempts to address the effect of the perceived amount of information offered in a fashion crowdfunding project on perceived risk and the intention to participate in the project. For the experiment of this study, a fictitious crowdfunding page for fashion products was set as the stimuli. A total of 240 Korean participants were recruited and their responses were statistically analyzed using SPSS 24.0 software. In the results, the greater the amount of detailed information about the fashion crowdfunding project, the higher the intention to participate the project. The greater the amount of information provided, the lower the perceived risk of consumers. Moreover, the lowered perceived risk affected the intention of participate. Perceived risk has a partial mediation in the relationship between the amount of information and intention to participate. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Increasing Accuracy of Classifying Useful Reviews by Removing Neutral Terms (중립도 기반 선택적 단어 제거를 통한 유용 리뷰 분류 정확도 향상 방안)

  • Lee, Minsik;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.129-142
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    • 2016
  • Customer product reviews have become one of the important factors for purchase decision makings. Customers believe that reviews written by others who have already had an experience with the product offer more reliable information than that provided by sellers. However, there are too many products and reviews, the advantage of e-commerce can be overwhelmed by increasing search costs. Reading all of the reviews to find out the pros and cons of a certain product can be exhausting. To help users find the most useful information about products without much difficulty, e-commerce companies try to provide various ways for customers to write and rate product reviews. To assist potential customers, online stores have devised various ways to provide useful customer reviews. Different methods have been developed to classify and recommend useful reviews to customers, primarily using feedback provided by customers about the helpfulness of reviews. Most shopping websites provide customer reviews and offer the following information: the average preference of a product, the number of customers who have participated in preference voting, and preference distribution. Most information on the helpfulness of product reviews is collected through a voting system. Amazon.com asks customers whether a review on a certain product is helpful, and it places the most helpful favorable and the most helpful critical review at the top of the list of product reviews. Some companies also predict the usefulness of a review based on certain attributes including length, author(s), and the words used, publishing only reviews that are likely to be useful. Text mining approaches have been used for classifying useful reviews in advance. To apply a text mining approach based on all reviews for a product, we need to build a term-document matrix. We have to extract all words from reviews and build a matrix with the number of occurrences of a term in a review. Since there are many reviews, the size of term-document matrix is so large. It caused difficulties to apply text mining algorithms with the large term-document matrix. Thus, researchers need to delete some terms in terms of sparsity since sparse words have little effects on classifications or predictions. The purpose of this study is to suggest a better way of building term-document matrix by deleting useless terms for review classification. In this study, we propose neutrality index to select words to be deleted. Many words still appear in both classifications - useful and not useful - and these words have little or negative effects on classification performances. Thus, we defined these words as neutral terms and deleted neutral terms which are appeared in both classifications similarly. After deleting sparse words, we selected words to be deleted in terms of neutrality. We tested our approach with Amazon.com's review data from five different product categories: Cellphones & Accessories, Movies & TV program, Automotive, CDs & Vinyl, Clothing, Shoes & Jewelry. We used reviews which got greater than four votes by users and 60% of the ratio of useful votes among total votes is the threshold to classify useful and not-useful reviews. We randomly selected 1,500 useful reviews and 1,500 not-useful reviews for each product category. And then we applied Information Gain and Support Vector Machine algorithms to classify the reviews and compared the classification performances in terms of precision, recall, and F-measure. Though the performances vary according to product categories and data sets, deleting terms with sparsity and neutrality showed the best performances in terms of F-measure for the two classification algorithms. However, deleting terms with sparsity only showed the best performances in terms of Recall for Information Gain and using all terms showed the best performances in terms of precision for SVM. Thus, it needs to be careful for selecting term deleting methods and classification algorithms based on data sets.

Predicting the Performance of Recommender Systems through Social Network Analysis and Artificial Neural Network (사회연결망분석과 인공신경망을 이용한 추천시스템 성능 예측)

  • Cho, Yoon-Ho;Kim, In-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.159-172
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    • 2010
  • The recommender system is one of the possible solutions to assist customers in finding the items they would like to purchase. To date, a variety of recommendation techniques have been developed. One of the most successful recommendation techniques is Collaborative Filtering (CF) that has been used in a number of different applications such as recommending Web pages, movies, music, articles and products. CF identifies customers whose tastes are similar to those of a given customer, and recommends items those customers have liked in the past. Numerous CF algorithms have been developed to increase the performance of recommender systems. Broadly, there are memory-based CF algorithms, model-based CF algorithms, and hybrid CF algorithms which combine CF with content-based techniques or other recommender systems. While many researchers have focused their efforts in improving CF performance, the theoretical justification of CF algorithms is lacking. That is, we do not know many things about how CF is done. Furthermore, the relative performances of CF algorithms are known to be domain and data dependent. It is very time-consuming and expensive to implement and launce a CF recommender system, and also the system unsuited for the given domain provides customers with poor quality recommendations that make them easily annoyed. Therefore, predicting the performances of CF algorithms in advance is practically important and needed. In this study, we propose an efficient approach to predict the performance of CF. Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) are applied to develop our prediction model. CF can be modeled as a social network in which customers are nodes and purchase relationships between customers are links. SNA facilitates an exploration of the topological properties of the network structure that are implicit in data for CF recommendations. An ANN model is developed through an analysis of network topology, such as network density, inclusiveness, clustering coefficient, network centralization, and Krackhardt's efficiency. While network density, expressed as a proportion of the maximum possible number of links, captures the density of the whole network, the clustering coefficient captures the degree to which the overall network contains localized pockets of dense connectivity. Inclusiveness refers to the number of nodes which are included within the various connected parts of the social network. Centralization reflects the extent to which connections are concentrated in a small number of nodes rather than distributed equally among all nodes. Krackhardt's efficiency characterizes how dense the social network is beyond that barely needed to keep the social group even indirectly connected to one another. We use these social network measures as input variables of the ANN model. As an output variable, we use the recommendation accuracy measured by F1-measure. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the ANN model, sales transaction data from H department store, one of the well-known department stores in Korea, was used. Total 396 experimental samples were gathered, and we used 40%, 40%, and 20% of them, for training, test, and validation, respectively. The 5-fold cross validation was also conducted to enhance the reliability of our experiments. The input variable measuring process consists of following three steps; analysis of customer similarities, construction of a social network, and analysis of social network patterns. We used Net Miner 3 and UCINET 6.0 for SNA, and Clementine 11.1 for ANN modeling. The experiments reported that the ANN model has 92.61% estimated accuracy and 0.0049 RMSE. Thus, we can know that our prediction model helps decide whether CF is useful for a given application with certain data characteristics.