• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.305-336
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• 2022

This study applied the macro-micro simulation model (i.e., what-if analysis) to investigate the impact of transport related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on poverty and income inequality in Laos. We selected Laos as a case study of a developing country. We used the standard GTAP model with the GTAP database (version 10) for the macrosimulation, whereas we used the household model with the latest Lao household data from 2019 for the microsimulation. Our findings revealed that the output of the Lao economy was anticipated to increase by up to 0.3%, while the poverty rate was anticipated to decline from 17.0% to 15.7%. However, there would be winners and losers in industries and groups of households in different areas. In particular, rich households with a comparative socioeconomic advantage, such as in education, engagement in nonfarm business, and infrastructure access, would mostly gain benefits; consequently, this would lead to higher inequality in Laos. Therefore, the inequality index (i.e., the Gini coefficient) would increase from 41.2 to 60.1. After a simulation of BRI transport, we also found that some nonpoor households, which are mainly associated with farm activities and lower educational levels, would fall into poverty.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.279-304
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• 2022

This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea's de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.33-60
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• 2023

This paper analyzes the entire distribution of stock market returns/volatility in five emerging markets (ASEAN5) and figures out the conditional distribution of the CHI_EPU index. The aim is to examine the impact of CHI_EPU on the stock returns/volatility density of ASEAN5 markets. It also examined whether changes in CHI_EPU explain returns at higher or lower points (abnormal returns). This paper models the behaviour of stock returns from March 2011 to June 2018 using a non-parametric conditional density estimation approach. The results indicate that CHI_EPU diminishes stock returns and augments volatility in ASEAN5 markets, except for Malaysia, where it affects stock returns positively. The possible reason for this positive impact is that EPU is not the leading factor reducing Malaysian stock returns; but, other forces, such as dependency on other countries' stock markets and global factors, may have a positive impact on stock returns (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013). Thus, the risk of simultaneous investment in Chinese and ASEAN5 stock markets, except Malaysia, is high. Further, the degree of this influence intensifies at extreme high/low intervals (positive/negative tails). The findings of this study have significant implications for investors, policymakers, market agents, and analysts of ASEAN5.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.179-211
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• 2023

This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and time preference. In contrast to previous studies that compared time preferences before and during the pandemic, this study estimates time preferences during the COVID-19 period using eight surveys conducted over two years. Additionally, a regression analysis was conducted on the number of new COVID-19 cases and the time elapsed since the outbreak, with estimated time preference as the dependent variable. Despite a small sample size, statistically significant results were obtained, showing that as the number of new cases increased, time preference also increased. However, this effect diminished over time and disappeared by the end of 2021 in Japan. This may be due to the public's growing familiarity with the risks of COVID-19 and the availability of vaccines and treatments. Despite a significant increase in new cases in 2022, time preference was lower than immediately after the outbreak, and this was reflected in private investments. Immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19, private investments decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, but the investments are returning in 2022 despite the surge in the number of cases. The trend of time preference explains the trend of Japanese private investments very well.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.213-242
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• 2023

This paper investigates whether the price of cryptocurrency is determined by the US dollar index, the price of investment assets such gold and oil, and the implied volatility of the KOSPI. Overall, the returns on cryptocurrencies are best predicted by the trading volume of the cryptocurrency both in-sample and out-of-sample. The estimates of gold and the dollar index are negative in the return prediction, though they are not significant. The dollar index, gold, and the cryptocurrencies seem to share characteristics which hedging instruments have in common. When investors take notice of the imminent market risks, they increase the demand for one of these assets and thereby increase the returns on the asset. The most notable result in the out-of-sample predictability is the predictability of the returns on value-weighted portfolio by gold. The empirical results show that the restricted model fails to encompass the unrestricted model. Therefore, the unrestricted model is significant in improving out-of-sample predictability of the portfolio returns using gold. From the empirical analyses, we can conclude that in-sample predictability cannot guarantee out-of-sample predictability and vice versa. This may shed light on the disparate results between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in a large body of previous literature.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.243-269
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• 2023

The multidimensional poverty index is an indicator system established for defining and evaluating poverty, to understand poverty in dimensions beyond just monetary scarcity. Based on income, education, health, living standards, and social dimensions, this article measures and analyzes the level of multidimensional poverty in Xinjiang using the AlkireFoster method, with cross-sectional data obtained from a 2022 survey. Probit model is constructed for regression analysis, further considering the impact of education on enhancing feasible capabilities and alleviating multidimensional poverty at the post-poverty alleviation era. The data shows that many people still face significant challenges from the perspective of multidimensional poverty; the decomposition results of each dimension show that education contributes more to the multidimensional poverty; the regression analysis results show that the higher the education level, the lower the multidimensional poverty; heterogeneity analysis revealed that the inhibitory effect of education on multidimensional poverty is greater for females than males, and the poverty reduction effect of education mainly concentrates on middle-aged and older individuals. This article is meaningful for exploring strategies to alleviate multidimensional poverty in ethnic minority regions in frontier areas in the new era, accelerating regional economic development, and achieving shared prosperity.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.3-35
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• 2024

