• Title/Summary/Keyword: 데이터 기반 의사결정

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A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

MDP(Markov Decision Process) Model for Prediction of Survivor Behavior based on Topographic Information (지형정보 기반 조난자 행동예측을 위한 마코프 의사결정과정 모형)

  • Jinho Son;Suhwan Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2023
  • In the wartime, aircraft carrying out a mission to strike the enemy deep in the depth are exposed to the risk of being shoot down. As a key combat force in mordern warfare, it takes a lot of time, effot and national budget to train military flight personnel who operate high-tech weapon systems. Therefore, this study studied the path problem of predicting the route of emergency escape from enemy territory to the target point to avoid obstacles, and through this, the possibility of safe recovery of emergency escape military flight personnel was increased. based problem, transforming the problem into a TSP, VRP, and Dijkstra algorithm, and approaching it with an optimization technique. However, if this problem is approached in a network problem, it is difficult to reflect the dynamic factors and uncertainties of the battlefield environment that military flight personnel in distress will face. So, MDP suitable for modeling dynamic environments was applied and studied. In addition, GIS was used to obtain topographic information data, and in the process of designing the reward structure of MDP, topographic information was reflected in more detail so that the model could be more realistic than previous studies. In this study, value iteration algorithms and deterministic methods were used to derive a path that allows the military flight personnel in distress to move to the shortest distance while making the most of the topographical advantages. In addition, it was intended to add the reality of the model by adding actual topographic information and obstacles that the military flight personnel in distress can meet in the process of escape and escape. Through this, it was possible to predict through which route the military flight personnel would escape and escape in the actual situation. The model presented in this study can be applied to various operational situations through redesign of the reward structure. In actual situations, decision support based on scientific techniques that reflect various factors in predicting the escape route of the military flight personnel in distress and conducting combat search and rescue operations will be possible.

Cost Estimation of Case-Based Reasoning Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm - Focusing on Local Search Method Using Correlation Analysis - (혼합형 유전자 알고리즘을 적용한 사례기반추론 공사비예측 - 상관분석을 이용한 지역탐색 기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Sangsun;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, Inseok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2020
  • Estimates of project costs in the early stages of a construction project have a significant impact on the operator's decision-making in important matters, such as the site's decision or the construction period. However, it is difficult to carry out the initial stage with confidence because information such as design books and specifications is not available. In previous studies, case-based reasoning was used to predict initial construction costs, and genetic algorithms were used to calculate the weight of the inquiry phase among them. However, some say that it is difficult to perform better than the current year because existing genetic algorithms are calculated in random numbers. To overcome these limitations, correlation numbers using correlation analysis rather than random numbers are reflected in the genetic algorithm by method of local search, and weights are calculated using a hybrid genetic algorithm that combines local search and genetic algorithms. A case-based reasoning model was developed using the weights calculated and validated with the data. As a result, it was found that the hybrid GA-CBR applied with local search performed better than the existing GA-CBR.

Vertical Handover between LTE and Wireless LAN Systems based on Common Radio Resource Management (CRRM) and Generic Link Layer (GLL) (LTE/WLAN 이종망 환경에서 범용링크계층과 통합무선자 원관리 기법이 적용된 VHO 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Sub;Oh, Ryong;Lee, Sang-Joon;Yoon, Suk-Ho;Ryu, Seung-Wan;Cho, Choong-Ho
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2010
  • For the next generation mobile communication system, diverse wireless network techniques such as beyond 3G LTE, WiMAX/WiBro, and next generation WLAN etc. are proceeding to the form integrated into the All-IP core network. According to this development, Beyond 3G integrated into heterogeneous wireless access technologies must support the vertical handover and network to be used of several radio networks. However, unified management of each network is demanded since it is individually serviced. Therefore, in order to solve this problem this study is introducing the theory of Common Radio Resource Management (CRRM) based on Generic Link Layer (GLL). This study designs the structure and functions to support the vertical handover and propose the vertical handover algorithm of which policy-based and MCDM are composed between LTE and WLAN systems using GLL and CRRM. Finally, simulation results are presented to show the improved performance over the data throughput, handover success rate and the system service cost.

A study on the Application of XML based Annotation for National Base Digital Map (XML기반 국가공간데이터의 주석 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Gu-Ho;Seok, Hyun-Jeong;Kim, Young-Sup
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.4 no.1 s.7
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2002
  • The OGC(OpenGIS Consortium), which is standardization organization of geographic data, have been studied standard for geographic data such as GML and GML based annotation for image and map. Annotation for map is applicable in various ways, understanding about geographic data, decision making and exchange of communication. For instance, Map annotation can be used for highlighting tour-course as symbols or explaining it as text on a map in tourism. This study suggests some annotation methodology for national digital map and presents a simple implementation of it. Firstly, this study suggests a way of updating OGC annotation schema which corresponds with DXF format and creating a GML application schema using the updated OGC annotation schema. Also it suggest a way of converting instance documents of annotated map to VML document with XSLT and VML for display. Later, it is needed to study for supporting another formats as well as DXF format. In addition, it is needed to study for managing the history of updated map entity with annotation in Local governments UIS(Urban Information System) in practical aspects.

