• Title/Summary/Keyword: 데이터 기반 의사결정

Search Result 778, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

An efficient Decision-Making using the extended Fuzzy AHP Method(EFAM) (확장된 Fuzzy AHP를 이용한 효율적인 의사결정)

  • Ryu, Kyung-Hyun;Pi, Su-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
    • /
    • v.19 no.6
    • /
    • pp.828-833
    • /
    • 2009
  • WWW which is an applicable massive set of document on the Web is a thesaurus of various information for users. However, Search engines spend a lot of time to retrieve necessary information and to filter out unnecessary information for user. In this paper, we propose the EFAM(the Extended Fuzzy AHP Method) model to manage the Web resource efficiently, and to make a decision in the problem of specific domain definitely. The EFAM model is concerned with the emotion analysis based on the domain corpus information, and it composed with systematic common concept grids by the knowledge of multiple experts. Therefore, The proposed the EFAM model can extract the documents by considering on the emotion criteria in the semantic context that is extracted concept from the corpus of specific domain and confirms that our model provides more efficient decision-making through an experiment than the conventional methods such as AHP and Fuzzy AHP which describe as a hierarchical structure elements about decision-making based on the alternatives, evaluation criteria, subjective attribute weight and fuzzy relation between concept and object.

A study on the use of a Business Intelligence system : the role of explanations (비즈니스 인텔리전스 시스템의 활용 방안에 관한 연구: 설명 기능을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, YoungOk
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.155-169
    • /
    • 2014
  • With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization's ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users' advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor's reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor's decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users' advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users' evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers. Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system-generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions. The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users' acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.

A Study on the Platform Design for Housing Market Analysis (주택시장 분석을 위한 플랫폼 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Hun;Oh, Jung-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
    • /
    • 2017.04a
    • /
    • pp.445-446
    • /
    • 2017
  • 효과적인 주택정책의 수립을 위해서는 인구, 가구, 주택 수 및 가격 등 다양하고 정확한 데이터가 필요하다. 최근 데이터에 기반한 다양한 의사결정 지원 및 분석시스템이 등장하고 있으며 빅데이터를 통한 분석의 필요성은 꾸준히 대두되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 행정시스템 및 데이터를 기반으로 주택시장을 분석하기 위한 오픈 플랫폼 기반의 통합 플랫폼을 구현하는 것을 목표로 최신 기술 및 요구사항을 반영한 설계적 접근 방법을 제시하는 것을 목적으로 한다.

A Comparative Study on the Accuracy of Important Statistical Prediction Techniques for Marketing Data (마케팅 데이터를 대상으로 중요 통계 예측 기법의 정확성에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Cho, Min-Ho
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.775-780
    • /
    • 2019
  • Techniques for predicting the future can be categorized into statistics-based and deep-run-based techniques. Among them, statistic-based techniques are widely used because simple and highly accurate. However, working-level officials have difficulty using many analytical techniques correctly. In this study, we compared the accuracy of prediction by applying multinomial logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, and Bayesian inference to marketing related data. The same marketing data was used, and analysis was conducted by using R. The prediction results of various techniques reflecting the data characteristics of the marketing field will be a good reference for practitioners.

Portfolio optimization strategy based on financial ratios (재무비율을 활용한 포트폴리오 최적화 전략)

  • Choi, Jung Yong;Kim, Jiwoo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1481-1500
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study examines the stability and excellence of portfolio investment strategies based on the accounting information of the Korean stock market. In the process of constructing the portfolio, various combinations of financial ratios are used to select the stocks with high expected return and to measure their performance. We also tried to improve our investment performance by using genetic algorithm optimization. The results of this study show that portfolio strategies using accounting information are effective for investment decision making and can achieve high investment performance. We also verify that portfolio strategy using genetic algorithms can be effective for investment decision making.

Introduction to Visual Analytics Research (비주얼 애널리틱스 연구 소개)

  • Oh, Yousang;Lee, Chunggi;Oh, Juyoung;Yang, Jihyeon;Kwag, Heena;Moon, Seongwoo;Park, Sohwan;Ko, Sungahn
    • Journal of the Korea Computer Graphics Society
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.27-36
    • /
    • 2016
  • As big data become more complex than ever, there has been a need for various techniques and approaches to better analyze and explore such big data. A research discipline of visual analytics has been proposed to help users' visual data analysis and decision-making. Since 2006 when the first symposium of visual analytics was held, the visual analytics research has become popular as the advanced technology in computer graphics, data mining, and human-computer interaction has been incorporated in visual analytics. In this work we introduce the visual analytics research by reviewing and surveying the papers published in IEEE VAST 2015 in terms of data and visualization techniques to help domestics researchers' understanding on visual analytics.

