• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the groundwater level behavior of Geum river basin ($9,645.5km^2$) under future climate change scenario projection periods (2020s: 2010~2039, 2050s: 2040~2069, 2080s: 2070~2099) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005~2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 2 locations (DCD, YDD), ground water level data at 5 locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, BYBY), and three years (2012~2015) daily multi-function weir inflow at 3 locations (SJW, GJW, BJW). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.57~0.67 and 0.87~0.94, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.69~0.73 and 0.63~0.73 respectively. For the three weir inflow and storage, the NSE was 0.68~0.70 and 0.94~0.99, and the $R^2$ was 0.83~0.86 and 0.48~0.61 respectively. The average $R^2$ for groundwater level was from 0.53 to 0.61. Under the future temperature increase of $4.3^{\circ}C$ and precipitation increase of 6.9% in 2080s (2070~2099) based on the historical periods (1976~2005) from HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 scenario, the future groundwater level shows decrease of -13.0 cm, -5.0 cm, -9.0 cm at 3 upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR) and increase of +3.0 cm, +1.0 cm at 2 downstream locations (CASS, BYBY) respectively. The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge by the future seasonal spatial variation of rainfall in the watershed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.7
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• pp.567-579
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• 2015

This study performed the non-stationary flood frequency analysis considering time-varying parameters of a probability density function. Also, return period and risk under non-stationary condition were estimated. A stationary model and three non-stationary models using Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) were developed. The only location parameter was assumed as time-varying parameter in the first model. In second model, the only scale parameter was assumed as time-varying parameter. Finally, the both parameters were assumed as time varying parameter in the last model. Relative likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion were used to select appropriate model. The suggested procedure in this study was applied to eight multipurpose dams in South Korea. Using relative likelihood ratio test and Akaike information criterion it is shown that the inflow into the Hapcheon dam and the Seomjingang dam were suitable for non-stationary GEV model but the other six dams were suitable for stationary GEV model. Also, it is shown that the estimated return period under non-stationary condition was shorter than those estimated under stationary condition.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.271-296
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• 2021

Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.725-736
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• 2009

A flood event can be defined by three characteristics; peak discharge, total flood volume, and flood duration, which are correlated each other. However, a conventional flood frequency analysis for the hydrological plan, design, and operation has focused on evaluating only the amount of peak discharge. The interpretation of this univariate flood frequency analysis has a limitation in describing the complex probability behavior of flood events. This study proposed a bivariate flood frequency analysis using a Gumbel mixed model for the flood evaluation. A time series of annual flood events was extracted from observations of inflow to the Soyang River Dam and the Daechung Dam, respectively. The joint probability distribution and return period were derived from the relationship between the amount of peak discharge and the total volume of flood runoff. The applicability of the Gumbel mixed model was tested by comparing the return periods acquired from the proposed bivariate analysis and the conventional univariate analysis.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.3B
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• pp.257-267
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• 2010

A flood event can be characterized by three attributes such as peak discharge, total flood volume, and flood duration, which are correlated each other. However, the amount of peak discharge is only used to evaluate the flood events for the hydrological plan and design. The univariate analysis has a limitation in describing the complex probability behavior of flood events. Thus, the univariate analysis cannot derive satisfying results in flood frequency analysis. This study proposed bivariate flood frequency analysis methods for evaluating flood events considering correlations among attributes of flood events. Parametric distributions such as Gumbel mixed model and bivariate gamma distribution, and a non-parametric model using a bivariate kernel function were introduced in this study. A time series of annual flood events were extracted from observations of inflow to the Soyang River Dam and the Daechung Dam, respectively. The joint probability distributions and return periods were derived from the relationship between the amount of peak discharge and the total volume of flood runoff. Applicabilities of bivariate flood frequency analysis were examined by comparing the return period acquired from the proposed bivariate analyses and the conventional univariate analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.148-148
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• 2023