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Statistical Radial Basis Function Model for Pattern Classification (패턴분류를 위한 통계적 RBF 모델)

  • Choi Jun-Hyeog;Rim Kee-Wook;Lee Jung-Hyun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • According to the development of the Internet and the pervasion of Data Base, it is not easy to search for necessary information from the huge amounts of data. In order to do efficient analysis of a large amounts of data, this paper proposes a method for pattern classification based on the effective strategy for dimension reduction for narrowing down the whole data to what users wants to search for. To analyze data effectively, Radial Basis Function Networks based on VC-dimension of Support Vector Machine, a model of statistical teaming, is proposed in this paper. The model of Radial Basis Function Networks currently used performed the preprocessing of Perceptron model whereas the model proposed in this paper, performing independent analysis on VD-dimension, classifies each datum putting precise labels on it. The comparison and estimation of various models by using Machine Learning Data shows that the model proposed in this paper proves to be more efficient than various sorts of algorithm previously used.

Application of Social Big Data Analysis for CosMedical Cosmetics Marketing : H Company Case Study (기능성 화장품 마케팅의 소셜 빅데이터 분석 활용 : H사 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Sin-Hae;Ku, Dong-Young;Kim, Jeoung-Kun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.7
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to analyze the cosmedical cosmetics market and the nature of customer through the social big data analysis. More than 80,000 posts were analyzed using R program. After data cleansing, keyword frequency analysis and association analysis were performed to understand customer needs and competitor positioning, formulated several implications for marketing strategy sophistication and implementation. Analysis results show that "prevention" is a new and essential attribute for appealing target customers. The expansion of the product line for the gift market is also suggested. It has been shown that there is a high correlation with products that can be complementary to each other. In addition to the traditional marketing technique, the social big data analysis based on evidence was useful in deriving the characteristics of the customers and the market that had not been identified before. Word2vec algorithm will be beneficial to find additional.

Statistical Data Extraction and Validation from Graph for Data Integration and Meta-analysis (데이터통합과 메타분석을 위한 그래프 통계량 추출과 검증)

  • Sung Ryul Shim;Yo Hwan Lim;Myunghee Hong;Gyuseon Song;Hyun Wook Han
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2021
  • The objective of this study was to describe specific approaches for data extraction from graph when statistical information is not directly reported in some articles, enabling data intergration and meta-analysis for quantitative data synthesis. Particularly, meta-analysis is an important analysis tool that allows the right decision making for evidence-based medicine by systematically and objectively selects target literature, quantifies the results of individual studies, and provides the overall effect size. For data integration and meta-analysis, we investigated the strength points about the introduction and application of Adobe Acrobet Reader and Python-based Jupiter Lab software, a computer tool that extracts accurate statistical figures from graphs. We used as an example data that was statistically verified throught an previous studies and the original data could be obtained from ClinicalTrials.gov. As a result of meta-analysis of the original data and the extraction values of each computer software, there was no statistically significant difference between the extraction methods. In addition, the intra-rater reliability of between researchers was confirmed and the consistency was high. Therefore, In terms of maintaining the integrity of statistical information, measurement using a computational tool is recommended rather than the classically used methods.

A Study on the Fraud Detection for Electronic Prepayment using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 선불전자지급수단의 이상금융거래 탐지 연구)

  • Choi, Byung-Ho;Cho, Nam-Wook
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.65-77
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    • 2022
  • Due to the recent development in electronic financial services, transactions of electronic prepayment are rapidly growing, leading to growing fraud attempts. This paper proposes a methodology that can effectively detect fraud transactions in electronic prepayment by machine learning algorithms, including support vector machines, decision trees, and artificial neural networks. Actual transaction data of electronic prepayment services were collected and preprocessed to extract the most relevant variables from raw data. Two different approaches were explored in the paper. One is a transaction-based approach, and the other is a user ID-based approach. For the transaction-based approach, the first model is primarily based on raw data features, while the second model uses extra features in addition to the first model. The user ID-based approach also used feature engineering to extract and transform the most relevant features. Overall, the user ID-based approach showed a better performance than the transaction-based approach, where the artificial neural networks showed the best performance. The proposed method could be used to reduce the damage caused by financial accidents by detecting and blocking fraud attempts.

A Development of Hotel Bankruptcy Prediction Model on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망 기반 호텔 부도예측모형 개발)

  • Choi, Sung-Ju;Lee, Sang-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2014
  • This paper develops a bankruptcy prediction model on an Artificial Neural Network for hotel management. A bankruptcy prediction model has a specific feature to predict a bankruptcy of the whole hotel business after evaluate bankruptcy possibility on the basis of business performance data of each branch. here are many traditional statistical models for bankruptcy prediction such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis or Logit Analysis. However, we chose Artificial Neural Network because the method has accuracy rates of prediction better than those of other methods. We first selected 100 good enterprises and 100 bankrupt enterprises as experimental data and set up a bankruptcy prediction model by use of a tool for Artificial Neural Network, NeuroShell. The model and its experiments, which demonstrated high efficiency, can certainly provide great help in decision making in the field of hotel management and in deciding on the bankruptcy or financial solidity of each branch of serviced residence hotel.