• Survey Research
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.113-134
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• 2012

It is very vital for the presidential preference not only to be a political achievement of the president himself, but also to be an influential base of people-related policy and its implementation. The purpose of this study is to provide the newly developing ideas to compose an appropriate question and to point out the present problems in the utilization of survey results. At first, it turned out to be inappropriate to make a question for evaluation of presidential job approval in the perspective of questionnaire planning. As the respondents were not informed of what the president did, so they were more likely not to know whether the president did well or not. Secondly, the correlation analysis has been made between the evaluation question of the presidential job approval and policy-related questions including the direct one for the presidential preference in the aspect of statistical analysis. Through this process, evaluation of the presidential job approval is not accountable and the direct question for the presidential preference is at best explainable. In conclusion, it seems more persuasive to compare the statistical outcome of the presidential preference which has been derived of to the high rating what the respondents think comprehensively not depending on a subjective decision by mass media.

• Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.63-81
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to provide the newly developing ideas to compose an appropriate question and to point out the present problems in the utilization of survey result. It is very vital for the presidential preference not only to be a political achievement of the President himself, but also to be a influential base of people-related policy and its implementation. At first, it turned out to be inappropriate to make a question for the evaluation of presidential working performance in the perspective of questionnaire planning. As the respondents were not informed of what the President did, so they were more likely not to know whether the President did well or not. Secondly, the correlation analysis has been made between the evaluation question of the presidential working performance and policy-related questions including the direct one for the presidential preference in the aspect of statistical analysis. Through this process, the evaluation of the presidential working performance is not accountable and the direct question for the presidential preference is at best explainable. In conclusion, it seems more persuasive to compare the statistical outcome of the presidential preference which has been derived of to the high rating what the respondents think comprehensively not depending on a subjective decision by mass media.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.303-310
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• 1996

1987년도와 1992년도에 한국 갤럽에서 대통령 선거 결과를 예측하기 위하여 실시한 바 있는 여론 조사 결과를 그래픽으로 분석하였다. 1987년도에는 각 후보에 대한 직접적인 지지도보다 종교별 후보 지지도 예측에 발표의 촛점이 맞춰져 있었으므로 이 발표 결과를 다각적으로 분석하였고, 1992년도에는 각 후보의 직접적인 지지도 분석에 촛점을 두었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.1523-1529
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• 2017

신정부의 탈원전 정책에 의해 급속하게 원자력계를 둘러싼 환경이 변하고 있다. 지금까지의 정부가 추진해온 원자력 중심의 전원계획이 신재생에너지 확대를 위한 계획으로 변화되어 가고 있다. 그리고 이러한 정부 정책 추진의 중심에는 매우 높은 대통령 지지율이 기반이 되고 있다. 하지만 여러 여론 조사 결과를 살펴보면 대통령은 약 65% 내외의 지지를 기록함에도 불구하고 원자력 활용에 대해서는 찬반 의견이 매우 팽팽하다. 즉, 원자력에 대한 이슈가 최근 에너지, 경제 문제가 아닌 정치 이슈가 된 상황에서도 원자력에 대해 지지를 보여주는 집단이 존재한다는 것을 뜻한다. 하지만 원자력을 지지하는 일반인들이 정치권과 탈핵 시민단체에서 원자력 분야를 소위 '적폐'로 규정하고 '원자력 마피아'로 명명한 상태에서 원자력에 대해 드러내놓고 지지하는 것은 쉽지 않다. 따라서 본 연구는 우리나라의 어떠한 계층에서 원자력을 지지하는지, 즉 'Shy Nuclear'를 찾고 이 지지층들의 특징에 대해서 분석하였다. 지지층 분류를 위해서 머신러닝의 분류분석 기법인 Decision Tree Analysis(의사결정나무) 방법론을 활용하였다. 분석 결과 Shy Nuclear를 결정하는 주 요인은 거주지역으로 나타났다. 아울러 수도권에 거주하고 있는 사무/관리/전문직/퇴직자 집단이 가장 원자력에 높은 호감도(긍정 76.1%)를 보여주었다.

• 해운
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• no.11 s.10
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• pp.21-26
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• 2004

11월2일 실시된 미국 대통령선거에서 조지 W 부시 대통령의 재선이 확정됨에 따라 세계 각국은 자국에 미치는 영향을 분석하기에 바쁘다. 부시를 공개적으로 지지한 일본과 호주 등은 표정관리에도 불구하고 들뜬 분위기를 애써 숨기려하지 않고 있다. 이러한 가운데 산업연구원 연구위원이 '부시 재선이 한국경제에 미칠 영향'에 대한 연구보고서를 내놓았다. 다음은 보고서의 전문을 풀어쓴 것이다.(편집자 주)

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.79-106
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• 2019

Local governments within the boundaries of a state need increasing flexibility to satisfy diverse economic, social, and environmental goals in their particular geographical setting. However, many candidates in the local election in South Korea tend to see local politics as an extension of national-level politics. In particular, this paper mainly deals with how the voters' evaluation of a president's performance has influenced subnational elections in South Korea. Our analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent president in both economic development and foreign affairs.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.5-29
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• 2018

This paper aims at making an assessment about the first year of the Moon Jae-in government. President Moon was elected amid political insecurity over the impeachment of then-president Park Geun-hye. However, the Moon administration settled in fairly smoothly despite no transition period of presidential power. Political and economic stability was soon restored, and the tensions between the US and North Korea over the North's nuclear weapons program were, to some extent, managed along with the agreement of the North-South summit and the US-North Korea summit. Pyeongchang hosted the 2018 winter olympics and paralympics successfully. Moon continued very positive approval ratings of higher than 70%. However, he has something to be desired. His leadership seems to rely heavily on a limited number of close staff in the Blue House, alienating the governing the Minjoo Party of Korea. He should build better relationship with opposition parties particularly given a divided government. Rectification of the lingering negative practices should also produce institutional solutions. Above all, Moon should carefully watch out to prevent scandals over corruption and power abuse around him and his family, which would lead to a precipitous decline of the approval ratings and the abrupt weakening of the leadership.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.215-231
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• 2017

The US presidential primaries take place sequentially in different places with a time lag. However, they have not attracted as much attention in terms of modelling as the US presidential election has. This study applied several autologistic models to find the relation between the outcome of the primary election for a Democrat candidate with socioeconomic attributes in consideration of spatial and temporal dependence. According to the result applied to the 2016 election data at the county level, Hillary Clinton was supported by people in counties with high population rates of old age, Black, female and Hispanic. In addition, spatial dependence was observed, representing that people were likely to support the same candidate who was supported from neighboring counties. Positive auto-correlation was also observed in the time-series of the election outcome. Among several autologistic models of this study, the model specifying the effect of Super Tuesday had the best fit.

• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.147-177
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• 2017

Although a number of empirical studies found that political ideology plays a significant role in Korean elections, they entirely rely on cross-sectional data analysis. In contrast to previous research, this study investigates the effects of ideology in the 2012 Korean presidential election through standard panel data analysis. Specifically, using "EAI Panel Study, 2012", the effects of ideology on both candidate evaluation and vote choice were examined via fixed effects, random effects, and pooled regression analysis. And the results from applying the two most popular models of ideological voting, the proximity model and the directional change model were also compared. The results show that candidate evaluations and vote choice during the election (April, 2012- December, 2012) were significantly influenced by the ideological difference between voters and candidates, independent from partisanship and other standard socio-demographic factors. And this ideological voting during the election seems better captured by the directional change model than by the proximity model.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.375-385
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• 2009

For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.