산업 고도화로 인하여 복잡하고 다양한 유기물의 사용량이 증가하였으며, 공공수역 내 새로운 오염물질이 유입됨에 따라 생화학적 산소요구량(BOD) 중심의 수질평가에 한계를 나타내었다. 이후 난분해성 물질을 고려한 유기물관리 정책과 총량관리의 필요성이 제기되었고 국내 하천과 호소에서는 총 유기탄소(TOC)를 유기물 관리지표로 설정하였다. 그러나 부영양 하천과 호소에서 TOC는 외부 부하뿐만아니라 식물플랑크톤의 과잉성장에 의해 증가할 수 있는 항목이므로 TOC 관리정책 추진을 위해서는 유기물의 기원에 대한 파악이 필요하다. 한편, 우리나라와 같이 몬순 기후대에 속한 댐 저수지의 경우 강우시 유입하는 탁수에 의해 다량의 유기물과 인이 유입되기도 하지만 식물플랑크톤의 제한요인 중 광량에 많은 영향을 미친다. 식물플랑크톤의 광합성은 수체 내 유기탄소 내부생성에 매우 중요한 요소이나 점 단위의 실험적 방법을 활용한 유기탄소 순환 해석은 저수지의 시·공간적인 변동성을 고려하기에 한계가 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 금강 수계 최대 상수원인 대청호를 대상으로 3차원 수리-수질 모델을 적용하여 유기탄소 성분 별 유입과 유출, 내부생성 및 소멸량을 평가하고 탁수가 저수지에서의 유기탄소 순환에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 있다. 유기탄소 물질수지 해석을 위해 AEM3D 모델을 사용하였으며 2018년을 대상으로 입력자료를 구축한 후 보정 및 검정을 수행하였다. 모델은 유기탄소를 입자성, 용존성, 그리고 난분해성과 생분해성으로 구분하여 모의하며 유기물질 성상별 실험결과를 이용하여 입력자료를 구축하였으며 유기탄소순환 해석을 위해 4가지의 탄소성분과 조류 세포 내 탄소의 질량 변화율을 계산하였다. 이를 위해 외부 유입·유출부하율, 수체 내 생성(일차생산, 재부상, 퇴적물과 수체 간 확산) 및 소멸률(POC 및 조류 침강, DOC 무기화, 탈질)을 고려하였으며 탁수의 영향을 분석하기 위해 탁수 포함여부 시나리오를 구성하고 유기탄소 생성 및 소멸기작별 변동성을 비교 분석하였다. 모델은 2018년의 물수지를 적절히 재현하였으며 저수지의 수온 및 탁도 성층구조를 잘 재현해내면서 전반적인 수질을 적절하게 모의하였다. 탁수를 고려하였을 시 연간 TOC 부하량 중 내부기원 부하량은 56% 수준이였으나 탁수를 배제한 경우 내부기원 부하량은 82%로 나타났다. 특히, 연평균 Chl-a 농도가 44~48% 차이가 발생하면서 1차생산량이 약 4배가량 증가하였다. 몬순지역에서의 탁수는 체류시간이 긴 성층 저수지에서 식물플랑크톤 성장제어에 큰 영향을 미쳤으며 전반적인 유기탄소 순환을 해석하는데 있어 매우 중요한 인자로 작용하였다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1051-1061
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• 2010

This study hydrologically re-analysed the Muskingum channel routing method to represent it as a linear combination of the linear channel model considering only the translation and the linear reservoir model considering only the storage effect. The resulting model becomes a kind of instantaneous unit hydrograph, whose parameters are identical to those of the Muskingum model. That is, the outflow occurs after the routing interval ${\Delta}t$ or concentration time $T_c$, and among the total amount of inflow, the x portion is translated by the linear channel model and the remaining (1-x) portion is routed by the linear reservoir model with the storage coefficient ��$K_c$. The application result of both the Muskingum channel routing method and its corresponding instantaneous unit hydrograph to an imaginary channel showed that these two models are basically identical. This result was also assured by the application to the channel flood routing to the Kumnam and Gongju Station for the discharge from the Daechung Dam.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.62-62
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• 2021