This paper utilizes social network analysis to examine the structural characteristics and trade dynamics of the renewable energy (hydropower, wind energy, and solar energy) trade network within the RCEP region from 2011 to 2020. The findings reveal: (1) The renewable energy trade network within the RCEP exhibits dynamism, heterogeneity, and an uneven development. The solar energy network is the most balanced and stable, while the wind energy network lags and shows marked fluctuations, with the hydropower network falling between these two. This demonstrates the diversity of energy trade within the region. (2) China, Singapore, and Japan are identified as the key exporting and importing countries, with Vietnam showing substantial growth potential. Individual analyses shed light on the stark disparities in trade status among nations, reflecting the diverse roles and future potential of member countries. (3) The QAP regression analysis reveals a significant influence of environmental pressure, particularly carbon dioxide emissions, on the renewable energy trade network. This study contributes to promoting environmental sustainability and energy security in the RCEP region and provides empirical evidence for global renewable energy trade strategies.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.49-83
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• 2011

Ever since the UN Summit agreed on the MDGs in 2000, OECD/DAC member countries have taken poverty reduction as the main goal of their aid. To achieve this goal, all donors and recipient countries agreed on the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness in 2005. To monitor and evaluate the progress in the targets of the Declaration, all donors and recipients got together periodically, and the 2011 conference was held in Busan, Korea. As part of this effort, this paper aims to assess the extent to which DAC donors have allocated their aid to achieve the MDGs during the latest millennium era: 2005-2009. In addition, to compare the aid allocation performance between DAC members and non-DAC emerging donors, this paper also assesses the aid allocation performance of Korea (KOICA) for the same period. The analysis of this paper shows evidence contrary to the recent literature findings that donors tended to select, as their aid recipients, those countries that warranted more aid on account of their acute development needs, and good policies and institutions. The difference between the recent literature and this paper is attributed to the different sample periods and/or the weaknesses of the estimation models and methods adopted in the literature. This paper shows why a different estimation method is adopted and why its estimation results are more reliable and convincing. This paper also shows the difference between DAC and non-DAC donors in the aid allocation performance by analyzing aid allocations by the representative aid agency of Korea (KOICA), and recommends some policy measures to be taken by both DAC and non-DAC donors.

• The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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• no.15
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• pp.219-262
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• 2007

Business organization have developed in close association with the society afterward. Moreover, under capitalism business archives, though they are created in private sector, have started to have public characteristics and be used in public domain beyond internal use in business organization. Records and Archives management at a corporate level increasingly become indispensible. Business organization can use archive management to improve job efficiency and customer service and to facilitate legal matters, marketing, advertising, property management, personnel management and publicity. Additionally, They can secure corporate identity and social reliability as well as transparency in management. This is turn helps secure corporate competitiveness to play as a medium for creating new profit, which will enhance corporate brands. The records and Archives management, which recently kicks off among business organization, are to collect scattered archives and seek systemic management through archives management systems. This study present ways to collect archives scattered before archives management systems were adopted according to archives management. As a prior investigation, the scope and characteristics of business archives are defined. Visit to business organization to collect data and interview with officials responsible were carried out as a preliminary investigation to conduce acquisition policy. Based on the results of the investigation, acquisition policy of Meritz was conducted. into internal and external collection activities, event collection activities. Value appraisal and display appraisal of archives were established as a appraisal policy for efficient management and utilization of collected business archives. This study takes the case of Metitz Fire & Marine Insurance Co, Ltd (Meritz) as a example to present ways to manage business archives specifically.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.41-62
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• 2013

This paper, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in the financial systems of emerging markets mid-to long-term impact on how investigated. The accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets is a highly effective means to prevent the recurrence of another financial crisis as well as to minimizing risks of financial crisis. By examining the economic effects of excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on factors such as foreign liabilities, domestic consumption, domestic investment and economic growth from a mid-to long-term perspective, it reduced domestic consumption, but on the other hand, led to the expansion of the trade-related industries based on increase of exports. Although China implements a policy to substantially increase domestic investment, other emerging market countries have stagnant domestic investment activities due to excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Such fact signifies that excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves increases potential risks by depressing the mid-to long-term economic growth through the scale down of trade-related industries.