A Study for Bigdata Service Interworking on Real-Time Military Defense Cloud (실시간 의사결정 정보 지원을 위한 국방 클라우드-빅데이터 서비스 연동 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Ga-Won;Park, Jun Young;Kim, Yong Hyun;Huh, Eui-Nam
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
    • /
    • 2016.04a
    • /
    • pp.61-63
    • /
    • 2016
  • 국방 정보화의 기조인 네트워크 중심의 디지털 정예강군 실현을 위해 공통 서비스 환경인 클라우드 컴퓨팅 기반 환경 구축 및 전장 정보의 실시간 공유, 서비스 기반 정보 시스템 제공은 필수적이다. 이를 위해서는 국방 특성에 맞는 클라우드 구조 확립이 필요하며, 본 논문에서는 실시간 의사결정 정보 지원을 위한 국방 특성을 살펴보고 클라우드 구성을 설계한다.

A Study on the Autonomous Decision Right of Emotional AI based on Analysis of 4th Wave Technology Availability in the Hyper-Linkage (무한연결시 4차 산업기술의 이용 가능성 분석을 통한 감성 인공 지능의 자율 결정권에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Dae-Sung
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
    • /
    • v.9 no.8
    • /
    • pp.9-19
    • /
    • 2019
  • The effects of artificial intelligence technology is social science research as research on the impact on industry and changes in daily life, etc. This means that developing 'emotion AI' will prepare 'next-generation 3D-vector-sensitive AI'. This suggests the main keywords of the tertiary AI decision-making power. Particularly important results will be achieved because of the importance of current unethical learning and the implementation of decision-making systems that reflect ethical value judgments. This is a data based simulation, and required (1)Available data, (2)the technology for the goal of simulation. This takes into account the general content of the intended simulation based research. Currently, existing researches focus on meaningful research motivation, but this study presents the direction of technology. So, empirical analysis is consistent with the decision-making power of each country vs. new technology firms for AI on ehtic responsibility. As a result, there is a need for a concrete contribution and interpretation that can be achieved for the ethic Responsibility, on the technical side of AI / ML. In AI decision making, analytic power of human empathy should be included tech own trust.

A Study on the Knowledge Base Development of Expert System for Naval Combat System (해군 전투체계 지원용 전문가시스템의 지식베이스 개발에 관한 연구(구축함 중심))

  • 김화수;이정훈
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
    • /
    • 2002.11a
    • /
    • pp.183-192
    • /
    • 2002
  • 본 논문에서는 구축함의 대공방어분야에 대한 업무를 IDEF0기능 모델링 방법을 통해 체계적으로 분석하였으며 미국방성의 산하기구인 DARPA에서 연구한 CPOF(Command Post Of Future) 의사결정 모델을 토대로 구축함의 대공방어분야에서 상황평가 단계에 대한 의사결정 과정을 심도 깊게 분석하였다. 또한 구축함의 대공방어분야에서 분석된 업무수행 절차를 토대로 상황평가 단계에서 의사결정과정에 따른 필요한 규칙집합을 식별하고 규칙집합 내부의 규칙들을 효과적으로 추출하기 위하여 규칙집합들에 대한 정의, 규칙에 입력되는 데이터, 규칙집합의 결과값, 규칙집합간의 상호관계를 분석하였다. 이러한 도메인 지식개발은 장차 해군 전투체계 지원용 전문가시스템을 개발하는데 중요한 기회기반이 될 것이다.

  • PDF

Customer Churning Forecasting and Strategic Implication in Online Auto Insurance using Decision Tree Algorithms (의사결정나무를 이용한 온라인 자동차 보험 고객 이탈 예측과 전략적 시사점)

  • Lim, Se-Hun;Hur, Yeon
    • Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.125-134
    • /
    • 2006
  • This article adopts a decision tree algorithm(C5.0) to predict customer churning in online auto insurance environment. Using a sample of on-line auto insurance customers contracts sold between 2003 and 2004, we test how decision tree-based model(C5.0) works on the prediction of customer churning. We compare the result of C5.0 with those of logistic regression model(LRM), multivariate discriminant analysis(MDA) model. The result shows C5.0 outperforms other models in the predictability. Based on the result, this study suggests a way of setting marketing strategy and of developing online auto insurance business.