산업 고도화로 인하여 복잡하고 다양한 유기물의 사용량이 증가하였으며, 공공수역 내 새로운 오염물질이 유입됨에 따라 생화학적 산소요구량(BOD) 중심의 수질평가에 한계를 나타내었다. 이후 난분해성 물질을 고려한 유기물관리 정책과 총량관리의 필요성이 제기되었고 국내 하천과 호소에서는 총 유기탄소(TOC)를 유기물 관리지표로 설정하였다. 그러나 부영양 하천과 호소에서 TOC는 외부 부하뿐만아니라 식물플랑크톤의 과잉성장에 의해 증가할 수 있는 항목이므로 TOC 관리정책 추진을 위해서는 유기물의 기원에 대한 파악이 필요하다. 특히, 국내 하천에서 나타나고 있는 난분해성 유기물 오염도의 증가 추세에 대응한 실효성 있는 유기물 오염관리 정책을 수립하기 위해서는 다양한 유기물의 근원을 정확하게 파악하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 금강 수계 최대 상수원인 대청호를 대상으로 3차원 수리-수질 모델을 적용하여 유기탄소 성분 별 유입과 유출, 내부생성 및 소멸량을 평가하고 저수지시스템에서의 유기탄소 물질수지를 해석하는 데 있다. 유기탄소 물질수지 해석을 위해 AEM3D 모델을 사용하였으며 2017년을 대상으로 입력자료를 구축한 후 보정을 수행하였고 2018년을 대상으로 모델을 검정하였다. 모델은 유기탄소를 입자성, 용존성, 그리고 난분해성과 생분해성으로 구분하여 모의하며 유기물질 성상별 실험결과를 이용하여 입력자료를 구축하였다. 유기탄소 물질수지 해석을 위해 4가지의 탄소성분과 조류 세포 내 탄소의 질량 변화율을 계산하였다. 이를 위해 외부 유입·유출부하율, 수체 내 생성(일차생산, 재부상, 퇴적물과 수체 간 확산) 및 소멸률(POC 및 조류 침강, DOC 무기화, 탈질)을 고려하였다. 모델은 2017년과 2018년의 물수지를 적절히 재현하였으며 저수지의 성층구조를 잘 재현해내면서 전반적인 수온, 수질을 적절하게 모의하였다. 연간 TOC 부하량 중 내부기원 부하량은 2017년 68.4 %, 2018년은 높은 강우량의 영향으로 55.0%로 산정되었다. 내부 소멸 기작 중 침전으로 인한 손실이 가장 높은 것으로 나타났으며, 2017년과 2018년 각각 31.3%, 29.0%로 나타났다. TOC의 공간분포는 Chl-a 농도 분포와 유사하게 나타났으며, 댐 설치로 형성된 정체수역은 유역의 유기물 순환에 많은 영향을 미치는 것으로 평가되었다. TOC 관리 정책 기초자료 확보를 위해서는 향후 유역-저수지 시스템을 연계한 유기물 물질순환 심층 연구가 필요하다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.231-238
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• 2017

Water supply safety index plays an important role on assessing the water supply capacity of hydrologic system. Due to the absence of consistent guidance, however, practical problems have been brought up on data period used for dam design and performance evaluation. Therefore, this study employed bivariate drought frequency analysis which is able to consider drought severity and duration simultaneously, in order to evaluate water supply capacity of multi-purpose dams. Drought characteristics were analyzed based on the probabilistic approach, and water supply capacity of five multi-purpose dams in Korea (Soyang River, Chungju, Andong, Daecheong, Seomjin River) were evaluated under the specific drought conditions. As a result, it would be possible to have stable water supply with their own inflow during summer and fall, whereas water shortage would occur even under the 1-year return period drought event during spring and winter due to low rainfall.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.153-175
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• 2016

Daecheong Reservoir has suffered eutrophication and water-blooms by blue-green algae from initial impoundment, and algae alert system (AAS) was introduced in 1997. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of rainfall and hydrological factors in increase or decrease variability of green-tide and prolonged AAS, studied and analyzed the current situation of AAS has been operating for 19 years (1997~2015) in Daecheong Reservoir. The total issued number of AAS was 46 times, the most frequent period in August and September were 22 times (752 days) and 16 times (431 days), respectively, it accounted for 82.6%. Many number and frequency during this period were significantly associated with rainfall, various discharge and water level. Rainfall and hydrological events are associated with the rainy season of monsoon-Changma and the typhoon, it was concentrated in June~September, total rainfall in this period accounted for 69.9% of the annual rainfall. An increase in inflows was dependent on the intensity, frequency and the amount of rainfall. Accounted for 68.4% of the total annual inflow, it was a time when the most rapidly changing hydrological variability in the reservoir. The total outflow was closely related to rainfall, and compared the distinctive characteristics of hydropower generation and watergate-spillway discharge. In addition, the upreservoir zone of Daecheong Reservoir could be vulnerable to green-tide by regulating discharge of the upstream dam. The issue of AAS was strongly related to the with and without of watergate-spillway discharge. The watergate-spillway discharge had a total of 25 times, it was maximum 17 days from July to September in the year. And the opening times and each duration of the watergate were 1~4 times and the range of 3~37 days, respectively. When the watergate opened, the issue of AAS was maintained to 13 years and the movement of water bodies and green-tide was great about five times than that of non-open, had a profound effect on prolonged AAS within reservoir. In Daecheong Reservoir, Chusori (CHU) area of the So-ok Stream was still showing serious symptoms green-tide levels in the summer, but Janggye (JAN) waters of the main reservoir was pointed out that more important. AAS will be operated by an absolutely consider the rainfall and hydrological effects around the watergate-spillway discharge. The measures of green-tide will be included in the limnological studies more suited to the characteristics of the watershed and reservoir of the our country. Finally, from now on, we will prepare the systematic management and guidelines for vulnerable zone water-blooms that are the source within the reservoir before the monsoon rather than waiting for the arrival of green-tide on the operating stations of AAS.